Election predictions?

Who do you think is going to win, and by what percentage and slice of the electoral college? How about the house and senate?

I'm predicting an Obama win, 271 to 267, unless Iowa stays blue which will make it 277 to 261. I predict Democrats will keep the Senate and may even increase their margin to 54 seats. I predict the house will stay under Republican control and the democrats will probably lose seats.

It doesn't really matter to me who wins in this election because I cannot vote for either candidate with a good conscience. Obama is going to radically transform this country even further (for the worst), and Romney has lied and misrepresented himself so many times that he is completely untrustworthy, and also, his religion will gain preeminence leading many astray.

Bonus question: If you could choose anyone to be president, who would it be and why?
SlipperyPete says...

I predict there will be a lot of evidence of ballot box stuffing, with exit polls not aligning themselves with vote counts. This will happen at a far higher rate in precincts with electronic voting tabulation.

I woke up this morning after a bad dream: that Romney had won. Not because more people voted for him, but because the systems that count ballots favour him and his politics.

ChaosEngine says...

>> ^Hybrid:

As a non-American, I and the rest of the world, want Obama to win. I simply do not understand how it is such a close call in America itself, yet the rest of the world clearly sees that Obama is the only logical vote...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-20008687


Amen, brother. Romney should put that in his campaign.

"Romney! Slightly more people in Pakistan reckon he'd be a better president than Obama"

@shinyblurry, you said that "Obama is going to radically transform this country even further (for the worst)". Exactly what "radical" transformations has the US undergone? From the outside, it looks pretty much as it always did (with marginally more humane healthcare).

KnivesOut says...

Well you know he's a secret gay muslim terrorist who is going to start governing the US under Sharia Law. I mean, he only had to fake 4 years as a "normal" president so he could get his second term, so that now he can REALLY fuck up this country by inviting his Al Qaeda mole operatives to attack the waffle house down the street.

Muslim.

9/11.>> ^ChaosEngine:

>> ^Hybrid:
As a non-American, I and the rest of the world, want Obama to win. I simply do not understand how it is such a close call in America itself, yet the rest of the world clearly sees that Obama is the only logical vote...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-20008687

Amen, brother. Romney should put that in his campaign.
"Romney! Slightly more people in Pakistan reckon he'd be a better president than Obama"
@shinyblurry, you said that "Obama is going to radically transform this country even further (for the worst)". Exactly what "radical" transformations has the US undergone? From the outside, it looks pretty much as it always did (with marginally more humane healthcare).

ChaosEngine says...

>> ^KnivesOut:

Well you know he's a secret gay muslim terrorist who is going to start governing the US under Sharia Law. I mean, he only had to fake 4 years as a "normal" president so he could get his second term, so that now he can REALLY fuck up this country by inviting his Al Qaeda mole operatives to attack the waffle house down the street.
Muslim.
9/11.


Really? Damn, that Obama is one cunning motherfucker. Good thing those Pakistanis are onto him.

gwiz665 says...

Obama will win, but it will be closer than we dirty ferrners think.

I don't really know who I'd prefer in the seat. My magic 8-ball says Gary Johnson of the people involved, because he's like Ron Paul but with a little less crazy. I think Obama will be fine too though.

NetRunner says...

Yesterday I'd have pegged it as 303 Obama, 235 Romney (the map being the same as 2008, but Romney picks up IN, FL, and NC).

Based on the returns I'm seeing as of 10:15pm, I'd say 319 Obama, Romney 219, with the map being 2008, but Romney gets IN, NC, and VA...and Obama holds Florida.

Right now I'm ready to make $10,000 bets Obama will win. Romney would need to run the table to just squeak a win at this point.

NetRunner says...

Inside election trivia, David Axelrod has won his moustache bet with Joe Scarborough. Obama has now carried all of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota.

Playing with an EV calculator, even if I give Romney all of Florida, Ohio, North Carolina AND Virginia, he still needs another state to get to 270. If Obama wins ANY of those states, he's getting a second term.

Oh, and I get the feeling the networks are just playing it safe on Ohio, all the outstanding votes are in blue counties, and Obama's in the lead.

hpqp says...

Obama ftw!

I love how Pakistan is the only foreign country with more Romney supporters. I would like to think it's because they're sick of Obama's droning (as I am), but I think it has more to do with how similar the Christian right-wing agenda is to that of radical Islam (Pakistan being the land of Islamic "purity" 'n all). Hate on gays and deprive them of rights? Check. Degrade women and deprive them of rights? Check. Trivialise rape or say you deserve it? Check. And to think that Obama's the secret Muslim, ha.

dystopianfuturetoday says...

Least stressful election night ever! Aside from Obama's swing state sweep, Elizabeth Warren was elected and some republican rape apologists got pink slips. Pot was legalized in Colorado and Washington. Gay Marriage in Maine and Maryland.

@dag, Nate was spot on, but the numbers suggest Obama picked up some extra electoral votes somewhere and I can't figure out where. What state did he nab from om-nom-Romneh? (edit: it appears he got all of the states right, but his prediction was 315 electoral votes, instead of 303 or 330. Why the discrepancy?)

What is this strange feeling overcoming me. Hope? Optimism?

Bachmann is still too close to call. Let's all pray to Cthulhu tonight to make her go away from our political system for good. (edit: ah fiddlesitcks
, she won)

I see the anti-government-handout right wing "libertarians" who were looking to get 5% of the vote so that they could get a government handout failed to get more than a single percentage point. Serves those hypocrits right.

Hybrid says...

Nate Silver on 'how he got it right'...


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