Can anyone figure the odds of one of these two men winning with a flush. My maths/statistics fail me in how to calculate such a probability.

Been a while since I've studied this stuff, but the way I'd do it is as follows:

Chance for a flush (I'll shorten this to %Flush) is:

%FlushHeart + %FlushDiamond + %FlushSpade + %FlushClub

%FlushSuit = %Atleast4OfSuit

Here we are gonna calculate the odds of drawing 4 out of 4 cards of the correct suit, and simply ignore the 5th card. If that card is always of the same suit, awesome, if it isn't, well that doesn't matter anyways, since there is one of each suit already in play. Since there are 5 positions that the don't care card could be in, we have to multiply the result by 5.

%Atleast4OfSuit = 5 * (#OfSuitInDeck / #OfCardsInDeck)*(#OfSuitInDeck-1 / #OfCardsInDeck-1)*(#OfSuitInDeck-2 / #OfCardsInDeck-2)*(#OfSuitInDeck-3 / #OfCardsInDeck-3)

Run that for each of the four suits in the deck, add the results, and you should have your answer. The above can of course be written more concisely using other notations, but a lot of people aren't familiar with those.

If we ignored the other players to make the calculation more concise, we would have:
4 * 5 * 12/48 * 11/47 * 10/46 * 9/45 = 237600/4669920 = 5.09% chance
If you want the exact odds for this paticular hand, it should be easy to adjust to fit.

Obviously, they shift drastically at the flop and every card afterwards.

Assuming that the little indicators are correct, they say they both have a 2% chance to win just before the flop. So, without doing any calculations I'd say that means there is a 96% chance of a tie in the situation... The 2% chance for either of them to win must include the chance of a flush AND the very slim chance of a royal flush.


...Awesome that the older guy told the kid to save his money and that you "can't win every hand"... Although it could just as easily come back to bit HIM on the ass.

I'm still shocked this is a "sport". Furthermore, A MILLION DOLLARS!!!!?????

Damn I wish I had that kind of money to blow on a card game.

Twenty-five-year-old already has enough money that he can lose a million dollars at a poker game?

So I had to look up both "bad beat" and "chop" to figure out what was being mentioned.

*money

Adding video to channels (Money) - requested by Trancecoach.

I would give the boy one million of my winnings just for karma..

Not that incredible, Zuckerburg was a billionaire at that point. Jobs had over $200M, at a time that in today's dollars would be close to $1B. Lots of people throw their money behind their children so they can achieve stuff instead of earning it themselves.

There's tons of people on the planet who have "money to burn". As well, if he's proven he's good at poker elsewhere, he could have financial backers as well.

Can anyone figure the odds of one of these two men winning with a flush

@modulous I believe that if they both had a flush that the spades flush would take it. I'm not 100% sure about how the rules apply to the world series of poker, but, traditionally, the suits do have value. I believe the order is:
Spades
Hearts
Diamonds
Clubs
The value is alphabetical.

But each individual had a 97.83%, or 49 in 50, chance of winning or chopping the pot—a 1 in 50 chance of losing.

In poker (except peculiar varieties) the suits are not ranked. They might use the ranks if they are drawing cards from a deck as way to determine who starts as dealer, for example, but not as part of hand strength. There is an alternative order, CHaSeD, which is ascending alphabetical order, but that is not standard in poker circles for any purpose.

Incidentally - if both men have the same pair as one another, then both men cannot get a flush.

Right, but this type of setup (both players have the same pair) there are two opportunities for it to happen every time, and they are equivalent in terms of calling it a bad beat. And besides, the question was "figure the odds of one of these two men winning with a flush", which is what I did rather than, say, 'What are the odds of Connor Drinan losing to a flush in this circumstance?'

Also, it's not possible to have flushes of different suits in Texas Hold 'em. There is only 9 cards available between any two players.

There is no such thing as random

Physics disagrees with you

What happens if they both still have a mere two aces by the end? Katz wins anyway 'cos Ace of Spades? That feels like a worse beat to me.

Suits are all equal in poker (in Hold'em anyway) - so they'd have chopped the pot (each taking half the chips)

Assuming he didn't bet what he can't afford to lose I don't feel too bad for the guy.

Why is there even talk of suits. Two players in holdem literally cannot have 2 different flushes. It's impossible.

*dead

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