I'm Saving up for an Autonomous Car
Nissan Pivo 3 concept car
I've never liked driving. I failed my driving test 3 times - passed on the fourth. I've had some fender benders - I have trouble concentrating on details like other cars and pedestrians. I used to be a pizza driver in the 80s - and on a delivery, I ran over a dog one dark snowy night. I hate driving.
But anyway … about those self-driving cars. They're coming. They really, really are. And when they do it's going to change society in ways we can't even imagine. Try a few of these scenarios on:
Short to medium-range commuter airlines will be disrupted because people will prefer to drive. Hop in your double bunkbed equipped van around bedtime in LA and tell your car to wake you up when you arrive at the hotel in Phoenix. A family of four will comfortably travel for 10 hours, asleep for the cost of a charged battery/ tank of gas - versus four expensive plane tickets costing many times that.
Dropping the kids off at school become not a chore at all. Pile them in, lock the doors and wave goodbye as the car safely shuttles them to campus.
Parking becomes a non-issue. Have your car drop you off in the city and go park somewhere sparse. Give it a call when you're ready to be picked up.
Not all disruptions will be positive. Expect suburban sprawl to increase. It's easier to live four hours from your job when you can sleep in your bunk on the way to work.
Expect taxi drivers to be out of a job.
This all seems like far-out science fiction, I know - until it isn't. The future has a way of sneaking up on us and the self-driving car is closer than we think.
Google has built on the work completed by DARPA. By most accounts, the Google car technology is mature enough to get you from point A to point B.
Recently Google lobbied Nevada to be the first state to change its road rules, allowing driverless cars to share the road with human operated ones. The legislation passed and it's expected that other states will soon follow suit.
There was initially an expectation that Google would partner with car companies in Detroit to get "Google drive" added as a feature to upcoming cars - this appears to have fallen through with Google reportedly being "unimpressed by Detroit's entrepenureal spirt". The plan now may be for a Google to create their own autonomous car, perhaps a "white label" overseas car that can be branded a Google vehicle - in a similar fashion to the Google branded Nexus phones.
However, the first commercially available autonomous car will not be from Google but Mercedes. The 2013 S Class Mercedes comes with a self-drive feature that is completely hands-free in heavy traffic. It's managed by a cluster of cameras and radar. The catch is that it only operates up to 25 miles an hour. Look for that speed to go up, year by year - and the availability to widen to cheaper cars each year as well.
The fact is that most major car makers are working on self-drive vehicles to some degree. To date though they've been tepid, half-measures. Self-parking features or collision avoidance. None of the traditional car makers are willing to upset the applecart. Cars are sold to be driven with feature lists designed to appeal to people who like the thrum of a turbo charger vibrating their ass in their faux-recaro seats. When traditional car companies do envision true self-driving vehicles, it's often as a far-off distant future LCD wet dream like this Toyota promotion.
It may take a "non-car" company like Google to disrupt these dinosaurs and show them that the future is closer than they think - no Tron-esque cyberscpapes required.
You've probably heard the urban myth about the old guy who buys a Winnebago. He drives it new off the lot, gets on the freeway and turns on the cruise control. He then gets up to go make a coffee - wrecks and presumably spills coffee all over himself. There's a reason that story has resonance; It makes sense. It's intuitive. Cruise control should let you get up and make yourself a cup of Joe. I'm saving up for it. I should be ready by 2020.
22 Comments
dagComment hidden because you are ignoring dag. (show it anyway)
I also take issue with driving as a manly activity. Jeremy Clarkson's a dipshit and not someone to emulate.
deathcowI love my Google driverless car, but it takes twice as long to get me home each night, as it drives me by a selection of stores that are relevant to my last 3 days of email. I knew I should have just ponied up the extra $2000 for the advertisement free edition. "DriveFree"
xxovercastxxLooks like we'll be bailing out the US auto industry again in another ten years.
ctrlaltbleach@dag
Couple things I was thinking about.
When it takes hold over most of the population I would expect mechanics and specifically oil and tire changers to be out of work as well. How easy would it be if they redesigned the engine a little so that an autonomous vehicle could pull up in a perfectly placed space where then a machine could change the oil, or tires, inspect and register the car or maybe even make a repair all according to its on-board computer.
kulpims@dag I wouldn't trust a car with my life just yet
dagComment hidden because you are ignoring dag. (show it anyway)
That's a good point. Places like Jiffylube already seem to be run by robots. You'd just need some universal standards - like the oil cap has to be certain size and painted orange - etc.
Industry standards are something that is lacking in the autonomous car world. Definitely needed for things like platooning and new machine readable road markers.
>> ^ctrlaltbleach:
@dag
Couple things I was thinking about.
When it takes hold over most of the population I would expect mechanics and specifically oil and tire changers to be out of work as well. How easy would it be if they redesigned the engine a little so that an autonomous vehicle could pull up in a perfectly placed space where then a machine could change the oil, or tires, inspect and register the car or maybe even make a repair all according to its on-board computer.
dagComment hidden because you are ignoring dag. (show it anyway)
It reminds me of the transition time when cars shared the road with horses. People definitely didn't trust cars then either and made them take all kinds of crazy precautions like honking three times at an intersection.>> ^kulpims:
@dag I wouldn't trust a car with my life just yet
AdrianBlackLaughing my ass off heartily @ "details like pedestrians"!
Rack up those points, Dag! (Psst...pregnant women are worth double.)
dagComment hidden because you are ignoring dag. (show it anyway)
I consider myself a deep thinker. I've discovered, through trial and error (mostly error), that this doesn't work so well with driving.>> ^AdrianBlack:
Laughing my ass off heartily @ "details like pedestrians"!
Rack up those points, Dag! (Psst...pregnant women are worth double.)
kymbosYou guys don't honk three times at intersections anymore?
I just can't keep up.
dagComment hidden because you are ignoring dag. (show it anyway)
It does make you wonder how it fits into Google's business model. I honestly think they're doing it because it's a hard engineering problem - and not for immediate financial gain in the short-run. But as a publicly traded company they will need to find a way to make it bring in the cash.
Beyond licensing the system to automakers, I could definitely see them using Google Places for Business to display "offers" to drivers as they pass by. Imagine how huge that would be. Drive by a TacoBell and you hear "Hit the 'accept' button to pull in for 99 cent tacos!" -- That would be a revolution in advertising - and goodbye billboards. >> ^deathcow:
I love my Google driverless car, but it takes twice as long to get me home each night, as it drives me by a selection of stores that are relevant to my last 3 days of email. I knew I should have just ponied up the extra $2000 for the advertisement free edition. "DriveFree"
radxAudi and VW could have started selling driverless cars as early as '09. Don't know about Mercedes Benz, my city is VW territory. The primary reason you can't buy one is the lack of a market for these cars. People are reluctant to hand over control to a machine, and safety regulations on their home market demand extensive testing under even the most unlikely conditions -- and rightfully so, if you don't mind me saying.
That said, when they let loose a driverless VW Golf convertible in the city of Hannover, it scared the living shit out of quite a few pedestrians and bikers.
dagComment hidden because you are ignoring dag. (show it anyway)
I think it's a case of people not realising the benefit until it's an actual working product. If you asked people in 1900 what they wanted in a vehicle they would probably say a faster horse that eats less.
I'd love to see a video of that Golf in Hannover - does it exist?
>> ^radx:
Audi and VW could have started selling driverless cars as early as '09. Don't know about Mercedes Benz, my city is VW territory. The primary reason you can't buy one is the lack of a market for these cars. People are reluctant to hand over control to a machine, and safety regulations on their home market demand extensive testing under even the most unlikely conditions -- and rightfully so, if you don't mind me saying.
That said, when they let loose a driverless VW Golf convertible in the city of Hannover, it scared the living shit out of quite a few pedestrians and bikers.
dagComment hidden because you are ignoring dag. (show it anyway)
Ahh. Here we go:
>> ^dag:
I think it's a case of people not realising the benefit until it's an actual working product. If you asked people in 1900 what they wanted in a vehicle they would probably say a faster horse that eats less.
I'd love to see a video of that Golf in Hannover - does it exist?
>> ^radx:
Audi and VW could have started selling driverless cars as early as '09. Don't know about Mercedes Benz, my city is VW territory. The primary reason you can't buy one is the lack of a market for these cars. People are reluctant to hand over control to a machine, and safety regulations on their home market demand extensive testing under even the most unlikely conditions -- and rightfully so, if you don't mind me saying.
That said, when they let loose a driverless VW Golf convertible in the city of Hannover, it scared the living shit out of quite a few pedestrians and bikers.
radxDon't think so. There are videos of Caroline and Leonie, a pair of VW Passat prototypes. The Golf convertible was part of a different program earlier this year, meant to test how people react to a driverless car in traffic. You might mistake a Passat for one of Google's spy mobiles, but you can hardly miss the lack of a driver in a convertible.
>> ^dag:
I'd love to see a video of that Golf in Hannover - does it exist?
ctrlaltbleach@dag
Couple of other things.
Could replace truck drivers as well at least in the easy to drive areas not sure how effective they would be on the trip to Alaska.
Delivery drivers and mail carriers heck could save the us mail department.
And you could replace trips to the grocery store entirely as well especially if they can use smaller cart sized vehicles that will deliver your groceries to your house. You could place an order online and according to your smart phone the store could know exactly when you arrive home to retrieve the groceries.
dagComment hidden because you are ignoring dag. (show it anyway)
Right - hadn't even touched on the shipping and delivery business. Massive disruption, massive unemployment probably - and then new business and innovation as it always happens. Pizza delivery would be a perfect case.>> ^ctrlaltbleach:
@dag
Couple of other things.
Could replace truck drivers as well at least in the easy to drive areas not sure how effective they would be on the trip to Alaska.
Delivery drivers and mail carriers heck could save the us mail department.
And you could replace trips to the grocery store entirely as well especially if they can use smaller cart sized vehicles that will deliver your groceries to your house. You could place an order online and according to your smart phone the store could know exactly when you arrive home to retrieve the groceries.
peggedbeaI'm holding out for teleport.
also, I just imagined my future grandkids being toted around this way and gave me shivers.
dagComment hidden because you are ignoring dag. (show it anyway)
It definitely seems like a scary robopocalypse moment - but trust will be earned over time.>> ^peggedbea:
I'm holding out for teleport.
also, I just imagined my future grandkids being toted around this way and gave me shivers.
ctrlaltbleachI just read about it at wiki and another point would be that auto insurance may not be needed at some point.
dagComment hidden because you are ignoring dag. (show it anyway)
It would definitely have to change. Who is at fault when two automated cars collide? I could see the liability shifting to the car makers. Collision insurance may be included in your warranty.>> ^ctrlaltbleach:
I just read about it at wiki and another point would be that auto insurance may not be needed at some point.
luxury_pieFuture Breaking News: Iran hacked US Auto-automobiles... ?
I think the 2-5 person transport vehicle is bullshit and must be developed into an alternative transport system with focus on sustainability. Maybe this is the step in the right direction, maybe it's just a way to sell cars to everybody, including drunk drivers, drug addicts, psychopaths and children.
Discuss...
Enable JavaScript to submit a comment.