*1sttube
*wtf

Adding video to channels (1sttube, Wtf) - requested by EDD.

Yay! Two local guys - Blowers from Tacoma and Tui from Woodinville!

call of the year? more like call of the decade.

I'd like to see Derren Brown do that

Predicting the *future makes everybody *happy

Adding video to channels (Future, Happy) - requested by demon_ix.

Didn't he say it "just missed the second deck"? Sorry, amazing but not 100% accurate. Gotta call it like I see it.

Tags for this video have been changed from 'mike, blowers, homerun, mariners' to 'mike blowers, Matt Tuiasosopo, homerun, seattle, mariners, toronto, blue jays' - edited by SlipperyPete

Whoa.

If I've learned anything from the movies about predictions like that it means that Mike Blowers has a time machine.

That's not a "prediction," that's what's called a random and baseless guess. Just like a "Nostradamus-like" random lottery winning, there are no underlying laws or wisdoms at work; there's no meaning to this event.

Choosing reality is always best for the common good. Society being mentally like a child has deep costs, and Maddow isn't helping.

...courtesy of one of joy fat pitchers and amazement's utter boredom's most reliable sources, baseball.

Eh, something to that effect.

Now Rachel, I hate to ask you this again, but do you regret using the word "Nostradamus"?

In other news, man wins lottery - is hailed as hero.

>> ^chilaxe:
That's not a "prediction," that's what's called a random and baseless guess. Just like a "Nostradamus-like" random lottery winning, there are no underlying laws or wisdoms at work; there's no meaning to this event.
Choosing reality is always best for the common good. Society being mentally like a child has deep costs, and Maddow isn't helping.


Who the fuck cares. Despite knowing that love is a series of chemical reactions from my brain to my penis, I love it.

I mean... I totally wasn't turned on by this video.

"Who the fuck cares. Despite knowing that love is a series of chemical reactions from my brain to my penis, I love it.

I mean... I totally wasn't turned on by this video."

We care about it because it's a 'pretty lie,' like Creationism. Creationism makes us 'feel good' even though it's anti-intellectual, but letting the masses have their way and persist with pretty illusions has nothing to do with progressive civilization and makes us all dumber.

>> ^chilaxe:
That's not a "prediction," that's what's called a random and baseless guess. Just like a "Nostradamus-like" random lottery winning, there are no underlying laws or wisdoms at work; there's no meaning to this event.
Choosing reality is always best for the common good. Society being mentally like a child has deep costs, and Maddow isn't helping.


No laws or wisdom. Except a time machine. He's from the future!! Isn't that clear?

>> ^chilaxe:
That's not a "prediction," that's what's called a random and baseless guess.


Not in the least. That wasn't a random baseless guess that was the educated guess of a life long fan of the sport who knows the players well. Fast ball? Pitcher is a fast ball fan. First game and first home run? Perhaps in the minors he held a record, perhaps the vast majority hit the 2nd deck. Certain part of the field? Wonder what the wind direction was that day?


So certainly it wasn't a psychic prediction (not that they don't happen. I've had them myself.) It also wasn't some baseless guess. It was a solid prediction by someone who knows the players and knows the game. Still a big coincidence to be sure, but not impossible.

^Yes, it's not 100% random, but as long as it's mostly random (a big coincidence), all we're excited about is luck and our suspended disbelief that he has special powers ('like Nostadramus').

>> ^chilaxe:
We care about it because it's a 'pretty lie,' like Creationism. Creationism makes us 'feel good' even though it's anti-intellectual, but letting the masses have their way and persist with pretty illusions has nothing to do with progressive civilization and makes us all dumber.


Um, chilaxe, you need to... chilaxe. Having a laugh about somebody's wild guess (though an educated guess in many respects) coming true is not going to contribute to a significant rise in magical thinking in society. At least, not in anybody who isn't deeply into magical thinking to begin with.

Chilaxe, I was going to criticize you for being to negative. I mean really, this is the sift, nobody here actually believes in psychic powers (like nostradamus) but then I read Xaielao's comment. So nevermind!

Since when did Maddow cared about Baseball? I thought that was Olbermann's schtick.

Besides, I think this Mike Blowers guy is the next Pete Rose. I wonder how much money he had on the game to make that happen.

>> ^chilaxe:
That's not a "prediction," that's what's called a random and baseless guess. Just like a "Nostradamus-like" random lottery winning, there are no underlying laws or wisdoms at work; there's no meaning to this event.
Choosing reality is always best for the common good. Society being mentally like a child has deep costs, and Maddow isn't helping.


Wait a minute guys, chilaxe has said something really important there.

This isn't a REAL prediction? I feel cheated.

Up next -- chilaxe breaks into people's homes and grimly informs their children that there is no Santa Claus.

>> ^MaxWilder:

Um, chilaxe, you need to... chilaxe. Having a laugh about somebody's wild guess (though an educated guess in many respects) coming true is not going to contribute to a significant rise in magical thinking in society. At least, not in anybody who isn't deeply into magical thinking to begin with.


Maybe the oversensitivity to magical thinking is warranted considering the volume of noise from the Glenn Beck "revolution" in recent weeks.

80-something mph = failball, not fastball.

Well, let's see if we can do the math... like a Drake's equation of baseball:

[typical at-bats per-game: 3] x [chance of hitting in any one at-bat: Tuiasasopo's AVG is ca 0.2] x [chance a Tui hit will be a homerun: ca 0.08 (1/12, this is the most arguable stat, he's still green, and before this HR, the chance would've been 0!)] x [chance the count will be 3-1 when you go for it: I dunno, but there are only 7 possible counts and THIS is a hitter's count: if you're gonna go for it this would be a favorable count to do it: ca. 0.2] x [chance it'll go left field: pretty good if you're a right-handed hitter: but to be conservative, 0.5] x [chance it'll go to the second deck: dunno, but it didn't fulfill this particular part of the prophecy, so let's call it a wash: 1] = 0.0048, half a percent.

Blowers had about a 1/200 chance of getting his prediction right! Not bad.
But how many games did she say he's called?

stats from: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tuiasma01.shtml

>> ^chilaxe:
That's not a "prediction," that's what's called a random and baseless guess. Just like a "Nostradamus-like" random lottery winning, there are no underlying laws or wisdoms at work; there's no meaning to this event.

Except that there was. Baseball isn't as much a game of chance as you might suppose. He didn't lay out all the work he did to come to that summation, but he did give some clues. He knew the handedness of the pitcher and the batter, which tends to yield hits going in certain locations. He knew that if it happened, it would be when the batter was a little more relaxed (i.e., not at his first at-bat). In short, he'd observed hundreds of thousands of pitches in the course of a lifetime, and knowing human nature, made what seemed to be a 'random and baseless guess', when in fact, there was a certain order in all that chaos. Clearly some of it was joshing around, and that part was coincidental, but he did call the right player on the right day, having had no foreknowledge of his major league track record. That's pretty impressive.

Anyone know the stats on the number of players who hit a home run during their first game?