What to Look for on Election Night
I've been thinking that we'll be able to know the ultimate result of this race based entirely on east-coast swing states.
Let's start with a very conservative map:
This highlights virtually every state that is still being contested in one way or another. Obama has an edge even on this map, leading McCain by 97 EV's.
If McCain wins Pennsylvania, not only will it be a huge upset, with the pollster.com average showing Obama up by 12 there, it will mean that there was some sort of massive national trend that isn't being measured by polls (or media, or the McCain campaign).
Most likely, a win in a place like Pennsylvania will mean Ohio, North Carolina, Indiana, Georgia, Montana, North Dakota, and Missouri are in the McCain column.
Our map would then look like this:
In this scenario, either candidate would need to win Florida + one other state, or all 4 non-Florida toss-ups. Obama has sizable leads in Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia, and narrow leads in Florida and Nevada.
We'll only be waiting for Nevada results if Florida goes for McCain (with a recount), and Virginia and New Hampshire go for Obama.
More likely than not, Obama will carry Pennsylvania. Both Kerry and Gore won this state, and the worst poll for Obama here in a month had him up 7 (and that was from a Republican pollster). The last reputable poll that showed McCain in the lead here was from April, during the ugliest point in the primary.
If Obama carries Pennsylvania, he will be at 260 votes, without winning any other swing state:
At this point, the fat lady is clearing her throat for McCain. In order for McCain to win from this map, he must essentially run the table. He can't win if any of Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Georgia or Missouri go to Obama. Even if he wins every single one of those (and he's behind in all of them except Georgia and Indiana), he must still win two of Montana, North Dakota, New Hampshire and Nevada, and he's trailing in all of them except Montana.
If Obama wins Virginia, while holding Pennsylvania, the fat lady will start singing: Obama has won the presidency, baring some upset in New Mexico -- and we're safe from that if Obama carries New Hampshire.
From here on out, it's all about how much of a landslide it is for Obama.
If he carries Ohio or Florida, it's going to be a 300+ EV victory.
If he carries Ohio and Florida, plus winning North Carolina it's going to be 350+.
If he wins every state he's got a lead in (no matter how small), the map looks like this:
If Obama outperforms the polls in any significant sense, he'll likely pick up Montana, Indiana and Georgia too, putting us at 396 EV's for Obama.
So basically, here's what states to watch for on election night:
Pennsylvania
Virginia
Ohio
Florida
North Carolina
Georgia
That's in order of how likely Obama was to win the state. All he needs is the first two, and it's pretty much curtains for McCain. The rest are just a meter of how big the margin of victory is.
If Obama carries them all, it's going to be a blowout like Clinton vs. Dole in 1996.
Let's start with a very conservative map:
This highlights virtually every state that is still being contested in one way or another. Obama has an edge even on this map, leading McCain by 97 EV's.
If McCain wins Pennsylvania, not only will it be a huge upset, with the pollster.com average showing Obama up by 12 there, it will mean that there was some sort of massive national trend that isn't being measured by polls (or media, or the McCain campaign).
Most likely, a win in a place like Pennsylvania will mean Ohio, North Carolina, Indiana, Georgia, Montana, North Dakota, and Missouri are in the McCain column.
Our map would then look like this:
In this scenario, either candidate would need to win Florida + one other state, or all 4 non-Florida toss-ups. Obama has sizable leads in Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia, and narrow leads in Florida and Nevada.
We'll only be waiting for Nevada results if Florida goes for McCain (with a recount), and Virginia and New Hampshire go for Obama.
More likely than not, Obama will carry Pennsylvania. Both Kerry and Gore won this state, and the worst poll for Obama here in a month had him up 7 (and that was from a Republican pollster). The last reputable poll that showed McCain in the lead here was from April, during the ugliest point in the primary.
If Obama carries Pennsylvania, he will be at 260 votes, without winning any other swing state:
At this point, the fat lady is clearing her throat for McCain. In order for McCain to win from this map, he must essentially run the table. He can't win if any of Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Georgia or Missouri go to Obama. Even if he wins every single one of those (and he's behind in all of them except Georgia and Indiana), he must still win two of Montana, North Dakota, New Hampshire and Nevada, and he's trailing in all of them except Montana.
If Obama wins Virginia, while holding Pennsylvania, the fat lady will start singing: Obama has won the presidency, baring some upset in New Mexico -- and we're safe from that if Obama carries New Hampshire.
From here on out, it's all about how much of a landslide it is for Obama.
If he carries Ohio or Florida, it's going to be a 300+ EV victory.
If he carries Ohio and Florida, plus winning North Carolina it's going to be 350+.
If he wins every state he's got a lead in (no matter how small), the map looks like this:
If Obama outperforms the polls in any significant sense, he'll likely pick up Montana, Indiana and Georgia too, putting us at 396 EV's for Obama.
So basically, here's what states to watch for on election night:
Pennsylvania
Virginia
Ohio
Florida
North Carolina
Georgia
That's in order of how likely Obama was to win the state. All he needs is the first two, and it's pretty much curtains for McCain. The rest are just a meter of how big the margin of victory is.
If Obama carries them all, it's going to be a blowout like Clinton vs. Dole in 1996.
10 Comments
joedirtEveryone is assuming that polling matter. It does not matter. They have SOOOO many excuses this year of why the polling was wrong. Racism, Bradley effect, disgruntled Hillary supporters, Syrian attacks... etc.
You have to consider that Rove and his posse are targeting a few states, just like they did in FL00 and OH04. You'd have to be crazy to not realize they padded their vote in FL00 (bad punchcard stock, voter purges, etc) and OH04 (multiple methods like voting machine allocations, provisional ballots, punchcard rotation, DHS fake alerts, stickered ballots).
They will apply many of these techniques in places like PA, maybe CO, etc.
Here is what the election night map will look like just so you aren't surprised:
http://tinyurl.com/6alna7
And anyone who points to polling doesn't know what happened in Ohio and isn't paying attention to the HUGE lines that will be in PA and touchscreen counties in OH and just about every state on election day.
nibiyabi*Quality analysis. Do you read http://www.fivethirtyeight.com by chance?
siftbotAwarding NetRunner with one star point for this contribution to Sift Talk - declared quality by nibiyabi.
NetRunnerYes, I read 538. He's too rosy about things for my taste -- he's got 375 as the most likely Obama EV count, with 364 as the second most likely (I'm guessing that's with/without Indiana).
JD, I assume you meant to give Obama Virginia, not North Carolina.
By no means do I think this race is over, but by no means do I think voting is all a show put on by Republicans, who can make the results look however they want it to.
We'll be putting that to the test next Tuesday I suppose.
One more reason why I say this race is a referendum on whether democracy still exists in this country.
Obama's won this election in terms of making his case, and garnering enough support with the people. Just remains to be seen whether the magical voting fairies lose 10% of Obama's vote.
FjnbkI'll be so glad if I can go to bed at a normal time on Election Night.
Farhad2000I wish more Americans followed the elections like they follow the NFL.
NordlichReiterfuck the NFL
I hate watching TV, only when I leave it on to drown out the noise of my wife playing world of warcraft... or worse silent hill homecoming. I still wear earplugs too!
joedirtI meant just what I put. NC is not as corrupt in terms of election fraud, and audits. NC will go to Obama, VA is for haters. VA is critical for McCain. Without VA, McCain loses. (Hopefully that will be announced early on).
maatcVery interesting. From overseas it all looks much more confusing and stuff like this really makes the difference, so thanks for that!
All I am worried about at the moment is McCain announcing the succesful arrest of Bin Laden and tying it to his efforts somehow.
joedirtNov 1st 2004. The day before the last Presidential election.
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3216/2984351181_a6306c100a.jpg
Any idiots pointing to 538 had better hope for some miracle where there are no lines and all those people polled can magically vote. There will be no lines in the rural places that elected Bush in 2004.
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