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Tesla Model S driver sleeping at the wheel on Autopilot

ChaosEngine says...

Actually, I would say I have a pretty good understanding of machine learning. I'm a software developer and while I don't work on machine learning day-to-day, I've certainly read a good deal about it.

As I've already said, Tesla's solution is not autonomous driving, completely agree on that (which is why I said the video is probably fake or the driver was just messing with people).

A stock market simulator is a different problem. It's trying to predict trends in an inherently chaotic system.

A self-driving car doesn't have to have perfect prediction, it can be reactive as well as predictive. Again, the point is not whether self-driving cars can be perfect. They don't have to be, they just have to be as good or better than the average human driver and frankly, that's a pretty low bar.

That said, I don't believe the first wave of self-driving vehicles will be passenger cars. It's far more likely to be freight (specifically small freight, i.e. courier vans).

I guess we'll see what happens.

RedSky said:

@ChaosEngine

I'm not sure you understand what machine learning is. As I said, the trigger for your child.runsInFront() is based on numerical inputs from sensors that is fed into a formula with certain parameters and coefficients. This has been optimized from many hours of driving data but ultimately it's not able to predict novel events as it can only optimize off existing data. There is a base level of error from bias-variance tradeoff to any model that you cannot avoid. It's not simply a matter of logging enough hours of driving. If that base error level is not low enough, then autonomous cars may never be deemed reliable to be unsupervised.

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bias-variance_tradeoff
Or specifically: http://scott.fortmann-roe.com/docs/docs/BiasVariance/biasvariance.png

It's the same reason that a stock market simulator using the same method (but different inputs) is not accurate. The difference would be that while 55% correct for the stock market may be sufficiently accurate and useful to be profitable, a driving algorithm needs to be near perfect. It's true that a sensor reaction time to someone braking unexpectedly may be much better than a human's and prevent a crash, so yes in certain cases autonomous driving will be safer but because of exceptional cases, but it may never be truly hands-off and you may always need to be ready to intervene, just like how Tesla works today (and why on a regulatory level it passed muster).

The combination of Google hyping its project and poor understanding of math or machine learning is why news reports just parrot Google's reliability numbers. Tesla also, has managed to convince many people that it already offers autonomous driving, but the auto-steer / cruise and changing lanes tech has existed for around a decade. Volvo, Mercedes and Audi all have similar features. There is a tendency to treat this technology as magical or inevitable when there are some unavoidable limitations behind it that may never be surmounted.

Payback (Member Profile)

siftbot says...

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3 Seconds to Warn Passengers of an Impending Crash at 110km

3 Seconds to Warn Passengers of an Impending Crash at 110km

Why Flying is So Expensive

oritteropo says...

Perhaps it would have been better to say that fuel isn't the only reason. The Airbus A320 in this example has roughly 55% better fuel efficiency than a pre oil crisis Boeing 707, although as Jimbo's big bag'o'trivia points out, that's barely better than the 1950s era prop planes like the Douglas DC-7.

Better automation has also allowed the A320 to reduce the staffing requirements, the 707 required 3 or 4 crew to operate the aircraft, but the A320 only requires 2. The DC-7 also requires 3 crew, but only seats half the passengers (doubling the flight crew costs per passenger).

Greater competition is probably a larger factor. Talking about airline profitability and competition, Warren Buffett joked that had a farsighted capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk for the Wright Brothers' first flight, he would have done his successors a huge favor by shooting Orville down.

transmorpher said:

I'm confused. He starts with saying that fuel is not the reason why flying costs a lot, and then he concludes with: "flying is getting cheaper because airplanes are more fuel efficient"

Why Flying is So Expensive

ChaosEngine says...

Didn't think it was that confusing. Back in the day, planes used way more fuel, so it was a large percentage of the ticket cost.

These days, they use much less fuel per passenger, so the cost of flying has gone down.

His whole point is that flying doesn't actually cost that much these days. In addition to increased fuel efficiency, low-cost carriers have driven prices down to the point where there's almost no margin on flights; hence, why so many airlines are struggling these days.

transmorpher said:

I'm confused. He starts with saying that fuel is not the reason why flying costs a lot, and then he concludes with: "flying is getting cheaper because airplanes are more fuel efficient"

Why You Should NEVER Fly American Airlines

bcglorf says...

Here's probably the real reason Cenk got booted, a clip of him shouting down the staff as one of the other customers in line is trying tell Cenk to back off.

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x43at5z

I find this unsurprising on all levels. The airlines care about profits, and the passengers are just cargo to them so the shoddy situation isn't uncommon. Also, Cenk always seems to have this entitled and enraged attitude in ever video I see him in, so him going ballistic at everyone is unsurprising. Him getting booted from the flight is not surprising, but given how little I think of Cenk's behaviour, it's oddly satisfying,

Esoog said:

Here is a link to the other video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1EwqVZLB2E

I really don't like this guy's attitude. You can't just demand another plane show up, they snap their fingers, and it happens. It takes time, and this prick thinks his mob mentality was helping the situation.

Why You Should NEVER Fly American Airlines

jmd says...

Uhmm, this isn't new. For decades now they have been this bad. A week doesn't go by that something isn't in the news about them screwing over passengers. Unfortunately the sheep keep them in business. If it isn't them getting kicked off, they don't care.

Why Are Airplane Engines So Big?

Ickster says...

The title's a little strange to me; given the massive weight of a loaded passenger plane and the altitude and speeds those things attain, I'm always amazed that the engines are as *small* as they are.

Psycho-Bully Toronto Cop Goes "Off The Chart Ballistic".

bcglorf says...

From what he had said, it was the driver that refused to show their papers. In that case the driver was lucky to still be in the car the whole time.

The guy filming from the passenger side maybe should have been pulled out when he claimed to be a "peace officer". His name is Robert Menard, and the legal system is pretty familiar with his scamming other people already.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/judges-scathing-ruling-against-alberta-freeman-could-signal-clampdown-on-anti-government-movement

The article above notes "Freemen have been trying to form their own “corps of peace officers.” In addition to Menard being mentioned by name in the article, his efforts to form his own police force is further documented by himself in the youtube channel this video comes from.

newtboy said:

If the guy filming was the one driving, you would have a point, but he wasn't.
Because he's just a passenger, does the law in Canada still require him to show his papers?
More important, does the law require him to leave the car and open himself up to abuse, arrest, search, etc because an officer directed him to?

Psycho-Bully Toronto Cop Goes "Off The Chart Ballistic".

newtboy says...

If the guy filming was the one driving, you would have a point, but he wasn't.
Because he's just a passenger, does the law in Canada still require him to show his papers?
More important, does the law require him to leave the car and open himself up to abuse, arrest, search, etc because an officer directed him to?

bcglorf said:

The camera holding guy even declares in the video that the driver had identified himself, but the office insisted on seeing papers. He also states he has that on video, but from his youtube channel he never uploaded that.

If you are driving on the road, the police can demand to see proof that you can legally drive(your driver's license) and proof your vehicle is insured/registered(your registration). This is not onerous or evil. Vehicle accidents are the number 1 cause of premature death in our country.

Making sure that people that are driving on them know what they are doing and have at least some degree of insurance in case of an accident is a social contract the public has readily agreed to. The guy recording here, from his other youtube clips, is a 'freemen' and thus believes that he isn't bound by the social contract the rest of us have agreed to. That's why we hire police officers, so they can explain to the camera dude that he IS in fact bound by our social contract if he expects drive on our roads. The police are allowed to use force to put him in front of judge if necessary.

The only thing I see wrong in the video is a guy who believes the law doesn't apply to him.

Why Uber Is Terrible - Cracked Explains

Payback says...

Another issue... Uber is a taxi dispatching service for unregulated "gypsy" taxi drivers. It is NOT a "ride sharing" service.

Why?

A ride sharing service would be the Uber driver broadcasting out "I'm downtown, and I'm heading to the airport, anyone need a ride?" and if no one takes him up on it, and he GOES THERE ANYWAY BECAUSE HE HAD TO, he's ride sharing.

If he's just sitting around, waiting for a passenger to broadcast "I'm downtown and need to get to the airport, come get me." then he's a taxi.

Uber doesn't need to be regulated, but they SHOULD only deal with properly licensed, insured, and legal transportation providers. Even if that's just a one-man, one-car business.

Strangers Lift Van Off Trapped Woman



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