He went with the odds. Lost. Not a dumb move, necessarily. Just unlucky. Still got $200 bucks out of it, which is more than all the other non-winners got.

>> ^Fletch:

He went with the odds. Lost. Not a dumb move, necessarily. Just unlucky. Still got $200 bucks out of it, which is more than all the other non-winners got.


Well, given that the two cars are worth around 50k each, and only 100 tickets were given out in total, the expected value was at least a grand. So yeah, not the best decision on his part

Oh! I stand corrected. I thought there were a LOT more tickets than that given out. My bust for assuming. Then, yeah... boner move. >> ^eventualentropy:

>> ^Fletch:
He went with the odds. Lost. Not a dumb move, necessarily. Just unlucky. Still got $200 bucks out of it, which is more than all the other non-winners got.

Well, given that the two cars are worth around 50k each, and only 100 tickets were given out in total, the expected value was at least a grand. So yeah, not the best decision on his part

> Well, given that the two cars are worth around 50k each, and only 100 tickets were given out in total,
> the expected value was at least a grand. So yeah, not the best decision on his part


MORBO VOICE:
RAFFLES DO NOT WORK THAT WAY!

@eventualentropy

BTW, I calculated "expected value, E" for both the $200 ticket and each free ticket using your link. Since the "expected value of the profit resulting from an X dollar bet on a single number is the sum of potential net loss times the probability of losing and potential net gain times the probability of winning" (not an exact quote), I calculated E = $51 for the $200 dollar ticket, and E = $250 for each free ticket. Barring some gross conceptual error on my part (likely), the lucky winners' ticket was worth less after he paid for it, and the seller sold it for less than its expected value. However, as soon as he sold it, its expected value plummeted. ????

@eventualentropy

Never mind. Recalculated everything for 100 tickets, and 2 chances in 100 each would win. Got E = $804 for the $200 ticket, and E = $1000 for each free ticket (as you stated). Makes much more sense than my first attempt.

So wait, seemed a little awkward there, was there some sort of implication that buying the ticket was somehow frowned upon when people started yelling it? I mean, fuck them, the guy sold the ticket free will... like the announcer said, get off the stage.

>> ^ponceleon:

So wait, seemed a little awkward there, was there some sort of implication that buying the ticket was somehow frowned upon when people started yelling it? I mean, fuck them, the guy sold the ticket free will... like the announcer said, get off the stage.


It seems like everybody was hostile for him getting the ticket how he did.. but the guy on stage even basically says at one point "Don't sell them for less then $1100".

I guess it was frowned upon, but allowed.

Damn. That would be amazing.

You have to be 18 to be eligible to win, and it looks like the guy who sold the ticket could possibly be under 18. There were three ways to get a ticket, win a tournament, win one in a quick draw event or get lucky and catch one of the last few that they wrap up in shirts and toss out. If he's under 18, the only way he could have gotten a ticked was to have caught a shirt with a ticket.

>> ^ponceleon:

So wait, seemed a little awkward there, was there some sort of implication that buying the ticket was somehow frowned upon when people started yelling it? I mean, fuck them, the guy sold the ticket free will... like the announcer said, get off the stage.


I don't think so, I think people were just blown away and wanted to share with the guys on stage what had happened.

> I don't think so, I think people were just blown away
> and wanted to share with the guys on stage what had happened.

Right, but then consider that immediately afterwards the ticket buyer was torn to shreds by an angry mob.

People still play that Quake game?