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*beg you creationist fecalphiliacs.

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*promote might work better, gwizinator.

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This guy must've had a violent aneurysm in the eye when he watched that Star Trek episode with the Binars.

He's gunning after Pascal's wager - it's not so much a chance, as an option. OMGWTFBQQ. Yeah, live with it.

mmm tangerine thong man = upvote

the first part with the doors is the dumbest thing i have ever heard of. Its 50/50. There are 2 choices left and you get to pick 1. 1/2=50%

^ I suggest you watch this
http://www.videosift.com/video/The-Monty-Hall-Problem

>> ^serosmeg:
the first part with the doors is the dumbest thing i have ever heard of. Its 50/50. There are 2 choices left and you get to pick 1. 1/2=50%


Your first choice is 1 in 3, meaning that there is a 66% chance that you will choose the wrong one.

So you have a 66% chance that one of the doors you didn't choose is the correct door. The host opens a door that is not the correct door, eliminating that one from the possibilities.

The elimination does not affect your original choice though, so you are still left with a 33% chance that you originally chose the correct door, leaving a 66% chance that the remaining closed door is the correct one.

>> ^eric3579:
^ I suggest you watch this
http://www.videosift.com/video/The-Monty-Hall-Problem


Bah, you beat me by 26 seconds. =P

it's 50/50
it's not that hard.

>> ^serosmeg:
it's 50/50
it's not that hard.


I have two questions for you.

1. Would you agree that your original choice only has a 1/3 chance of being correct?

2. Do you think that opening an empty door afterward changes the likelihood of your first choice being correct?

No matter how big the probability of winning a car is on Monty Hall's Show, it's bigger on Oprah's.

Also see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Why_the_probability_is_not_1.2F2

I really enjoy this guy, but I wish he was less monotone. My ADD is going to make me watch "cats falling off things" for the next 20 minutes, in revenge.

I've long struggled to understand the Monty Hall problem, and I'm no closer to doing so.

Love this guy.

>> ^Xax:
I've long struggled to understand the Monty Hall problem, and I'm no closer to doing so.


I just now understood it, maybe I can explain while it's fresh in my mind. The crux is that the host always reveals the door with the goat of the remaining two doors. He is removing a "wrong" door and leaving a door with an added probability of being the right one. The reason "your" door does not "gain" "rightness" is because you chose it in the beginning, without the added information of which one is *not* the right door.

This is the easiest way I can think of to describe it:

Your first guess will be wrong most of the time, because you only have a 1 in 3 chance of being right. So basically, just assume your first guess is wrong.

So if you assume your first guess was wrong, and one of the other doors is ruled out, you only have one choice left!