Not yet a member? No problem!
Sign-up just takes a second.
Forgot your password?
Recover it now.
Check your email for a verification code and enter it below.Don't close this box or you must fill out this form again.
Already signed up?
Log in now.
Forgot your password?
Recover it now.
Not yet a member? No problem!
Sign-up just takes a second.
Remember your password?
Log in now.
The Monty Hall Problem
Ok, I thought about this long and hard. Originally I thought that the answer was that there is no difference between switching or not. I was wrong, and here is how I now understand it.
First you have to understand the question:
"is it better to switch, or does it not make a difference if you switch"
Then you have to understand the situation:
2 Stages
Stage one: 33% chance of picking correctly
Stage two: 50% chance of picking correctly
Then you have to understand that little tiny bit of often overlooked information, the key to understanding the answer:
The door you picked in stage one is probably wrong. You know this because the probability is 33% during stage one. If you don't understand this key point re-read it until it has sunk in. You probably CHOSE WRONG. This is key.
Since you are in stage two, here is your choice:
- stick with the door you have picked (which is probably wrong)
- switch to the other door