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Real Time with Bill Maher: Frank Luntz 7/15/16

Babymech says...

I don't think we can pretend that either of them was trying 100% to engage in serious discussion. Nobody who answers a question with "my whole life has been spent out with the American people, while you're telling jokes" is committed to serious debate, unless the topic of the debate is which countries Frank has lived in.

Still, Luntz was right on one of the few facts they disagreed on - "Reagan's last two Gallup job approval ratings before he left office were 57% in mid-November and 63% in December 1988.

The highest job approval rating of the Reagan administration was 68% -- reached twice, in May 1981 and as previously indicated, in May 1986. As noted, the low point was 35% in January 1983."

Mordhaus (Member Profile)

Last Week Tonight with John Oliver: Retirement Plans

RedSky says...

Good point. I admit I'm mostly quoting The Economist's recent article on it, since I haven't compared them myself:

"Meanwhile, fees as a percentage of assets under management have dropped from 0.68% in 1983 to 0.12% today (see chart). This compares with an industry average of 0.61% (or 0.77%, when excluding Vanguard itself). Fees on its passive products, at 0.08% a year, are less than half the average for the industry of 0.18%. Its actively managed products are even more keenly priced, at 0.17% compared with an average of 0.78%."

http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21700401-vanguard-has-radically-changed-money-management-being-boring-and-cheap-index-we

Also: http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21700390-rise-low-cost-managers-vanguard-should-be-celebrated-slow-motion-revolution

Totally agree with you on diversifying across index funds (as safe as fund managers are in theory compared to other financial institutions, I would never assume any financial company is 'safe') and of course staying under $250K FDIC insurance level.

heropsycho said:

In fairness, Vanguard funds are not almost always the lowest. I'd say they often are, but Fidelity beats them enough of the time that it's close between them.

With that said, I am in agreement with you that I would prefer Vanguard because of their ownership model. But as I accrue assets in my IRA's, I may open IRAs with Fidelity as well, as each of your retirement accounts' balances are ensured per account for up to $250,000. I would trust Fidelity as well, so I might diversify my index funds between fidelity and Vanguard for the insurance and other reasons.

Trumps Crazy CNN Interview about Mexican Judge

newtboy says...

I'm guessing that's with no opposition he only got 62% of the black (republican) vote and 78% of the Guatemalan (republican) vote....which I'm also pretty damn sure you or they just made up because the simply don't do exit polls for Guatemalan/Americans.

Um....yeah...Democrats didn't win the next 10 elections after 68 huh? I guess Carter wasn't elected in 76 then. Also, you know that 68 wasn't 60 years ago, right....so your " The liberals collapse every 60 years." hypothesis means they have 12 years to go before collapsing....unlike the right which has already collapsed, nominating one of the rich assholes that's proud to exclaim that he buys politicians to rig the law for his own benefit because they hate that politicians are bought by rich assholes that rig the system for their own benefit, and also the guy who LITTERALLY wrote the book on how to succeed by lying because they want someone honest?!? Yeah, brilliant strategy.

It will be hilarious to see the contest between two candidates that are tied for the least trusted, most hated candidates ever, both of which will be under indictment come election time, Trump for massive theft by frauds, Clinton for inappropriate emails (and for being a Clinton, let's be real). Hilarious, but disastrous for us, no one wins with that contest.

shang said:

Hell the exit poll in my town was awesome Trump got 62% black vote , 78% Guatemalan vote (large population)


In 1968 the time called "white riot" but whites and blacks rioted and Democrat convention shut down and Democrats lost the next 10 elections.
Proof that history has repeated itself. The liberals collapse every 60 years.

nock (Member Profile)

siftbot says...

Your video, German Windows Are Amazing, has made it into the Top 15 New Videos listing. Congratulations on your achievement. For your contribution you have been awarded 1 Power Point.

This achievement has earned you your "Pop Star" Level 68 Badge!

Coulter predicts Trump's rise to much laughter

ChaosEngine says...

The HuffPo link is pretty much just the same list of polls on the real clear politics site.

And there 6 polls out of 68 that show Trump winning, and 3 of those are within the margin of error.

If we removed the polls where the result is within the MoE, Clinton wins 48 out of 51 polls.

here's the spreadsheet I copied the data into
https://www.dropbox.com/s/w54ueevd5y658ld/polls.xlsx?dl=0

newtboy said:

OK....I don't have much faith in the HuffPo to be unbiased...so I checked the other link, and the second poll they list has Trump winning by 2%. Scrolling down, a number of polls have Trump winning, and a significantly larger number have them statistically tied when you count the margin of error....but the numbers are not what I thought, which was a purely statistical tie between Trump and Clinton, slightly in favor of Trump (or at least so it seems, the margin of error is missing from the averaged data for no reason, making the stat shown completely meaningless mathematically).

The best stat I noticed was the 'newest polls' on the side, where in New Hampshire, Trump VS Clinton has Clinton win by 5% (notably with the margin of error not listed)...but Trump VS Sanders has Sanders win by 21%....but still the (clearly false) claim that 'Clinton is the best candidate to beat Trump' is repeated ad-nauseam by her supporters and the media.

The saddest part was I also noticed only 2 of all those polls had >1500 people polled, most were about 1000 people, but they claim their margin of error is only 3%?!? Statistics class was a while back, but that doesn't seem right when they are meant to represent full states or even the entire country based on 1000 people's answers.

Tailgater vs Brake Checker

eric3579 (Member Profile)

newtboy (Member Profile)

Zifnab (Member Profile)

lucky760 (Member Profile)

Canada vs. USA -- Debates

Xaielao says...

I think it's also interesting to note that Canadians vote on their federal election on October 19th, 9 weeks from now.

Alternatively the US presidential election is in full swing and Americans vote our federal election on September 15th, 2016. 68 weeks from now!

ant (Member Profile)

Virtual reality, explained with some trippy optical illusion

ChaosEngine says...

Sorry, newt, but that's simply inaccurate.

I saw two grey pills too, but you're completely wrong about the others. I screen shotted all the images into paint.net to verify them.

The rubix cube image is 100% real. The RGB values for the blue and yellow tiles are identical (127,128,129).

Same with the the tiles under the table. They are are off by a small amount (rgb 70 68 71 vs rgb 70 68 70), but I'd but that down to the video encoding.

Ditto with the checkboard; zooming in with paint.net the lines are pixel straight (there is some anti-aliasing at the edges, but it doesn't affect the "straightness of the checkerboard").

The tables too, are the same size. I rotated the vertical table.

If you don't believe me, try it yourself.

newtboy said:

OK. Looking extremely closely and using paper to block out the image, I have to say they fudged things on some of them.
I saw two grey pills the whole time.
The colored tiles fade to grey as they "mask off" the other tiles, they start no where near the shade of grey they end up as, their color has faded a lot in the process.
The grey tiles on the floor also change shades as they are 'masked off' quite clearly. I went 1/4 speed, and also tried masking them off myself, they clearly faked this one.
I put a straight edge on the checker board and sure enough, those lines are slightly curved....just barely but they are.
The two table tops are NOT the same size at first, I measured and the vertical table is definitely longer on the long side. That one's obvious.
The spinning dots does work for me, as do convex images and auditory illusions.
So I'm not ready to call 'fake' on this, but IMO it's fudged badly.

Would Headlights Work at Light Speed?



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