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The 7 Biggest Failures of Trumponomics

vil says...

The vertical axis of the graph at 0:45 is fake news.

No mention of import tariffs and border walls - easily the dumbest Trump presidential ideas from an economic viewpoint.
The tax cut for the rich is in the same league, but I dont think he promised that, he snuck it in under the radar mostly.

Most of the other "failures" are just nonsense claims or the POTUS has no power over them, it was just stupid to make such claims. Or maybe it was clever in an evil way.

Regarding population control I lay a lot of hope on self driving cars - if they become intelligent enough to actually drive in traffic they might realize at that point that if they kill 9/10ths of the population the traffic will become much more bearable and easier to navigate.

Full Self-Driving Timelapse

Ashenkase says...

But passing on the right? Is that legal in the jurisdiction this was filmed in? Also, I cannot wait for self-driving cars, sign me up as soon as it becomes affordable in the Honda Civic price range.

Full Self-Driving Timelapse

eric3579 says...

Tesla makes the best computer/chips. To be used for their self driving cars.

Tesla Autonomy Day discussion and reveals/promises for the future https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ucp0TTmvqOE

A redditor noted these few things
- Full self driving by the end of this year
- Robotaxi car sharing service so your car can go work while you're not using
it. Half the price of Uber and 70% profit share to owner of the car.
- Building the cars with 1 million mile lifespans, including the batteries
- Promising to "delete" the steering wheel in a few years since it'll be obsolete.

Robot drywall installer

ChaosEngine says...

Fair points, but this is obviously a prototype.

Ultimately, the price of these will come down and even if you need to swap out the batteries, there's no reason that can't be automated too. Hell, a roomba basically does that now. The point is it doesn't need sleep or meal breaks and it doesn't care about working hours. Or you just leave it connected to a permanent power source (if you can teach it to drywall, you can teach it to avoid the cable).

And yeah, my numbers are obviously estimates, since this isn't commercially available yet, and you'd need to factor in capital investment, maintenance, etc. But you don't have to pay it a salary, it doesn't need medical and it doesn't have to comply with health and safety regs (at least, not for the robots H&S).

I find it difficult to believe that something like this could ever be less cost-effective than a human.

Of course, that's assuming a steady rate of improvement. Bipedal robots (like self-driving cars) have been "90% there" for many years now. It might be that the last 10% is REALLY, REALLY difficult.

My gut feeling is that we will see a tipping point. There will be some really challenging engineering/programming obstacle that stops these going mainstream, but eventually, someone will solve it and then the rate of progress will be exponential.

But you're right in that, that's certainly a few years away yet. I'm fascinated as to how we as a society/civilisation deal with mass automation.

Drachen_Jager said:

But it's not going to be 1% of the cost for a very, very long time. It probably takes a team of technicians to keep it going right now. 5-10 years from now you can probably get one of those for a hundred grand or so, but maintenance would run you around the same as a full-time drywaller. You're throwing a lot of numbers out there as if they mean something, but they don't. Also, the thing needs downtime to recharge, even once the technology becomes practical and affordable, so 24/7 is not an option. Either you need a worker to replace batteries every few hours, or it needs to plug in to a base station and go offline for significant periods.

Security footage of airborne Tesla.

Epic Anti-texting rant

yellowc says...

Same tactic cops and other educational media tries, doesn't really seem to work I'm afraid. It's the old, "yeah but that driver is stupid, I'm too awesome to ever do that" mentality.

I don't think this is ever getting solved until self driving cars take over, I just don't see any attempt at stopping sinking in really. Luckily more optimistic people are in charge though, keep up the good fight.

The Future of Airliners? - Aurora D8

transmorpher says...

I'm predicting that once self-driving cars are mainstream in the next 20 years the airlines will be in a lot of trouble. With a majority of self driving cars on the road, I think the safety numbers will shift to cars being the safer form of travel, and likely very few traffic jams. We may not even need traffic lights eventually as traffic learns to flow smoothly.

Honda Riding Assist - CES 2017

WKB says...

Actually... that's a great idea. Why not?

I've never considered this angle, but it is kind of genius. If self driving cars are safe enough to carry a person, why not solo? Go the to grocery store website, order your milk. There are three options. Pickup, Delivery, or Auto-Pickup. If you registered your self driving car with the service, you can click a button to confirm, "Send car for pickup."

Wow... I might live to see that.

bobknight33 said:

Now you can send it to the store and get milk while you are posting comments on the sift.

Tesla Predicts a 2 Car Crash Ahead of Driver

bareboards2 says...

Public Transportation. GOOD public transportation is what I always think of when I read all this amazement at self driving cars.

We need to reduce materials going into personal transportation and reduce fossil fuel use.

This is cool. And we need more public transportation, and not toys for rich folks.

Car ‘parks’ itself after driver ejected

Amazon Go: stores with no lines or checkouts, shop and leave

RFlagg says...

It's not clear yet how many items are using RFID. They say they are using "computer vision, sensor fusion, and deep learning" akin to what is used in self-driving cars.

So there are some concerns if you pickup an item then put it back in the wrong place, will it detect it was still left in the store, or will it charge you? Putting it back in the right spot, refunds you, but it's not obvious otherwise.

We really need to know more from the Amazon employees that are using it.

It sounds a lot like Minority Report style stuff going on, and I think it is more a tech demo than a full concept they'll carry out in mass. The information on the path the customer takes, what they get and all that is probably worth a ton, and helps offset other costs with the system... though most of those costs are offset by having fewer employees... We are quickly reaching what CGP Grey noted in his video *relate=http://videosift.com/video/Humans-Need-Not-Apply where we need less and less people to do the lower end jobs... and those shelves look like they can be filled from the back, which is easier on robots.

rabidness said:

The packaging for every item must have an embedded RFID. An idea from about a decade back. One of the worries back then was that people could scan your garbage and learn a lot about you. People probably don't care about that nowadays.

Tesla Invisible Driver Reactions

Tesla Model S adaptive cruise control - crashes into van

Esoog says...

That's what scares me the most about these automated systems..."It worked 1,000 times...just not this time". And I know that there are tons of shitty drivers out there, and when self-driving cars become the majority, maybe accidents will go down...I fear too much complacency.

Tesla Model S driver sleeping at the wheel on Autopilot

ChaosEngine says...

Actually, I would say I have a pretty good understanding of machine learning. I'm a software developer and while I don't work on machine learning day-to-day, I've certainly read a good deal about it.

As I've already said, Tesla's solution is not autonomous driving, completely agree on that (which is why I said the video is probably fake or the driver was just messing with people).

A stock market simulator is a different problem. It's trying to predict trends in an inherently chaotic system.

A self-driving car doesn't have to have perfect prediction, it can be reactive as well as predictive. Again, the point is not whether self-driving cars can be perfect. They don't have to be, they just have to be as good or better than the average human driver and frankly, that's a pretty low bar.

That said, I don't believe the first wave of self-driving vehicles will be passenger cars. It's far more likely to be freight (specifically small freight, i.e. courier vans).

I guess we'll see what happens.

RedSky said:

@ChaosEngine

I'm not sure you understand what machine learning is. As I said, the trigger for your child.runsInFront() is based on numerical inputs from sensors that is fed into a formula with certain parameters and coefficients. This has been optimized from many hours of driving data but ultimately it's not able to predict novel events as it can only optimize off existing data. There is a base level of error from bias-variance tradeoff to any model that you cannot avoid. It's not simply a matter of logging enough hours of driving. If that base error level is not low enough, then autonomous cars may never be deemed reliable to be unsupervised.

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bias-variance_tradeoff
Or specifically: http://scott.fortmann-roe.com/docs/docs/BiasVariance/biasvariance.png

It's the same reason that a stock market simulator using the same method (but different inputs) is not accurate. The difference would be that while 55% correct for the stock market may be sufficiently accurate and useful to be profitable, a driving algorithm needs to be near perfect. It's true that a sensor reaction time to someone braking unexpectedly may be much better than a human's and prevent a crash, so yes in certain cases autonomous driving will be safer but because of exceptional cases, but it may never be truly hands-off and you may always need to be ready to intervene, just like how Tesla works today (and why on a regulatory level it passed muster).

The combination of Google hyping its project and poor understanding of math or machine learning is why news reports just parrot Google's reliability numbers. Tesla also, has managed to convince many people that it already offers autonomous driving, but the auto-steer / cruise and changing lanes tech has existed for around a decade. Volvo, Mercedes and Audi all have similar features. There is a tendency to treat this technology as magical or inevitable when there are some unavoidable limitations behind it that may never be surmounted.

Tesla Model S driver sleeping at the wheel on Autopilot

ChaosEngine says...

I wasn't talking about Tesla, but the technology in general. Google's self-driving cars have driven over 1.5 million miles in real-world traffic conditions. Right now, they're limited to inner city driving, but the tech is fundamentally usable.

There is no algorithm for driving. It's not
if (road.isClear)
keepDriving()
else if (child.runsInFront())
brakeLikeHell()

It's based on machine learning and pattern recognition.

This guy built one in his garage.

Is it perfect yet? Nope. But it's already better than humans and that's good enough. The technology is a lot closer than you think.

RedSky said:

Woah, woah, you're way overstating it. The tech is nowhere near ready for full hands-off driving in non-ideal driving scenarios. For basic navigation Google relies on maps and GPS, but the crux of autonomous navigation is machine learning algorithms. Through many hours of data logged driving, the algorithm will associate more and more accurately certain sensor inputs to certain hazards via equation selection and coefficients. The assumption is that at some point the algorithm would be able to accurately and reliably identify and react to pedestrians, pot holes, construction areas, temporary traffic lights police stops among an almost endless litany of possible hazards.

They're nowhere near there though and there's simply no guarantee that it will ever be sufficiently reliable to be truly hands-off. As mentioned, the algorithm is just an equation with certain coefficients. Our brains don't work that way when we drive. An algorithm may never have the necessary complexity or flexibility to capture the possibility of novel and unexpected events in all driving scenarios. The numbers Google quotes on reliability from its test driving are on well mapped, simple to navigate roads like highways with few of these types of challenges but real life is not like that. In practice, the algorithm may be safer than humans for something like 99% of scenarios (which I agree could in itself make driving safer) but those exceptional 1% of scenarios that our brains are uniquely able to process will still require us to be ready to take over.

As for Tesla, all it has is basically auto-cruise, auto-steer and lane changing on request. The first two is just the car keeping in lane based on lane marker input from sensors, and slowing down & speeding up based on the car follow length you give it. The most advanced part of it is the changing lanes if you indicate it to, which will effectively avoid other cars and merge. It doesn't navigate, it's basically just for highways, and even on those it won't make your exit for you (and apparently will sometimes dive into exits you didn't want based on lane marker confusion from what I've read). So basically this is either staged or this guy is an idiot.



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