Minamisanriku, a city of 20,000 people, is simply gone

Earlier today, Japan-based reporter Judit Kawaguchi tweeted that only three buildings remain of Minamisanriku, a city of 20,000. As of now, ~9,500 are still unaccounted for.
dagsays...

Comment hidden because you are ignoring dag.(show it anyway)

I don't think Japan is very quick or willing to make accurate death toll estimates. I was in the Kobe earthquake of 1995. It took them weeks to get even in the correct neighborhood for casualty numbers. (thousands rather than hundreds). I expect the same to be true here. The Japanese government is reluctant to cough up very bad news.

Consider that in a time when Japan's population was a small fraction of what it is today, the 1923 Tokyo Earthquake killed over 100,000 people and measured only 7.9 in magnitude.

I'm very sad to say that I expect the final death toll from the current earthquake and tsunami devastation to be close to this number.

criticalthudsays...

people.
Seismic activity has increased along with global warming.
Logic, physics, and probability all say that when you shift the mass of the earth (ice caps melting), seismic activity will increase. And it has, by a lot...in the last 30 years.
The poles are shifting.
This is the earth adjusting.
This is akin to shifting the mass of a spinning toy top.

It doesn't matter what you believe. You can believe in an invisible god-man in the sky too. This is about physics and reality. and it is going to get worse.

Contagion21says...

>> ^criticalthud:

Logic, physics, and probability all say that when you shift the mass of the earth (ice caps melting), seismic activity will increase.


Wow.. stretch much? I'm not sure if that's an Appeal to Authority (to the sciences of Logic, Physics and Probability) or just Begging the Question (that the mass of the earth has shifted).

Given the relative mass of the crust, and even smaller relative mass of the ice upon that crust, I would wager that the ice caps could completely and totally melt and have an almost, if not entirely, imperceptible difference on the mass distribution for the planet as a whole.

You're doing a disservice to the understanding we have for plate tectonics to imply that earthquakes increase due to global warming and that this isn't just the simple, and well understood case of a massive earthquake due to a subduction zone between the Pacific and North American plates.


However, feel free to back up any of the following claims:

1) Seismic activity has increased

2) Melting ice has a meaningful impact on planetary mass distribution

3) The poles are shifting

Psychologicsays...

>> ^criticalthud:

>> ^Psychologic:
>> ^criticalthud:
Seismic activity has increased

Source?

http://www.detailshere.com/earthquakeactivity.htm
and google "poles shifting"
we are looking at trends of course. and theory...ie: probability.


http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/topics/increase_in_earthquakes.php

It depends on where you look or who you ask. I could see higher sea levels affecting plate tension, but the end effect is unknown. The quake off the coast of Japan has likely been building tension for several thousand years, so it's a stretch to blame that on climate change.


As far as the poles shifting, that isn't new. They always move around at varying speeds and have even flipped entirely multiple times in the earth's history.

criticalthudsays...

>> ^Contagion21:

>> ^criticalthud:
Logic, physics, and probability all say that when you shift the mass of the earth (ice caps melting), seismic activity will increase.

Wow.. stretch much? I'm not sure if that's an Appeal to Authority (to the sciences of Logic, Physics and Probability) or just Begging the Question (that the mass of the earth has shifted).
Given the relative mass of the crust, and even smaller relative mass of the ice upon that crust, I would wager that the ice caps could completely and totally melt and have an almost, if not entirely, imperceptible difference on the mass distribution for the planet as a whole.
You're doing a disservice to the understanding we have for plate tectonics to imply that earthquakes increase due to global warming and that this isn't just the simple, and well understood case of a massive earthquake due to a subduction zone between the Pacific and North American plates.
However, feel free to back up any of the following claims:
1) Seismic activity has increased
2) Melting ice has a meaningful impact on planetary mass distribution
3) The poles are shifting


yep. could be a stretch.
we could also wager that bringing millions of years worth of jurassic carbon deposits to the surface and burning them in a short period of time couldn't possibly effect our environment. Or we could wager that our surface environment is just a tad bit more fragile than we thought.
i'm just looking at trends, especially over the last 30 years.

But let's say we have just a few milimeters of overall rise in sea levels. That's an awful lot of mass. and then that mass must adapt to currents, concentrating that mass in different ways.
are you a geoscientist? I'm interested in your insights.
pole shifting...or wandering. google it. same with seismic activity.

criticalthudsays...

>> ^Psychologic:

>> ^criticalthud:
>> ^Psychologic:
>> ^criticalthud:
Seismic activity has increased

Source?

http://www.detailshere.com/earthquakeactivity.htm
and google "poles shifting"
we are looking at trends of course. and theory...ie: probability.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/topics/increase_in_earthquakes.php
It depends on where you look or who you ask. I could see higher sea levels affecting plate tension, but the end effect is unknown. The quake off the coast of Japan has likely been building tension for several thousand years, so it's a stretch to blame that on climate change.

As far as the poles shifting, that isn't new. They always move around at varying speeds and have even flipped entirely multiple times in the earth's history.


yes yes, of course this has always gone on. moreso with a younger planet, finding it's equilibrium. But we're looking at recent trends and recent changes to the ecosystem. recent increases that coincide with recent changes in other areas. that's all.
i'm not saying there is a definite correlation, i'm only saying that probability suggests that there may indeed be a strong correlation.
science is all about making hypothesis based on probability, then sorting it out from there.
i'm no geologist. i do neuro theory. however, any change in neurology requires that the whole system adapt, no matter how small the change is. and some aspects of the whole (the neurological aspect) create far more change to the whole than other aspects, regardless of relative size.

bcglorfsays...

>> ^criticalthud:

people.
Seismic activity has increased along with global warming.
Logic, physics, and probability all say that when you shift the mass of the earth (ice caps melting), seismic activity will increase. And it has, by a lot...in the last 30 years.
The poles are shifting.
This is the earth adjusting.
This is akin to shifting the mass of a spinning toy top.
It doesn't matter what you believe. You can believe in an invisible god-man in the sky too. This is about physics and reality. and it is going to get worse.


The only similarity I see to a spinning toy here is the part about spinning.

You have a deep seeded religious belief that mankind is destroying mother Earth, fine. That doesn't make it acceptable for you to cheaply use the deaths of tens of thousands as a soap box to preach your beliefs at us. It's insulting and despicable, and you should be ashamed of yourself.

Or if your just trolling, well played....

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