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nibiyabi says...

>> ^videosiftbannedme:
It's funny how he's freaking out until he hears and comprehends his father's scream of excitement. It's almost like a relay flips over in his brain, reasoning that if his father is having fun, he'll be safe and should be having fun too; he then relaxes and enjoys the ride. Makes me wonder that if that hadn't taken place, would he have had a different reaction to coasters in the future.


That's exactly right. Kids look to their caregivers as emotional references. All the time you'll see a kid fall down, and then look up. If the parent laughs and says, "dust yourself off, buddy. You're fine" then the kid will smile and keep playing. If the parent draws their hands to their face, gasps, and screams "Oh no! Are you OK?" the child will start crying.

The dad was having fun, so the kid learned that he could have fun too.

<> (Blog Entry by blankfist)

nibiyabi says...

I've always wondered about that particular betting strategy. If you "reset" to $10 every time you win, you should win almost every time. 47.37% chance to win on each roll.

$10
$20
$40
$80
$160
$320
$640
$1280
$2560

So you get 9 tries to win $10 with a loss of $5110 if you don't make it . . . ooh, I see what you did there. Never actually added up the expected value. So, let's see. .4737^9 = 0.00120096531. Ohhh, hmm. So the probability of losing all 9 bets is less than one-tenth of one percent. This probably cancels out the huge dollar value.

0.998799035*10 = $9.99
0.00120096531*(-5110) = -$6.14

$9.99-$6.14 = $3.85. So each entire "cycle" if you make sure to reset back to $10 each time you win will net you a measly $3.85. It's a good strategy if you want to get a bunch of free drinks, I guess, but let's say it takes about 3 cycles on average to complete, each of which is, what, 2 minutes? So 6 minutes to earn $3.85 or $38.50 per hour . . . Wait, really? Maybe they aren't that fast with the rolls. Whatever. I should go to bed now. Enough stream-of-consciousness probability-musing. Nighty night.

EDIT: This guy disagrees and I'm inclined to believe him: http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/bettingsystems.html

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nibiyabi says...

So gtjwkq, since "left-wingers" support "big government", we'll assume you define "right-wingers" as supporting "small government", and we'll further assume that you categorize yourself as a right-winger.

What are your stances on the Patriot Act, racial profiling, the war on terror, the war on drugs, the war in Iraq, the war in Afghanistan, and fossil fuel subsidies?

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