Infectious Disease Expert on the seriousness of Coronavirus

Michael Osterholm is an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology. He is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota. Look for his book "Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Deadly Germs" for more info. https://amzn.to/2IAzeLe
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Self promoting this video and sending it back into the queue for one more try; last queued Tuesday, March 10th, 2020 1:38pm PDT - promote requested by original submitter eric3579.

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eric3579says...

I think this clip really drives it home on how serious coronavirus is


newtboysays...

Today the WHO upgraded Coronavirus to "pandemic". (Only about a month after it matched the definition)
New numbers show it's actual mortality rate is likely around 3.4% , average flu mortality is as low as .05%. (Way more testing is needed to verify that 3.4% number)

What we don't know is the rate of transmission, but it appears to be exceptionally high.
What we also don't know is that infection leads to permanent immunity. There are numerous reported cases of people being released after treatment, testing negative, then getting infected again. It's rare, and may be due to poor testing, but just assuming you can only get it once is rolling the dice with life or death stakes. I had chicken pox twice...the common misconception is that's impossible.

bobknight33says...

The rate of spread (Ro) is said to be between 2.5 and 4.

That is the same as saying X to power of 2.5 or 4.


Would be best to shut down any County that is infected. Nip it in the bud.

The infected guy in NC last week got it from Washington state old folks home, Now we have7 official cases and nest week we should be 20+

If we can slow down the rate of spread then the Hospitals can deal with this more effectively. I think this wont happen and facilities will be over burden is short order.


On the bright side this burn through the world in few months.
Hope we all are stand standing then.

newtboysays...

Compared to the flu at 1.3, that's bad. I'll just have to hope it's on the low end of those estimates, only one order of magnitude worse than a bad flu at spreading, but it's looking worse already.

If a predicted up to (+-)114000000 dead worldwide (3% mortality if only 50% are infected) is the bright side, that's pretty horrific.

If you're right about hospitals being unprepared, and I think you are, the mortality rate will climb. The military should be building temporary medical/quarantine facilities now....and maybe cremation facilities. That was an issue in China.

bobknight33said:

The rate of spread (Ro) is said to be between 2.5 and 4.

That is the same as saying X to power of 2.5 or 4.


Would be best to shut down any County that is infected. Nip it in the bud.

The infected guy in NC last week got it from Washington state old folks home, Now we have7 official cases and nest week we should be 20+

If we can slow down the rate of spread then the Hospitals can deal with this more effectively. I think this wont happen and facilities will be over burden is short order.


On the bright side this burn through the world in few months.
Hope we all are stand standing then.

vilsays...

The mortality rate depends on how many respirators per number of people you have in a given location.

Also on how accessible those respirators are.

Italy apparently fared worse than China. Wuhan province fared worse than Italy.

eric3579says...

Do you know where i might find articles/numbers (stats) that make a direct link between the lack of respirators in those areas and mortality.

vilsaid:

The mortality rate depends on how many respirators per number of people you have in a given location.

Also on how accessible those respirators are.

Italy apparently fared worse than China. Wuhan province fared worse than Italy.

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