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Bill Maher's election predictions on Jimmy Kimmel

diego says...

agreed.

I would add that science/doctors have been pushed out by the administration from day one, to the point that they use it to attack biden ("he's going to listen to the scientists!")

also, the inconsistency he is referring to for example in restaurants and flights, is entirely driven by economics, not science. Those are two of the hardest hit industries worldwide, you have a president who has made it clear he prioritises business over public health, of course they made some theatrical protocol to make it seem safer when really, its not.
(same in my country, and having a bakery myself have had to do the same stupid dance).

Pointing at the survival of christie, trump or any other celebrity, no matter how overweight, old or whatever, is not analogous to the experience of normal people who cant afford that level of treatment, most wouldnt have access to it even if they could afford it. not to mention that we dont even really know long term effects for survivors, including importantly how long the immune response lasts.

That whole segment just came off as the typical selfish "i dont think this will kill me, lets get back to normal" BS. Weve known for a long time now that what makes coronavirus dangerous isnt its mortality rate, its the combination of a long asymptomatic incubation period and airbone transmission that make it highly contagious, when hospitals collapse the mortality rate spikes.

I actually agree that we have to learn to live with this because i dont think a vaccine is nowhere near close to ready for global deployment, but i thought his arguments were terrible and his focus selfish.

***finally anecdotal experience here in Chile, 3 friends have gotten covid-
44 year old, former national team field hockey, good shape
41 year old, former point guard national team basketball, good shape
38 year old, professional poker player, overweight bordering on obese.

the 44 year old was in the hospital for 12 days, no ventilator, felt aches and pains for a solid month after going home
the 41 year old was in the hospital for 28 days, ventilator (and the induced coma that comes with it), still feels physically drained
the 38 year old had a fever for 3 days and never went to the hospital, is feeling fine

Between different strains and different body/blood types, comparing one case to another doesnt seem to work

cloudballoon said:

I think Bill's attack on the science/health experts is misguided.

Not that Bill's wrong, mind you. IF you have a good internal (immune) system you'll have a better chance of fighting it off, but

1) that's NOT a guarantee you won't get sick.
2) DOESN'T mean you won't help spread it by being all gun-ho about it, and
3) USA being what it is -- the number of over-weight, obese are just staggering -- what's the point for the health experts to say/shame people with, er, "their pre-conditions" are to blame NOW? How's that gonna help?

Besides, the health experts have been promoting healthy, active living for ages. They're not "cowards" because the people don't listen to them.

It's mind-bogging to me how narcissistic and self-centered American society is. If people just pay any attention outside of American media, they should know how to handle Covid-19.

The Trump Plan

newtboy says...

Stop posting this unscientific propaganda, pedophilia supporter.

Notice not one reference on any of his "data" because he likely made it up like he usually does.

His data doesn't match any verified data either, and his graphs are intentionally confusing, including individual states and countries in a completely unscientific propaganda graph, some countries with populations in the 70-80000 range. My guess is it's improperly presented this way to hide how bad America has done, with well over half the slots being US states and many of the remaining countries having tiny populations and third world conditions. This is the superstition side of the argument, not science based or scientific at all.

We have >200000 deaths with just over 2% infected. Herd immunity takes 70-80% being infected and a stable virus that won't mutate enough to erase immunity. That's a minimum of 7-8 MILLION Americans dead and p to 21-24 million permanently disabled if we have 1.6 million ICU beds....hint, we don't, so multiply the deaths by 4-7 but lower the disabled numbers, they'll die instead. So far, there's no study that shows herd immunity is even possible, since this virus mutates every few months it's unlikely. I think sacrificing millions - 60 million or more to find out is outrageously insane.

Use real, verified data, we are at best 8th worst (only 7 countries have more deaths per 100000 and 8th highest death rate per infection too). Just look at India, with 4 times the US population, just over 1 million fewer cases than the US, and way less than half the deaths....IN FUCKING INDIA.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/08/05/899365887/charts-how-the-u-s-ranks-on-covid-19-deaths-per-capita-and-by-case-count

Because our population is so large, that puts us at number one in total deaths with 4% of the population but 25% of deaths....so > 6 times the global average per capita and the most reported deaths by far.

Fail Bobski. Only the most uneducated rubes fall for this ridiculous nonsense.

bobknight33 said:

Sweden VS UK
Science Based Policy Versus Superstition

Covid, Facts, Fake news Debunked

newtboy says...

Moron.
>.01% of the population dead with just over .25% of the population infected is not a mortality/death rate of .01%, it's 4%, and it is enough to overwhelm the global medical system to the point where Trump virus death panels are a real thing, not some fantasy boogie man, and they decide if grandma is worth saving.

Quit trotting out this dumbass, @bobknight33. It just makes it obvious why you are so deluded and confused when you listen to this garbage by a delusional science conspiracy nutjob.

eoe (Member Profile)

newtboy says...

Moved this to profile pages, better late than never.

I'll try to be brief....and fail miserably I expect.
I accept the fact that some theories I hold will be wrong, and cause failure. At least theories can be tested and discarded when proven false. Yes, some are so engrained it would take TNT to dislodge them, but they aren't unchangeable, beliefs are immutable.

No morality in that claim. Moral excuses might be 1) I minimize any suffering by buying mostly family farmed meats and 2) those lives only exist for human pleasure and substance. If no one ate cows and pigs, they would be extinct nuisance animals. (And chickens rare) If the animal has a nice, pain and stress free life, but in trade that life ends early, as long as the end is humane I'm not bothered. That's life it otherwise wouldn't enjoy at all.
Factory farms don't meet those requirements.
They're tasty is why I eat meat. It might be snide, but it's honest. Yes, I'm obstinate, I like meat, I'm not claiming it the most moral, ethical, ecological, or empathetic thing to do, but if done thoughtfully it's not the worst either.

My meaning with "it's not the worst t thing people do" was to reply to " I believe (assuming humans survive) humans will look upon this time of killing billions of animals for nothing but human pleasure with disgusting disgrace." with a few other examples of things worse that we will be judged for, not to distract or excuse. I'm not sure how that's a logical falicy. Tens of Billions of animals are killed horrifically for pure greed and not even used as food, that's a disgusting disgrace I could denounce.

I read the WHO study he was referencing and it said no such thing, I told him, showed him, he kept repeating the bullshit lies. I'm not receptive to people who blatantly misrepresent science. I don't rely on any industry produced studies for any decisions, that would be dumb. The study said certain highly processed and preserved red meats had some carcinogens, not any meat at any level is equivalent to two packs a day. My degree is general science, I can read a study.

Oh shit, nutritionfacts.org is Dr Gregor, the one who outright lies about scientific studies, and the one who made the false equivalency between tiny amounts of meat and constant chain smoking, he also loved to misuse "plant based" to mean vegan and claim the studies on plant based (not plant exclusive) diets proved vegan benefits when they really proved a mixed diets benefits. I've been deep down his rabbit hole, and found him incredibly unscientific and dishonest. I don't trust him one bit, sorry.

I've only known a hand full, including the one who introduced me to Dr Gregor, my aunt, uncle, and cousins, and a few here in hippy central where I live. Not one was honest, they acted like it was religion and took statements as gospel with no investigation and were forceful in their insistence that everyone agree.

I once ate fish and thought it was fine. Three years of marine biology cured me of that, so my theories are changed by facts. I promised myself to never learn too much about chicken, pork, or beef because I don't want to know what's in them unless it's broken glass. That's a conscious decision. There is no hell hot enough to scare me away from good bacon. That said, I do care that they have a good life before being harvested.

I'm willing to change behavior and thinking. I previously thought the fda was good at protecting us, I decided I couldn't trust that.

I make some decisions based on MY morality, some on self interest, some on group/global interest, etc. I'm not willing to make any based on someone else's morality, especially if they're pushy.

I have no clue who visits, but this is where I come, so it's where I speak up.

I always make the mistake of thinking people will be logical.

eoe said:

Woo boy, this is a doozy! The fact of the matter is a video comment section is not the place to have this conversation. There's too much to discuss, too many questions from one another that are best asked soon after they're conceived, etc. I frankly just don't have the time to respond to everything you said. Don't take this as acquiescence; if you'd like to have a Zoom chat some time, I'd be down.

In any event, I'll respond to what I find either the most important or at least most interesting:

Having theories is definitely the best way to go about most of the things you consider fact (for the moment), but the fact of the matter (no pun intended) is that at some point you'll need to use some of those claims as fact/belief in order to take action. And it's just human nature to, if one believes in a claim for long enough, it becomes fact, despite all your suggestions of objectivity. It's easy to say you're a scientist through and through, but if you're really someone who doesn't believe anything and merely theorize things, I think you'd be a sad human being. But that's a claim that I leave up to the scientists.

> Yes, and I eat animals because they're delicious.

You think that's a defensible moral claim? I find that disgraceful. If you truly think your own pleasure is worth sentient beings' lives then... I don't know what to say to you. That strikes me as callous and unempathetic, 2 traits you often assert as shameful. This is my point. You sound pretty obstinate to at least a reasonable claim. To respond with just "they're tasty". You don't sound reasonable to me.

> You may be correct, but eating meat is hardly the worst thing humans are up to.

Aw, come on @newtboy, I thought better of you than to give me a logical fallacy. The fact that you're resorting to logical fallacies wwould indicate to me that either you're confronting some cognitive dissonance, otherwise why would you stoop to such a weak statement?

> I gladly discuss vegetarianism with honest people, but I'm prepared when they start spouting bullshit like " eating any red meat is more harmful than smoking two packs a day of filterless cigarettes" ...

There is a lot of scientific research (not funded by Big ___) that is currently spouting this "bullshit". What happened to your receptive, scientific, theory-based lifestyle? It's true nutrition science is a fucking smog-filled night mare considering how much money is at stake, but I find it telling that a lot of the corporations are using the same ad men from Big Cigarette to stir up constant doubt.

Again, I find it peculiar that you are highly suspicious of big corporations... except when it comes to something that you want to be true.

Again, this is my point. Take a moment, take a few breaths, and look inside. Can you notice that you're acting in the exact same fashion as the people you purport to be obscenely stubborn?

Check out NutritionFacts if you want to see any of the science. Actual science. I would hope that it would give you at least somedoubt and curiosity.

That's a true scientist's homeostatic state: curiosity. Are you curious to investigate the dozens (hundreds?) of papers with a truly non-confirmation-biased mind? How much of a scientist are you?

> I've never met a vegan that wasn't a bold faced liar in support of veganism, so I'm less likely to give them a full chance at convincing me.

This, for me, raises all sorts of red flags. That's quite a sweeping claim.

> Again, that would be long held theories in my case, and it's not hard to change them. Mad cow disease got me to change until I was certain it wasn't in America. No, I'm not recoiling. I'll listen to anyone who's respectful and honest.

So, you're willing to make decisions based on self-interest and not morality? Well, duh. Everyone does that. It doesn't sound like you had a self-reflective moment. It sounds like you merely had a self-interested decision based on the risk to your own health.

And finally, all your talk about Bob -- of course he acts, consistently, like a twat. I just don't like feeding trolls. I don't think there's anyone on Videosift who's on the precipice and would be pushed over into the Alt-right Pit by Bob's ridiculous nonsense.

> Edit: in general I agree that dispassionate fact based replies with references are better at convincing people than derision, there are exceptions, and there are those who are unconvinceable and disinterested in facts that don't support their lies.

Ironically, I think science has disproved this. Facts don't change minds in situations like this. There are lots of articles on this. I didn't have the wherewithal to dig into their citations, but I leave that (non-confirmation-biased) adventure for you. [1]

---

I knew I wouldn't make this short, but I think it's shorter than it could have been.

Lastly, I'm with @BSR; I do appreciate your perseverance. Not everyone has as much as you seem to have! Whenever I see Bob... doing his thing, I can always be assured you'll take most of the words from my mouth. [2]

[1]
Why Facts Don’t Change Our Minds | The New Yorker
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/02/27/why-facts-dont-change-our-minds

This Article Won’t Change Your Mind - The Atlantic
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/03/this-article-wont-change-your-mind/519093/

Why People Ignore Facts | Psychology Today
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/words-matter/201810/why-people-ignore-facts

Why Many People Stubbornly Refuse to Change Their Minds | Psychology Today
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/think-well/201812/why-many-people-stubbornly-refuse-change-their-minds

Why Facts Don't Always Change Minds | Hidden Brain : NPR
https://www.npr.org/transcripts/743195213

[2] This comment has not been edited nor checked for spelling and grammatical errors. Haven't you got enough from me?

Helicopter night rescue of trapped firefighters

eric3579 says...

Here is a really cool website that tracks airplanes in real time. I've been watching tankers and helicopters fighting multiple fires today in my area. As of right now they are fighting the CZU fire with multiple helicopters just west of Boulder Creek https://www.flightradar24.com/37.09,-122.08/12 . Also fighting the SCU fire with multiple large Air-tankers including the 747 global supertanker, currently dropping around Henry Coe state parkhttps://www.flightradar24.com/37.39,-121.51/11. Also a couple copters fighting that fire just south of Livermore.

(edit) I see North of San Francisco there are quite a few helicopters and small planes fighting the fire in the Point Reyes area. https://www.flightradar24.com/37.99,-122.85/11

So many fires right now

Trump and Fox Struggle to Attack Sen. Kamala Harris

newtboy says...

You must be joking.
He may have more support among those still calling themselves Republicans, but there are insanely fewer of those today, #walkaway, and his approval among independents has tanked from it's low starting point, and among democrats it's non existent. Also, he's the incumbent, can't get none of that there reform when you're the incumbent, and that was his ONLY selling point. Also, you don't have Biden cheating the election process like Clinton, so fewer turning away from the Democrats.
All these anti Trump commercials are produced by Republicans, Bobby, not Democrats, not Russia, not China, Republicans. I've lost count of the number of anti Trump Republican groups they're popping up so fast.

Democrats fed up with Joe stuttering or flubbing words (but not concepts) will go with Trump, who lost his mental grip before 2016, and finger bangs his daughters, rapes women, cheats on every wife, has a child with his daughter, and has failed at every leadership metric?!? Wow. That will be a sight to see. If they do, we will get the president we deserve, and it will end this great experiment in democracy.

You know what you complain about ALL happened under Trump's leadership, not during Biden's. Same leadership in cities, the only change was Trump that made civility and law fall apart.
Covid is only a non issue to idiots who believe Trump over literally anyone else, no matter their credentials or evidence. Above 85 IQ people understand they live in the real world where 160000 are dead and likely 500000 permanently disabled.
>160000 dead, >5 times the rate of deaths and infections than the global average including third world nations, they aren't just elderly, they do include thousands of children dead and tens of thousands brain damaged. Republicans were prepared to shut down over Benghazzi, 4 deaths...but not over 160000, even knowing not shutting down will extend the pandemic, extend the shutdowns, extend the national isolation, extend the depression, and cost the U.S. trillions upon trillions more in excess costs and losses, all of which could have been avoided by shutting down two weeks earlier and mandating masks, but Trump didn't, so we are the worst effected nation on earth in nearly every way.

Why are you still getting information from the Don the con? He's steered you wrong at every single turn.

bobknight33 said:

OK

I'll say it.

Trump will win by a fucking landslide.

More supporters today than 2016. Democrats fed up with the far left of their party, not to mention Finger Banging JOE loosing his mental grip will push Trump to victory.

The fake news, BLM rioters, Democrat lead cities dumping on Blue lives, cutting funding. Crime spiking, looting, murder rates spiking will lead to total victory.


Covid is a non issue. People want to go tow work not be ordered by Democrat mayors, Governors to stay shut down.

Covid death rates are low % , except elderly, and not worth the economic damage to people, states, nation.

Do You Regret All Your Lying?

StukaFox says...

Can I ask you an honest question: why back the Trump horse?

I'm assuming that as a conservative, there's things you want accomplished in government. At least, I think you do. I get the whole "some men just want to watch the world burn" deal, if that's your goal, but if you want something more substantial it doesn't seem like Trump is getting you there. Sure, it's fun to piss people off, but that shtick only goes so far. What have you really accomplished here? Hillary ain't locked up; Mexico ain't paying for the wall; the economy's in ruins and has been since September of 2019; China's ascendant and the trade deal is totally dead; Russia's more powerful than ever; our allies are alienated and American global prestige is in complete tatters; the Left is more invigorated than any time since the early 70s and the Right is so devoid of ideas or accomplishments that they're reduced to "Sleepy Joe" and trying to tar opponents as Communists as if it's suddenly 1952 again.

Literally, what did you win with Trump?

Heat wave of 1934

BRUTAL TRUTH About Democrat-Run Cities

newtboy says...

Yep, the answer to any problem from you, cut taxes. Military underfunded, cut taxes. Can't afford universal health care, cut taxes. Debt and deficit are bigger than GDP, cut taxes. Infrastructure crumbling, cut taxes. Daddy Trump's businesses are struggling, cut taxes, especially theirs.

How many trillions more do they need? How much of that goes directly into Trump's families pockets? They already took dozens, up to hundreds of millions last round despite being specifically banned from the program.

Democrats want higher taxes because we like America being a sovereign nation, and bankrupting us into third world status could change that. When the final numbers for 2020 come out, I bet you that dinner you still owe me it will be double the deficit of any other year in history or worse, $6 trillion+ in spending and another trillion+ in lost taxes from lost production thanks to not shutting down in March-May....on top of the trillion+ deficit built into the budget.....and we're heading into a global depression with this deep debt, making borrowing money near impossible.

2021 is going to be a disaster too, no matter who's elected. Trump has ensured it. Any company that can afford to leave is leaving already, bud. They took the handouts from Trump and in pure Trump fashion took the cash and ignored what it was for, many using that money for expansions outside America, companies like Harley Davidson.

bobknight33 said:

JOBS JOBS JOBS will do wonders to turn around poverty.

Cutting taxes for companies to come in and create jobs is a good start.

Democrats seem to want higher taxes so Companies and those who can afford to leave, leave.

Fake News Works

bobknight33 (Member Profile)

newtboy says...

Lol. All PROFESSIONAL doctors agree....and social distancing with good hygiene is not shutting down for the most part.
(There are dozens of ways to achieve relative safety and keep even schools open, but just going back isn't one of them. For instance, staggered school days, splitting classes into 5 equal groups that each attend one day a week could allow social distancing and more personal attention, online classrooms could supplement at home schooling the other 4 days a week. What won't work is Trump's plan of just sending everyone back to overcrowded classrooms all at once, that's a guarantee of new large scale outbreaks nationwide.)

Now we know the doctors that agree with you are the same doctors that say alien DNA is used to make medicines, gynecologic issues are caused by having sex with demons in dreams, hydroxychloroquine is safe and effective, and 1/2 the government is lizard people and other aliens.
Trump's got the best doctors.
*facepalm

Feeling like you're being lied to yet?

Or are these conspiracy theorist nutbags, the only ones who agree with Trump, the best and brightest doctors (in your mind) and those millions of professional and sane health care workers are in a huge perfectly executed global conspiracy designed solely to hurt Trump even in countries that love Trump like Brazil and Russia, murdering hundreds of thousands and maiming millions and starting a global depression to further the fraud?

Second question. If every nation in the world is willing to murder it's own citizens and destroy their own economies to hurt Trump, shouldn't he be removed for the good of the nation and planet? If his "leadership" has made enemies out of every other country, how does that benefit America?

bobknight33 said:

First of al not ALL agree to stay shut down or to mask up.

% of deaths to infected is small. Is It worth shutting down and loosing mom and pop shops and much more worth it?


I say mask up and go to work.

Kids are the safest demographic.

BSR (Member Profile)

Alaskan Glacier calving Columbia w/ 200 foot high shooter

vil says...

Glaciers that end in seas calve regardless of the effects of global warming. That is just what happens when they meet sea water.

The entertainment is mostly the result of the boats not being at a particularly safe distance. People enjoy doing something stupid and surviving.

Also big moving things awe us. I would definitely be entertained seeing this from up close. Could not help myself.

My take from this is that "holy shit" is slightly more entertainment than "oh my god". Amused to death.

cloudballoon said:

Am I the only one disturbed and concerned by the underlying cause of the calving than repeatedly yelling "Oh my God woohoo!" like I'm watching a blockbuster disaster CGI movie? It's not "entertaining"...

And reading up Glacier calving on wikipedia, the boats not even at a particularly safe distance?

Kimberly Jones Explains Why People Protest, Riot & Loot

newtboy says...

So was murder, and rape, so I'm coming over to murder you, put your children into slavery, and your wife too if she survives my whole tribe raping her. What, can't get over the past? It's the norm since Jesus, until the 1800's at least...but you just gave me permission to ignore any civil progression. Thanks, I can use some white slaves and a whore.
Dumbass, the constitution allowed slavery, and actually so did Lincoln, he offered to allow states to decide themselves if they just paid their taxes.
South said no dice, and went with treason. They much preferred being traitors to admitting blacks were human beings.

When you start with nothing (not the >$400000000 "nothing" Trump was handed), are denied opportunities, loans, housing (by Trump and pops in many cases) businesses, and in places where you're successful anyway like Tulsa, you get massacred, you're left with little chance for personal or cultural financial progress. Derp.
When you then, having scratched out a living despite the dozen daily roadblocks whites don't have, must compete with those who were handed $400000000 but claim to be self made and also don't have roadblocks like loan refusal, rental refusal, job refusal, purchasing refusal, near daily delays and attacks by racist police, business burnings, etc, that's not the past holding you back, it's the present.

The countries where it's local have mostly white police forces that are also racist against black and brown people, and even so are mostly protesting America's massive systemic racism, holding George Floyd signs and slogans. You know that, you aren't 3....or are you?

Never heard of colonialism I guess. Well, that's not surprising. See, white Europeans took over most brown or black countries, racistly claiming they couldn't govern themselves because they weren't fully human. That was a global racist endeavor.

You are such a stupid, racist tool. You should be forced to live in rural S Africa and learn what racism is before opening your ignorant mouth and spouting stupidity. You really have no clue what you're talking about, as usual.

You make me so sad and worried for humanity if we have your ilk dragging us down and backwards.

bobknight33 said:

You don't have anything because you haven't tried to get over the past.

Slavery was the norm since Jesus.
The Constitution gave a path to end it.

When you have a chip that big on your shoulder.
When you don't have a father in your family.
When you blame others for your blight.
You are left with little chance of personal financial progress.



What I find odd is that the BLM movement is Global. Since this is indeed Global then this is not an White racist America problem, nor European racist issue. The whole white globe can't be at fault for the blight of the black. So the true question is What is the Black doing to better themselves? Or are they just screaming poor little ole me? Or is the truth really is that blacks are fucked over just as much as everyone else but used as political pawns. Since a black can achieve / become whatever they want in life, I think the latter is the correct answer.

Kimberly Jones Explains Why People Protest, Riot & Loot

bobknight33 says...

You don't have anything because you haven't tried to get over the past.

Slavery was the norm since Jesus.
The Constitution gave a path to end it.

When you have a chip that big on your shoulder.
When you don't have a father in your family.
When you blame others for your blight.
You are left with little chance of personal financial progress.



What I find odd is that the BLM movement is Global. Since this is indeed Global then this is not an White racist America problem, nor European racist issue. The whole white globe can't be at fault for the blight of the black. So the true question is What is the Black doing to better themselves? Or are they just screaming poor little ole me? Or is the truth really is that blacks are fucked over just as much as everyone else but used as political pawns. Since a black can achieve / become whatever they want in life, I think the latter is the correct answer.



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