Newt,

This is in response to your comment on my statement about Biden needing to lose in '20.

I recently wrote this as a reply to one of my readers (I write under a number of different names in other places).:

Dear <name>,

>I took some time to absorb what you wrote. It's a lot to juggle. The Atlantic has an article in the July-August issue on the worst and best case scenario in CLO defaults. I'll read more.

I read the article you mentioned, and while it's certainly good, it also misses a very important point that explains the mess we're in: the collapse of Lehman and Bear-Stearns, while catastrophic in their own ways, were not the nightmare that caused the Fed to freak out in 2008 -- AIG was. Had AIG gone under and the counterparty default contracts triggered, we'd be on the barter system right now. We came within hours of not having an economy in the western world. The $700b ($.7t) the Fed coughed up to stop this from happening calmed the panic, but did nothing to resolve the underlying issues. These issues continued to compound during the 2011-2020 stock run-up and now we're at the point where the Fed is throwing trillions of dollars at every piece of bad debt they can find just to keep the whole thing from imploding into an economic black hole. It is important to note that in September '19, the credit markets started freezing because of the debt that was already on the books then, -before- CV-19 started rolling, and it took $3t just to get them unlocked again. Absolutely nothing has gotten better since then, and I would argue things have gotten dangerously worse.

In an odd coincidence, the NYT ran an article today about the looming bankruptcy crisis. They're calling for 30-60 days before things start imploding, but I'll stick to my estimate of ~90 days. There's some talk about extending the $600 benefits (we'll see) and chatter about another stimulus check, but that's kicking the can as well as telegraphing how bad things really are. When the Republicans are getting behind free money, you know we're in some uncharted territory. For all intents and purposes, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) -- the reason the Fed is backstopping debt and printing money like crazy -- is the hill the US economy will live or die on. Should the US dollar come unpegged as the world's de facto currency or should inflation begin (and there's already worrying signs this is happening), that's game over.

Please don't take anything I say as the Word of God; please do your own research and come to your own conclusions. Everything I've said is an opinion based on my education, experience and way of thinking. Your mileage may vary.

Here is the article I mentioned: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/18/business/corporate-bankruptcy-coronavirus.html -- might be paywalled, but clear your cookies for the NYT and you should be able to read it.


>Frankly, it's the physical danger in my area of the States that concerns me. There are the guns and bullying. During some BLM demonstrations in the Midwest, locals were standing around with semi-automatics. I drive a Prius for the fuel efficiency. Pick up trucks enjoy tailgating, trying to intimidate me. This behavior isn't going to change with a change of President but will get worse is we don't change. This ideological push to takeover the country instead of ruling by compromise started around the same time we came to the US in 1981, Reagan's first year. I was so shocked when I heard talk radio for the first time; this wasn't the country I had left in the 1970s.


And now we come to the giant pile of sweaty dynamite that's just waiting for the right shock to set it off. I could give you a prolonged lecture about how this all started in 1978 with California's Proposition 13, or how David Stockman's tragically prescient warnings were blatantly ignored, but Haynes Johnson does a far better job at this than I ever could in his 1991 book "Sleepwalking Through History", as does Kevin Phillips in 2006's "American Theocracy". Honestly, at this point, the prelude is academic. The reality of the situation is that a large swath of adult Americans are appalling ill-educated, innumerate and devoid of even the most basic critical-thinking skills. These people are now locked out of the Information Economy. They lack the most basic skills required to compete in the 21st century job market and thus will watch their standard of living sink into the abyss. These people are not blind to this fact because they're living with the reality of their situation every single day. They're totally without hope, cut off from all avenues of control over their own lives and they feel utterly abandoned by the very people who're supposed to be helping them. The reason you're seeing bullying and behavior like that is because these same people are totally removed from any avenues of recourse and the only people they can take their anger out on are people like you and me. Their anger is being stoked on a daily basis. FOX News and the GOP are experts at this and have a host of boogeymen to keep the anger from being pointed their way: ANTIFA, BLM (black Americans have always made a perfect target), "coastal elites" and, of course, Liberals.

Trump's election was a warning, not an outlier. Trump was the primal scream of these people and Liberals and the Democrats as a whole chose not to listen because they found the sound so abhorrent. The rage will only get worse and the number of people enveloped by this rage will only grow as economic conditions worsen. At this point, it no longer matters who wins in '20. Winning the election will be like winning the deed to the World Trade Center one second after the first jet hit. The damage has already been done and no steps are being taken to repair it; if anything, people are actively making it worse either through ideological blindness, deliberate malfeasance or outright stupidity. It took almost 50 years to get to this point and the endemic issues will not be undone in a single generation, much less a single election. Until the people who voted for Trump feel a sense of real hope, a sense of control over their lives and a genuine expectation of recourse for their grievances, they will keep right on voting for Trump, or people like him.

My unfortunate suspicion is that this country will rip itself to shreds long before those reforms are enacted.

Side note: the fundamental difference between the United States and Europe is that European history has forced the nations of Europe to live with the consequences of their actions. Not so the United States. Europe has suffered for her sins. Not so the United States. The two bloodiest wars in human history were fought on European soil. Not so the United States. The United States has never faced true suffering, nor has it ever had to live with the ramifications of its own actions. Both these facts are about to change and a nation whose character is built on a mythology of individual action and violence is going to have to face reality. The people of this nation are not prepared for this and they will not like it.

Second side note: many people are erroneously comparing the current situation to the Wiemar Republic. This is a lack of historical understanding. A more apt comparison would be to Spain in late 1935.


>As for re-opening, we could have gotten some control if the "leader" had simply donned a mask and used realistic thinking. People could go back to work more safely, wash hands, stay a certain distance. But his hubris led the way, so now we'll have a roller coaster for months and years that will affect the economy even more. France is a good comparison because they were unprepared also, having slashed the public healthcare budget for the last twenty years. But when they laid down the rules, troops patrolled the streets to be sure they were followed. So far, they've flattened the curve (for now), and used different economic incentives, such as paying part of employees' salaries to keep them employed.

At this point, the pace of re-opening is a difference between very bad and much worse. Had $3t been used to pay the yearly salary of every American, we could have saved lives and the economy, but we didn't. The history of 2020 will be littered with "what-ifs". However, the first thing you learn when studying history is that what-ifs are useless because things are what they are and you can't change that. It's already obvious we're going into a second wave. If previous pandemics are any indication of what's to come, this second wave will be many times worse than the first. The wait for a vaccine is indeterminate, but if we're going for herd immunity, ~70% of Americans will need to catch the virus. To date, ~1.5% have. If the US population is ~330 million, ~230 million will need to catch the virus. Call the mortality rate 2%, that means ~4.6 million Americans will die. That's a lot of dead Americans and grieving families.

Take care,

(my actual name)

Not strictly, as I pointed out in multiple ways.
Do you contradict anything I said, or are you switching to a constitutional interpretation discussion to avoid it?

If they don't, he vetos, back to square one. It's happened, but it's rightly seen as a total lack of governance and dereliction of duty by congress to not negotiate and pass a budget that will be signed, so become law. Not sure that's possible anymore, the negotiating with the president part I mean.

They can, if 2/3 of them are willing to push it through twice.....good luck with that anymore.

We were discussing veto, and overriding vetoes.

Not the timeline I recall, but I'm not willing to dispute it.
Did you note how often the Obama administration complained that investigations into Burisma and it's founder were dropped, they never tried to stop an investigation. Did you note Biden wanted Shoken out because he shelved investigations into Burisma and Mykola Zlochevskiy ? Did you note that the UK found nothing illegal when they investigated?

Did you note that Hunter was hired before the investigations (by corrupt Russian prosecutors, btw) mentioned in the article had started, so couldn't have been hired to get them stopped? Impossible according to that timeline.
Did you note there was never any hint that he tried to stop any investigation?
At the time he was hired, there was no investigation to stop....and if he was hired to get American help with future investigations that backfired badly because we went after investigators that DIDN'T investigate or dropped cases, not ones that made cases or investigated thoroughly.


Most importantly, did you notice that there was NEVER any investigation into HUNTER for Biden to try and stop, as is the claim. None at all. Nada.

The constitution puts purse authority strictly in the hands of congress. Congress can pass any budget it pleases.
Reviewing any budget submitted by the president is a courtesy, not a requirement.

Actually, congress can pass laws that require (or forbid) the president to do things.

I am not discussing veto. I only mention it as one of the few presidential powers - and that I'm glad he has it, as it means less laws on average.

edit, According to this timeline, Hunter was working there since April 2014, in time for all the investigations.
https://www.justsecurity.org/66271/timeline-trump-giuliani-bidens-and-ukrainegate/

-scheherazade

Lol. If you honestly think that, you need serious help.

The president submits his budget to congress, they rubber stamp it mostly, then send it back for presidential approval. The president controls it more than congress, start to finish, they only make changes the president must approve.
The president has enormous discretionary spending abilities too.
I guess you forgot what Ukraine was about...the president withholding congressionally approved funds. It works the other way too, where they spend funds not approved....constantly.

The president can make presidential orders, emergency declarations, reappropriation, and other ploys to get around congressional approval for spending. Remember that wall Mexico was paying for...how did it eventually get funded, (hint, not through the congressionally approved budget. He reappropriated funds for active duty family housing)

Edit: and now we're both right, as just yesterday the 9th circuit court decided Trump declaring an emergency at the border was a farce, his own DOJ numbers proved there was no need, no emergency, no caravans a comin, and that his misappropriation of the funding was unconstitutional....but I'm not a bit sure how that makes a difference since he already spent most of it. It was unconstitutional, but he did it anyway. They aren't going to recover those billions, so in reality being unconstitutional didn't stop anything.


Um...the "veto" we're discussing is actually technically called a "congressional override"...it's when congress overrides a presidential veto, creating the law, not repealing it. Are you confused because I called it congress vetoing the president?


He withheld congressionally approved funds from an ally, costing them lives and loss of bargaining power in an attempt to blackmail their president into STARTING an investigation into a crime that clearly was impossible if you know the timeline. That harmed American interests both in the region and internationally, cost lives, and gave aid and comfort to our enemy, Russia...that covers treason pretty thoroughly. There was NEVER an investigation into Hunter Biden to drop. Fuck, you people are gullible and ignorant, and just refuse to check facts. The Burisma investigation was shelved long before Hunter worked for Burisma, and shelving investigations for bribes was what the prosecutor had been doing his entire tenure, and why EVERYONE wanted him gone besides Russia. There was no explanation because there was never any investigation. Duh.
Can you explain why you stopped doing something you never did in the first place? Why won't you explain why you stopped having sex with infants? Knowing why is a good thing.

Yeah, you probably repeat the nonsense about him getting what was it, $2 billion from China, or was it Trillion? He would have more money than Trump if either figure were true, but they're just not. Look into it.

Oh no, sir. They have repeatedly said, alone and as a group, that they won't publicly oppose him on anything significant or usually even anything minor because they fear he will not support them, will "primary" them, and without his cultists they stand zero chance of being reelected.

Congress controls the purse strings. The president has no control over budget or taxation or whatever.

Veto is a good thing. We have too many laws (~10'000 roughly wherever you set foot), and we get more every year. Start repealing.

Correct. I will not be complaining about Biden, I will be complaining about congress. President can't sign a law that isn't handed to him by congress.

The treason accusations are subjective. It's not like he sold out defense secrets to an enemy state. He *may* have pressured Ukraine to divulge why the investigation into Hunter Biden was dropped without explanation.

Knowing why is a good thing. I also think it's fishy that a politically connected American who doesn't speak Ukrainian and is not 'an energy man' is sitting on the board of a foreign energy company in a country we helped commit a coup in and getting paid a few million+ 50k/month.

It's not that Republicans don't dare to cross him - they infight with him all the time. They also have no alternative to him right now that doesn't involve giving up power entirely.

-scheherazade

I looked up some stats just to see.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1123070/police-shootings-rate-ethnicity-us/

30 per million blacks fatally shot by police.
12 per million whites fatally shot by police.

So cops are roughly twice as likely to kill a black person, per racial group.

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045219gg

US being 76% white and 13% black, that works out to an aggregate ratio of roughly 9 whites killed per 4 blacks, per capita. In the end the death toll is high all around, white people aren't getting away scott free.

We should also consider poverty. Poverty and crime tend to track one another. It's safe to assume that areas with more crime will be more likely to experience police encounters, and hence more police shootings on average.

https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/poverty-rate-by-raceethnicity/?currentTimeframe=0&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%
22%7D

White poverty rate (9%) is roughly half of black poverty (22%), which implies that crime is also half as frequent among whites, which is roughly similar to the per capita difference in police shooting rate.

30/12 is 2.5
22/9 is 2.44
2.5 > 2.44, so it implies bias against blacks, but not as big as I expected.

As far as total people killed, cops kill plenty people of all races. The numbers don't look as lopsided as I expected, which surprises me.

I appreciate the solidarity among black people. They at least try to hold authorities to account.

White people couldn't care less when cops kill whites. They just shrug it off as 'well the guy must have done something to piss off the cop, so it was probably their own fault anyways'. You can sit on liveleak watching cops kill white people all day, but other white people never get worked up about it. It's a shame they don't have the same sense of unity as black people do.

I wish the protests were about police abuse in general. Or even goverment abuse. There are so many issues that need fixing (e.g. civil forfeiture, repeatedly trying people for the same event by tweaking charges until a conviction sticks, government budget being infinitely larger than a defendant's budget, government freezing a defendant's funds so they can't afford lawyers, etc).

-scheherazade

His story reminds me of my racing years....no team, no budget, only a deep desire to go fast. While I didn't come all the way across the Pacific, I did end up driving farther than that in a few years, easy when races are 4-500 miles away in the desert somewhere, then another 100-300 miles tearing through it before driving home. I was the only lone wolf in VORRA (Valley Off Road Racing Association) for a few years. Good times.
*promote *history

The Democrat can save their campaign ad production budget by replaying the words these Republican dumbass murderers said over and over again.

I have read NTSB air crash reports for decades...disasters are so rarely the result of just one mistake. And this is the same sort of thing. A series...and then lessons written in blood.

I had a friend who was a trained chemical engineer--he was always upset at BP's budgeting for maintenance and oversight. He felt they had a terrible history of accidents because they were always trying to cut it too close. That you just had to spend a certain amount of money to do chemical process and petrochemicals safely. He was right.

*promote
*quality

Administration's current budget (before today's emergency declaration) didn't have the budget to pay. That's why he had the deer in the headlights look. I mean, if I give him credit for having some intellectual process behind this. Of course, this is the guy whose agency released a faulty test to the states (faulty reagent) and did not release authority to the states or independent labs until today (along with FDA)---he kept trying to hold the authority and center for all tests in Atlanta; which had worked with Ebola and Zika. But; he didn't understand or was badly served by his lieutenants in understanding that this virus and occasion were different. I hope he hasn't killed a million people with a delay.

blackbear - hot girl bummer [big budget music video]

You're fucking dumb. I'm not a hypocrite. Do you know the details of withholding aid in Ukraine?

Do you remember when obama was president how the republican congress and senate was stonewalling everything he wanted? Do you remember complaints about executive orders?

The Ukraine Support Act proposed in 2014 did not make it out of committee in the house of representatives https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_Support_Act

THEREFORE

Obama issued two executive orders as part of a national emergency

https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2014/03/17/executive-order-blocking-property-additional-persons-contributing-situat

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-presidents-continuation-national-emergency-respect-ukraine/

There was a separate bill that guaranteed loans that was later passed but distribution of funds was done mostly through executive order in accordance with The International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

THEREFORE

Obama actually had prerogative and liberty with which to distribute funds and Biden was acting as his surrogate at the time.

In other words, the law was not broken because there wasn't a law to break that existed.

----------------------------------------------------------


THIS IS DISTINCT AND DIFFERENT FROM WHAT DONALD TRUMP DID IN SEVERAL WAYS, BUT DISTINCTLY THAT HE SIGNED A LAW SAYING THAT HE HAD TO DISTRIBUTE THE MONEY

In 2019, the appropriations committee passed this and made it a part of an appropriations bill which the president (Trump) signed as part of a budget regulation

That is the difference

And it's why Biden can use those funds in a discretionary way and have it be legal, and Trump can use them in a discretionary way and have it be illegal (not just because he's investigating a political rival, because he fucking signed the law that said that he had to do it).

---------------------------------------------------


The retort is "what about Obama" but the circumstances are different and as much as, and as simple as, it was not against the law for him to do that because the house and the senate didn't pass a law saying he had to do anything with money for Ukraine, that was part of an executive order which gives him that discretion. Donald Trump could have issued an executive order rather than sign off on that budget And it would suddenly be legal.

^^^^^^^^ Don't misunderstand me. ^^^^^^^^^^^^
^^^^^^^^ Don't misunderstand me. ^^^^^^^^^^^^
^^^^^^^^ Don't misunderstand me. ^^^^^^^^^^^^

I'm not saying he's doing something illegal and jumping up and down and squealing and shitting myself like a housewife discovering daytime television.

I'm making an observation about how he doesn't care about what laws are passed or not in a more general way.

>>>>>>>>>>>>He just doesn't care about following the law.

Still, that's a separate issue from rooting out corruption overall versus bringing the entire weight of the federal government, not to mention the government in Ukraine, on Joe Biden.

Last I checked no executive order no bill no resolution said "Target Joe Biden specifically" And on the phone call released from Donald Trump in the White House there's only one name that's mentioned.

While I'm all for progressive taxes, it would be nice if this presentation had just 1 graph that was absolute dollars paid in taxes, not always having the Y-axis a "% of total income" ... then we'd see that those rich people are paying hundreds to thousands of times more than the poor folks.

It would also be nice if individuals could choose what projects/departments/agencies their tax money (above some per-person baseline) went to, rather than budgets being proposed by executive branch and approved by congress. But if you hate political ads now, such a system would flood all channels of advertisement with "choose XYZ before April 15th!"

So, you're ignorant of the fact that most forests, approximately 60% in California, are national/federal forests under federal control, with only about 3% being state controlled? The rest are privately owned.
You're likely also ignorant of the fact that your messiah has cut the already wholly inadequate funding to manage them by around $2 billion per year nation wide, threatening to drop that to zero in California, all the while ignorantly claiming it's the state who is not managing it's responsibilities.
California, conversely, has budgeted >$2 billion to manage state run forest lands.
Requests to the national forestry department for better management of overgrown and unmanaged federal forests have been met with threats from Trump to remove all federal funding.

The nation's forest service is so poorly funded under Trump that they can't even afford a spokesperson to answer those accusations, there's just a recording saying there's no staff due to budget cuts.

So much for the promise to fix the nation's infrastructure.

Side note, Paradise Ca is in conservative Butte county....burned to nothing. ($16.5 billion and 85 deaths) That fire started on federal land.
Redding is in conservative Shasta county, badly damaged (>$21 billion with 8 deaths.) That fire also started on federal lands.
But keep blaming liberals, it's all you're good at. *facepalm