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Would You Take This Bet?

RedSky says...

Your car example has a sample of 1 though, I'm specifically talking about large samples.

I think you're missing the point, when you increase the sample size of a favorable bet, eventually the probability of you losing money in the series of bets becomes negligible.

Take the video's example of say risking a coin toss of $10 for a potential $15.

You only need to win 40% of the time to break even ($15 * 0.4 - $10 * 0.6 = 0).

To work out the probability of this for different sample sizes we just look at the cumulative binomial distribution:

For 10 samples, 40% success or more occurs 82.8% of the time.
For 100 samples, 40% success or more occurs 98.2% of the time.
For 1000 samples, 40% success or more approximates 100% of the time.

If you want to work it out yourself or visualize it, you can use a tool like this:

http://homepage.stat.uiowa.edu/~mbognar/applets/bin.html

bcglorf said:

It is. The thing is can you afford the risk. $10 most people can afford the risk without going homeless, but maybe they would have to skip pizza that night and make KD. Just increase the bet, If you could bet your car, today against somebody's porsche in a coin toss, it's a great bet. You also could very reasonably choose not to because the loss of your car is a greater disadvantage to you than gaining a new porsche. It's cost of opportunity, and for a wealthy person, risking a cheap car for a much better one at 50/50 is a bet they can afford to take. For a pizza delivery driver supporting their family it's a choice between maybe coming home with a porsche or coming home without a car, without a job and no means to buy a new car any time soon either.

best anarchist speech i have ever heard

newtboy says...

Well, I see the options as either working the system to make it better, complaining about it but doing nothing, or discarding it in hope you can make one that's better at a later time. I think it may be you who's more optimistic on this occasion. ;-)
I see the system as broken, but not irrevocably so. It may be likely that it won't be fixed, but it's only a certainty if no one tries to fix it.
I learned a lesson at 4 years old. My dad was drunk and told me to clean my room to be spotless in 5 min. I just said "NO!" and was punched across the room. The lesson was, no matter how wrong authority may be, simply defying it openly nearly always leads to you losing, not authority, and usually you lose far worse than you imagined you might. It's not 'right' or 'fair', but it is reality.

enoch said:

@newtboy
we agree.
i think the difference lies in this:
1.you attempt to change the system by using the very system you acknowledge is corrupt.i find this extremely noble,and yes..optimistic (sincerely) ,but is about as effective as chewing bubble gum to solve an algebra equation.

2.i find the system to have made itself irrelevant by the very virtues it purports to uphold.
equal under the law? not even close.
for the people by the people? oh yeah? which people? certainly not you or i.
defense and security? if that means wars of aggression.
civil liberties? for whom? in this security and surveillance state?we are the most surveilled...the most propagandized..the most indoctrinated.

the system we have now is no longer representative of the original intent of our forefathers.who were looking to build an empire but as a republic,pretty inventive and ingenious.

i do not submit to this authority because they lost the right to that authority.
i know the real power is where it has always resided:the people.

the system is broken and it is time it is taken down.

but as you stated,some are under-educated and i'll add that some are over-educated and indoctrinated.either way,we find ourselves in a society of vapid consumerism,immense inequality and where we,shamefully,criminalize the poor.

so when is this revolution starting? i'll bring the beer.
cuz i aim to misbehave....

I'm Just A Bill vs Executive Order - SNL

Taint says...

I didn't intend to, but watched the whole video. So funny.

Reminds me of something the comedian Doug Stanhope said once, i'll paraphrase from memory: "If you lose your job to an illegal alien with no training or education who doesn't even speak our language... then your job sucks."

grahamslam said:

That was the greatest thing I've seen in a while. I'm still LingOL!

The Down-Tuning Experiment

SquidCap says...

C or B, that's the lowest you can go with 22/24 fret guitar.. After that you need to start extending neck to get intonation right and you lose more attack the lower you go. Not to mention that B is ~60Hz, pretty much everything below that don't form decent chords specially with heavy distortion. I have drop B tuning (B-F#-B-E-A-C#) on same looking sunburst Fender strato '80 and i've already run out of room fix intonation (thank goodness for my Rockinger Tremolo bridge circa '81 and it's flexibility..)

Sleepy Driver Causes Three-Vehicle Crash in Pennsylvania

yellowc says...

He also forgot how to use the horn or headlights?

If you had alerted that lady she was driving that badly, she may very well have thought "Oh shit, I must be bad, better pull over".

I think many people have experienced feeling sleepy at the wheel and often you lose your judgement skills due to this tiredness, you really need some outside intervention to alert you and just filming it is really not the right thing to do.

Cool racing action (formula vee @ bathurst)

newtboy says...

Yeah, when the car weighs nothing, it doesn't take much power to go fast! It's all about power to weight ratio. These cars come close to the power to weight ratio of Nascar cars weighing 3500lbs with 750hp, these weigh 1025 and use 1.6liter water cooled VW motors, making it possible that they have a better power to weight ratio than Nascar, and they definitely handle better.
My off road race buggy had a weight requirement to be at least 1500lbs, I had to add lead weights. Even at that, a 1776 VW race motor almost had it do wheelies! The light weight makes for better handling too, but it also means once you lose traction, it's unlikely you'll get it back. In off road, it also means higher jumps and softer landings.

SwimWithSharks said:

when somebody talks about formula vee being basically a vw beetle engine on ancient suspensions and not much else you wouldn't think it'd look this thrilling: I'd never heard of this before driving this type of car in a videogame and found this video while looking for driving tips

Cat Responds To Owner Coughing

rayok says...

If you're signed into YouTube you can go to: https://www.youtube.com/account_playback and uncheck the option for annotations. That turns them off by default but you can turn them on if you want from the player's setting thing. Sucky part is, you lose the easy ability to click on the boxes people put on their videos for related stuff.

ravioli said:

Is there a way to disable permanently stupid annotations in Youtube ??

Blue Heron catches and eats gopher

Last Week Tonight - Ferguson and Police Militarization

VoodooV says...

Yet you keep responding. I must be pushing your buttons again ☺

If a guy like me on the Internet can make you angry so easily and make you lose your cool, I'm going go ahead and say you're not a cop, or a very bad one, or just a fucking desk jockey. In either case, the instant you try to bring your rl into an Internet argument, you've lost because you can't stand on your arguments merits and you try (and fail) to make appeals to your "authority"

Hell if you are a cop, you've threatened on sift lounge to smash my face in... So can I have your name and badge number so I can make some phone calls?

Didn't think so. So not only are you a violent cop, you're a coward

It's interesting that you called me a punk instead of a thug. Obviously you think I'm white then.

lantern53 said:

You are just a trolling punk, so why waste my time?

Also, I am still a cop, so...wrong again.

Money & Debt: Crash Course World History 202

Trancecoach says...

Speaking of lawn mowing, here in California, it seems the government is playing a game of good old, "Heads, I win; tails, you lose:"

California homeowners threatened with a $500 fine for letting their lawn go brown (and thereby driving down the value of "their" own home) during the drought:

"On the same day the state approved mandatory outdoor watering restrictions with the threat of $500 fines, the Southern California couple received a letter from their city threatening a $500 penalty for not watering their brown lawn."

It seems that California has a specific (if unannounced to the public) policy of keeping housing prices inflated just to get people out of the state. (And of course, the state gets their $500 either way.)

Lunatic fake feminist disturbs the relative peace

newtboy says...

I can't see anyone in this video acting reasonably or logically.
If you're going to jump into the face of angry nutjobs, you might expect them to react like angry nutjobs.
If you really feel 'assaulted', the proper recourse is not to get back in your 'assaulter's' face and grab the camera (which it SEEMED she did). That makes it mutual combat and you lose the upper hand legally.
This does not excuse their actions, but does make them predictable.

First Roller Coaster Ride At 78 Years Old

Black Jeopardy - Saturday Night Live

Yogi says...

They also said "Of course we started late..." and it's a sketch about how a Black version of Jeopardy would be inherently stupid not an intellectual pursuit.

So if you're going for reverse racism, I think you lose, if they're going for funny, I think they lose it wasn't all that funny.

lantern53 said:

White people always be lying!

Racist statement, much?

funny stuff though

Man Escapes 5 Yr Sentence After Dash Cam Footage Clears Him

lantern53 says...

My example of the severed heads in the car trunk was taken from a book written by a judge. It was his statement that he wanted to hear it was a legal search whether it was or not, because he would not want a serial killer to walk on a 'technicality'. I know that in this case a 'technicality' is the law, but the law changes based on what people want.
I have never lied in court and a cop would be a fool to lie in court because perjury means you can't be a cop and if you lose your job, you lose your pension.

Kevin O'Leary on global inequality: "It's fantastic!"

enoch says...

@Trancecoach
ok.
i always agree with you to a point and then you lose me.
i agree that commerce and free markets (with non-aggression) can be a good thing.
i agree that a bloated and corrupted government,bought by those who wish to game the system,a bad thing.
i also agree that inequality is not necessarily a bad thing.

but as @newtboy pointed out.history is a great teacher.
so while inequality is not really my main issue.fairness and justice IS a main issue.

the new global mafia principle only serves the powerful.
and while it may create prosperity for some,it emiserates far more than it helps.
so we both agree that this plutocracy HAS to go,what do we put in its place to keep the scales of fairness and justice equal? giving ALL an even playing field?

we both agree on the problem.
what do you suggest is a fair a just solution?

i know what mine would be but i curious what you envision the solution to be.



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