And that is why you don't throw batteries into a fire kids.

ExxonMobil had the Bush administration lobbying strongly to replace the chair of the IPCC with a more agreeable alternative, which we know about because of a leaked memo. So let us not pretend that the IPCC are above the skepticism of being politically influenced. The name "intergovernmental panel" says it all, in my opinion; i had assumed the I stood for Independent.

I don't apologise for not reading the entire thread because i noticed that in your first post you said the following, and it gave me cause to doubt your take on the science in the rest of the thread. I've been in too many discussions in which i spent hours researching only to find out people were completely wrong, and i spent 45 mins on your first paragraph already. Anyway here is the quote again:

"IPCC best estimates for 2100 are about 1.5 degree increase, so another hundred years and increase that is about twice as bad. Of course, it's twice as bad as what we saw the last 100 yeas and not only survived, but thrived under."

Firstly, the planet's flora and fauna have most certainly NOT thrived during that time. Humans have flourished by exploiting nature, so yes we have 'thrived'. In the same way that if i were to steal money from a dozen old ladies, i might say i was thriving even though i was out of work during the economic downturn. Pretty much every source agrees that the one thing the ecosystem is not doing is thriving - we are in or on the verge of the sixth mass extinction on the planet. So this is an inspiring yet futile "hurrah for us!" bravado that ignores the truth; we stand on the deck of a galleon around a big bonfire, ripping up planks and chopping up the boat, throwing it on the fire and going "we're all lovely and warm!" as we sit lower and lower in the water.

Secondly and in my opinion most significantly, according to the IPCC conclusions on page 8 you have used the term "best estimates" to mean "best case scenario" rather than "most reliable estimate" - which is why i have downvoted that comment, as it is misleading and incorrect. I would say it's cynically misleading, but i suspect you've lifted that from a cynical source rather than being cynical yourself.

I don't know if you realise, but you referred to only one result out of four, the rest of which strongly indicate a greater than 2 degree rise. Your reference is to RCP 2.6 which assumes CO2 emissions peak between 2010 and 2020. A decade in which the most populous countries on the planet are developing and a decade in which we must start to reduce global emissions so that we have a good chance of your best case scenario happening. We are already half way through it, and according to Mauna Loa observatory and every other source i could find (including EPA, NOAA and IEA) we are still increasing our CO2 emissions year on year including this year, where we've broken the 400ppm milestone, 120ppm greater than pre industrial times, half of which occured since 1980 (Pieter Tans).

So in fairness, you might have underplayed the IPCC report (which you seem to get almost all of your information from) in as much as newtboy might have overestimated the dangers and rapidity of climate change. I think you're out on a limb by telling him that the scientific community disagrees with him and he's using dodgy sources, when you've cherry picked one quarter of a conclusion from one source (the IPCC) to argue for your best case scenario which you refer to (unscientifically and incorrectly) as the "best estimate".

However, i do at least appreciate that despite your doubts (and in my opinion, slight confusion over the results, i don't think you're being intentionally misleading) you are very much behind changing our behaviour and using resources that are more appropriate... and that's what really matters right now is that people recognise the need to change.

The word stereotype originally comes from printing and simply means a copy of the original, i.e. possessing the same traits. There's no evaluation, simply expectation.

The standard model for this is that stereotype leads to prejudice which leads to discrimination.

i.e. because you're wearing a bladed glove and have a mutilated face, I expect that you are some kind of nightmare monster. This leads me to a prejudice that because nightmare monsters have tried to kill me in the past, I don't like them.
Therefore, I will actively discriminate against you by throwing you in a fire.

Thought -> emotion -> action.

But pretty much everything else is right.... except I suck at basketball.

...and as for the ONLY cause for bankruptcy anywhere is the inability to pay for one's debts. The white, pimple-faced burger joint fry cook driving the Hummer wouldn't ultimately benefit from a $1,000,000 gift. He'd probably go buy a $750,000 house and wonder why he's bankrupt on land taxes. The banker who lost everything making margin calls on insider trading wouldn't have that million either. The family with the child suffering from cancer might benefit, but if they bought insurance rather than continuing to smoke 3 packs a day they wouldn't need it to begin with.

I'm saying people mostly go bankrupt because of their own stupid decisions. Very few are due to outside conditions. Gifting them money is just throwing gas on the fire.

"Give a man a fish" yadda yadda yadda.

You'll find no argument from me about whether our government has been rattling the hornets nest over there for some time. However, I don't place the blame for Muslim outrage on America, or the KGB, I place the blame on Islam. The reason they are so stirred up is because their religion teaches them to hate Jews, Christians, and anyone else who isn't a Muslim. In their eyes we are all the devil and need to be destroyed, or subjugated.

What's going on in the middle east right now, specifically in Iran, cannot be understood unless it is seen through the lens of their particular eschatology (beliefs about the end times). What the Iranians believe is that the coming of their Messiah, called the Mahdi, or the 12th Imam, is imminent. They believe what ushers in the Mahdis return is a series of great wars at the end of time. They also believe that Iran will be the spark to that flame. This is what Irans top general said recently:

"With having the treasure of the Holy Defense, Valayat (Guardianship of the Jurist) and martyrs, we are ready for a big war Of course this confrontation has always continued; however, since we are in the era of The Coming, this war will be a significant war

The Islamic republic is going to create a new environment on the world stage, and without a doubt victory awaits those who continue the path of martyrs. … we can defeat the enemy at its home and our nation is ready for jihad. Martyrdom has taught us to avoid wrong paths and return to the right path. Martyrdom is the right path, it’s the path to God"

http://glblgeopolitics.wordpress.com/2012/09/21/iran-official-big-war-means-mahdis-coming/

So what you have here, essentially, is a doomsday cult looking to acquire a nuclear weapon so that they can start a global war to usher in the coming of their Messiah. They believe that their Messiah will subjugate every nation under Islam and bring about worldwide sharia law.

So, everyone who thinks that the middle east is a problem we can straighten out with diplomacy, or instituting democratic reforms, is extremely foolish. It's the same with these sanctions; Iran is not going to break or change their mind. Their top general stated it in very clear terms; that they believe martyrdom is the only true path to God. It is reported that their leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, ascends to the sky (in the spirit) once a year to meet with the Mahdi, and that the Mahdi ordered him to continue the nuclear program because it would be what facilitates his coming.

http://www.wnd.com/2012/01/iran-preparing-now-for-armageddon/

If you look at Ahmadinejad's speech to the UN last week, it was all about the soon coming of the Mahdi:

http://flashtrafficblog.wordpress.com/2012/09/26/exclusive-ahmadinejad-gives-most-detailed-explanation-of-twelfth-imam-to-date-says-mahdi-will-soon-re
ign-over-whole-world/

This is why our policies in the Mideast fail again and again. Everything we try to do there ends up creating the exact opposite effect. Even when they themselves overthrow repressive governments, they end up electing even more repressive governments. It's not a problem we can solve. This is the way things are headed, and there is absolutely nothing we can do about it. Their Messiah is most likely our Antichrist and regardless of how it all comes about, the end result was predicted over 2000 years ago;

There will be a one world government, one world economy and one world religion, with the Antichrist at the head. There will be some kind of global calamity in the near future, such as an economic crisis, or perhaps a war, involving Israel, and that is when the Antichrist will enter the world stage. He will come preaching peace and safety, and will head off the calamity by establishing a 7 year peace treaty between Israel and the rest of the world. At around the 3.5 year mark the Antichrist will take off his mask and declare himself to be God, and cause the entire world to worship him. Anyone who doesn't know Jesus Christ at this time will follow the antichrist. Anyone who takes the mark of the beast will be eternally condemned. If you're curious about what the mark of the beast is, it will probably be something like this:



The purpose of the mark is to control who can buy and sell. Anyone without the mark will be unable to participate in the economic system.

Don't count on believing later, or that you won't be deceived into taking the mark, because it will be under threat of death. Today is the day of salvation, so do not harden your heart because He is calling to you. The fact is that He loves you and is knocking on your door:

Revelation 3:20

Behold, I stand at the door and knock. If anyone hears my voice and opens the door, I will come in to him and eat with him, and he with me.

>> ^Stormsinger:

The problem with that claim is that the animosity goes back well before Pacepa's time. We overthrew the elected government of Iran in 1953, because they were threatening oil company profits. By 1967, the KGB was doing very little except throwing gasoline on a fire we'd already started and built up to four alarm status. It's not reasonable to try and put the blame on the KGB...it clearly belongs on our own government agencies, which have proven over and over again to be extremely shortsighted and unwilling to accept any ethical boundaries.

The problem with that claim is that the animosity goes back well before Pacepa's time. We overthrew the elected government of Iran in 1953, because they were threatening oil company profits. By 1967, the KGB was doing very little except throwing gasoline on a fire we'd already started and built up to four alarm status. It's not reasonable to try and put the blame on the KGB...it clearly belongs on our own government agencies, which have proven over and over again to be extremely shortsighted and unwilling to accept any ethical boundaries.
>> ^shinyblurry:

>> ^Stormsinger:
>> ^shinyblurry:
@enoch, the origin of the animosity towards Americans has its source in a KGB program designed to exploit the deeply ingrained anti-semitism in the middle east and turn it towards the US. They sent, hired, bought off hundreds or even thousands of agents in the middle east to spread the idea around that America is a zionist regime controlled by the jews. That's why you have Arab leaders saying things like this:
htt

p://www.jihadwatch.org/2012/07/ahmadinejad-american-people-lack-freedom-of-choice-it-is-the-zionists-that-decide-who-will-become-th.html
Yes I believe the corporation control the media, and the elites control the corporations, but who controls the elites? When you talk about a conspiracy, I know the actual conspiracy because the bible details it all: Satan is the ruler of this world and in the last days he is going to establish a one world government, one world economy and one world religion all centered around the antichrist. The elites you're talking about are all globalists trying to establish this very thing. Today you can see bible prophecy unfolding before your very eyes. So, I don't trust the media to report the truth as such and I certainly don't rely on it as my primary source of information about what is going on in the world.
>> ^enoch:
@shinyblurry do not get caught in the trap my friend.do not rely on corporate "news" to enlighten you concerning the situation in the middle east nor the origins of the anymosity towards america.truth does not suit their purposes in controlling your opinion

Alright! Who stole shiny's meds this time?

hehe
I know how it sounds, but this information comes from the highest ranking intelligence official ever to defect to the United States.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ion_Mihai_Pacepa
The CIA apparently put him to good use so I think his testimony is trustworthy. You can read what he said about it here:
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/218533/russian-footpr
ints/ion-mihai-pacepa#

>> ^bareboards2:

I hope this doesn't throw gasoline on the fire. That asshole was loved by many. If they kill people for burning a Koran, I shudder to think about the next weeks.

Hey BB, I echo your hopes that this doesn't happen. That said, I do want to underscore that OBL gave the US little choice after what he has done. If there are any repercussions as a result of this, I would assert that this is an excuse rather than a reason.


To build on and slightly modify your analogy..... the crappy US foreign policy overall since the 50's represents gallons and gallons of fuel. If anything happens because of this, it's a spark to that tinder.

>> ^bareboards2:

I hope this doesn't throw gasoline on the fire. That asshole was loved by many. If they kill people for burning a Koran, I shudder to think about the next weeks.


I think you are correct...
A facebook page dedicated to Osama's memory and greatness:
Can't get the url to work here... seems like it has been hijacked by anti-Osama fans already though...

broken url:
http://www.facebook.com/pages/We-are-all-Osama-Bin-Laden-%D9%83%D9%84%D9%86%D8%A7-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%A7%D9%85%D8%A9-%D8%A8%D9%86-%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%86
/212908885395072

I hope this doesn't throw gasoline on the fire. That asshole was loved by many. If they kill people for burning a Koran, I shudder to think about the next weeks.

A newbie's opinion:

Volumptuous saw a beehive that someone had recently poked with a stick - and went and got another stick. There were plenty of other ways to protest that weren't going to throw oil on the fire by deliberately flaunting the very rules that were being discussed, but that was not the choice that was made.

The management around here has shown incredible patience for putting up with all of this squabbling the way they have.

So if we're going to take Hamas to task on their ambulances then let's go, and unless we want to be branded as hypocrites then we'll want the Israeli government in the Hague and behind bars for their decades of war crimes against the Palestinian people as well.


Finally something I think we can both agree on, at least mostly. I'd say that would be a good first step, but you simply can't limit the Israel-Palestine conflict to just those two nations, I think that overly simplistic to the point of being false.

Let's be honest about the conflict. Even if Hezbollah, Hamas and all the palestinian people united to make a well co-ordinated surprise assault on Israel, the IDF would have it stomped out entirely within the week. The fighting between Israel and Palestinian militants is a real security threat to both, but I think it is only a small part of a bigger picture. It's like looking at the Korean or Vietnam wars without talking about the tensions between the US and USSR.

The real tension around Israel then is in fact between them and Syria and Iran. Syria and Iran together pose a vastly more credible threat to Israel. Both Syria and Iran fund Hezbollah and Hamas as proxies to strike at Israel without mounting direct military action. Hamas and Hezbollah then become sacrificial lambs/martyrs to Syrian and Iranian goals. Dying as underdogs to make Israel play the role of the bad guy. Israel for it's part plays right into it, as their foreign policy can accept collateral civilian casualites more readily than it can weakness. It's all a big mess like most conflicts in the world, but simply saying that Israel should be condemned and Hamas forgiven is throwing wood on the fire.


And if we want to talk about Hamas' charter which calls for the destruction of Israel, then let's talk about it:

In 2006 Ismail Haniyeh became Hamas prime minister. He offered the Bush administration a truce in return for an end to the illegal Israeli occupation. He was completely ignored.


Well let's talk about Hamas' charter then. Ismail Haniyeh's offer for a truce may not have been taken seriously because his foregin minister(and a Hamas co-founder) stated the following after their election "dreams of hanging a huge map of the world on the wall at my Gaza home which does not show Israel on it...I hope that our dream to have our independent state on all historic Palestine (including Israel). This dream will become real one day. I'm certain of this because there is no place for the state of Israel on this land". Surely Hamas own charter and statements by other co-founders like Abdel Aziz al-Rantissi(who also denies the holocaust) stating their goal is "to remove Israel from the map" make negotiations with them difficult to neigh on impossible.

I know you strongly disagree, but I am willing to understand Israeli relutance to trust a truce with an organization with that kind of leadership. A truce that is openly discussed as acceptable only because 'a phased liberation of all historic Palestine may be necessary' just doesn't strike me as in Israels best interests.

When helping my uncles build their cabins at the lake, we used to throw sawdust on the fire and watch the *whooomp* on a much smaller and safer scale.

if the law passes, how long before 'Good Samaritan Release Forms' get passed out? after all, while someone may be asking for help at the time, who knows what will happen once they get to a point where they're 'better' and are seeking monetary damages.

fight laws with laws. you could throw someone into a fire as long as you have them sign a release form first.

Issykitty throws gasoline on the fire.

I don't mean to throw gas on this fire (but I guess I am ) But I had to share this because it made my jaw drop when I saw it.

And for context's sake, Michael Richards' character in the movie isn't black, he's a master of disguise who dresses up in ridiculous disguises for comedic effect. (Italic for subjectivity.)