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bobknight33 (Member Profile)

newtboy says...

So, Huckabee Sanders is trying to claim absolute Governor immunity to get out of lecturngate. She had her MAGA AG release a letter saying so.

Again, it’s not that she didn’t steal the money, it’s not that she didn’t falsify government records to hide it, it’s that she’s above the law….exactly Trump’s defense, and as anti American as it gets. No one is above the law in America, NO ONE.
You maga idiots don’t even understand the difference between a democratic republic and a monarchy or dictatorship.

newtboy (Member Profile)

bobknight33 says...

The New Republic.

Really -- Leftest owned and published rag. --- Clearly biased
Since 2016, TNR has been owned by Win McCormack, a co-founder of the left-wing Mother Jones magazine.


Yet another Big fucking nothing burger form the big zero himself.

Try again TOOLboy

newtboy said:

BTW- Trump’s closest advisors have testified that Trump, contrary to his claims, never told the rioters to leave or stay peaceful on Jan 6, Dan Scovino wrote the messages to “stay peaceful” and later “Go home. We love you. You’re very special.” while Trump wrote the incendiary comments like “Mike Pence didn’t have the courage to do what should have been done.”
Smith has all the meta data proving who wrote what and when and it’s horrific for Diaper Don.
So much for that part of his defense.
https://newrepublic.com/post/177917/trump-january-6-tweet-peaceful-protest-defense-didnt-write-it

bobknight33 (Member Profile)

newtboy says...

I do enjoy those, way more than anyone within smelling distance! I’ve seen dozens….they’re usually way more viscous, I expect one going after his stink soon, now that everyone knows how embarrassing it is to him. I’m surprised they didn’t mention Melania, another sore spot.
Gotta say I’m shocked you chose one where they messed with his drive, most times he still drives OK….not this time. Granted, this one they went REALLY easy on him, which probably explains it being your choice..there are so many more where they really stick it to him. It seems almost like getting actually pissed off helps his drive.

Are you enjoying the MAGA holiday? Did you guys get away with any fake party plans, or were they all discovered like the GOP’S/Manly Traitor’s fake book signing party that was cancelled?

AMERICA WILL NEVER FORGET, 3 YEARS AGO A MADMAN DUE TO VACATE THE WHITEHOUSE AND HIS TREASONOUS POLITICAL PARTY TRIED THE FIRST COUP AGAINST AMERICA AND MAKE IT A MONARCHY/DICTATORSHIP, AND FAILED MISERABLY, AND ONE POLITICAL PARTY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THAT MADMAN AND HIS TRAITOROUS FOLLOWERS IN HIS QUEST TO END DEMOCRACY IN AMERICA.

I’m celebrating the day the American Democratic Republic wavered but in the end stood strong against its most dangerous foe in history.

bobknight33 said:

Enjoy

bobknight33 (Member Profile)

newtboy says...

You should meet yourself.

You don’t post those anymore (you used to until I beat you up over ridiculous lies and suppositions about Biden with proven facts about Trump, once again proving the accusation is an admission) because there’s absolutely zero evidence of any such thing, but tons and tons of payoffs, multiple unreported hidden secret foreign Trump “bribe me here” accounts including but not limited to unreported accounts in Azerbaijan, Brazil, Canada, China, Dominican Republic, Georgia, Grenada, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Mexico, Panama, Philippines, Puerto Rico, Qatar, South Korea, Saint Martin, Saint Vincent, Turkey, United Arab Emirates and United Kingdom, actual trades and offers to trade personal payments/favors to Trump/fam for stolen top secret classified documents PROVEN against Trump, and multiple actual trials against him for criminal abuses of office, absolutely nothing against Biden besides ridiculous whining liars, like you.

I would say you should stop looking stupid, but you are what you are…with you it’s not a “look”.

Everything I posted is fact, court filings and actual reporting of what those involved said (with no opinion added).
Remember, you recently posted gleefully about the one Democrat ACCUSED of having child porn…no conviction there…why jump the gun? Why can’t you ever wait until news is “real”….or is the definition of “real” or the “rule” different for you than everyone else…or can you dish it out but are way too thin skinned to take it? *ding ding ding ding

Tell me what isn’t legit. I double dog dare you….can’t call you a tool, tools are useful. You are a fool, and a willing one.

I know you wish I would stop rubbing your party’s constant, unbelievable, history making criminality in your face daily…but more is prosecuted and more are convicted daily, more top Republicans are convicted in $60 million bribery schemes, more go on the run from the law daily, more terrorist Maggots are fleeing to Belarus and Russia to avoid extradition daily. Certainly you want to know what your team is up to/dragging you into.

bobknight33 said:

You are the most gullible person I know.

Biden /China/ Ukraine payoffs are more legit story. I dont post those because nothing has yet to come of those.

Quit looking stupid and just wait for reality to catch up to the fake news --- IE post when news is real.

Till then just stop begin a blind tool.

bobknight33 (Member Profile)

newtboy says...

Wow do you have reality 100% backwards.
Hunter never worked for the American people, so could not sell out American people like every one of Trump’s children did. He did not get paid billions, he’s never had billions…unlike Jared that was paid 2 billion for Trump’s protection of the crown prince and weapons sales.

Hillary, how did she sell out America? Benghazi? Emails? You got anything that hasn’t been debunked by Republican committees a dozen times? I thought not. Clinton delusion syndrome.

Joe…sell out America? Lol. Give examples, not stupid internet memes claiming Hunter is one of the super rich and powerful along with public train riding Joe.

Trump force one riding crushing debt Trump, no he never would sell out for money. (Spent $60k of donations on Melania’s dress buyer, and another on Newsom’s ex shouting nonsense for 2 minutes, but not a dime on fighting election fraud or supporting Republican candidates he raised it for…permanently barred from charities because of fraud, fraudulent businesses, fraudulent school bilking millions from the poor…the list goes on forever, everything he does includes fraud.)

Trump sold out America for 4 years straight, taking Russia, China, even N Koreans side over America almost every time. Handing over Afghanistan, Crimea, Ukraine, etc. to our enemies.
Trump sold out America over the election, trying dozens of verified vote fraud schemes and he still lost the election badly, then he sold out America again by trying a violent coup to turn us into a banana republic dictatorship.

Trump stole top secret nuclear documents for personal gain, whether to sell, barter for protection, or use to blackmail America, he stole them for personal gain and to harm America, no other reason to have nuclear secrets….none at all. That’s treason plain and simple.

Your delusion has removed you from reality. Trump and family sold America over and over and over and over and over…you can’t point to a single instance from Hunter, Clinton, or Biden selling America for personal gain, I can point to 6 verified undeniable times Trump sold us out for millions and even billions in personal/familial gains from China, Russia, Saidi Arabia, Russian Ukrainians, even the Taliban….

Trump is an asshole who gets things done for himself, and you are a cultist that thinks that’s the same as working for America. He destroyed faith in every government agency he put his people in, destroyed our international standing, destroyed our economy, destroyed our employment numbers, cost >$500 million for his coup, 1 million dead Americans for his denial of the pandemic, and has divided the nation to the point that almost 1/2 the nation wants civil war….and they think that’s patriotic.

Again, just to name 3, Trump sold us out to China for $36 million for Ivanka and however many millions were in his secret Chinese bank accounts they used to bribe him (how’s that amazing trade deal coming?), to Russia for untold funding including hundred million loans he hasn’t paid back (yep, Rusher), to the Saudis for a $2 billion no show contract with Jared so we would sell them billions in high tech weapons.
You can’t list a single sell out from those you listed. Not one. 😂

All 3 living in your head for free….you even make up interesting back stories for them to keep them there. You love them so much you’ve given up your sanity to keep them in your head. 🤦‍♂️

Trump only still gets attention because he’s still attempting to destroy America actively, now with a civil war over his criminal actions, solely to save himself from prosecution, not for America one whit, he doesn’t care one whit how badly he’s damaged America either.

bobknight33 said:

Hunter, Joe and Hillary sold out American people for personal gain.
Trump is just at butt hole who get things done for Americans, Not sold out

TX law & tattoos

newtboy says...

You certainly pretended to be, and pretended to have first hand knowledge of the situation, and knowledge of what all Texan Christians all think on the subject. Turns out you don't know shit first hand, and are arguing based on uninformed opinions you hold, not knowledge. It's called a lie by omission.

Texans didn't vote for this, their representatives did. You are telling Texans what to think and do....insisting because a majority are Christian they must be anti choice, and since pro choice people lost one battle they should just leave Texas, but the same doesn't go for Texans who are anti choice and had lost every battle until this one. See how infantile your argument is now?

America is a representative democracy....a democratic republic, not a democracy. Some places like California have direct voter approved laws, so are partly democratic, but mostly representatives choose our laws and path. Assuming that because one person wins an election means all their voters approve of everything they do shows a naivete usually reserved for pre kindergarten kids.

Anom212325 said:

Lol when did I ever say I'm Christian or from Texas or even from the Un-United States of America...

"who knows what people in Texas should think" lol that is what you numbnuts are doing. Bitching about a law being implemented that you don't agree with and telling Texans what to think.

I'm just pro democracy and anti abortion, mocking the morons that's purposely bringing down their own country from within. Its so sad/pathetic what you guy's have become in just 5 years. Rome is burning and yet you are still at each others throats...

TX law & tattoos

newtboy says...

No, it's a medical, legal, and religious fact. One you disagree with, but accepted worldwide by governments and populations.

Doesn't the bible say murder is ok? Yes, yes it does. I do think there are many instances when murder is ok, like self defense. That is a widely accepted position too.

You fuck right off out of the U.S.....they legalized abortions first. If fucking right off is your rule, you go first, you were pissed at a political loss first.....then there's no abortion issue, outlaw it in your banana republic. Was it that hard? Fuck off moron.

Yeah, I have fucked right off out of Texas (born and raised there, btw), and I took my moderate estate with me...my parents did too. Texas's loss, they need people with money and property, and educations. They have just ostracized a majority of them. Enjoy bankruptcy, and prepare for most states and countries to stop doing business with Texas. Isolation didn't work for Texas the first time, it's not likely to work now.

Anom212325 said:

"But you intentionally ignores the fact that the unborn aren't yet people." That is not a fact, that is a opinion. YOURS. Not those who are against abortions. YOU are telling them murder is ok. Think about that for a second...

"America has legalized abortions in every state by law because the majority wants it. Don't like it, fuck right off. " Finally you get it. Now fuck right off out of Texas. Was it that hard...

bobknight33 (Member Profile)

newtboy says...

Arizona secretary of state, Katie Hobbs sent a letter to the Arizona attorney general yesterday asking him to please investigate Donald Trump. And of course his close allies, Rudy Giuliani, and possibly even Sidney Powell for possible election interference in the state of Arizona.

Here's what happened in case you missed it last week, it was revealed that both the Trump white house and Rudy Giuliani on separate occasions and on multiple occasions made phone calls to officials in the state of Arizona following the November election, trying to get them to stop the counting, begging to be called back. In fact, it got so bad, the Arizona Republic detailed two separate attempts by Trump to reach Republican supervisor Clinton Hickman in the weeks after the election, as the president's allies sought to alter the election results in a state he narrowly lost to Democrat Joe Biden at the time, Hickman was chairman of the board of supervisors, the elected body that oversees elections in the state's most populous county, Maricopa. Hickman received the first call from the white house switchboard on December 31st while he was out celebrating the coming new year with his wife and friends, he let the call go to voicemail.

Second call came on the night of January 3rd after the Washington post published a recording of Trump's hour long phone call with Georgia secretary of state Hickman sought to avoid talking to the president because of ongoing litigation, any let the call go to voicemail and yes, for the record, the Arizona Republic does in fact have those voicemails where you can hear what they were trying to do. Then of course, Rudy Giuliani steps in, he starts emailing or I'm sorry, texting and calling the chairwoman of the Arizona Republican party, trying to get her to somehow interfere, stop the counting of the votes. Honestly, it is pretty much identical to what these idiots were doing over in Georgia, trying to get them to stop the vote, trying to get them to go find the votes as Trump said, and let's not forget... Trump is already under criminal investigation in Georgia. I know we all get distracted with New York, but there have been two grand juries empaneled in the state of Georgia regarding Donald Trump's potential criminal election interference in that state. That's a big deal that everybody seems to have forgotten about.

And now the same thing might happen in Arizona. There's a catch here. Arizona's attorney general, a Man by the name of Brenna Vich Is running for US Senate as a Republican. So he's got a lot, uh, got a lot at stake here. He can't PISS off Republicans by investigating Donald Trump.

Brenna Vich did, in fact, support Arizona's sweeping new voter suppression laws.

Edit: btw, multiple Republicans including but not limited to McConnell have gone public with their plan of hoping they can cause maximum chaos and division for the next 18 months because it will help them successfully block any and all legislation, then they can blame the gridlock on Democrats during the election. Total nationwide chaos with the corresponding rise in crime and damage to the economy....that's the Republican plan for victory. True patriots. 🤦‍♂️

Better donate to the Trump Twitter lawsuit quick before they manage to destroy your investment portfolio with the planned chaos...Trump can't sue social media without your cash donations because he's really a billionaire so he needs your cash...pay no attention to his standard microscopic fine print explaining that he may, at his discretion, use your donation for personal debts. Doesn't matter, DONATE NOW. He needs your money....to fight the invisible fight against those paper tigers and windmills. Please don't remember when he did the exact same thing begging for money to fight for the "election fraud" fraud in court but then pocketed the money and fired his (now disgraced and disbarred) lawyers without filing a legitimate lawsuit.

bobknight33 (Member Profile)

JiggaJonson says...

What's up your ass? Nazi facebook got shunned and grandpa hitler wannabe got kicked off social media?

Hey, look,




I'm sorry you got duped.
But that doesn't give anyone the right to do what they did.
LETS BE CLEAR
People forced their way into the capitol building through violence. They hung up a noose https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/noose-hung-outside-capitol/ and when inside the building they were chanting 'FIGHT FOR TRUMP FIGHT FOR TRUMP FIGHT FOR TRUMP' until the president tweeted about Mike Pence's disloyalty, then they started with "WHERE IS PENCE, WHERE IS PENCE?

If you know anyone who was at the rally and stormed the capitol, please contact the FBI
https://www.fbi.gov/contact-us/field-offices/washingtondc/news/press-releases/fbi-seeking-information-related-to-violent-activity-at-the-us-capitol-bu
ilding
https://preview.tinyurl.com/yyq8xcba (link is too long)

They are wanted as person's of interest, suspected of terrorism.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/capitol-rioters-prison-trump-executive-order-federal (link is too long) copy+paste

$50k for anyone associated with the pipe bombs https://www.npr.org/sections/congress-electoral-college-tally-live-updates/2021/01/08/954845870/u-s-capitol-flag-will-fly-at-half-staff-fbi-issues-rew
ard-over-pipe-bombs


------------##########------------
------------##########------------
Look, I believe that you believe what you're saying, okay?

Let me make one last red rover talk with you, maybe you'll come on back to reality.
------------##########------------
------------##########------------


Here's the argument for Georgia, laid out in point by point sections


1.--------------------------------
Do you know any Trump supporters who don't trust the election?

From 2018 so before the current bullshit; though it's worth pointing out that Trump also claims that the 2016 election that he fucking won was a fraud.

"Results from a new Grinnell College National Poll give insights into which citizens lack confidence in the November 2018 election. As it turns out, white conservatives, despite accusations of election fraud from President Trump and several outspoken conservative leaders, are neither the only groups concerned about the accuracy of the 2018 vote count nor the groups most concerned. The poll’s results also uncover how a lack of confidence in the vote count is linked with voter turnout "
https://bit.ly/2VooAMS

I would argue that's contributed to a suppression of turnout. See also # 10 on my list here.


2.--------------------------------

https://apps.npr.org/elections20-interactive/#/house

The democrats lost a chunk of seats in the house of reps.
Flip flip flip flip flip flip
All that, all the Democrat plot to steal the election? That's some 7d chess right there. Secret dem plot = elect republicans. (it's the same ticket as the presidential vote) Can't trust people who voted Republican? Is that it? Throw those votes out?


3.-------------------------------
Arguing a that a technicality should disqualify votes doesn't mean that Americans' vote count is inaccurate. And if those votes' certification is invalid, why did Republican senators and Congress people from those states take their offices on Jan 2nd?

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>They are voted in on the same ballot that the vote for president is cast on. <<<<<<<<<<<<<<< <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
If they genuinely think and believe it was a scam, why did they show up to Washington and take office on the basis of so-called fraudulent ballots? If those ballots are frauds, what are those Republicans doing seated in those congressional seats?

Also, if that rule change is so bad, and absentee ballots are so fraudulent and can't be trusted, why did the Republican party in that state send a absentee ballot to every Republican who voted in the last election? You'd have to throw out ~700,000 republican votes as well. Don't their votes count?


4.-------------------------------

Mitt Romney is an absolute asshole and he supports policy i strongly disagree with, but at least he's honest and seems to speak with an appeal to integrity. I think I saw his outrage at his own party spilling out of his head during the objection hearing.

But he's been an R his whole life? Cant be trusted?

Mitch McConnel is like a RPG character that someone dumped all the skill points into "fuck these rules, I'm getting my way" He will do anything, cast off nearly any rule to advance republican politics. He is against this. No one, only one man can be trusted ???

Mike pence is the most republican motherfucker around, and he does not endorse this, which party are you with?



5.------------------------------

The senators objecting were right the cases didn't progress to a hearing, and were all "without standing" or were unable to even make a claim, with Rudy going into court and when the judge flatly asks him if he's suing for fraud,
'is this a fraud case ? '

>>>>>>>>>>>>>RUDY - "NO"
"No we do not"
( O_O) ?

The judge explains that maybe he did allege fraud at some point, but not in the paper work he filed currently in front of the judge. (EVEN JUDGE JUDY DON'T ALLOW THAT SHIT)

WOULD YOU LIKE THE AUDIO OF THAT?
https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4925496/user-clip-alleging-fraud

Finally, after some linguistic dancing, the judge revisits the topic, bookending that clip. ”Does the Amended complaint include fraud with particularity ?"

>>>>>>>>>>>>RUDY - "NO YOUR HONOR"



6.-------------------------------------------

So all of my
X Y Z cant be trusted?
Add McConnel and Pence



7.------------------------------------------

Maybe you are taking trump literally, not seriously? You're supposed to do "seriously, not literally" i've heard. Maybe he seriously won the election...
...but not literally, actually, or in-fact.



8.------------------------------------------

So only one man can be trusted? Only one man with the power? He used to hint at not conceding, now he's hinting at no more elections.

is that the way of a democracy or a republic? NO MORE ELECTIONS, THEY CANT BE TRUSTED UNLESS I WIN
???What good are elections? Why would we need those? They're all stolen anyway right ?



9.------------------------------------------

The states that made a difference and flipped from red to blue. Red, they were already red. Red as in Republicans won previous elections there and we're in charge of the local government and election boards in each case.
REPUBLICANS CERTIFIED EACH OF THOSE STATES.
HENCE THE FLIPPING,
THEY CERTIFIED IN DECEMBER,
BEFORE THEIR REPLACEMENTS ARRIVED.


10.-----------------------------------------

Democrats have been doing the work of flipping Georgia for 30 years, for democrats, that's how they flipped the state.

[The Daily] The Georgia Runoffs, Part 1: ‘We Are Black Diamonds.’ #theDaily
https://podcastaddict.com/episode/117319937 via @PodcastAddict

They interview Stacy Abraham's here^ and she speaks at length about the decades long process to flip Georgia, and all the fundraising they did during that time

There is also a sister episode where republican campaign officials are interviewed and they discuss how they are not prepared in Georgia because they thought that state was a lock, still they could have pulled it off, but voter turnout was being suppressed because people were being told it was a fraud. There is a telling moment where the two R senators up for election in Georgia are on stage but the crowd just keeps chanting TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP to the point that they are unable to speak to the crowd
[The Daily] The Georgia Runoffs, Part 2: ‘I Have Zero Confidence in My Vote’ #theDaily
https://podcastaddict.com/episode/117362059 via @PodcastAddict

>>>>>>>>>>>Notable,
the interviewer tries and tries but can't find a republican who will say they have confidence in their vote at the Georgia rally.


>>>>>>>>>Finally<<<<<<<<< >>>>>>>>>Finally<<<<<<<<< >>>>>>>>>Finally<<<<<<<<< >>>>>>>>>Finally<<<<<<<<< >>>>>>>>>Finally<<<<<<<<<
"To all of those who have asked, I will not be going to the Inauguration on January 20th."

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 8, 2021

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Come on.

Stop.

It's over.

You're defending people who planted pipe bombs in the capitol building of the United States of America.

It doesn't matter how you cut it, that!

THAT!

Is NOT right.








Edit: And we're actually a mixture of both a republic and a democracy. There are regular instances on the people voting on laws directly.

Whatever happens, I hope Republicans keep doing what they're doing, because they are losing every election since trump and then some ...shithead.

bobknight33 said:

Hey shit head

We live in a REPUBLIC not a DEMOCRACY

Voter cheated very little
Election fraud was great and led to febel man put in White house.

Poll workers were not allowed to do their job.

bobknight33 (Member Profile)

newtboy says...

Hey Mr cranial rectosis,
We live in a democratic republic....where do you live that's a republic? The republic of Congo?

Election fraud was miniscule, far less than in the election in 2016 that put a feeble old delusional narcissist in office.

Zero evidence of any systemic fraud was found, zero presented in court. Also no evidence of interference with poll workers. Only wild accusations no one would make under oath by people who have no idea how elections work. All that was found was a few Trumpsters voting twice or more. Nothing else at all. Nada. Zip. Zilch. None.

Trump is a treasonous traitor. String him up...String him up....String him up.

bobknight33 said:

Hey shit head

We live in a REPUBLIC not a DEMOCRACY

Voter cheated very little
Election fraud was great and led to febel man put in White house.

Poll workers were not allowed to do their job.

bobknight33 (Member Profile)

bobknight33 says...

Hey shit head

We live in a REPUBLIC not a DEMOCRACY

Voter cheated very little
Election fraud was great and led to febel man put in White house.

Poll workers were not allowed to do their job.

JiggaJonson said:

Hey, shithead.

Let me make something clear.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------
MY LOYALTY IS TO DEMOCRACY - TO THE REPUBLIC
-----------------------------------------------------------------------


Storming the capital building, shooting people, and planting bombs, is not democracy.


---------------


Let me know how you feel, because right now my sense of it is

-the voters can't be trusted
-the poll workers can't be trusted
-the voting machines can't be trusted
-the media can't be trusted
-Bill Barr can't be trusted
-the guy who was in charge of election security can't be trusted
-the lower courts can't be trusted
-the appellate courts can't be trusted
-and the Supreme Court can't be trusted

-Only donald trump can be trusted.


----> Is that accurate?????????????????????????


Because,
THAT does not sound like a Democracy.
THAT does not sound like a Republic.

bobknight33 (Member Profile)

JiggaJonson says...

Hey, shithead.

Let me make something clear.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------
MY LOYALTY IS TO DEMOCRACY - TO THE REPUBLIC
-----------------------------------------------------------------------


Storming the capital building, shooting people, and planting bombs, is not democracy.


---------------


Let me know how you feel, because right now my sense of it is

-the voters can't be trusted
-the poll workers can't be trusted
-the voting machines can't be trusted
-the media can't be trusted
-Bill Barr can't be trusted
-the guy who was in charge of election security can't be trusted
-the lower courts can't be trusted
-the appellate courts can't be trusted
-and the Supreme Court can't be trusted

-Only donald trump can be trusted.


----> Is that accurate?????????????????????????


Because,
THAT does not sound like a Democracy.
THAT does not sound like a Republic.

newtboy said:

Republicans rioting in the streets now

Biden waves to missing crowd.

newtboy says...

Intentional infections and deaths vs adult responsibility.

Trump cultists happily put their lives at risk because Trump told them to.
Biden asked people to stay home and safe.

Hate to tell you, not Trump is ALL he has to be unless one of Trump's plots to subvert democracy is successful, his latest being calling on republican governors to claim they don't think the vote total matches their state, so they should toss the vote and just send all pro Trump electors, making us a dictatorship, not even a democratic republic.

bobknight33 said:

Donald Trump Rallies Vs Joe Biden Rallies.




Trump shows up and there are 5,000 to 15,000 to great him.

How on earth do Democrats believe Biden will win?

newtboy (Member Profile)

StukaFox says...

Newt,

This is in response to your comment on my statement about Biden needing to lose in '20.

I recently wrote this as a reply to one of my readers (I write under a number of different names in other places).:

Dear <name>,

>I took some time to absorb what you wrote. It's a lot to juggle. The Atlantic has an article in the July-August issue on the worst and best case scenario in CLO defaults. I'll read more.

I read the article you mentioned, and while it's certainly good, it also misses a very important point that explains the mess we're in: the collapse of Lehman and Bear-Stearns, while catastrophic in their own ways, were not the nightmare that caused the Fed to freak out in 2008 -- AIG was. Had AIG gone under and the counterparty default contracts triggered, we'd be on the barter system right now. We came within hours of not having an economy in the western world. The $700b ($.7t) the Fed coughed up to stop this from happening calmed the panic, but did nothing to resolve the underlying issues. These issues continued to compound during the 2011-2020 stock run-up and now we're at the point where the Fed is throwing trillions of dollars at every piece of bad debt they can find just to keep the whole thing from imploding into an economic black hole. It is important to note that in September '19, the credit markets started freezing because of the debt that was already on the books then, -before- CV-19 started rolling, and it took $3t just to get them unlocked again. Absolutely nothing has gotten better since then, and I would argue things have gotten dangerously worse.

In an odd coincidence, the NYT ran an article today about the looming bankruptcy crisis. They're calling for 30-60 days before things start imploding, but I'll stick to my estimate of ~90 days. There's some talk about extending the $600 benefits (we'll see) and chatter about another stimulus check, but that's kicking the can as well as telegraphing how bad things really are. When the Republicans are getting behind free money, you know we're in some uncharted territory. For all intents and purposes, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) -- the reason the Fed is backstopping debt and printing money like crazy -- is the hill the US economy will live or die on. Should the US dollar come unpegged as the world's de facto currency or should inflation begin (and there's already worrying signs this is happening), that's game over.

Please don't take anything I say as the Word of God; please do your own research and come to your own conclusions. Everything I've said is an opinion based on my education, experience and way of thinking. Your mileage may vary.

Here is the article I mentioned: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/18/business/corporate-bankruptcy-coronavirus.html -- might be paywalled, but clear your cookies for the NYT and you should be able to read it.


>Frankly, it's the physical danger in my area of the States that concerns me. There are the guns and bullying. During some BLM demonstrations in the Midwest, locals were standing around with semi-automatics. I drive a Prius for the fuel efficiency. Pick up trucks enjoy tailgating, trying to intimidate me. This behavior isn't going to change with a change of President but will get worse is we don't change. This ideological push to takeover the country instead of ruling by compromise started around the same time we came to the US in 1981, Reagan's first year. I was so shocked when I heard talk radio for the first time; this wasn't the country I had left in the 1970s.


And now we come to the giant pile of sweaty dynamite that's just waiting for the right shock to set it off. I could give you a prolonged lecture about how this all started in 1978 with California's Proposition 13, or how David Stockman's tragically prescient warnings were blatantly ignored, but Haynes Johnson does a far better job at this than I ever could in his 1991 book "Sleepwalking Through History", as does Kevin Phillips in 2006's "American Theocracy". Honestly, at this point, the prelude is academic. The reality of the situation is that a large swath of adult Americans are appalling ill-educated, innumerate and devoid of even the most basic critical-thinking skills. These people are now locked out of the Information Economy. They lack the most basic skills required to compete in the 21st century job market and thus will watch their standard of living sink into the abyss. These people are not blind to this fact because they're living with the reality of their situation every single day. They're totally without hope, cut off from all avenues of control over their own lives and they feel utterly abandoned by the very people who're supposed to be helping them. The reason you're seeing bullying and behavior like that is because these same people are totally removed from any avenues of recourse and the only people they can take their anger out on are people like you and me. Their anger is being stoked on a daily basis. FOX News and the GOP are experts at this and have a host of boogeymen to keep the anger from being pointed their way: ANTIFA, BLM (black Americans have always made a perfect target), "coastal elites" and, of course, Liberals.

Trump's election was a warning, not an outlier. Trump was the primal scream of these people and Liberals and the Democrats as a whole chose not to listen because they found the sound so abhorrent. The rage will only get worse and the number of people enveloped by this rage will only grow as economic conditions worsen. At this point, it no longer matters who wins in '20. Winning the election will be like winning the deed to the World Trade Center one second after the first jet hit. The damage has already been done and no steps are being taken to repair it; if anything, people are actively making it worse either through ideological blindness, deliberate malfeasance or outright stupidity. It took almost 50 years to get to this point and the endemic issues will not be undone in a single generation, much less a single election. Until the people who voted for Trump feel a sense of real hope, a sense of control over their lives and a genuine expectation of recourse for their grievances, they will keep right on voting for Trump, or people like him.

My unfortunate suspicion is that this country will rip itself to shreds long before those reforms are enacted.

Side note: the fundamental difference between the United States and Europe is that European history has forced the nations of Europe to live with the consequences of their actions. Not so the United States. Europe has suffered for her sins. Not so the United States. The two bloodiest wars in human history were fought on European soil. Not so the United States. The United States has never faced true suffering, nor has it ever had to live with the ramifications of its own actions. Both these facts are about to change and a nation whose character is built on a mythology of individual action and violence is going to have to face reality. The people of this nation are not prepared for this and they will not like it.

Second side note: many people are erroneously comparing the current situation to the Wiemar Republic. This is a lack of historical understanding. A more apt comparison would be to Spain in late 1935.


>As for re-opening, we could have gotten some control if the "leader" had simply donned a mask and used realistic thinking. People could go back to work more safely, wash hands, stay a certain distance. But his hubris led the way, so now we'll have a roller coaster for months and years that will affect the economy even more. France is a good comparison because they were unprepared also, having slashed the public healthcare budget for the last twenty years. But when they laid down the rules, troops patrolled the streets to be sure they were followed. So far, they've flattened the curve (for now), and used different economic incentives, such as paying part of employees' salaries to keep them employed.

At this point, the pace of re-opening is a difference between very bad and much worse. Had $3t been used to pay the yearly salary of every American, we could have saved lives and the economy, but we didn't. The history of 2020 will be littered with "what-ifs". However, the first thing you learn when studying history is that what-ifs are useless because things are what they are and you can't change that. It's already obvious we're going into a second wave. If previous pandemics are any indication of what's to come, this second wave will be many times worse than the first. The wait for a vaccine is indeterminate, but if we're going for herd immunity, ~70% of Americans will need to catch the virus. To date, ~1.5% have. If the US population is ~330 million, ~230 million will need to catch the virus. Call the mortality rate 2%, that means ~4.6 million Americans will die. That's a lot of dead Americans and grieving families.

Take care,

(my actual name)

60 Minutes Accepts Trump Team's Challenge

newtboy says...

I'll just leave this light reading here....

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza emerged in Mexico in March 2009 and by June 10 had rapidly spread to 74 countries (1,2). Nonpharmaceutical interventions for pandemic influenza at the community level were recommended by the World Health Organization before and during the pandemic (3,4). One such nonpharmaceutical intervention was quarantine of contacts of persons with confirmed cases. A key question in closed settings (e.g., military barracks) was how to prevent a secondary outbreak of influenza among those quarantined.

The first identified case of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in mainland People’s Republic of China was imported from the United States and reported on May 11, 2009 (5). On May 29, the Chinese Ministry of Health required that each confirmed case-patient and each contact be isolated and quarantined in 1 separate room to contain transmission of the virus

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/16/8/09-1787_article

https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/guidance/exclusion.htm

There weren't shutdowns because H1N1 wasn't spread before symptoms show, wasn't as easily spread, and wasn't 1/10 as deadly. By denying travel to and quarantining the visibly sick, it was relatively easy to stop the spread. There were many travel restrictions including travel bans, but they were mostly voluntarily. There was screening of passengers and sick ones were denied travel. Also, thanks to preparations, a vaccine only took months to create.
Yes, we got lucky, but we certainly didn't JUST get lucky, we took action AND got lucky.

greatgooglymoogly said:

So H1N1 could have "been the big one" yet there were no shutdowns or travel restrictions. They just got lucky that time. Supply stockpiles can only do so much, which is admittedly more than Trump did.

Maybe we can learn lessons from China. They managed to avoid large outbreaks in Beijing and Shanghai, seems like the virus went directly from Wuhan to the rest of the world.



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