Bob,

You might like this guy. He talks about the underlying US and global economy in a non-political way and unlike a lot of other YouTube financial channels, he's not hawking a product or pushing precious metals:

https://www.youtube.com/user/TheMoneyGPS/videos

I like him because he shows a lot of data not being covered by MSM, including CNBC/Marketwatch.

Happy Thanksgiving, Man!

^
Upvoted the wrong comment. Sorry. I meant to upvote Asmos' comment. Will downvote this comment in 10 years when I hit whatever precious metal status that lets me.

Um. The only precious metal I know was a P51-B. I was there when the plane (and the pilot) died in Oshkosh, WI.

@BicycleRepairMan

Also vice versa. Which might sound circular, but isnt. Uniformitarianism is of course the simplest assumtion (occams razor) but it also correlates well with the available evidence. If natural laws acted differently in the past, we would presumably find EVIDENCE that it did. And correlating data is not a "hall of mirrors, it is evidence of correlation. This is basic statistics and empiri.

Thank you for your considered reply. Well see, here's the thing. Creationists and evolutionists are not looking at two sets of evidences. We are looking at the same evidence and interpreting it differently. There isn't creationist evidence and evolutionist evidence, there is just evidence which we both interpret according to the assumptions we bring to it. We are both looking at the same geologic record and saying it happened much differently. The evidence yields different conclusions depending on what assumptions you bring to it.

Uniformitarian is only the first assumption scientists bring to the evidence. The secondary assumption is that the different layers represent vast amounts of time. They come to this conclusion because they observe the rates of these processes are very slow today, and since in uniformitarian, the present is the key to the past, they assume that present day geological features must have taken millions or billions of years to form because of present day rates. Because of this, the completely exclude the hypothesis that the features we see could form very quickly. Therefore, they are biased in their interpretation and will miss the evidence which actually points to rapid formation. I'll give you a good example:

"Previously geologists had thought that constant, rapid water flow prevented mud's constituents -- silts and clays -- from coalescing and gathering at the bottoms of rivers, lakes and oceans. This has led to a bias, Schieber explains, that wherever mudstones are encountered in the sedimentary rock record, they are generally interpreted as quiet water deposits."

http://newsinfo.iu.edu/web/page/normal/7022.html

For a long time geologists believed that mudstones could only form a certain way, which is by slow moving water. They had completely ruled out that it could be formed rapidly. Therefore, whenever they saw mudstones the "story" the rocks told them was that of a slow process taking vast amounts of time. Yet, mudstones, they have found, can be deposited very rapidly. This is actually evidence for a global flood because mudstones make up 2/3s of the record for sedimentary rock. Yet they never saw that because of their assumptions of everything taking vast amounts of time to form. This is a classic example of how the assumptions you bring changes the interpretation of the data. Same mudstones, but the different assumptions yielded a different conclusion from the same evidence.

This is further complicated by the matter of evolution. Biostratigraphy has played a decisive role in determining the relative ages of rock layers around the world, which brings with it a whole other host of assumptions. Because evolution requires vast amounts of time, and they interpret a certain evolutionary progression through the fossil record, therefore they again make the assumption different layers must represent vast amounts of time, based on their evolutionary assumptions. They then use that assumption to validate their uniformitarian assumptions and call this evidence.

The main issue is the assumption of uniformitarian to explain the fossil record. It denies that a catastrophe like a global flood could have caused the features we see today. The geologists believe things happened very slowly, whereas creation geologists believe they have formed very quickly. There is a whole lot of evidence which shows that layers could be laid down rapidly, and canyons and other features could have been cut very quickly. Geologists do acknowledge this, which is why there is another branch of geology called Catastrophism:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catastrophism

They can not deny that many of the things they thought took millions of years "stalactites forming, fossilization, formation of oil and precious metals) can actually happen very quickly. They still deny, however, that a global catastrophe could have been responsible for all of it, despite the fact that the whole Earth is covered by sedimentary rock which is primarily laid down by water.

And this is where we are with fossils and dating. We dont just make wild guesses on the basis of 2 or 3 fossils and one shitty chemistry experiment involving half-lives; We have literally thousands of datapoints. If this is a hall of mirrors, then Satan is truly one crafty bastard making a pretty impressive one for us.

Again, it is the assumptions you bring to that data which colors the interpretation. I can also tell you that the assumption that decay rates never change is wrong:

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/286/5441/882.summary

Pressure and chemistry can alter decay rates according to that experiment. In that instance, they were able to alter the decay rate by 1.5 percent. In much more extreme conditions, however, the decay rate could change significantly. It shows that the uniformitarian assumptions of radiometric dating can and will produce unreliable data.

These are things that they don't teach you in science class. When it comes down to it, there is no actual proof for deep time in the fossil record, when we're talking about actual empirical evidence. We only have circumstantial evidence based on assumptions which I have shown to be faulty. That is where the hall of mirrors comes in, where everything you see is reflecting the assumptions you make. It is what is called a worldview, which is like a set of glasses you use to see the world. Everyone has a worldview. The apriori assumptions you make about reality constitutes your worldview. That is what is going on here..their worldview of the world forming from purely naturalistic processes, and that slowly over vast amounts of time, is a bias which skews all of their data to that direction, when as I showed previously with the mudstones that it could just as easily point in the other direction.

A common sense video that says that real life is better than online. Meh.

Check the link for the really silly stuff. The video on the link claims that the economy will collapse and the dollar will be worth nothing. Maybe so. The real value, then, will be the commodities of fuel, food, and precious metals (according to videos). Sounds like Glen Beck's push to buy gold for survivalist value.

I heard the the U of Texas recently bought a ton of gold to prepare for any financial collapse. This gold needs to be guarded, vaulted, transferred with special measures as it is heavy as hell. All that excess expense would offset any interest it may generate.

If it all goes post-apocalypse, what value would precious metals have? They have some unique physical properties that would give them manufacturing value, but with no factories, who would want to trade for them? Post-apocalypse value of gold and silver implies that factories would still be intact, but mining would not be.

I for one would think fuel and food would be infinitely more valuable than shiny metals.

>> ^Peroxide:

Cell phones are immoral, from the slave labor mining of precious metals to the sweat shop assembly, to the toxic waste shipped back to china.
Your sentiments are cliche and your herd mentality a detriment to the global herd.

Cell phones are not immoral. Slave labor mining, sweat shop assembly and toxic waste pollution are definitely immoral, but don't confuse the ends with the means. Our desire for cell phones may not justify the immoral actions used to produce them, but that doesn't mean the cell phones themselves or our desire to use them, is wrong.

As for the poem, technology is amoral. It is a tool, which can be used to enslave or enhance your life. Would he have said the same thing about the printing press?

I have acquired knowledge, discovered art and laughed at the world (and yes those things have equal value) on this site alone, and that means the internet makes my life better. I have had visceral, collaborative, experiences in online games I could never have in real life (at least, until the zombie apocalypse hits).

But it's a part of my life, not the whole. Guitar hero doesn't compare to actually playing guitar. SSX has none of "oh crap, I've overcooked this and now I'm really gonna hurt" adrenaline rush of actually snowboarding. As much as I love taking down a room of thugs in Arkham Aslyum, it's a pale shadow of the intricacy of martial arts.

So yeah, take what you want from the web, but go have a beer with some friends every now and then

Cell phones are immoral, from the slave labor mining of precious metals to the sweat shop assembly, to the toxic waste shipped back to china.

Your sentiments are cliche and your herd mentality a detriment to the global herd.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foxconn_suicides

http://www.ted.com/talks/edward_burtynsky_on_manufactured_landscapes.html

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/foxconn-workers-threaten-mass-suicide-if-working-conditions-arent-fixed

http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2010/05/26-4

>> ^NetRunner:
Well, prices are set by market forces. You know, supply and demand. It's not necessarily the case that the Fed expanding the monetary base will lead to inflation.

Again, look at the last few years. Bernanke expanded the monetary base radically, but inflation has stayed low, and is on a declining trend.

And price changes from an increased "supply" of currency is called inflation.

Bernanke expanded the monetary base of the US dollar (ie world reserve currency) and people all over the world are in the streets rioting over the increased cost of living. PPI in the US has gone up 7.2% the last 12 months. And if you're referring to QE, most of that money is either parked at a bank or was used to buy toxic debt (to counter deflation). But when those TRILLIONS do reach the marketplace, inflation will be realized. That's why precious metal prices have blown up. The US dollar has lost 98% of it's purchasing power against gold the last 40 years.
>> ^NetRunner:
Oy. Okay, so here's how a bank works. People like you and me have some money. The bank offers to "hold" that money for us in an account, and at least used to pay us some small amount of interest on that money as incentive for us to keep our money with them.

But the bank doesn't just take our money and stick it in some vault for safekeeping, they lend that money out to other people, at a higher rate of interest than they offered us.

Problem is, we're allowed to withdraw our money from the bank whenever we want, so the bank has to keep some cash on hand (aka in reserve). However it will only keep a fraction of the total deposits in reserve, because otherwise it wouldn't be able to loan out money. That's what fractional reserve banking means.

That's what one would presume fractional reserve banking means, but it's not.




>> ^NetRunner:
I agree. Provided by "our system" you mean laissez-faire capitalism.

The banks take our savings and gamble them on risky, potentially profitable investments. That's sorta key to the functioning of capitalism though. Without that, the whole system crashes almost instantly.
LOL. The state stepping in to reward and cover up fraud is not laissez-faire capitalism. I don't get it. You defend the system, then you try to shift blame on free market capitalism?

>> ^NetRunner:
Artificially. You keep using that word. I don't think it means what you think it means.

Prices are set by market forces, and according to free market advocates this is perfect/moral/only way they can or could ever be set, or else we'll go to hell be socialists.

There are plenty of unnatural "market forces" in our current system. Even inflation itself. Hence, prices are artificially set.


>> ^NetRunner:
Different economic models hypothesize different answers. I tend to think the Keynesian story is right -- it's aggregate supply and aggregate demand. When you have a shift in either one that would lead to a higher equilibrium price, then you see "aggregate price" (aka the CPI) rise.
Which is to say, you can get both inflation and deflation without the Fed doing anything. To stabilize inflation, you actually need the Fed constantly adjusting the monetary base so neither inflation or deflation get out of kilter. Look at pre-1913 interest rates if you don't believe me.

John Maynard Keynes on inflation: "By this means government may secretly and unobserved, confiscate the wealth of the people, and not one man in a million will detect the theft."

What you're talking about makes no sense. Prices in a market with sound money still go up and down. That's the way a market works. Calling it inflation and deflation doesn't make it so.

>> ^NetRunner:
I agree, if by "the ones that...extract value from that actually worked and earned their wealth" you mean any and all business owners, investors, and so on who have done nothing but collect interest on wealth they already own.

Maybe before you start going after people who are collecting interest on the wealth they presumably earned honestly, you will stop defending those who collect interest on money they created from nothing. Deal?

> black impurities

Slag... flux.... lead... there are many secondary materials used when smelting precious metals. Lead is used to scavenge the precious metal from ore. Flour can be used as a source of carbon to assist in fusion of the metal. The black impurities are... not silver.

This goes into exhaustive detail including the choice of boneash for a cup:
http://www.rocks4brains.com/SmeltingAg.pdf

>> ^blankfist:

>> ^NetRunner:
>> ^blankfist:
And their stock suggestions have worked out well for me. But that's mainly because I think it's a good idea to bet against the US dollar, especially now, and their stock suggestions are basically mostly that.

So be specific, how are they saying to bet against the dollar? Buy gold and silver? Buy foreign currency or foreign stocks & bonds?
Which of those have paid off big (you mentioned tripling your 401k)?

I didn't say they said "bet against the dollar". I said that. They don't sell gold or silver, either. They review companies that do though. And as far as I can tell they're not selling anything.
They have a number of stocks they think will do well as the currency inflates, and so far they've been spot on. Mainly mining companies and the occasional agriculture company. Read on.
http://inflation.us/stocks.html


Intro paragraph at that link:

One of our missions at the National Inflation Association is to discover and profile companies that we believe will prosper in an inflationary environment. Typically we will bring to you producing, profitable, Gold and Silver companies with strong balance sheets. We believe these stocks have a chance of becoming some of the best performers of the next decade.

That said, those look like decent enough picks, even if the much ballyhooed hyperinflation never actually arrives. They've got oil, gas, food, tech stocks, even some potash (very trendy) in there, which are mostly bets that global warming is real, the oil is running out, and the developing economies will rapidly increase their demand for food & oil over the next decade. All safe bets!

Though the bulk of it is stock in precious metal traders and miners, and I'm not sure that quite counts as "betting against the dollar" so much as betting that the hysteria about inflation will lead to a boom for gold traders. At least inflation.us knows which side their bread is buttered on.

Assuming these companies themselves aren't scams, they're not setting you up to lose your shirt if Paul Krugman continues to be right, and Peter Schiff continues to be wrong. You might take a hit if/when a Republican reclaims the White House, and all the talk of inflation disappears though.

>> ^Mazex:

>> ^ForgedReality:
The ad at the end to sell memberships and silver kind of makes me wanna take the whole thing with a grain of salt...

So true.. MUST GO BUY SOME GOLD AND SILVER so I can join the higher people and gain entry into the promised land after the world economy collapses.
There are some reasonable opinions in this video, but like most one-sided documentaries about important issues, they throw in a load of bullshit too.


If all these companies selling gold and silver honestly believed the dollar was going to be worthless soon, why would they be exchanging precious metals for it? Wouldn't they want to keep as much of it as possible for themselves rather than trade it for worthless money?

Making money off of suckers will never go out of style.

Lyrics:


Yeah, uh huh, you know what it is
Black and yellow [x4]
Yeah, uh huh, you know what it is
Black and yellow [x4]

[Chorus:]
Yeah, uh huh, you know what it is
Everything we do, we do it big
Beat up on Paul Krugman, that's nothin




Transcend Mises at twenty, that's stunin
Repping my school when you see me you know everything
Black and yellow [x4]
I put it down for my man Murray, I'm in
Black and yellow [x4]

[Verse 1:]
Black flag, yellow star, them commies scared of it, got my war paint
Soon as I hit the forum, crack keynes, instant faint
Hit the podium once make them liberals shake
State inflates, now the prices soaring
A failed policy, you know the people payed for it
And you know we dig them precious metals
We callin on your horseshit game we balling out on every level
Hear them statists talk but there's nothing you can tell 'em
Fed prints a trillion, got another trillion on their schedule
No love for central planners breaking hearts
No state, free market art

[Chorus:]
Yeah, uh huh, you know what it is
Everything we do, we do it big
Beat up on Paul Krugman, that's nothin




Transcend Mises at twenty, that's stunin
Repping my school when you see me you know everything
Black and yellow [x4]
I put it down for my man Murray , I'm in
Black and yellow [x4]

[Verse 2:]
Got a call from Tom Woods, this just in
Bitches love me for my non-aggressive means and ends
Neo-Lockean? Maybe. The market's free, yo.
This ain't the new deal, it's the real deal no joe blow
I'm sipping Four Loko and puffin on the ganja
You social engineers will never stop the marijuana
Statists act like bitches, Tyler Perry
I ball out while Ron Paul does some commentary

[Chorus:]
Yeah, uh huh, you know what it is
Everything we do, we do it big
Beat up on Paul Krugman, that's nothin




Transcend Mises at twenty, that's stunin
Repping my school when you see me you know everything
Black and yellow [x4]
I put it down for my man Murray , I'm in
Black and yellow [x4]


[Verse 3:]
Stay praxeological like I'm supposed to do
Broken window fallacy, them Keynesians cant get over you
And our crew look unapproachable
We're with Rothbard, Bitch, we go hard

They wanna fuck with the market, monopolize, constrict, get high, talk shit and that's that Real crap, depression but, they said we wouldn't feel that, they took the blue pill, or must just be on crack

[Chorus:]
Yeah, uh huh, you know what it is
Yeah, uh huh, you know what it is
(emotional appeals ain't shit, it all comes back to economics, bitch)
Repping my school when you see me you know everything
Black and yellow [x4]
I put it down for my man Murray, I'm in
Black and yellow [x4]
Yeah, uh huh, you know what it is
Everything we do, we do it big
Beat up on Paul Krugman, that's nothin




Transcend Mises at twenty, that's stunin
Repping my school when you see me you know everything
Black and yellow [x4]
I put it down for my man Murray, I'm in
Black and yellow [x4]

Dr. Doom, Peter Schiff, has been critical of Goldline.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1zzcuk7JQM

He happens to have a site for his business Euro Pacific Precious Metals:

http://www.europacmetals.com/

>> ^Xaielao:

There are certain diamond outlets that guarantee that their precious metals and gems do not come from conflict. I'm not sure which ones but I do know they are out there. A few google searches could probably tell ya.
On the topic this happens every day around the world. The rich and powerful bleeding third world countries dry for their resources. For example, you think Afghanistan is a terrible war now? They just discovered some of the largest deposits of gold and other precious metals like lithium there, at least a trillion dollars worth. So Afghanistan's war today will be the oppression and slaughter of millions over the next many years as rich mega-corps that care nothing for the people vie for the riches. And because Afghanistan is a broken, unorganized third world country, they won't become richer, they will become even more squalid as a nation.


Isn't that a rather oversimplified explanation though? Doesn't consumer demand drive the price of commodities and metals higher? And doesn't the increase in money for poor, relatively backwards countries encourage warlords? How could you guarantee something like that? Metal and diamonds are fungible, so it seems like any guarantee would be paper thin. Aren't the warlords ultimately failures of the governments of those countries more than corporations and demand for goods? Isn't the demand of goods from a poor country one of the only ways to break out of extreme poverty? If we aren't going to buy their goods, what hope do they ever have or raising the funds to combat local warlords?

I think the problem exists because the world is far less simple than you suppose. There is an interesting capitalist third world economist that talks about one of the real problems of poor countries is their lack of governments defining what private property means. This results in might makes right type of situations. Many third world countries need revolutions in ideas before they will ever achieve modern economic prosperity.

There are certain diamond outlets that guarantee that their precious metals and gems do not come from conflict. I'm not sure which ones but I do know they are out there. A few google searches could probably tell ya.

On the topic this happens every day around the world. The rich and powerful bleeding third world countries dry for their resources. For example, you think Afghanistan is a terrible war now? They just discovered some of the largest deposits of gold and other precious metals like lithium there, at least a trillion dollars worth. So Afghanistan's war today will be the oppression and slaughter of millions over the next many years as rich mega-corps that care nothing for the people vie for the riches. And because Afghanistan is a broken, unorganized third world country, they won't become richer, they will become even more squalid as a nation.