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zephyre says...

Weather derivatives do have a purpose. And as far as I know they're still being traded.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_derivatives
"

The CME currently trades weather derivative contracts for 18 cities in the United States, nine in Europe, six in Canada and two in Japan. Most of these contracts track cooling degree days or heating degree days, but recent additions track frost days in the Netherlands and monthly/seasonal snowfall in Boston and New York."

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The Monty Hall Problem

zephyre says...

@rembar - I know it was him. He's also the guy that suggested the world was round, wtf is he thinking?!?!

Anyway, the simplest way to break this down is you have a 2/3 chance of choosing a goat on your first pick, a 1/3 chance of picking the car, therefore, after one of the goats is revealed to you, you more than likely chose the other goat, and should therefore switch. These are not independent probabilities.

This problem was my introduction to stochastic processes. Blew my mind.

The Monty Hall Problem

zephyre says...

I hate to argue this fine point, but as a probability major, this is a probability problem, not statistics. Hate to argue language

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