The end (of the Democratic primary) is Nigh

Or is it?

This weekend, we will have the Primary in Puerto Rico, the Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting on Michigan and Florida, then on Tuesday, the final primary in Montana and the final caucus in South Dakota.

Then...nothing. The next real event is the convention at the end of August (25th-28th).

It seems unlikely that Hillary will come out on top. My concern is that there will be enough ambiguity that she's going to fight to the convention after all.

I think the two main sources of unknown are:

1. How decisive will Obama's win be?
2. Will Hillary drop out if Obama hits the magic number of delegates, or will she cling to the "supers can change their mind" and fight it out?

So I ask the other politicos out there, is the end in sight, or is this going to the convention after all?
Fjnbk says...

If it does, then the Democratic leadership is truly spineless. Hillary will probably not drop out officially, but I doubt she will continue to campaign with vigor.

I am so glad this is going to end, then the Clinton cultists can finally wake up and see what they're turning into. Visit Talk Left. Would you ever think that Democrats would be questioning their likely candidate's citizenship?

Or saying that they'd like to kiss Bill O'Reilly for standing up against Obama? I'm hoping there's no mass suicide after the convention in Denver.

NetRunner says...

I'm thinking she's gonna get told, in pretty uncertain terms that it's over.

Pelosi and Reid seem poised to declare support for Obama on June 4th, and there's a lot of rumors circulating that most of the uncommitted superdels are for Obama, and just waiting for the contests to be over.

Also, a lot of Hillary's staff have been caught on camera admitting Obama's won, and all of them have firmly declared that "we will have a nominee in June", except Carville who hints at both an end, and a convention fight (but he's nuts in his own right).

There's also been some news about the Clinton top advisers taking book deals, which would hamper their ability to do things like run a general election campaign.

I think it's gonna be over in June, maybe even as early as next week.

Question is whether Hillary will exit gracefully, or will need to be dragged away by security.

I'm still holding out hope that she'll step aside gracefully. But I am still worried, because her past behavior has been so consistent about denying reality, I don't see why she'd start accepting reality now.

Crosswords says...

Ugh, it sounds like they're actually going to count Florida and maybe even Michigan. Its like they took a crap on the table and tried to fix it by smearing it around so there's not so much of it in on spot.

NetRunner says...

Michigan is again, full panel seated, all delegates get a half vote. In addition, pledged delegates will not be allocated in elected proportions, but instead 69 Clinton, 59 Obama.

In other words, the state parties both got their proposals approved by the RBC.

The new magic number is, according to demconwatch 2117, which leaves Obama needing 64, Clinton needing 240.5, with a total of 291 delegates (86 pledged, 205 super) remaining.

According to Chuck Todd @ MSNBC, this means barring massively unexpected results in the remaining primaries, Obama needs 20 more supers to clinch the nomination.

Harold Ickes says he "reserves the right" to take this to the credentials committee -- fight it out to the convention.

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