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MSL Curiosity Mars Rover Landing @ 32fps

Beverly Hills Cop - Cigarette Truck

ant says...

I still haven't seen this movie. I love its rad Axel F theme and Glenn Fry's Heat is On songs though!

Trump Walks Away After Being Challenged on Virus Testing

luxintenebris says...

bobby. baby! what heat does this half-wit face that other competent presidents haven't? if walking away is the answer, let him keep walking! avoid it altogether. let him go back to courtrooms where his falsity is counted against him.

walk away?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6OquAcN6vI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnpmdVVK2-4

second-guessing?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5Sre4tk5l0

(what makes one think we don't watch the full clip? if anything, just to watch him tail-tuck and sulk away?)

bobknight33 said:

Why does Trump even bother with media. Incessant bashing , second guessing of every move, decision over last 3 years. Watch the full clip. Trump is right to walk away.

STUNG by a GIANT HORNET!

newtboy says...

Great news...the Japanese Giant Hornet has recently established itself in Washington state.

Giant hornets are bee predators. They can decimate a hive in hours. Japanese honey bees have a defense against them...they can vibrate their bodies generating enough heat to kill the hornets but not enough to kill themselves. Italian and other European bee species don't have that defense. If giant hornets spread, they could be a death nail in the already struggling American bee/honey industries.
Also worth noting, they kill up to 50 people a year in Japan, but far more in China. They could be worse than killer bees in multiple ways. For instance, they can sting through a bee suit, each one can sting multiple times, and they can thrive in cold that killer bees can't survive.

*quality masochism

Okeechobee Commissioner Bryant Culpepper - Kill Corona With

newtboy says...

No....you need an industrial heat gun. That'll take them hoaxy viruses right outta there, just inhale deeply.

Oh sweet zombie Jebus...OAN a pretty reliable source?!? They're more bat shit crazy, loonier conspiracy nuts than Beck or Jones....random internet suggestions are more likely to be correct than OAN.
OAN might be a ploy to make Fox look legitimate by comparison.

The World's Biggest Gear Reduction

Payback says...

From what I understand, no one will be. Counting from the big bang, the estimated heat death of the universe happens at googol years anyway, so we're a trillion or so years too late to start now.

BSR said:

Guess I won't be around for the celebration.

Bush fire goes from 1 to a 100 in a couple seconds

newtboy says...

Those look like eucalyptus not pine trees....but the same process applies.
The heat will not only desiccate leaves/needles, but it will also vaporize the oils in the leaves (needles in pine trees) making even the air in the canopy flammable. Eucalyptus trees are loaded with oils, maybe even more than pine trees. This is also called crowning, a crown fire, or a canopy fire. Once a fire crowns, it's nearly impossible to fight from the ground....or at all if the tree tops are close together.

Scary stuff. Where I live, in the Northern California redwood forests, that canopy can be hundreds of feet high and continuous in places.

Sagemind said:

That's called "Candling"
As someone who has been evacuated many times and had my town threatened by forest fires many times, I've seen this first hand so many times. It's scary, but can be predicable. Pine needles are very flammable, and at the correct temperature, they dry instantly and burst into flame like a fuse. If other trees are close, they just keep lighting the next one, like match heads in a book of matches.

If you've ever used pine needles as kindling to start a fire, you'll understand this.

3 Perplexing Physics Problems

newtboy says...

Got me on the ice one. I knew salt water would be more dense, but I mistakenly assumed that would mean a faster heat exchange. I didn't consider it might create a halocline strong enough to create an inverted thermocline.

Sir Attenborough explains global deal to protect ocean

newtboy says...

A good, even *quality idea....for 40+ years ago.

It took 100+ years to mortally wound the ocean by 1000 cuts. A bandaid on one wound is not going to turn it around, and we almost certainly aren't going to do it anyway. Countries that don't buy into the plan will simply harvest most of the fish left by those who do. This only works in small scale preserves that are guarded against poaching, often by a military.

Fish stocks are disappearing at an alarming rate, many going extinct. For those species, it's too late, and they are numerous, and they are largely the fish humans prefer. Many others are in such decline fishing for them is already off limits or severely curtailed, like commercial salmon, abalone, and crab fishing in California. Even those actions have failed to revive their populations year after year.

Diatoms, phytoplankton, and other similar biotas are at the limit of acidity and temperature they can tolerate, and they are the base of the ocean food web, feeding most fish when they are fry or larvae. The gasses in the atmosphere today will push diatoms over that precipice with a massive ocean extinction following soon afterwards, and we continue to add more greenhouse gases than we added yesterday every day.

Then there's habitat loss, coral reefs and kelp forests are both being decimated by temperature rise and acidification. Together they are food and habitat for 25%-50% of all ocean fish and shellfish.

Less over harvesting of the ocean is a good idea, but pretending it alone can save the oceans is pure fantasy. The ocean has absorbed as much as 90+% of the excess heat from global warming, causing oceanic heat waves that destroy habitats both directly and indirectly. There is NO plan that solves that problem, it's well beyond our capabilities under the best conditions with worldwide maximum efforts.

Just sayin'.

A lifetime spent working with brass

A lifetime spent working with brass

newtboy says...

The cradle I'm not certain, but it's likely some flux holding cage that cleans the surface of any contaminants when heated. (Seems like it's probably a boric acid cleaner judging by the bluing video) The tray holds brass shavings and uses heat to blue the parts. The shavings make it a more even heat treatment for more uniform color than a bare torch or oven can produce. The color he achieves is astounding.
I found this video of him making the bluing tray here....
https://youtu.be/uST7iJgC_gs
And a great video of him explaining the bluing process here....
https://youtu.be/NhjiIPohUyw

moonsammy said:

Anyone know what's happening from about 1:25 - 1:50? I get the polishing part, but what's with firing it in that weird cradle? What makes it turn blue?

Grreta Thunberg's Speech to World Leaders at UN

newtboy says...

@bcglorf Here's a tome for you....


It's certainly not (the only way). Converting to green energy sources stimulates the economy, it doesn't bankrupt it, and it makes it more efficient in the future thanks to lower energy costs. My solar system paid for itself in 8 years, giving me an expected 12 years of free electricity and hot water. Right wingers would tell you it will never pay for itself....utter bullshit.

Every gap in our knowledge I've ever seen that we have filled with data has made the estimates worse. Every one. Every IPCC report has raised the severity and shrunk the timeframe from the last report....but you stand on the last one that they admit was optimistic and incomplete by miles as if it's the final word and a gold standard. It just isn't. They themselves admit this.

The odds of catastrophic climate change is 100% in the next 0 years for many who have already died or been displaced by rising seas or famine or disease or lack of water or...... and that goes for all humanity in the next 50 because those who survive displacement will be refugees on the rest's doorsteps. Don't be ridiculous. If we found an asteroid guaranteed to hit in the next 50-100 years, and any possible solutions take a minimum of 50 years to implement with no surprises, and only then assuming we solve the myriad of technical issues we haven't solved in the last 100 years of trying and only if we can put the resources needed into a solution, not considering the constantly worsening barrage of smaller asteroids and the effects on resources and civilisation, we would put all our resources into solutions. That's where I think we are, except we still have many claiming there's no asteroid coming and those that already hit are fake news....including those in the highest offices making the decisions.

Every IPCC report has vastly underestimated their projections, they tell you they are doing it, only including data they are certain of, not new measurements or functions. They do not fill in the gaps, they leave them empty. Gaps like methane melt that could soon be more of a factor than human CO2, and 100% out of our control.

The AR5 report is so terrible, it was lambasted from day one as being incredibly naive and optimistic, and for not including what was then new data. Since its release, those complaints have been proven to be correct, in 5 years since its release ice melt rates have accelerated 60 years by their model. I wouldn't put a whit of confidence in it, it was terrible then, near criminally bad today. I'll take NOAA's estimates based on much newer science and guess that they, like nearly all others in the past, also don't know everything and are also likely underestimating wildly. Even the IPCC AR5 report includes the possibility of 3 ft rise by 2100 under their worst case (raised another 10% in this 2019 report, and expected to rise again by 2021, their next report), and their worst case models show less heat and melting than we are measuring already and doesn't include natural feedbacks because they can't model them accurately yet so just left them out (but noted they will have a large effect, but it's not quantitative yet so not included). Long and short, their worst case scenario is likely optimistic as reality already outpaces their worst case models.

Again, the economy benefits from new energy production in multiple ways. Exxon is not the global economy.

It took 100 years for the impact of our pollution to be felt by most (some still ignore it today). Even the short term features like methane take 25+ years to run their cycles, so what we do today takes that long to start working.

If people continue to drag their feet and challenge the science with supposition, insisting the best case scenario of optimistic studies are the worst we should plan for, we're doomed....and what they're doing is actually worse than that. The power plants built or under construction today put us much higher than 1.5 degree rise by 2100 with their expected emissions without ever building 1 more, and we're building more. Without fantastic scientific breakthroughs that may never come, breakthroughs your plan relies on for our survival, what we've already built puts us beyond the IPCC worst case in their operational lifetimes.

There's a problem with that...I'm good with using real science to identify them without political obstruction and confusion, the difference being we need to be prepared for decisive action once they're identified. So far, we have plans to develop those actions, but that's it. In the event of a "surprise" asteroid, we're done. We just hope they're rare.
This one, however, is an asteroid that is guaranteed to hit if we do nothing, some say hit in 30 years, some say 80. Only morons say it won't hit at all, do nothing.
Climate change is an asteroid/comet in our orbit that WILL hit earth. We are already being hit by ejecta from it's coma causing disasters for millions. You suggest we don't start building a defense until we are certain of it's exact tonnage and the date it will crash to earth because it's expensive and our data incomplete. That plan leaves us too late to change the trajectory. The IPCC said we need to deploy our system in 8-10 years to have a 30-60% chance of changing the trajectory under perfect conditions....you seem to say "wait, that's expensive, let's give it some time and ignore that deadline". I say even just a continent killer is bad enough to do whatever it takes to stop, because it's cheaper with less loss of life and infinitely less suffering than a 'wait and see exactly when it will kill us, we might have space elevators in 10 years so it might only kill 1/2 of us and the rest might survive that cometary winter in space (yes at exponentially higher cost and loss of life and ecology than developing the system today, but that won't be on my dime so Fuck it).' attitude.

Grreta Thunberg's Speech to World Leaders at UN

bcglorf says...

@newtboy,
"Actually, I'm selling their audience short. When real scientists present the real data dispassionately, I think the average person gets quickly confused and tunes out."

I'd argue bored maybe more often than confused. Although if we want to say that most of the problems society faces have their root causes in human nature, I think we can agree.

"I had read the published summaries of the recent U.N. report saying we had 12 years to be carbon neutral to stay below 1.5degree rise, they were far from clear that this was only a 50% chance of achieving that minimal temperature rise"

Here is where I see healthy skepticism distinguishing itself from covering eyes, ears and yelling not listening.

Our understanding of the global climate system is NOT sufficient to make that kind of high confidence claim about specific future outcomes. As you read past the head line and into the supporting papers you find that is the truth underneath. The final summary line you are citing sits atop multiple layers of assumptions and unspecified uncertainties that culminate in a very ephemeral 50% likelyhood disclaimer. It is stating that if all of the cumulative errors and unknowns all more or less don't matter. then we have models that suggest this liklyhood of an outcome...

This however sits atop the following challenges that scientists from different fields and specialities are focusing on improving.
1.Direct measurements of the global energy imbalance and corroboration with Ocean heat content. Currently, the uncertainties in our direct measurements are greater than the actual energy imbalance caused by the CO2 we've emitted. The CERES team measuring this has this plain as day in all their results.
2.Climate models can't get global energy to balance because the unknown or poorly modeled processes in them have a greater impact on the energy imbalance than human CO2. We literally hand tune the poorly known factors to just balance out the energy correctly, regardless of whether that models the given process better or not because the greater run of the model is worthless without a decent energy imbalance. This sits atop the unknowns regarding the actual measured imbalance to hope to simulate. 100% of the modelling teams that discuss their tuning processes again all agree on this.
3. Meta-analysis like you cited usually sit atop both the above, and attempt to rely on the models to get a given 2100 temperature profile, and then make their predictions off of that.

The theme here, is cumulative error and an underlying assumption of 'all other things being equal' for all the cumulative unknowns and errors. You can NOT just come in from all of that, present the absolute worst possible case scenario you can squeeze into and then declare that as the gold standard scientific results which must dictate policy...

Edit:that's very nearly the definition of cherry picking the results you want.

Grreta Thunberg's Speech to World Leaders at UN

bcglorf says...

@newtboy,

"Ok, but don't discount the factual arguments because they are presented with passion. Ignore the emotion and focus on verifying or debunking the facts presented. Because someone on Fox presents their denial argument flatly and dispassionately doesn't make it more correct."

Obviously agreed, exactly what I was saying.

"if the facts are presented clearly and in totality, which she does better than most if not all professional scientific lecturers....sadly"

I think here you are selling scientific lecturers short, or at the least including folks I wouldn't consider scientific at all in the group.

When I think scientific lecturer, I think an actual scientific researcher giving a lecture related to their field of expertise. That even excludes scientific researchers giving lectures outside their field of expertise. I've seen how badly interdisciplinary study types can misjudge their own knowledge of a field. In the hard sciences they can get rooted out faster, but in softer sciences and humanities it's easier for them to keep finding a niche that hides their ignorance.

If you get the CERES team to give a talk on the global energy budget, they will give a lecture a thousand times more complete and accurate, than you, I or Greta ever could. They will confirm the planet is taking in more energy than is leaving. They will confirm their data is corroborated between satellite and ocean heat content measurements. They can say with authority how much energy is being gained, and can even confirm it largely corresponds to what we'd expect from the increased CO2 contributions. If you asked, they would even also admit that the uncertainties on the measured imbalance are larger than the imbalance itself.

Ask them about mating habits for European swallows and you, I or Gretta might well know better than them.

Could Earth's Heat Solve Our Energy Problems?



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Beggar's Canyon