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Michael Moore perfectly encapsulated why Trump won

RedSky says...

@eoe

As ironic as it may be to say this, I think that the Republican Congress will be a strong bulwark against Trump's more nationalistic impulses if it turns out he actually wants to act on them and they weren't just part of demagogic campaigning.

If for no other reason that they know demographics are against them in the longer term. They may have won the election on the electoral college but lost the popular vote - even with all the attempts at voter suppression. In the longer term, winning with their party base becomes harder and harder.

They know if Trump enacts genuine deportation measures against Latinos then the frankly astounding 1/3 of voting Latinos that supported Trump will turn sharply against the Republican party. That group represents the fastest growing demographic in America and they can't afford to lose them for a generation.

In contrast, they will be also act a constraint against any of his ideas on infrastructure spending, congressional term limits or curbing trade. Since it's already clear he's filling his cabinet with establishment Republicans and he has little knowledge of policy, he will likely acquiesce to their suggestions for lack of any other policy advice.

Canadian Hunter Shames Bear Off Tree

Dutch Cyclist Suffers Horrific Crash at 2016 Rio Olympics

Digitalfiend says...

Can't believe she only fractured her back. The way she came down on that curb was horrific and I immediately thought that she'd be paralyzed. As a cyclist myself, I kind of wish I hadn't watched that now ... ugh.

Britain Leaving the EU - For and Against, Good or Bad?

radx says...

My comment was rather egocentric in nature. Few countries have the means to upset the balance of power within the EU and a (vote for) Brexit might just be the least horrific way of poking the EU. Next down the line would be a Le Pen-administration in France, which most people would rather avoid. Or some unforseen poltical kerfuffle in Italy.

Bad options, all of them. But austerity will lead to even worse outcomes, so German hegemony must be curbed and broken -- or the EU as a whole must be reduced to countries whose economies work the same parasitic way.

The best of all options, of course, would be political change in Germany, away from this anal fixation on austerity. But looking at our parliament, I see 630 seats, 566 of which belong to parties in support of austerity. So no, not gonna happen.

My hopes, as always, are on the French people. Recent actions have made me hopeful that they will once again come to our rescue.

Jinx said:

So what do we do? Leave and pretend there is more than 30 miles of water between us and France? Europe's fate will surely have of a massive impact on the UK regardless of whether we call ourselves part of it or not. No man is an island, even when that man is, err, a country that is an island...

Anyhoo. Maybe London will hold a referendum on whether it wants to be part of the UnUnited Kingdom.

Rashida Jones coaches Stephen on how to be a Feminist

Babymech says...

Seconded. You can subscribe to feminism and individualism, or feminism and collectivism, or any other combination of these different schools of thought - one is not 'better' than the others in the sense that a hammer isn't 'better' than a saw or a drill.

The way that the internet is turning actual schools of thought and study into 'teams' to be on is the same mechanism that drives a lot of amateur identity politics. "I don't want to be on team feminist because that team is rude on twitter, so I'll be on team humanist" is a sentiment that works great in vlogs, but which kicks all the actual thought and theory behind humanism and feminism, respectively, to the curb in favor of team politics. This is not to say that we shouldn't have 'teams,' just that we can make up those teams without discarding years of high quality thinking and actual crisp definitions.

Imagoamin said:

@newtboy Uh..dude, "humanist" and "individualist" are already philosophical schools of thought that have determined meanings that aren't anywhere near the realm of feminism (eg, an activist movement for equal rights).

I mean, unless you're trying to stretch humanist to not mean, essentially, secular thought distancing from the dogma of the church and individualist as not the idea of the individual has more weight than collective good or the state. But.. you might have to contend with the fact those aren't the definitions of things you believe you came up with.

Crazy 4X4 wheel handling‬

bremnet says...

Yes, that's true. A stock Hilux is definitely meant to be kitted out to run the Rubicon with ultra long travel swing arms, springs and shocks. Good comparison. My 1993 Ford Escort wagon lifted a wheel on these types of ramps too, piece of shit car that high centers on even the smallest curb. Couldn't touch anything on the Big Sluice. (Could the point have been that the vehicle is stable on 3 legs and with 4wd able to keep moving with one wheel providing zero traction?? For a stock pickup, not bad)

newtboy said:

HA!!! As I saw it, that's Hilux FAIL!
The point of ramps like this in my experience is to see how much your suspension can flex. The Hilux didn't do so well, that wheel is pretty high up in the air. My '73 Jeep CJ-5, which is built for 4 wheeling hard core trails like The Rubicon, and has done that one twice, might not lift a tire on that ramp.

Burger King Employee Pranked To Break Windows

ForgedReality says...

We can't just make a blanket min wage. Some places cost unnecessarily a lot for cost of living. You mentioned the bay area. I would never live there first of all, but those who choose to live there need to consider their income. There are far cheaper places to live. Then, $15/hr becomes a lot more viable.

And 99 cent cigarettes and 79 cent gas was a lot less recent than the time to which I was referring, which was closer to just 10 years ago.

I also never stated that only kids work for minimum wage. Make assumptions on your own time. I don't agree that we all should be responsible for those who don't actually mean to work at their jobs. Meaning, those unwilling to put in the effort and gain the skill required to actually do a decent service to society. There needs to be a motivator for that--something worth reaching for. Complacency shouldn't be allowed to make life more difficult for all of us. Afterall, you know that when companies start raising prices, suddenly everyone's purchasing power drops. Then everyone needs a raise again. Etc. etc. It's a vicious cycle.

Curbing inflation should be a focus, if that's even possible, along with preventing megapowers from abusing the financial system. Getting corporations out of government would be a start.

newtboy said:

What insulting ignorance you display with that first statement.
Let's discuss the bay area, where a studio apartment might cost you $1500 a month + utilities. There, even at $15 an hour, you are working 2 1/2 weeks just to put a roof over your head, then there's utilities, food, gas and insurance because you can't live where you work and don't have 4 hours a day to take public transportation, medical expenses, well, you're already FAR over what you make, and living like a monk. Now think about trying to raise a family of 4, even with 2 incomes it can't be done on $15 an hour...it really is an unwinnable struggle even if both parents have 2 full time jobs each.

You make the typical mistake of thinking that minimum wage jobs are all held by people who don't even really need jobs. That's simply 100% wrong. Most are held by adults that can not support themselves, much less have a family on $15 an hour. The amount of minimum wage jobs held by teenagers is only 20%...and that includes those not living at home. The group you describe as the norm is likely far less than 10% of the minimum wage work force.
http://www.raisetheminimumwage.com/pages/demographics
Also, you ignore the idea that teens that work and live at home should be able to save money to move out, or for school...but even living at home isn't free (just cheaper, usually) and paying them a wage that leaves nothing for the bank means they can NEVER move out and are only going backwards financially. That's a terrible financial trap to design for our youth, and is a direct cause of people turning to crime as a last resort.

Yes, it wasn't 'that long ago' that $15 an hour was a decent wage...but it was even more recent when <$.79 gas was the norm, or even high, $.99 cigarettes were expensive, $200 a month rent was average or even high, $25 a month water bill was considered excessive, milk was <$1 a gallon at 7/11, health insurance was well under $100 per month (often <$50 per month)....etc. Inflation has raised the price of most 'necessities' by at least a factor of 5 in the last 25 years, but not wages. Luxury items are just out of the picture for those living on minimum wage, so there's no point mentioning their costs. Those making $15 an hour ARE ALREADY AT THE BOTTOM TODAY. Yes, they should all get a 'boost' as well if life was fair. Clearly it's not, so it's good to prioritize and focus on those below the bottom first, then work upwards. It's also imperative to work from the top down at the same time, as the outrageous compensation at the top is a big part of how/why companies pay those at the bottom so poorly and claim it's all they can afford. If the CEOs keep taking 95% of the profits, the employees can never be paid 'fairly' or even humanely.

Super Trolling: Rickrolling with fake parking tickets

Police Murder Sleeping Couple On A Date

poolcleaner says...

NWA "Fuck Tha Police":

Right about now, N.W.A. court is in full effect
Judge Dre presiding
In the case of N.W.A. vs. the Police Department;
prosecuting attorney's are: MC Ren, Ice Cube,
and Eazy-motherfucking-E

Order, order, order
Ice Cube, take the motherfucking stand
Do you swear to tell the truth, the whole truth
and nothing but the truth so help your black ass?

You god damn right!

Well won't you tell everybody what the fuck you gotta say?

Fuck the police coming straight from the underground
A young nigga got it bad cause I'm brown
And not the other color so police think
they have the authority to kill a minority
Fuck that shit, cause I ain't the one
for a punk motherfucker with a badge and a gun
to be beating on, and thrown in jail
We can go toe to toe in the middle of a cell
Fucking with me cause I'm a teenager
with a little bit of gold and a pager
Searching my car, looking for the product
Thinking every nigga is selling narcotics
You'd rather see, me in the pen
than me and Lorenzo rolling in a Benz-o
Beat a police out of shape
and when I'm finished, bring the yellow tape
To tape off the scene of the slaughter
Still getting swoll off bread and water
I don't know if they fags or what
Search a nigga down, and grabbing his nuts
And on the other hand, without a gun they can't get none
But don't let it be a black and a white one
Cause they'll slam ya down to the street top
Black police showing out for the white cop
Ice Cube will swarm
on ANY motherfucker in a blue uniform
Just cause I'm from, the CPT
Punk police are afraid of me!
HUH, a young nigga on the warpath
And when I'm finished, it's gonna be a bloodbath
of cops, dying in L.A.
Yo Dre, I got something to say

Fuck the police
Fuck the police
Fuck the police
Fuck the police

Example of scene one

Pull your god damn ass over right now
Aww shit, now what the fuck you pulling me over for?
Cause I feel like it!
Just sit your ass on the curb and shut the fuck up
Man, fuck this shit
Aight smartass, I'm taking your black ass to jail!

MC Ren, will you please give your testimony
to the jury about this fucked up incident?

Fuck the police and Ren said it with authority
because the niggas on the street is a majority
A gang, is with whoever I'm stepping
and the motherfucking weapon is kept in
a stash box, for the so-called law
Wishing Ren was a nigga that they never saw
Lights start flashing behind me
But they're scared of a nigga so they mace me to blind me
But that shit don't work, I just laugh
because it gives em a hint, not to step in my path
For police, I'm saying, "Fuck you punk!"
Reading my rights and shit, it's all junk
Pulling out a silly club, so you stand
with a fake-assed badge and a gun in your hand
But take off the gun so you can see what's up
And we'll go at it punk, and I'ma fuck you up!
Make you think I'ma kick your ass
but drop your gat, and Ren's gonna blast
I'm sneaky as fuck when it comes to crime
But I'ma smoke 'em now and not next time
Smoke any motherfucker that sweats me
or any asshole, that threatens me
I'm a sniper with a hell of a scope
Taking out a cop or two, they can't cope with me
The motherfucking villain that's mad
With potential, to get bad as fuck
So I'ma turn it around
Put in my clip, yo, and this is the sound
[BOOM, BOOM] Yeah, something like that
but it all depends on the size of the gat
Taking out a police, would make my day
But a nigga like Ren don't give a fuck to say

Fuck the police
Fuck the police
Fuck the police
Fuck the police

Yeah man, what you need?
Police, open now
Aww shit
We have a warrant for Eazy-E's arrest
Get down and put your hands up where I can see 'em
(Move motherfucker, move now!)
What the fuck did I do, man what did I do?
Just shut the fuck up
and get your motherfucking ass on the floor
(You heard the man, shut the fuck up!)
But I didn't do shit
Man just shut the fuck up!

Eazy-E, won't you step up to the stand
and tell the jury how you feel about this bullshit?

I'm tired of the motherfucking jacking
Sweating my gang, while I'm chilling in the shack, and
shining the light in my face, and for what?
Maybe it's because I kick so much butt
I kick ass - or maybe cause I blast
on a stupid-assed nigga when I'm playing with the trigger
of any Uzi or an AK
Cause the police always got something stupid to say
They put out my picture with silence
Cause my identity by itself causes violence
The E with the criminal behavior
Yeah, I'm a gangsta, but still I got flavor
Without a gun and a badge, what do ya got?
A sucker in a uniform waiting to get shot
by me, or another nigga
And with a gat it don't matter if he's smaller or bigger

Size ain't shit, he's from the old school fool)
And as you all know, E's here to rule
Whenever I'm rolling, keep looking in the mirror
And ears on cue, yo, so I can hear a
dumb motherfucker with a gun
And if I'm rolling off the 8, he'll be the one
that I take out, and then get away
While I'm driving off laughing this is what I'll say

Fuck the police
Fuck the police
Fuck the police
Fuck the police

The verdict

The jury has found you guilty of being a redneck,
white bread, chickenshit motherfucker
But wait, that's a lie! That's a god damn lie!
Get him out of here!
I want justice!
Get him the fuck out my face!
I want justice!
Out, RIGHT NOW!
FUCK YOU, YOU BLACK MOTHER-FUCKERS!

Fuck the police!
Fuck the police!
Fuck the police!

Stephanie Kelton: Understanding Deficits in a Modern Economy

radx says...

Well, cheers for sticking with it anyway, I really appreciate it.

It's a one hour talk on the deficit in particular, and most of what she says is based on MMT principles that would add another 5 hours to her talk if she were to explain them. With neoclassical economics, you can sort of jump right in, given how they are taught at schools and regurgitated by talking heads and politicians, day in and day out. MMT runs contrary to many pieces of "common sense" and since you can't really give 10 hour talks everytime, this is what you end up with – bits and pieces that require previous knowledge.

I'd offer talks by other MMT proponents such as William Mitchell (UNSW), Randy Wray (UMKC) or Michael Hudson (UMKC), but they are even less comprehensible. Sorry. Eric Tymoigne provided a wonderful primer on banking over at NEP, but it's long and dry.

Since I'm significantly worse at explaining the basics of MMT, I'm not even going to try to "weave a narrative" and instead I'll just work my way through it, point by point.

@notarobot

"Let's address inequality by taking on debt to increase spending to help transfer money to large private corporations."

You don't have to take on debt. The US as the sole legal issuer of the Dollar can always "print more". That's what the short Greenspan clip was all about. Of course, you don't actually print Federal Reserve Notes to pay for federal expenses. It's the digital age, after all.

If the federal government were to acquire, say, ten more KC-46 from Boeing, some minion at the Treasury would give some minion at the Fed a call and say "We need $2 billion, could you arrange the transfer?" The Fed minion then proceeds to debit $2B from the Treasury's account at the Fed (Treasury General Account, TGA) and credits $2B to Boeing's account at Bank X. Plain accounting.

If TGA runs negative, there are two options. The Treasury could sell bonds, take on new debt. Or it could monetise debt by selling those bonds straight to the Fed – think Overt Monetary Financing.

The second option is the interesting one: a swap of public debt for account credits. Any interest on this debt would be transfered straight back in the TGA. It's all left pocket, right pocket, really. Both the Fed and the Treasury are part of the consolidated government.

However, running a deficit amounts to a new injection of reserves. This puts a downward pressure on the overnight interest rate (Fed Funds Rate in the US, FFR) unless it is offset by an increase in outstanding debt by the Treasury (or a draw-down of the TT&Ls, but that's minor in this case). So the sale of t-bonds is not a neccessity, it's how the Treasury supports the Fed's monetary policy by raising the FFR. If the target FFR is 0%, there's no need for the Treasury to drain reserves by selling bonds.

Additionally, you might want to sell t-bonds to provide the private sector with the ability to earn interest on a safe asset (pension funds, etc). Treasury bonds are as solid as it gets, unlike municipal bonds of Detroit or stocks of Deutsche Bank.

To quote Randy Wray: "And, indeed, treasury securities really are nothing more than a saving account at the Fed that pay more interest than do reserve deposits (bank “checking accounts”) at the Fed."

Point is: for a government that uses its own sovereign, free-floating currency, it is a political decision to take on debt to finance its deficit, not an economic neccessity.

"Weimar Republic"

I'm rather glad that you went with Weimar Germany and not Zimbabwe, because I know a lot more about the former than the latter. The very, very short version: the economy of 1920's Germany was in ruins and its vastly reduced supply capacity couldn't match the increase in nominal spending. In an economy at maximum capacity, spending increases are a bad idea, especially if meant to pay reparations.

Let's try a longer version. Your point, I assume, is that an increase in the money supply leads to (hyper-)inflation. That's Quantity Theory of Monetary 101, MV=PY. Amount of money in circulation times velocity of circulation equals average prices times real output. However, QTM works on two assumptions that are quite... questionable.

First, it assumes full employment (max output, Y is constant). Or in other terms, an economy running at full capacity. Does anyone know any economy today that is running at full capacity? I don't. In fact, I was born in '83 and in my lifetime, we haven't had full employment in any major country. Some people refer to 3% unemployment as "full employment", even though 3% unemployment in the '60s would have been referred to as "mass unemployment".

Second, it assumes a constant velocity of circulation (V is constant). That's how many times a Dollar has been "used" over a year. However, velocity was proven to be rather volatile by countless studies.

If both Y and V are constant, any increase in the money supply M would mean an increase in prices P. The only way for an economy at full capacity to compensate for increased spending would be a rationing of said spending through higher prices. Inflation goes up when demand outpaces supply, right?

But like I said, neither Y nor V are constant, so the application of this theory in this form is misleading to say the least. There's a lot of slack in every economy in the world, especially the US economy. Any increase in purchases will be met by corporations with excess capacity. They will, generally speaking, increase their market share rather than hike prices. Monopolies might not, but that's a different issue altogether.

Again, the short version: additional spending leads to increased inflation only if it cannot be met with unused capacity. Only in an economy at or near full capacity will it lead to significant inflation. And even then, excess private demand can easily be curbed: taxation.

As for the Angry Birds analogy: yeah, I'm not a fan either. But all the other talks on this topic are even worse, unfortunatly. There's only a handful of MMT economists doing these kinds of public talks and I haven't yet spotted a Neil deGrasse Tyson among them, if you know what I mean.

DEATH GRIPS - HUSTLE BONES

shagen454 says...

Give a fuck whatchya heard
Yeah fuck whatchya heard
Fore this real shit kicked your whole click to the curb
What, what...
But you don't hear me though

Run up bitch ta da death get gripped my steeze is ballin' out
Of control whatchyou know 'bout bubblin'
Hustle bones comin' out my mouth

Hustle bones comin' out my mouth [repeat]

That hot lic a shot
Never not strapped
Wit a Glock tongue cocked
Run it back
That knock a cop off unconscious Molotov
Cocktailin' sound bomb a snitch
Flat line of chalk drawn round the clock
Too many marks dropped ta count the stiffs

Stuck on the fence
How does it feel
It don't make sense
Nothing is

That rip you a new one trick I'm the true one,
And only never know me never will no son
Leave ya laid out ta fade out
Show a cunt the door
Hit and run
Hustle bones comin' out my mouth

Hustle bones comin' out my mouth [repeat]

That can't wait ta blast
Blood stained knuckle brass gives a fuck sick wit it flav on
That ex con
Hard to da bone
Darkness from the zone
Mastered and pushed far beyond

Eons beyond the line never crossed,
By dem punks livin' soft while I ride that bomb
Dr. Strangelove
Into the sun
Look no hands megatons
Rode like man we can't lose
No shit, no shit

That hit it till it drip wit
Da blood of the raw way
It was fore dem forgot
Why doin' dirt, make slang sound tough gong original
fuck da wrong way
Only one real way to work
That shit out da
Beat street spit
Über freaked heat lit
Hell flame to your brain
Blood thirst
What what...
Run it back, run it

Run up bitch ta da death get gripped my steeze is ballin' out
Of control whatchyou know 'bout bubblin'
Hustle bones comin' out my mouth

Hustle bones comin' out my mouth [repeat]

Criminal intent anti-legal ill
Thief in da night peel your life back spin the wheel
[x4]

Run it back, run it

SNL - Bern Your Enthusiasm

Caspian Report - Geopolitical Prognosis for 2016 (Part 1)

RedSky says...

@radx

I tend to see controlling the quantity of money along with the interest rate as a valid way for central banks to influence the economy when necessary but I admit in or after crises they are generally almost useless. Economics being a social science is always going to be notoriously unreliable in both prediction and in isolation the causes of a prior event, some would say almost useless.

Controlling purely the interest rates on overnight bank deposits for banks at the central bank (what setting the rate is, as opposed to the commonly held belief that the central bank dictates lending and borrowing rates) is if anything of little impact. These rates can be at 0% and if banks consider economic prospects poor, that will not cause them to lend any further.

Such was the case in the US in the immediate years after '08. i would argue the only action to have real economic impact was the buying up of distressed mortgage securities by the Fed. The parts of QE1, 2 that involved injecting money into the banks basically just led to them investing in low risk securities and earning interest (effectively just sitting on it) because they were not willing to risk lending it.

While I'm not a big fan of ceding authority to a largely independent organisation, I have to admit that since central banks have become independent, inflation in those countries has become a thing of the past. Now granted they get things wrong (e.g. Greenspan inflating the '08 bubble) but their main advantages is being willing to take measures that cause short term pain but long term gain. I don't think any elected politician would have been willing to take the measures Volcker did to curb inflation for example. In fact, while he was at the Fed, Reagan's government effectively inflated the Savings and Loans bubble.

Massive Methane Leak-Ecological Disaster In California

eric3579 says...

It amazes me they are able to keep this disaster quiet. Nothing for two months. How does that happen?

Updates on the story.

"The company's plan to drill a relief well is now underway, reports the Daily News, and they're drilling a second, backup relief well too, in case the first one doesn't do the trick. The main relief well won't be complete until March, though; the backup well will only begin to be drilled in January, with completion taking between three and four months."
More complete info in the story.
http://la.curbed.com/archives/2015/12/porter_ranch_aliso_canyon_gas_leak_aerial_video_size.php

How they located the leak and other things
http://www.dailynews.com/environment-and-nature/20151227/porter-ranch-gas-well-leak-located-as-more-families-aim-to-move

Exercise is NOT the Key to Weight Loss



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