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The Death Couloir - Mont Blanc

newtboy says...

No problem whatsoever with waivers. Are you worried that too many brain dead slugs will Darwin themselves? Why? Do you foresee some future shortage of morons?
The problem is trying to make everything safe for morons….how are we supposed to cull them if you remove ALL evolutionary pressures.
Idiocracy was a documentary from the near future.

Besides, if they’re dumb enough for all that, they’re dumb enough to know that if they can’t see the danger, the danger can’t see them, so just walk the cliff edge with your towel wrapped around your head, for safety.

If I want to risk my life climbing an active rock slide, that should be my and the recovery team my estate hires’s business. The idea that suicide is against the law is moronic to me….the only crime that is prosecuted only against those who fail at committing it. Suicide by overt stupidity or intentional high risk lifestyles not only doesn’t bother me, I fully support it as long as it doesn’t involuntarily endanger others.

BTW, the skier death doesn’t sound sad one bit to me, she died doing what she loved, and part of that love was undoubtedly of the danger level of skiing out of bounds, the rush of skiing with a 1000ft drop as the punishment for crashing (or stepping too far). I would think she probably really enjoyed 99% of her last day. Definitely the kind of horrific, quick death I hope for. Way better than prolonged disease or decline.

StukaFox said:

Therein lies the problem: most people HUGELY over-estimate their 'Acceptable risk level'.

- "This crumbling cliff edge above a 1,000 foot gorge is the PERFECT place for a selfie!" (one of the saddest deaths in WA was when one of the best skiers in the state decided to look over the edge of a cornice. It gave way and she fell almost a thousand feet to her death.)

- "100f and 0% humidity? What a perfect time to go for a 10 mile, uphill hike with only a can of Coke and some salty beef jerky!"

- "10 essentials? Beer, pot, lighter, cellphone, hat, earbuds, that little map they give you at the visitor center, more beer and is that 10?"

- "I can read a map just fine! This off-trail hike through a rugged part of the park will be breeze!"

- "I can get signal anywhere in this enormous national forest!"

- "Aww! What a cute little baby bear!"

- "Can we get an Uber at the bottom of this ravine?"

- "Let's go swimming! This raging river of snow melt will be the perfect place to cool off!"

etc etc etc

The Death Couloir - Mont Blanc

StukaFox says...

Therein lies the problem: most people HUGELY over-estimate their 'Acceptable risk level'.

- "This crumbling cliff edge above a 1,000 foot gorge is the PERFECT place for a selfie!" (one of the saddest deaths in WA was when one of the best skiers in the state decided to look over the edge of a cornice. It gave way and she fell almost a thousand feet to her death.)

- "100f and 0% humidity? What a perfect time to go for a 10 mile, uphill hike with only a can of Coke and some salty beef jerky!"

- "10 essentials? Beer, pot, lighter, cellphone, hat, earbuds, that little map they give you at the visitor center, more beer and is that 10?"

- "I can read a map just fine! This off-trail hike through a rugged part of the park will be breeze!"

- "I can get signal anywhere in this enormous national forest!"

- "Aww! What a cute little baby bear!"

- "Can we get an Uber at the bottom of this ravine?"

- "Let's go swimming! This raging river of snow melt will be the perfect place to cool off!"

etc etc etc

newtboy said:

Rate the daily danger level, sure, and allow adults to choose their acceptable risk level.

Cristal Baschet (an instrument that needs to be wet)

Snow leopard falling off a snow capped mountain

A rare view of the surface of a comet

elrondhubbard says...

I would love to have a sense of scale... How high are these 'cliffs'? Knee high?

Of course on a comet, gravity would be so light you easily might be able to bound from bottom to top even if they're as high as the Grand Canyon. You might even jump off altogether.

After the recent IPCC climate report an old 'Newsroom' clip

newtboy says...

*doublepromote someone else finally telling the truth, even if it is just a fictional tv character. I’ve been saying the same thing since around 2000. If we went all in, halted all co2 emissions and all methane emissions 20 years ago, and invested in methods to catch and sequester what we already emitted, we might have avoided the tipping point where we are no longer in control….but instead we increased emissions every year, flooring it towards that cliff and hitting the nitrous button.
*quality if inconvenient truths

That tipping point was reached well over a decade ago when methane started to melt out of permafrost and the deep ocean where it has been frozen for eons. It’s capable of causing warming >80 times as much as co2 short term, >25 times as much long term, and is boiling out at rapidly increasing rates. Pre 2006 it’s estimated around .5 million tons per year…2006 it was measured at 3.8 million tons…by 2013 that was up to 17 million tons with the trend increasing. More recent estimates are hard to find, but it’s agreed that as temperatures climb not only are hydrates melting much more rapidly, bacteria are also accelerating decomposition in the thawed permafrost, and they emit methane. The Arctic is warming up to 5 times faster than the average global temperature. It’s likely over 50 million tons per year by now if not much higher.

Shakhova et al. (2008) estimate that not less than 1,400 gigatonnes (Gt=1 billion tons) of carbon is presently locked up as methane and methane hydrates under the Arctic submarine permafrost, and 5–10% of that area is subject to puncturing by open taliks. They conclude that "release of up to 50 Gt of predicted amount of hydrate storage [is] highly possible for abrupt release at any time". That would increase the methane content of the planet's atmosphere by a factor of twelve in one shot….game over.

Bear in mind, 1 cubic meter of hydrate contains >160 cubic meters of methane gas at atmospheric pressure.

The amount of increase from bacterial emissions in rotting permafrost is debatable, but even the lowest estimates are insurmountable.

This is only one of dozens of KNOWN feedback loops already in action, and there are definitely unknown feedback systems we can’t predict.

This does not mean there’s nothing to be done, we can still mitigate the damage somewhat, maybe slow the rate of change enough that some animals and plants more advanced than bacteria survive long term. It does mean a massive >99% culling of humanity, a total shift in civilization from a money based civilization to one focused on survival, and likely an unavoidable mass extinction rivaling any previous extinctions.

Cliff Swing Did Not Go According To Plan

cloudballoon says...

[Guy pushing the swing] Ooops, that didn't go according to plan, but same effect, so meh?

End joke.

Who designed the swing? Even a non-engineer idiot like me see a few major problems (and not counting how solid the foundation it's on). The bump is caused by the swing structured in a rectanglular shape instead of a trapezoid shape looking from the front/back. Then looking from the sides, it's shaped like right triangle " /I " instead of an inverted V triangle, with no counterweight to compensate when the swing is pushed to the open cliff side. And then, of course, seat belts.

That's a EIA incident waiting to happen sooner or later. It's just sheer luck that they aren't dead.

The Ten Commandments golden calf

moonsammy jokingly says...

The Calf successfully runs for a 2nd term?

Great, now I'm going to have to look this obscure movie up to find out. Maybe there's some sort of Cliffs Notes online that'll just tell me the plot...?

makach said:

well, that's not enough context unless you somehow know what will happen next.

Pickup Truck Flies Off Overpass

luxintenebris jokingly says...

"we can laugh about it now!"

have been over that bridge.

nothing like that but did have a tie-rod come off while crossing a bridge over a river. high bridge/deep water. manage to get across (steering wheel only worked moving to the left), stopped, discovered the tie-rod hanging free. gee. that could have been hazardous.

a guy working with drove us off a 10' cliff. no damage to the truck or us. other than getting hit in the neck with the cab roof, and swearing at him for not wearing his glasses...it turn out okay.

The flight that almost killed me

newtboy says...

When I was 17, my dad took me to some cliffs south of San Francisco to learn how to hang glide. The class met at a cliff to watch experienced pilots take off before going to a practice slope. The first launch we watched took off, made a smooth arcing turn, and crashed at full speed directly into the vertical cliff about 150' high and fell. He broke both legs at the least, but survived at least long enough for the ambulance to get there.

Dad cancelled my class, I never learned to fly.

Let's talk about Trump's accomplishments...

newtboy says...

Oh fuck, Bobby...20 lies to debunk? You suck.

1) and how many lost?...tens of millions
2) citation needed, and even if true, there are many more unemployed too, there are more of us. What you neglect is that there are more trying to work because it’s impossible to live on one average income and even children have to work to pay the family bills
3) citation needed, and lost how many millions? The net has been a loss of manufacturing, most of his gains never materialized
4) for one quarter after declining at the fastest rate in history for two. If I drop you off a 100’ cliff yesterday, then lift you up by 6’ today, I still made your position much worse even though it’s incredibly better than yesterday when you were falling...I don't get kudos for picking you up after stomping you into the dirt.
5) economic growth the quarter before reduced by what was it, >30%? That’s still a loss, dummy. See #4
6) new unemployment claims hit 50year highs for 3 quarters before, and new rules take many unemployed off the list so it looks better for Donny. The unemployment rate is still historically high
7)average household income has decreased. Rich became much richer, poor became poorer. Average Americans saw a loss in income
8 ) already discussed unemployment, you’re misstating or obfuscating the whole picture
9) anyone suspected of being undocumented is removed from the list....not an honest number by far
10) more fake numbers
11) more fake numbers
12) more fake numbers
13) more fake numbers
14) more fake numbers

Here’s the real data, notice only three states weren’t in the worst unemployment position ever last year.... https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/lauhsthl.htm
Also note not a single one is at it’s historic low unemployment, and most saw record high unemployment rates for most of 2020.
I give him credit, at the beginning of 2020, before he screwed it all up with his failures over the Trump pandemic, about 1/3 of states were near record unemployment by the newer standards. I have to wonder how much of those gains were due to changing g the criteria for counting the unemployed.
When you drop your victim in a 100’ hole you don’t get kudos for throwing them a 6’ ladder
15) you mean thrown out of the programs, there’s more need than anytime since the Great Depression. It's incredibly dishonest to make qualifying for assistance far more difficult, then use the lower numbers of people who qualify as proof you improved conditions. Utter bullshit.
16) they’ve pledged that before. Call me when they graduate, until then it’s another empty promise
17) citation? Probably a Trump speech talking point
18) it was Christmas...they ALWAYS surge in Dec, usually by a ton more than this year. Let’s see the yearly number for 2020. I don’t believe for a second it was better than 2019...citation? Oops, looked it up, declined, didn’t go up. I think you’re looking at predictions for December, they were WAY below predictions.

US Retail Sales Unexpectedly Drop in December
US retail trade fell 0.7 percent from a month earlier in December 2020, following a revised 1.4 percent decline in November and compared with market expectations of a flat reading. That was also the third consecutive month of decline in consumption, amid record COVID-19 infections, high unemployment levels and lack of government's support. Receipts declined at electronics & appliance stores (-4.9 percent vs -8.3 percent in November), restaurants and bars (-4.5 percent vs -3.6 percent), food & beverage stores (-1.4 percent vs 1.5 percent), general merchandise stores (-1.2 percent vs -1.3 percent), sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument & books stores (-0.8 percent vs -1.7 percent), and furniture stores (-0.6 percent vs -2.1 percent). In addition, online trade slumped 5.8 percent, accelerating from a 1.6 percent decrease in the previous month.

19) not for people making less than millions a year, our tax cuts were minimal, temporary, and unnoticeable. What’s the debt now? He cut revenue and increased spending....thanks to failing to deal with COVID, it’s likely he doubled the debt. What was the low estimate, >$6trillion in unplanned off the budget socialist handouts to fix his lack of a public pandemic plan. This year the debt is going to outpace gdp....the deficit was up by 35% BEFORE the Trump recession.
$300 billion didn't leave...that number was the total high estimate of businesses that said they were moving off shore because they didn't want to pay taxes or said they would move back...if you believe him...and it was only for one quarter, a one time gain at a cost of >$1.2 trillion per year In lost tax revenue. Great plan. It was a one time thing, and much of that business left anyway within the year. GM plant? Foxconn? Harley Davidson? How much of that claimed $300 Billion was based on promises that never materialized?

20) not most small businesses, only those making what was it, >$500000 a year? That’s not most “small businesses “....and that tax rate is temporary, phased out completely after 10 years, corporate tax rates and rates for billionaires is permanent.

You must ignore or fake all economic data from 2020 to make these claims, and even then they would be dishonest exaggeration based on baseless claims from a constant liar.

Not one point you made is honest...that’s why you can’t provide references or citations, you would be embarrassed to admit it all came straight from Don the con’s lying mouth and not organizations that professionally study these claims.

bobknight33 said:

@newtboy ...LEARN

(20 Dishonest claims)

Instant Karma

BSR (Member Profile)

Alaskan Glacier calving Columbia w/ 200 foot high shooter

newtboy says...

No....with a "but".

I was disturbed in the 70's about how people were changing the planet, but didn't yet understand the climate portion of that issue would be the most disastrous. (In my defense I was under 10).

I became concerned in the 90's-2000's when the scientific conclusions became overwhelmingly certain that CO² and other greenhouse gasses were destroying the atmosphere we relied on.

My concern quickly turned to anger at the realisation that people as a group were more inclined to argue over minutiae and ignorant theories and money rather than tackle the apocalyptic problem.

Soon that was mixed with depression at the realisation that it was too late even if we gave up CO² and methane today because the climate is slow to react and we had passed the point of no return and were actually still accelerating towards the cliff and arguing over the correct radio station for flying.

Today I'm at acceptance that humans will destroy the biosphere and likely themselves in the process, and have to be content with the knowledge that I didn't make it much worse (or at least made an educated effort to not make it worse), I likely won't live to see mass famine and water wars where I live, and didn't put anyone else in the horrific position of having to live through the worst. (No kids).

Feel better? ;-)

cloudballoon said:

Am I the only one disturbed and concerned by the underlying cause of the calving than repeatedly yelling "Oh my God woohoo!" like I'm watching a blockbuster disaster CGI movie? It's not "entertaining"...

And reading up Glacier calving on wikipedia, the boats not even at a particularly safe distance?

Grreta Thunberg's Speech to World Leaders at UN

newtboy says...

Ahhh....but bankrupting the global economy isn't the only way to plan for asteroids, now is it? What we have done is put some money towards developing solutions that could be implemented in time, with minor exceptions for super fast unknown asteroids we likely couldn't do much about if we did have a planetary defense system. What we haven't done is just say "It not certain we'll be hit, so wait until it's a certainty to make any preparations."

In this case, the probability of disastrous climate change is near 100% if you take historic human behavior into account. For many it's already hit. It's only the severity and speed that are in question, and those estimates rise alarmingly with every bit of data we use to replace guesses in the equations. We aren't just driving our Cadillac off the cliff, we're accelerating as if we hope to jump the canyon. Even Evil couldn't pull that off with a rocket.

bcglorf said:

@newtboy,
" Sane policy makers DO assume the absolute worst modeled outcome"

Here we disagree. When you have a high degree of unknowns in your modelling, you don't always just go off the worst case. Let me argue from the extreme to demonstrate that in principle.

If we are looking to mitigate the risk of an extinction level asteroid strike, we don't solely look at the worst case. The worst case is at a minimum assuming another KT extinction level asteroid out there on it's way to us. Space is big enough that it's still possible one is out there undetected on it's way here in our lifetimes. The probability of that may be low, but it's still a worst case not impossible outcome.

With that known worst case, should we bankrupt the global economy building either a defensive capability to detect and destroy/redirect it, or the capability to abandon the planet in our lifetimes because of this worst case risk?

The answer to me is of course not, you must ALSO take into account other variables like the probability of it happening, the unknowns in the equation that prevent us picturing the problem with full accuracy, and other factors.



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