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Caspian Report - Geopolitical Prognosis for 2016 (Part 1)

radx says...

Apologies, I got carried away... wall of text incoming.

@RedSky

I agree, monetary policy at low rates has very little to offer in terms of economic stimulus. Then again, the focus almost solely on monetary policy is part of the problem. Fiscal policy can have a massive impact, both directly (government purchases of goods and services) and indirectly (increase in automatic stabilizers). But for that you either need to be in control of your central bank, so that you can engage in Overt Monetary Financing ("printing" money). Or you need the blessing of the private banks, which is particularly true for a Vollgeld system.

The budget is the core of a parliamentary democracy, and to be at the whim of the folks at Deutsche Bank, HSBC or Credit Suisse -- no, thank you very much. We saw how that played out in Greece.

Anyway, the central bank can do miraculous things: if it provides funds to the democratically elected body in charge of the budget, aka parliament/the government. Trying to "motivate" the private banks to stock up on cheap reserves to stimulate lending is just a sign of ideology.

The great Michal Kalecki, in his essay The Political Aspects of Full Employment, summarized the general issue of government spending quite clearly. The industrial leaders stand in opposition to government spending aimed at full employment for three distinct reasons: a) dislike of government interference in the problem of employment as such; b) dislike of the direction of government spending (public investment and subsidizing consumption); c) dislike of the social and political changes resulting from the maintenance of full employment.

I'd say control over your currency is too great a tool to leave it in the hands of unelected managers. Clement Attlee knew very well why he had to nationalize the Bank of England in '46.

Back to the issue of inflation, I'd like to make two points. First, how big a role should inflation really play when talking policy. Second, what's the influence of a central bank on inflation.

Where does it come from, this focus on inflation. People usually talk about government spending when discussing inflation. Private spending is rarely brought up, even though it can be just as inflationary. So let's ignore private spending for a moment and talk purely government spending: should a deficit/surplus not be judged primarily by how well it helps us achieve our macroeconomic goals? Or more clearly, why should we sacrifice full employment or our general welfare on the altar of inflation? Yes, that's over the top. But so is the angst of inflation.

I'd say let's stick with Abba Lerner's concept of functional finance and judge deficits/surpluses purely by how well they help us achieve our macroeconomic goals. Besides, the US has run massive deficits during the GFC, so much in fact, that a great number of monetarists saw hyperinflation just around the corner. Still waiting for it. Same for Japan. Massive deficits... and deflation.

As long as spending, both private and government, doesn't push the economy beyond its limits (full employment, real resources, production capacity), out-of-control inflation just doesn't materialize. Plus, suppressing inflation is actually one thing central banks can do quite well. Unlike causing inflation, which both Japan and the EU are showcases off. Draghi can dance naked on the table, monetary policy (QE, mainly) won't push inflation upwards.

Which brings me to the second point: what's inflation, what's the cause of inflation, how can central banks manipulate it.

CPI is often used as a measure of inflation, but I prefer the GDP deflator. CPI doesn't account for externalities that you cannot influence, whatever you do. Prime case: the price of oil. Monetary policy of the Bank of Sweden has no influence on the price of oil. The GDP inflator, however, accounts for every economic activity within your currency zone -- much more useful.

General theory says, this measure of inflation goes up when demand surpasses supply. And vice versa. The primary factor of demand is domestic purchasing power, therefore wages. If you suppress wages, you suppress inflation. If you push wages, you push inflation. More specifically, you can see a direct correlation between unit labour costs and the GDP deflator in every country at any time. Here's a general graph for multiple countries, and the St. Louis FED provides a beauty for the US.

That's why it's easy for central banks to combat inflation, but almost impossible to fight deflation.

Nestlé Responds to Abby

chingalera says...

the CEO's message is quite telling (somewhere here already)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Brabeck-Letmathe

Peter Braebeck, Austrian Jew, b. 1944, worked extensively in S.A. (his wealthy connections most likely allowed his family to flee Germany after the war) in various marketing and managing oif food concerns, well-known for his human rights abuses or dis-concern, a real piece a work this one and Nestle Nazi's still own a huge chunk of the world market due primarily to the wealth they absconded with and amassed during the Nazi regime.

The same CEO sits on the Board of Directors of Credit Suisse Group, L'Oréal, and Exxon Mobil.

Nestle is complete shit, bottle your own water.

USA Random Inspections on the Citizen populous (Politics Talk Post)

Sagemind says...

>> ^Peroxide:

http://www.newscientist.com/articl
e/mg21228354.500-revealed--the-capitalist-network-that-runs-the-world.html


According to this study...
http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/1107/1107.5728v2.pdf

An analysis of the relationships between 43,000 transnational corporations has identified a relatively small group of companies, mainly banks, with disproportionate power over the global economy. These are those top 50 Companies

Table S1: Top 50 control-holders. Shareholders are ranked by network control (according to the
threshold model, TM). Column indicate country, NACE industrial sector code, actor’s position in
the bow-tie sections, cumulative network control. Notice that NACE code starting with 65,66,67
belong to the financial sector.

Rank Economic actor name Country NACE code Network Cumul. network
position control (TM, %)

1 BARCLAYS PLC GB 6512 SCC 4.05%
2 CAPITAL GROUP COMPANIES INC, THE US 6713 IN 6.66%
3 FMR CORP US 6713 IN 8.94%
4 AXA FR 6712 SCC 11.21%
5 STATE STREET CORPORATION US 6713 SCC 13.02%
6 JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. US 6512 SCC 14.55%
7 LEGAL & GENERAL GROUP PLC GB 6603 SCC 16.02%
8 VANGUARD GROUP, INC., THE US 7415 IN 17.25%
9 UBS AG CH 6512 SCC 18.46%
10 MERRILL LYNCH & CO., INC. US 6712 SCC 19.45%
11 WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT CO. L.L.P. US 6713 IN 20.33%
12 DEUTSCHE BANK AG DE 6512 SCC 21.17%
13 FRANKLIN RESOURCES, INC. US 6512 SCC 21.99%
14 CREDIT SUISSE GROUP CH 6512 SCC 22.81%
15 WALTON ENTERPRISES LLC US 2923 T&T 23.56%
16 BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORP. US 6512 IN 24.28%
17 NATIXIS FR 6512 SCC 24.98%
18 GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP, INC., THE US 6712 SCC 25.64%
19 T. ROWE PRICE GROUP, INC. US 6713 SCC 26.29%
20 LEGG MASON, INC. US 6712 SCC 26.92%
21 MORGAN STANLEY US 6712 SCC 27.56%
22 MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. JP 6512 SCC 28.16%
23 NORTHERN TRUST CORPORATION US 6512 SCC 28.72%
24 SOCIÉTÉ GÉNÉRALE FR 6512 SCC 29.26%
25 BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION US 6512 SCC 29.79%
26 LLOYDS TSB GROUP PLC GB 6512 SCC 30.30%
27 INVESCO PLC GB 6523 SCC 30.82%
28 ALLIANZ SE DE 7415 SCC 31.32%
29 TIAA US 6601 IN 32.24%
30 OLD MUTUAL PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY GB 6601 SCC 32.69%
31 AVIVA PLC GB 6601 SCC 33.14%
32 SCHRODERS PLC GB 6712 SCC 33.57%
33 DODGE & COX US 7415 IN 34.00%
34 LEHMAN BROTHERS HOLDINGS, INC. US 6712 SCC 34.43%
35 SUN LIFE FINANCIAL, INC. CA 6601 SCC 34.82%
36 STANDARD LIFE PLC GB 6601 SCC 35.2%
37 CNCE FR 6512 SCC 35.57%
38 NOMURA HOLDINGS, INC. JP 6512 SCC 35.92%
39 THE DEPOSITORY TRUST COMPANY US 6512 IN 36.28%
40 MASSACHUSETTS MUTUAL LIFE INSUR. US 6601 IN 36.63%
41 ING GROEP N.V. NL 6603 SCC 36.96%
42 BRANDES INVESTMENT PARTNERS, L.P. US 6713 IN 37.29%
43 UNICREDITO ITALIANO SPA IT 6512 SCC 37.61%
44 DEPOSIT INSURANCE CORPORATION OF JP JP 6511 IN 37.93%
45 VERENIGING AEGON NL 6512 IN 38.25%
46 BNP PARIBAS FR 6512 SCC 38.56%
47 AFFILIATED MANAGERS GROUP, INC. US 6713 SCC 38.88%
48 RESONA HOLDINGS, INC. JP 6512 SCC 39.18%
49 CAPITAL GROUP INTERNATIONAL, INC. US 7414 IN 39.48%
50 CHINA PETROCHEMICAL GROUP CO. CN 6511 T&T 39.78%

2008 presidential candidates who support the New World Order

Constitutional_Patriot says...

>> ^volumptuous:
CFR is nonsense.
People thinking the CFR is going to control the world, are up there with WTC7/Truth Movement-ers, and bigfoot aficionados.
uggh, I wish I could downvote.


Ahem.....

Today in the Bush administration, every single appointee is a CFR member. The CFR prohibits its members from disclosing anything that has been said within it's closed meetings to outsiders. A recent breakdown of the 4200+ members today reveals that 31% come from the corporate sector, 25% come from academia, 15% from charities, 13% from government, 8% from law, 6% from the media and 2% from other professions. CFR members are on the boards of the following sample of corporations: Citicorp, J.P.Morgan Chase, Boeing, Conoco, Disney, IBM, Exxon Mobil, Dow Jones, Viacom/CBS, Time Warner, Carlyle Group, Lehman Brothers, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse First Boston, Chevron Texaco, Lockheed Martin, Hailliburton, Washington Post/Newsweek.

A former member of the CFR: Rear-Admiral Chester Ward USN JAG (Ret) exposed the sinister intentions of the council in the Review of the News:
"The most powerful clique in these elitist groups have one objective in common - they want to bring about the surrender of the sovereignty and the national independence of the United States. A second clique of international members in the CFR...comprises the Wall Street international bankers and their key agents. Primarily they want the world banking monopoly from whatever power ends up in control of global government. They would probably prefer that this be an all-powerful United Nations organization; but they are also prepared to deal with and for a one-world government controlled by the Soviet communists if US sovereignty is ever surrendered to them."
Admiral Ward's book: "The Betrayers".

"THE COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS (C.F.R.) IS THE AMERICAN BRANCH OF A SOCIETY WHICH ORIGINATED IN ENGLAND AND BELIEVES NATIONAL BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE OBLITERATED AND ONE-WORLD RULE ESTABLISHED." The Organization's aim is "NOTHING LESS THAN TO CREATE A WORLD SYSTEM OF FINANCIAL CONTROL IN PRIVATE HANDS ABLE TO DOMINATE THE POLITICAL SYSTEM OF EACH COUNTRY AND THE ECONOMY OF THE WORLD AS A WHOLE.....I KNOW OF THE OPERATIONS OF THIS NETWORK BECAUSE I HAVE STUDIED IT FOR TWENTY YEARS AND WAS PERMITTED FOR TWO YEARS, IN THE EARLY 1960s, TO EXAMINE ITS PAPERS AND SECRET RECORDS."
--- Col. Carroll Quigley (Ret)

"I think there is an elite in this country and they are the ones who run an elitist government (shadow government). They want a government by a handful of people because they don't believe the people themselves can run their lives... Are we going to have an elitist government that makes decisions for people's lives or are we going to believe as we have for so many decades, that the people can make these decisions for themselves?".
--- Ronald Reagan

"We are opposed around the world by a monolithic and ruthless conspiracy that relies primarily on covet means for expanding its sphere of influence; on
infiltration instead of invasion, on subversion instead of elections, on intimidation
instead of free choice, on guerrillas by night instead of armies by day. It is a system which as conscripted vast human and material resources into the building of a tightly-knit highly efficient machine that combines military, diplomatic, intelligence, economic, scientific, and political operations. Its preparations are concealed, not published. Its mistakes are buried, not headlined. Its dissenters are silenced, not praised. No expenditure is questioned, no rumor is printed, no secret is revealed."
- John F. Kennedy



And some infamous quotes from when it all began in this era.....

1920-1931 – Louis T. McFadden was Chairman of the House Committee on Banking and Curency. Concerning the Federal Reserve, Congressman McFadden notes:
"When the Federal Reserve Act was passed, the people of these United States did not perceive that a world banking system was being set up here. A super-state controlled by International Bankers and international industrialists acting together to enslave the world for their own pleasure. Every effort has been made by the Fed to conceal its powers, but the truth is – the Fed has usurped the Government. It controls everything here, and it controls all our foreign relations. It makes and breaks governments at will."
Concerning the Great Depression and the country's acceptance of FDR's New Deal, he asserts: "It was no accident. It was a carefully contrived occurrence. The International Bankers sought to bring about a condition of despair here so they might emerge as the rulers of us all."


And of course we can't forget:
-- Woodrow Wilson (28th President of the United States) stated:

"I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated governments in the civilized world. No longer a government by free opinion, no longer a government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men."

Joe Biden Another 'Israeli Firster' Zionist.

Constitutional_Patriot says...

Today in the Bush administration, every single appointee is a CFR member. The CFR prohibits its members from disclosing anything that has been said within it's closed meetings to outsiders. A recent breakdown of the 4200+ members today reveals that 31% come from the corporate sector, 25% come from academia, 15% from charities, 13% from government, 8% from law, 6% from the media and 2% from other professions. CFR members are on the boards of the following sample of corporations: Citicorp, J.P.Morgan Chase, Boeing, Conoco, Disney, IBM, Exxon Mobil, Dow Jones, Viacom/CBS, Time Warner, Carlyle Group, Lehman Brothers, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse First Boston, Chevron Texaco, Lockheed Martin, Hailliburton, Washington Post/Newsweek.

A former member of the CFR: Rear-Admiral Chester Ward USN JAG (Ret) exposed the sinister intentions of the council in the Review of the News:
"The most powerful clique in these elitist groups have one objective in common - they want to bring about the surrender of the sovereignty and the national independence of the United States. A second clique of international members in the CFR...comprises the Wall Street international bankers and their key agents. Primarily they want the world banking monopoly from whatever power ends up in control of global government. They would probably prefer that this be an all-powerful United Nations organization; but they are also prepared to deal with and for a one-world government controlled by the Soviet communists if US sovereignty is ever surrendered to them."
Admiral Ward's book: "The Betrayers".

"THE COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS (C.F.R.) IS THE AMERICAN BRANCH OF A SOCIETY WHICH ORIGINATED IN ENGLAND AND BELIEVES NATIONAL BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE OBLITERATED AND ONE-WORLD RULE ESTABLISHED." The Organization's aim is "NOTHING LESS THAN TO CREATE A WORLD SYSTEM OF FINANCIAL CONTROL IN PRIVATE HANDS ABLE TO DOMINATE THE POLITICAL SYSTEM OF EACH COUNTRY AND THE ECONOMY OF THE WORLD AS A WHOLE.....I KNOW OF THE OPERATIONS OF THIS NETWORK BECAUSE I HAVE STUDIED IT FOR TWENTY YEARS AND WAS PERMITTED FOR TWO YEARS, IN THE EARLY 1960s, TO EXAMINE ITS PAPERS AND SECRET RECORDS."
--- Col. Carroll Quigley (Ret)

"I think there is an elite in this country and they are the ones who run an elitist government (shadow government). They want a government by a handful of people because they don't believe the people themselves can run their lives... Are we going to have an elitist government that makes decisions for people's lives or are we going to believe as we have for so many decades, that the people can make these decisions for themselves?".
--- Ronald Reagan

"We are opposed around the world by a monolithic and ruthless conspiracy that relies primarily on covet means for expanding its sphere of influence; on
infiltration instead of invasion, on subversion instead of elections, on intimidation
instead of free choice, on guerrillas by night instead of armies by day. It is a system which as conscripted vast human and material resources into the building of a tightly-knit highly efficient machine that combines military, diplomatic, intelligence, economic, scientific, and political operations. Its preparations are concealed, not published. Its mistakes are buried, not headlined. Its dissenters are silenced, not praised. No expenditure is questioned, no rumor is printed, no secret is revealed."
- John F. Kennedy



And some infamous quotes from when it all began in this era.....

1920-1931 – Louis T. McFadden was Chairman of the House Committee on Banking and Curency. Concerning the Federal Reserve, Congressman McFadden notes:
"When the Federal Reserve Act was passed, the people of these United States did not perceive that a world banking system was being set up here. A super-state controlled by International Bankers and international industrialists acting together to enslave the world for their own pleasure. Every effort has been made by the Fed to conceal its powers, but the truth is – the Fed has usurped the Government. It controls everything here, and it controls all our foreign relations. It makes and breaks governments at will."
Concerning the Great Depression and the country's acceptance of FDR's New Deal, he asserts: "It was no accident. It was a carefully contrived occurrence. The International Bankers sought to bring about a condition of despair here so they might emerge as the rulers of us all."


And of course we can't forget:
-- Woodrow Wilson (28th President of the United States) stated:

"I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated governments in the civilized world. No longer a government by free opinion, no longer a government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men."

Ron Paul Raises over a million dollars in 7 days. (Election Talk Post)

Constitutional_Patriot says...

By 1970 there were over 1600 CFR members and in 1972 the Trilateral Commission was formed by Rockefeller (Chairman of the CFR). The CFR and the Trilateral Commission are not US Government created entities. The Council's first recruitment of a future president occurred in 1950 with Eisenhower. Since then every president (except Reagan) has been a CFR/Trilateral commission member and these presidents have filled their staff with other CFR members.

One example of how a presidential elect that claims he doesn't want NWO personnel in his administration, however ends up appointing such people to their cabinet is Reagan.

He was neither a CFR or Trilateral Commission member. He was neither a Skull & Bonesman or Bilderberger, however he was a Bohemian Grovesman.

When Reagan was asked who really ran the United States, Reagan admitted: "I think there is an elite in this country and they are the ones who run an elitist government (shadow government). They want a government by a handful of people because they don't believe the people themselves can run their lives... Are we going to have an elitist government that makes decisions for people's lives or are we going to believe as we have for so many decades, that the people can make these decisions for themselves?".

It also seems that Reagan was thinking along similar lines to Jimmy Carter when he gave his pre-election promise to avoid "insiders" when selecting his cabinet. When Reagan was elected, he formed a transitional team that would act as kind of a recruitment agency for the major positions in the new administration. Of the 59 people Reagan appointed for the team, 29 were members of the CFR, ten were Bilderbergers, and astonishingly, ten were from the dreaded Trilateral Commission. With George H.W. Bush as his Vice Presidential running mate, Reagan was not about to make the CFR or the Trilateral Commission or any other secret group into a campaign issue.

When Reagan entered the White House, he appointed 12 members of the Trilateral Commission, six of whom were also CFR members. As a sign of the true state of secret group influence, there were another 64 appointees who were also members of the CFR.

This from a man that stated he would take control and keep the government from being controlled by a shadow government. He appointed the exact people he vowed not to have in his office.

Today in the Bush administration, every single appointee is a CFR member. The CFR prohibits its members from disclosing anything that has been said within it's closed meetings to outsiders. A recent breakdown of the 4200+ members today reveals that 31% come from the corporate sector, 25% come from academia, 15% from charities, 13% from government, 8% from law, 6% from the media and 2% from other professions. CFR members are on the boards of the following sample of corporations: Citicorp, J.P.Morgan Chase, Boeing, Conoco, Disney, IBM, Exxon Mobil, Dow Jones, Viacom/CBS, Time Warner, Carlyle Group, Lehman Brothers, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse First Boston, Chevron Texaco, Lockheed Martin, Hailliburton, Washington Post/Newsweek.

The CFR has been the breeding grounds for future presidents and their administrations for several decades now. Whether Republican or Democrat, the men and women in power will have been schooled in foreign relations by the council. If there is a shadow government at work then you can guarantee the puppet strings pass through the Pratt House (CFR).

--------------------------------------------------------------------

If you want to read up on the CFR (and not from the CFR itself), one good source of an examination of the CFR from it's initial creation up to today is a book written by 2 authors.

One is Thom Burnett (One of Britain's leading experts on security and military affairs. He served with UK Special Forces in the 90's and has been undertaking postgraduate research in Conspiracy Theory and Military Intelligence. The other author is Alex Games - Author and journalist for the London Evening Standard, UK's Financial Times, Sunday Times, Daily Telegraph, Guardian and Independent on Sunday).

The book is called: "Who Really Runs the World?: The war between globalization and democracy". Pages 100-120 descibe many details about the CFR's history from inception to today.

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