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bobknight33 (Member Profile)

newtboy says...

Derp.
I've seen dozens of reports of increases in the 1000-1500% range, and millions just dropped with nothing....but even your lowball +30% per year is still impossible to absorb and insane increases.

Water damage not hurricane related include flooding from sea level rise and more powerful storms outside hurricane season.

You ijit....more and stronger hurricanes ARE a component of global warming, as are flood events not from hurricanes, stronger storms, and higher flood tides.

Dummy.... Of the top 5 years with the most hurricanes on record since 1851, 4 were since 2005. Absolutely there are more hurricanes on average since 2000. You need to learn how to read a graph, and to not cherry pick data by discarding any you don't like or stopping the tally before major changes started. More dishonest Bob.

If it's from the dollar dropping (no where near 50%, the dollar index went from 110 -90 since 2000, CPI from $1722-$2634) why didn't they explode under Bush when it dropped as low as 72, and why didn't they drop when Obama brought that back to 102?

Answer: because you're totally full of it, as usual.
The company's themselves say it's from higher payouts due to more, stronger storms causing more damage....Many abandoning the market for other states....not because the dollar is weak. That's nonsense.

bobknight33 said:

I Remember .

They are going up a lot. Not due to global warming .


Rates most likely going up due to dollar losing 50+% of value since 2000.



from the Herald Tribune
https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/business/2021/01/04/florida-homeowners-face-higher-rates-property-insurance-2021/4038548001/

"Property owners throughout Florida are seeing their insurance rates soar, as companies had rate increases approved ranging from from 12% to 31%. Insurers point to high rates for reinsurance, which is basically insurance to back up insurers, and claims for water damage from leaks that are not hurricane-related.

Another factor cited was that claims still were rolling in from Hurricane Irma in 2017 and Michael in 2018. Policy holders have a three-year window to submit wind damage claims. Insured losses from Irma totaled $17.44 billion while Category 5 Michael generated $7.9 billion in claims for insured losses, according to FOIR."



https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml
NOAA data goes up 2004.
Hurricane rated not more no less over last 100+ years.

Fishermen Run For Their Lives

luxintenebris says...

oh. geez.

seeing that tide get sucked out was spooky. stories of huge tsunamis drawing the water back and curious people wandering out to watch.

big mistake

Do we Need Nuclear Energy to Stop Climate Change?

newtboy says...

Depends on your definition of "need", and your definition of "stopping" climate change.

Because I'm convinced enough natural feedback loops are in effect that there's no chance at all of stopping further climate change, and only a slight chance of slowing the rate of change and only if humanity fundamentally changes first, I find the question flawed.

I find it odd that tidal energy (different from hydro) is never considered in these debates. It's simple, relatively cheap, easy to maintain, and best of all predictable and consistent. All you need is a shoreline with a relatively large tide swing, a small inlet, and a tidal flat.

At best, nuclear is a stop gap measure that trades one planetary poison for another.....largely because we aren't responsible with it....building on shores in earthquake zones for convenience, banning fuel recycling, having no long term waste plan and handling waste insanely (Japan, I'm looking at you and your plans to dump Fukushima irradiated water into the ocean)....It's far from "green" the way we do it.

I do not support a livable wage

Trump Gets Fired

newtboy says...

Rotflmfahs!!!
Never backs down.....Except when prosecuted for fraud, or redlining (denying black people access to his buildings), or charity fraud, or finally admitting he repeatedly paid for sex while married, or when Mexico refused to build or pay for his wall, or when he promises to fix our infrastructure, or when he claims massive 2016 vote fraud, or when he promises to simplify taxes so they fit on a postcard, or about Covid/masks.... Seems like he often backs down....almost half as often as he's wrong.

The too close to call/recount is bullshit. Georgia, where he claims it's too close, requires the campaign asking for a recount to pay for it, and Trump is flat broke with a zero credit rating and his campaign is deep in massive debt. Good luck....it won't change the outcome even if it flips the state, which it won't. Remember, when you donate to the legal defense fund, most of that money goes to pay Trump's bills, some into his pocket, and what's left might pay Rudy to rant in a parking lot. It's not paying for decent lawyers to try a case, they're consistently being laughed out of court for having zero evidence of their baseless accusations, most of which wouldn't change results if found to be credible. Decent lawyers won't touch these frivolous cases.

The cheating and interference was 99.9996% from your team. >300000 missing mail in ballots because Trump's guy ignored court orders, slowed mail to a crawl, and refused to search mail sorting rooms for ballots like he was ordered to by a federal judge. Armed intimidation at polls. Last minute voter purges. One collection box for counties of 4 million. All republican tactics that kept it from being a massive blowout, but couldn't stop the tide. All you have to claim democrats cheated are words from untrustworthy liars, no evidence whatsoever.

It's funny you think your best argument for a second trump term is that he was incapable of presiding over a free and fair election or of accepting the results.

It's ok, Bob. You can admit you're crying in your beer. It must hurt to be forced to realize your world view is a fantasy.....just a dream.

bobknight33 said:

@C-note
@newtboy
@Mystic95Z
@surfingyt


incognito yes, maybe, just sitting idle and watching.

Waiting for results Some states too close to call- recount?

MEGA landslide-- no so -- At least I can dream.

Some cheating/ interference-- yes-- big enough -- don't know.

1 thing for sure is that Trump never backs down.

Boats vs Haulover | When to turn around

STUNG by a GIANT HORNET!

Sean Hannity - astounding coronavirus hypocrisy

luxintenebris jokingly says...

the mental workings of a shorebird. advance when the coast is clear; retreat when the tide goes against.*

so much for conviction. at least a true nazi would salute the Führer before he hung.

*(Sean the Seagull or Seagull Sean. gotta ring to it. the initials work too)

Clearwater Beach Packed During Corona Outbreak

Why Are Democrats Misleading Us About Immigration

newtboy says...

The truth under Trump's administration is he has utterly failed and undocumented and illegal immigration has exploded under his leadership.

He's lied about building new walls, he's lied about forcing Mexico to do more, he's lied about how his administration mistreated them, but he's utterly failed to stem the tide, unlike Obama who at least kept it fairly flat around 50000 per month (and deported more than Trump) instead of tripling it to 150000 per month like it has under Trump.
https://www.cbp.gov/sites/default/files/u14651/FY19TD_May_SWB_Migration%20graphic.jpg

Blanket Octopuses

Growing up in the 1950s - Home Movies

SFOGuy says...

That might be, weirdly, the source of a confused correlation for some voters. Living standards for middle class voters ("my kid can do better than me") continued to rise through about the mid to late 1970s---and after that, flat-lined for a more than a generation, all the way to today.

The correlation that some people draw is "immigrants", "civil rights", etc...

Though, perhaps, academics might point them in a different direction---trade, tax policy, the decline of unions (driving middle class wages) in the face of a shifting industrial base, technological change, and the rise of competitors who finally recovered from World War II...

It would be nice if there was a rising tide that lifted all middle class (of all backgrounds) households still...

noims said:

What a fantastic idyllic life. Not a single black, hispanic, or asian face in view.

All I could think was GET OUT!!!

Elon Musk vs Mark Zuckerberg - Epic Rap Battles of History

Hypersonic Missile Nonproliferation

scheherazade says...

The Zero's Chinese performance was ignored by the U.S. command prior to pearl harbor, dismissed as exaggeration. That's actually the crux of my point.

Exceptional moments do not change the rule.
Yes on occasion a wildcat would get swiss cheesed and not go down, but 99% of the time when swiss cheesed they went down.
Yes, there were wildcat aces that did fairly well (and Zero aces that did even better), but 99% of wildcat pilots were just trying to not get mauled.

Hellcat didn't enter combat till mid 1943, and it is the correction to the mistake. The F6F should have been the front line fighter at the start of the war... and could have been made sooner had Japanese tech not been ignored/dismissed as exaggeration.


Russian quantity as quality? At the start they were shot down at a higher ratio than the manufacturing counter ratio (by a lot). It was a white wash in favor of the Germans.
It took improvements in Russian tech to turn the tide in the air. Lend-lease only constituted about 10% of their air force at the peak. Russia had to improve their own forces, so they did. By the end, planes like the yak3 were par with the best.


The Mig31 is a slower Mig25 with a digital radar. Their version of the F14, not really ahead of the times, par maybe.

F15 is faster than either mig29 or Su27 (roughly Mig31 speed).
F16/F18, at altitude, are moderately slower, but a wash at sea level.

Why would they shoot and run?
We have awacs, we would know they are coming, so the only chance to shoot would be at max range. Max range shots are throw-away shots, they basically won't hit unless the target is unaware, which it won't be unaware because of the RWR. Just a slight turn and the missile can't follow after tens of miles of coasting and losing energy.


Chinese railgun is in sea trials, right now. Not some lab test. It wouldn't be on a ship without first having the gun proven, the mount proven, the fire control proven, stationary testing completed, etc.
2025 is the estimate for fleet wide usage.
Try finding a picture of a U.S. railgun aboard a U.S. ship.


Why would a laser rifle not work, when you can buy crap like this : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7baI2Nyi5rI
There's ones made in China, too : https://www.sanwulasers.com/customurl.aspx?type=Product&key=7wblue&shop=
That will light paper on fire ~instantly, and it's just a pitiful hand held laser pointer.
An actual weapon would be orders of magnitude stronger than a handheld toy.
It's an excellent covert operations weapon, silently blinding and starting fires form kilometers away.


Russia does not need to sink a U.S. carrier for no reason.
And the U.S. has no interest in giving Russia proper a need to defend from a U.S. carrier. For the very reasons you mentioned.


What Russia can do is proliferate such a missile, and effectively deprecate the U.S. carrier group as a military unit.

We need carriers to get our air force to wherever we need it to be.
If everyone had these missiles, we would have no way to deliver our air force by naval means.

Russia has land access to Europe, Asia, Africa. They can send planes to anywhere they need to go, from land bases. Russia doesn't /need/ a navy.

Most of the planet does not have a navy worth sinking. It's just us. This is the kind of weapon that disproportionately affects us.

-scheherazade

Mordhaus said:

A big part of the Zero's reputation came from racking up kills in China against a lot of second-rate planes with poorly-trained pilots. After all, there was a reason that the Republic of China hired the American Volunteer Group to help out during the Second Sino-Japanese War – Chinese pilots had a hard time cutting it.

The Wildcat was deficient in many ways versus the Zero, but it still had superior firepower via ammo loadout. The Zero carried very few 20mm rounds, most of it's ammo was 7.7mm. There are records of Japanese pilots unloading all their 7.7mm ammo on a Wildcat and it was still flyable. On the flip side, the Wildcat had an ample supply of .50 cal.

Stanley "Swede" Vejtasa was able to score seven kills against Japanese planes in one day with a Wildcat.

Yes, the discovery of the Akutan Zero helped the United States beat this plane. But MilitaryFactory.com notes that the Hellcat's first flight was on June 26, 1942 – three weeks after the raid on Dutch Harbor that lead to the fateful crash-landing of the Mitsubishi A6M flown by Tadayoshi Koga.

Marine Captain Kenneth Walsh described how he knew to roll to the right at high speed to lose a Zero on his tail. Walsh would end World War II with 17 kills. The Zero also had trouble in dives, thanks to a bad carburetor.

We were behind in technology for many reasons, but once the Hellcat started replacing the Wildcat, the Japanese Air Superiority was over. Even if they had maintained a lead in technology, as Russia showed in WW2, quantity has a quality all of it's own. We were always going to be able to field more pilots and planes than Japan would be able to.

As far as Soviet rockets, once we were stunned by the launch of Sputnik, we kicked into high gear. You can say what you will of reliability, consistency, and dependability, but exactly how many manned Soviet missions landed on the moon and returned? Other than Buran, which was almost a copy of our Space Shuttle, how many shuttles did the USSR field?

The Soviets did build some things that were very sophisticated and were, for a while, better than what we could field. The Mig-31 is a great example. We briefly lagged behind but have a much superior air capability now. The only advantages the Mig and Sukhoi have is speed, they can fire all their missiles and flee. If they are engaged however, they will lose if pilots are equally skilled.

As @newtboy has said, I am sure that Russia and China are working on military advancements, but the technology simply doesn't exist to make a Hypersonic missile possible at this point.

China is fielding a man portable rifle that can inflict pain, not kill, and there is no hard evidence that it works.

There is no proof that the Chinese have figured out the technology for an operational rail gun on land, let alone the sea. We also have created successful railguns, the problem is POWERING them repeatedly, especially onboard a ship. If they figured out a power source that will pull it off, then it is possible, but there is no concrete proof other than a photo of a weapon attached to a ship. Our experts are guessing they might have it functional by 2025, might...

China has shown that long range QEEC is possible. It has been around but they created the first one capable of doing it from space. The problem is, they had to jury rig it. Photons, or light, can only go through about 100 kilometers of optic fiber before getting too dim to reliably carry data. As a result, the signal needs to be relayed by a node, which decrypts and re-encrypts the data before passing it on. This process makes the nodes susceptible to hacking. There are 32 of these nodes for the Beijing-Shanghai quantum link alone.

The main issue with warfare today is that it really doesn't matter unless the battle is between one of the big 3. Which means that ANY action could provoke Nuclear conflict. Is Russia going to hypersonic missile one of our carriers without Nukes become an option on the table as a retaliation? Is China going to railgun a ship and risk nuclear war?

Hell no, no more than we would expect to blow up some major Russian or Chinese piece of military hardware without severe escalation! Which means we can create all the technological terrors we like, because we WON'T use them unless they somehow provide us a defense against nuclear annihilation.

So just like China and Russia steal stuff from us to build military hardware to counter ours, if they create something that is significantly better, we will began trying to duplicate it. The only thing which would screw this system to hell is if one of us actually did begin developing a successful counter measure to nukes. If that happens, both of the other nations are quite likely to threaten IMMEDIATE thermonuclear war to prevent that country from developing enough of the counter measures to break the tie.

The History Guy: American Airlines Flight 96



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