ExxonMobil had the Bush administration lobbying strongly to replace the chair of the IPCC with a more agreeable alternative, which we know about because of a leaked memo. So let us not pretend that the IPCC are above the skepticism of being politically influenced. The name "intergovernmental panel" says it all, in my opinion; i had assumed the I stood for Independent.

I don't apologise for not reading the entire thread because i noticed that in your first post you said the following, and it gave me cause to doubt your take on the science in the rest of the thread. I've been in too many discussions in which i spent hours researching only to find out people were completely wrong, and i spent 45 mins on your first paragraph already. Anyway here is the quote again:

"IPCC best estimates for 2100 are about 1.5 degree increase, so another hundred years and increase that is about twice as bad. Of course, it's twice as bad as what we saw the last 100 yeas and not only survived, but thrived under."

Firstly, the planet's flora and fauna have most certainly NOT thrived during that time. Humans have flourished by exploiting nature, so yes we have 'thrived'. In the same way that if i were to steal money from a dozen old ladies, i might say i was thriving even though i was out of work during the economic downturn. Pretty much every source agrees that the one thing the ecosystem is not doing is thriving - we are in or on the verge of the sixth mass extinction on the planet. So this is an inspiring yet futile "hurrah for us!" bravado that ignores the truth; we stand on the deck of a galleon around a big bonfire, ripping up planks and chopping up the boat, throwing it on the fire and going "we're all lovely and warm!" as we sit lower and lower in the water.

Secondly and in my opinion most significantly, according to the IPCC conclusions on page 8 you have used the term "best estimates" to mean "best case scenario" rather than "most reliable estimate" - which is why i have downvoted that comment, as it is misleading and incorrect. I would say it's cynically misleading, but i suspect you've lifted that from a cynical source rather than being cynical yourself.

I don't know if you realise, but you referred to only one result out of four, the rest of which strongly indicate a greater than 2 degree rise. Your reference is to RCP 2.6 which assumes CO2 emissions peak between 2010 and 2020. A decade in which the most populous countries on the planet are developing and a decade in which we must start to reduce global emissions so that we have a good chance of your best case scenario happening. We are already half way through it, and according to Mauna Loa observatory and every other source i could find (including EPA, NOAA and IEA) we are still increasing our CO2 emissions year on year including this year, where we've broken the 400ppm milestone, 120ppm greater than pre industrial times, half of which occured since 1980 (Pieter Tans).

So in fairness, you might have underplayed the IPCC report (which you seem to get almost all of your information from) in as much as newtboy might have overestimated the dangers and rapidity of climate change. I think you're out on a limb by telling him that the scientific community disagrees with him and he's using dodgy sources, when you've cherry picked one quarter of a conclusion from one source (the IPCC) to argue for your best case scenario which you refer to (unscientifically and incorrectly) as the "best estimate".

However, i do at least appreciate that despite your doubts (and in my opinion, slight confusion over the results, i don't think you're being intentionally misleading) you are very much behind changing our behaviour and using resources that are more appropriate... and that's what really matters right now is that people recognise the need to change.

Reminds me of "Dick Like Me" from the first season of 3rd rock from the sun which explored culture and ethnicity as an important part of identity.


"you may see color, but I see people."

"Aren't we fortunate to have someone so enlightened? - O pious one, show us the way."

"This verges on sarcasm."

"You know, my heritage happens to be very important to me."

"As it should be."

"I'm Irish, and I'm very proud of that. And you're what?"

" Me? Uh, I-I-I'm, uh one of those, uh you know, one of the really good ones. You're this big anthropologist. You tell me. What am I?"

" Certifiable."

" Yes, that's what I am-- certifiable.
Certifiable and damn proud of it, as my father was before me and his father before him and his father before him.
Certifiable.
Of course, we no longer practice."

From this week's issue of The New Yorker:


Shouts & Murmurs February 16, 2015 Issue
Diary of the Left Shark
By Kelly Stout




A remarkable feat of agility was performed on Sunday night, and it had nothing to do with football. It was the sharks. . . . The dancing sharks at Katy Perry’s Super Bowl halftime show . . . danced in unison. But soon, one of the sharks, specifically Left Shark, said enough of that, and began to do his own thing frenetically on national television.

—Washington Post.

First rehearsal went great. Katy says to just call her “Katy”—very down-to-earth move. Happy to see Eric! Grateful he got me this gig, as not a lot of work out there for us sharks.

Second rehearsal O.K. Eric picking up dance moves faster than me, which is no biggie, since I’m still getting over quad injury. Still, resolving to work harder. Went for a beer afterward with dancing Blue Surfboard, named Jeremy. He’s worked with Miley Cyrus!

Eric texted wanting to know if I could use some “extra practice.” Didn’t think I needed “extra practice,” but Eric = good buddy, so I value his input. Couldn’t meet him, though, had book club.

Eric acting high and mighty in rehearsal—keeps referring to himself as “old veteran.” Feel he should turn it down a notch. Super Bowl halftime show is not a combat situation, and metaphor makes no sense.

Rehearsal rough tonight. Eric called my grasp of choreography “amateurish.” Said he did big favor by recommending me, and now worried Katy won’t hire him again. Said work must be “on a professional level” with “zero tolerance for mistakes.” I told him I was sorry to have disappointed, that my work will be “professional level” from here on out. Went to bathroom and cried into fins, but no one saw except Jeremy, who was very understanding. J says Katy makes a lot of people crazy—just ask Russell Brand! Found joke to be a little sexist—and, besides, Katy not really the problem—but appreciated support.

Katy took me aside after rehearsal. Uh-oh. But no! Said she likes seeing my extra effort! On verge of major breakthrough vis-à-vis choreography!

Happy to have long weekend off from rehearsal to regroup. Guy at brunch overheard me talking about current gig and asked if I am a real shark! Of course I’m a real shark! Tried not to be offended, but people can be so ignorant.

Back at rehearsal. Things steadily better, but sometimes feel Eric = competitive with me, since so few of us sharks in the industry. But shouldn’t that bring us closer? (Rising tide lifts all sharks!)

Big day almost here. Grandma and Mom both called to say everyone back home’s rooting for me. Pressure, but in a good way.

Eric recommended some changes to choreography today. Katy considers Eric “genius,” so took recommendations. Feel my success with old choreography hard won, so am disappointed. This time, Eric didn’t offer any “extra help.”

More dance changes today! Can’t keep up, and Eric can tell. Hate to sound paranoid, but worry that Eric’s trying to sabotage me! Going to have a glass of Shiraz to relax before practicing new moves.

Regret drinking entire bottle of wine last night. Skipped rehearsal, which I realize is not “professional level” behavior, but Eric and his “zero-tolerance policy” can suck it.

Embarrassed by last diary entry. Eric is not sabotaging me. Am letting my insecurities get in way of friendship.

NOPE. ERIC’S DEFINITELY TRYING TO SABOTAGE ME. Super Bowl is tomorrow and he changed dance moves AGAIN. Trying to make a fool of me. Unsure which makes me sadder, potential end of dance career or potential end of friendship.

Super Bowl over. Grandma and Mom called to remind me that my personal best was all they ever asked for. Am laughingstock of Internet. Gained hundreds of Twitter followers, but suspect most are “joke” follows. Katy sweet about it.

Jeremy invited me to have a beer with him and other Surfboard. Frankly, feel that other Surfboard’s kind of a blowhard, so declined.

Got voice mail from Mom this morning asking if I’m considering going back for teaching degree. Said I’m “good with kids” and not end of world that dancing didn’t work out. Ouch.

Jeremy brought over falafel last night and made me forget Super Bowl debacle with impression of Taylor Swift. Didn’t know Jeremy = T.S. fan! Promised I wouldn’t tell Katy. Not that I’ll be working with Katy again anytime soon.

Text from Eric wanting to know how I’m “holding up.” Chose not to say anything, as had nothing nice to say.

Jeremy joining book club! Silver lining of Super Bowl ordeal.

Downloaded application to Columbia Teachers College. Think I could maybe make a difference in lives of youth, plus get mind off Super Bowl. Jeremy, Mom, and Grandma all supportive. Mom asked if Jeremy just a friend or what. Her ideas re male friendship pretty “stone age,” but appreciate her interest.

Feeling O.K. about future. Dance world maybe too toxic for shark like me. Perhaps whole episode not humiliation but wake-up call! Considering move to Austin. ♦

He doesn't seem crazy, he seems angry, possibly on the verge of a panic attack that he's trying to prevent by yelling. It would be annoying but not at all frightening.

If, however, he believed that lift had been stopped so that the CIA hit squad had time to get into position - that would be a scary place to be for an hour.

This really grinds my gears. I had to listen to this irritating thing for 2 hours when my train was delayed at King's Cross. I was on the verge of going over and unplugging it.

Note: we don't say "elevator" in the UK and the "available" at the end of the sentence is completely unnecessary, as is the passive-aggressive tone.

I think you'd really enjoy the "Ringworld" stuff by Larry Niven, especially the Man-Kzin wars series.

There's a strong emphasis on what you are describing whereby space weaponry by it's very nature is so accurate and long ranged that what we might think of as conventional warfare is not really an option anymore.

e.g. a typical beam weapon could just invisibly cook the enemy crew alive in their own ship from the other side of a solar system.

To the point that the human race had pretty much given up on the idea of warfare entirely before they encounter the Kzinti.


I might argue that with Drones, Lasers, Tesla howitzers and god knows what else we on the verge of inventing we might well hit a similar wall in real life.

i.e. We get so good at doing war that we spoil it for ourselves and make even tactical level conflict pointless. (much like nuclear weapons did at the strategic level)

One can but hope....

Give a million dollars to someone on the verge of bankruptcy and they'll most likely be 2 million in debt next year.

There's usually a reason (or personality trait) that someone's on the verge of bankruptcy...

Gifts are seldom what people who merely have "bad luck" need.

What I don't get is that they keep lauding Sandra for playing this strong female role, but I thought she was portrayed as this meek little girl that barely escaped by sheer luck and was on the verge of giving up at every step and needed to hallucinate about the big strong strapping manstronaut helping her get through it.

I just don't get it..in no way was she a badass in this movie I thought.

Would you believe we're constantly on the verge of breaking up? Today I realized she's only given me three blowjobs in eighteen months and brought it up to her. You can guess how that went over... she promised to start blowing me every day. No, not really.

I think it's also just that we're in the midst of great technological and sociological change.and it's due to the internet mostly.

if you lived in a small conservative town pre-internet, It was far more likely that you'd either never say anything, or succumb to peer pressure when it comes to voicing any dissent. Any views of alternative thinking always came from someone outside that town, so it was easier to dismiss or ignore. But when the internet puts you in touch with everyone else on the planet and it's far harder to deny thinking that runs contrary to how you think or at the very least, harder to drown it out.

We're also on the verge of some huge changes like medical technology getting better and better. Instead of relying "old wives tales" to cure what ails you. We're on the verge of massive transportation changes...the slow death of the internal combustion engine, we're not that far away from cars that will drive themselves. We also have to think more about the environment.

It's a time of HUGE change, and the people who are in power don't always like change. Even people who are not in power can often get distraught and upset at change.

California is a Liberal utopia and it is on the verge of bankruptcy.

Detroit. Controlled by Democrats since 1961 and now bankrupt.

Liberals destroy societies by over taxing and taking from others.

North Carolinia is doing just fine with out Bill.
The RDU area has the have the highest concentration of PhD's per capata of any part of the US.

We already give women (and men) control over their reproductive habits. It's pretty apparent that a large portion of these men and women don't deserve that control, since they reproduce without any thought or consideration to their impact on the rest of society. If everyone were mature and responsible, there would be no such thing as abusive or negligent parents. Parenthood should be a privilege, not a right. As an aside, in 2010 the divorce rate in the U.S. was over 50%. If 50% of married couples aren't even mature or responsible enough to sustain a marriage, how can these people be expected to raise mature and responsible children? Hell, how many of those couples had kids before they divorced? You ask me to have faith in people but the numbers really don't give me any reason to.

As for these young men, I'm guessing they had lousy parents who never taught them to respect other people or the law. That's probably why they raped a girl, peed on her unconscious body and took pictures of it all. If they hadn't been caught, do you really think they would have regretted their actions and turned themselves in? No, they would have just continued life as usual, grown up, had kids and raised them with the same twisted values. It's a vicious cycle that exists because we have no regulation over reproduction. Instead of wasting taxpayer money trying to rehabilitate them (and very likely fail; the vast majority of sexual predators can't break their habits), why not just end the cycle right then and there? Humanity is hardly on the verge on extinction, so getting rid of the trash and cleaning up the gene pool would only help make life better for future generations.

All that said, you're right that issues like poverty, lack of education, etc, are all relevant here. But would those still be issues if everyone were raised to be contributing members of society, as opposed to worthless parasites that exist solely for the sake of existing? There are a finite number of jobs and classrooms out there. There aren't enough to accommodate every living person. That's why we need population control. If you extend yourself beyond your own means by having kids you can't afford to feed or send to school, you're just making the problem worse.

Just when you think it can't get any worse. When the Government is in essence run by narcissistic politicians verging on the psychopathic what hope is there?.

I'm looking forward to this, despite this bizarre promo. His movies are always intriguing, with complex relationships between the characters and strange plots. That last one "The Skin I live In" (El Piel Que Habito) was truly strange. My favorite is probably "Volver" with Penelope Cruz. Check out "Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown" from 1988, it has a young Antonio Banderas with a Rick Astley haircut.

Thanks!!

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