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oritteropo (Member Profile)

radx says...

Short version: Fuchs is a hardliner in many regards. Like you say, his perspective on this matter stands seperate from the rest of the world (except this one particular country in central Europe), which is why I used to not pay too much attention to folks like him. Bad idea. As it turns out, lots of people support his view, many more than I ever thought possible, depressing as that may be.

The entire thing is a break with 70 years of post-war diplomacy, trying to become a part of Europe again. Adenauer (Brandt) received better treatment in Moscow (Warsaw) than Tsipras did in Brussels/Berlin. From a European Germany straight back to a German Europe in no time at all...

Edit: Habermas offers his take on this matter.

oritteropo said:

I guess this isn't news to you, but Dr Fuchs certainly has a different perspective than "rest of world" on the Greek bailout:
[video]

radx (Member Profile)

oritteropo (Member Profile)

eric3579 (Member Profile)

radx says...

For your daily entertainment -- or depression:

http://www.newstatesman.com/world-affairs/2015/07/yanis-varoufakis-full-transcript-our-battle-save-greece

Appetizer:

[But] Schäuble was consistent throughout. His view was “I’m not discussing the programme – this was accepted by the previous government and we can’t possibly allow an election to change anything. Because we have elections all the time, there are 19 of us, if every time there was an election and something changed, the contracts between us wouldn’t mean anything.”

So at that point I had to get up and say “Well perhaps we should simply not hold elections anymore for indebted countries”, and there was no answer. The only interpretation I can give [of their view] is “Yes, that would be a good idea, but it would be difficult to do. So you either sign on the dotted line or you are out.”

Greek/Euro Crisis Explained

Emotional Varoufakis moved by conservative german MP

elrondhubbard says...

FWIW, I think it is sincere. Varoufakis has two points. 1) Austerity is contractionary. Forcing Greece to raise taxes, cut pensions and run escalating fiscal surpluses makes it impossible for Greece ever to grow its economy sufficiently to pay off its debt. (The debt is likely unpayable in any case, but Greece is being subject to needless suffering and endless debt peonage because Schaeuble and the lenders refuse to cede any ground.) 2) It's not possible for every country to emulate Germany and run a trade surplus, because one country's surplus is another's deficit. If you expect other countries to buy more from you than you buy from them, the money has to come from somewhere. In other words, if it's your policy to run a trade surplus then you will have to finance your trade partners somehow.

eric3579 (Member Profile)

radx says...

Varoufakis' Op-Ed in the Guardian closes with a remark that should be featured much more prominently in any discussion about the EU or the EZ:

"Based on months of negotiation, my conviction is that the German finance minister wants Greece to be pushed out of the single currency to put the fear of God into the French and have them accept his model of a disciplinarian eurozone."

It is about the Franco-German dynamic within the EU and whether or not the monetarists in Germany -- the recession cult, as Bill Mitchell put it -- get to keep the rest of the EU in a permanent chokehold.

radx (Member Profile)

oritteropo says...

The BBC's Robert Peston has written an article that echoes your confusion (and mine). I don't always agree with what he says, but there's not much to argue in that article.

I think Galbraith is right on the money, the only choices for Greece are capitulation or exit.

I leave you with this - http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-33346743 - the BBC Magazine advises Greece to follow the teachings of Zeno of Citium, the Stoic. I showed that article to my younger son actually, who's a bit prone to dwelling on past failures and would do well to follow the Stoic principle of only worrying about things that you can change and not those you can't.

radx said:

If the current Greek proposal is actually the one being published just about everywhere, they might as well sign it in the replica of Marshal Foch's carriage in Compiègne. It's even worse than the one they had their referendum on.

As if that wasn't bad enough, Jamie Galbraith substantiated AEP's claim that the referendum was horseshit to begin with.

They screwed the pooch, even I'd agree to that if they were to accept this unconditional surrender. The anti-austerity movement on the left would be compromised to such a degree, leaving only the anti-EU forces of the right credible in their opposition to austerity. The recession cult will have their permanent austerity -- and the bigots will have their revival of nationalism.

Understanding the Financial Crisis in Greece

cryptoz says...

Not sure what you mean by demand. Printing money is supplying demand out of nothing, or could be but usually backed by something tangible like gold. I think Greece has a great case for making there our own way. To start with, walking away from all that debt would balance the country for a short time to print. The country has oil for the people so the currency can be backed by that somewhat. Agree to farm and fish for new currency and people eat. The country is in a perfect climate zone so shelter is doable... in fact, I think most of the world would spend money to sleep on the beach of Greece for a vacation. Speaking of vacations, Greece could take all the Euro and Dollars in from tourism and back the new currency. The Gov would need to work extremely hard to pull it off but I think it could do it better then most of the rest of the EU.

radx said:

.

6:54 – "Printing" money is generating demand out of thin air. There is a shortage of demand throughout the entire continent. So yeah, if the folks at the ECB could type in a few numbers, that would be swell.

Even Germany has a shortage of demand. We are merely hiding it behind the €200b+ of demand that we steal from other countries, i.e. our current account surplus. But the infrastructure and investment spending over here is at all time lows. We'd need an additional €200b+ just to get the infrastructure back to the state it was in a decade ago.

There is no productivity growth in Europe. The UK actually lost a lot of productivity by its introduction of zero hour jobs and other forms of slavery. Without sufficient demand, there is no need to improve production capacities – they can't even sell what they could produce right now.

oritteropo (Member Profile)

radx says...

If the current Greek proposal is actually the one being published just about everywhere, they might as well sign it in the replica of Marshal Foch's carriage in Compiègne. It's even worse than the one they had their referendum on.

As if that wasn't bad enough, Jamie Galbraith substantiated AEP's claim that the referendum was horseshit to begin with.

They screwed the pooch, even I'd agree to that if they were to accept this unconditional surrender. The anti-austerity movement on the left would be compromised to such a degree, leaving only the anti-EU forces of the right credible in their opposition to austerity. The recession cult will have their permanent austerity -- and the bigots will have their revival of nationalism.

Germany Caused the Crisis, Germany Must Solve It

coolhund says...

I am German myself and I am disgusted how the German media and politicians are only blaming Greece. Some conservative papers (like welt.de) are ticking out completely and are turning to phrases that are very close to our Nazi history and are not allowing overly critical comments.

How Germans could chop down wages so quickly and without much opposition from the people and other parties?
The main reason is Hartz IV. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hartz_concept
Its a reform for the unemployed people, which at first sight doesnt have much to do with wages of the working people. But it does have everything to do with it. Let me explain:
Before Hartz IV unemployed people didnt have much to fear from the state. They got their unemployment (Sozialhilfe) money every month which was enough to live without much fear of anything. It didnt mean much to be unemployed. But people found a job if they wanted to. Of course, like every country, it was exploited by a tiny minority. People were happy with it and many countries were envious of that system because it provided so much social security that people got very peaceful and crime rates were pretty much non-existent.

Hartz IV was planned to cut the massive costs of that social system. The left wing government (which turned out to be massive hypocrites), a coalition of a socialist party and a green party, claimed it would decrease unemployment rates massively and save lots of tax money and they would force those lazy useless unemployed people to get jobs. They emphasized on "the hard earning people whos tax money is stolen by lazy unemployed" and used the tiny minority of exploiters to get Hartz IV under way. Hartz IV was basically a cut for unemployed people where they would barely have enough money to live from or pay the rent from it. It also allowed the government to use many tricks to adjust the unemployment rate. They for example excluded people who were unemployed at a certain age or people who were send on useless trainings (like how you write a job application or how you use a PC), which were forced on them from the government. If they didnt attend, they would get cuts on the already not enough Hartz IV money.

They got it through the parliament (since there was no oppositon of mention thank to their "democratic" coalition) and it went all downhill from there. Unemployed people were suddenly massively discriminated, even by the politicians, because they had created so much hate against unemployed and built many stereotypes in the process, supported by stupid fake shows in the media, just to push Hartz IV through. As I said before, they only used the minority that exploited the system before in their arguments, and didnt care about the majority. That also lead to companies falling for the created stereotype and not employing people who had been using Hartz IV at one time and even going as far as them looking at older employees as inferior. They got rid of them in a massive purge, which also led to the trick of excluding old people near pension-age from the unemployment statistics. Pensions dropped because those old fired people didnt get a job anymore and had to use Hartz IV. That meant that they had to use up their savings before they get Hartz IV money (that rule is part of Hartz IV), which drained old people of their money and also caused them to get caught in an even worse trap:
After a few years of getting Hartz IV money, they dropped to the lowest pension rate, which was barely above Hartz IV. It didnt matter if they worked 40 years of their life in a well paid job. Now they were poor and would never get a pension that was appropriate to their former job. That lead to a massive shift in wealth away from the normal people (middle class and poor), to the rich people. The buying power of Germans was destroyed, and it became even worse after the socialist/conservative government (yes, a stupid coalition like that is possible here) increased the sales tax by 3% to a whopping 19%. As result of this living costs exploded and black labor skyrocketed. Cost of energy of any kind, taxes, food prices, gas, rents, every day stuff you need increased massively. The Euro was to blame too, because prices of many things (especially food) were just exchanged 1-1 to the Euro. So for example if there was cheese before that cost 1 Deutsche Mark, it would now cost 1 Euro, even though 1 Euro was worth 2 Deutsche Mark. Wages collapsed, while everything got much more pricy. Hartz IV made all that worse.
Now for the main reason how Hatz IV pushed wages down:
The fear of dropping into Hartz IV (for the reasons I mentioned) was massive. Nobody ever wanted to drop into Hartz IV because they knew then everything was over. So they accepted extremely low wage jobs, even if that meant they would get less money than they would from Hartz IV, which already was barely enough to live a crappy live from. They took 2, 3, 4 shitty paid jobs instead, and the companies loved it, because they saved a lot of money with that. The problem with that was that even well educated people had fear of Hartz IV and accepted lower wages because of it. Wages didnt rise for 20 years (and they dont rise much now either). Yet living costs, as I said, increased massively. It all came together.
Germanys economy was very low at one point, yet they still tried to tell us that the unemployment rate dropped again (even 2007/08 and every year after that). People started to learn how they manipulated us and now we are here. Companies making revenue records after revenue records, yet nothing is arriving at the people. The media claims everything is well, the statistics still lie to us that the unemployment rate is low, but its not.
And now they are trying to blame the Greeks for our problems. Just like the unemployed Germans before, and the stupid masses fall for it again.
Yet they still wonder why Germans are a dying breed (population has been dropping for years now), and dont get that having children is very expensive in Germany and only few people still have money or time for that (since both women and men have multiple jobs to be able to live) because of these developments.

Germany Caused the Crisis, Germany Must Solve It

vil jokingly says...

Damn you Germans, why you work so hard making useful stuff for "low" wages?

Seriously, how can Germany fix this (other than switch to an official policy of helping Greece go bankrupt, write off some debt, leave the Euro and stay alive and in the EU and NATO) ?
Adopt Greek fiscal policy and management methods?

"Teaching Greece a lesson" is a stupid inflammatory phrase, please stop repeating that. Try "keep the Euro afloat" or "save Greece as part of NATO and EU"

Of course austerity is stupid but so is throwing borrowed ("German" taxpayer) money at unmanageable debt (to private banks - lol).

Greeks dont want to leave the Euro and they dont want to suffer the consequences of cheating their way in and being given access (by the Euro - ie Germany) to enormous loans which they had to know were impossible to repay unless they were invested properly.

Understanding the Financial Crisis in Greece

TheGenk says...

In my non-expert opinion the only way to really help Greece at this point is to release a significant amout of debt and set the interest of the rest to zero. (Instead of trying to keep on profiting on their misfortune)

And I fear a Grexit will inevitably lead to the worst case scenario for both Greece and the EU, hyperinflation in an european country.

Edit:
After having read some more stuff about Greece and monetary shell games aka economics I've come to the conclusion that zero interest debt would not actually help. Interest for goverment bonds has been declining worldwide over the last decades, yet government debt has increased proportionally.
Why is that? Well, if you, as a politician, can borrow more money for the same amount of effective interest to fulfill your election promises in order to stay in office for as long as possible then why the hell not? Some day you won't be in office anymore and the higher government debt isn't your problem anymore.
So in the end, lower interest rates may not be 'helpful' for the greek government to balance their budget.

Understanding the Financial Crisis in Greece

radx says...

... and those are comments on a video sharing platform, posted by a bloke without any economic bona fides.

Doesn't speak favourably to the state of the media, does it now...

Edit: I should be clearer. Some folks do a marvelous job of reporting on this issue. AEP, for instance, had a great piece yesterday, and so did George Monbiot. But the really good stuff, I'd say, comes from outside the media. Blogging economists all over the world are doing a terrific job. Yves Smith alone, over at NakedCapitalism, provides more and better info than the entire German press combined.

eric3579 said:

I defer to @radx in these matters

RFlagg (Member Profile)



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