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2023 Was Already Over 1.5 °C Above Pre Industrial Averages

newtboy says...

It’s scary to me that we found out that today (last year in fact) we are already exceeding the temperature spike most people believe is predicted for 2050, the temperature at which scientists determined KNOWN feedback loops may outpace our ability to mitigate greenhouse gasses even with maximum effort on all fronts and spending every possible dollar and still (almost) NO ONE CARES.

It has barely made the news anywhere, definitely not on any of the major U.S. networks and will never be on anti-science righty media.

I would shout “WAKE THE FUCK UP PEOPLE!” But it’s abundantly clear humanity is completely comatose and shows no sign of recognizing the situation we are in no matter what they see outside their own windows daily.

The pot is boiling and we frogs are still arguing over how wet the water is.

NDT Explains Why 2023 Climate Models Failed

newtboy says...

More explanation of why the proposed “solutions” are not really solutions or even feasible at all, they’re pernicious pablum.


Yes, it’s much worse than they’re telling you, well beyond the point of no return, and we aren’t even trying to be better yet.
Every study of actual data shows the climate is reacting faster than predicted to higher greenhouse gasses and feedback loops are in full effect in many areas of the planet, feedback loops not included in most climate models.
There is only one solution that works with all models…eliminate 95% of the human population. Since that’s a non starter, accept that civilization as we know it, and most animals are doomed. It’s the roaches’ time soon.

We Completely Underestimate How Bad Things Are Going To Get

newtboy says...

The problem is there is nothing we can do to save ourselves if we don’t prevent the current trends in climate change.

Becoming Morlocks, living underground and becoming C.H.U.D.S., is not a real option for the species. Living above ground with the hydrogen sulfide clouds after ocean death is not an option. Flying away to live in fragile bubbles on the moon or mars is not a real option.

If we don’t stop climate change before natural feedback loops overpower our ability to intervene (I think we are past that point today) we will not survive as a species or civilization, and the event will eventually likely rival the Permian extinction event for the title of worst extinction in planetary history.

HugeJerk said:

At some point, probably sooner than we expect, there will be a shift in what the researchers are talking about... a swap from what we need to do to prevent climate change to what we need to do to save ourselves from the results. The response will be the same, arguments against doing anything because of the cost.

The Biggest Science Story of the Week

newtboy says...

*doublepromote someone else finally noticing global dimming as a significant factor in global warming.

Global dimming from excess sulfur dioxide may be responsible for cutting the current excess anthropogenic heat in the system by between 15% to 50% depending on the study.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/13/what-is-solar-geoengineering-sunlight-reflection-risks-and-benefits.html
What this means is, if we stop polluting tomorrow, the CO2 and other greenhouse gases will continue to warm us at the same rate for decades to centuries, but the sulfur dioxide that has blocked between .25 to 2 degrees Celsius temperature rise will be gone almost immediately, and a significant sudden rise in temp will be the result kicking off or feeding more feedback loops.

While it may seem he’s onto some global warming solution…just put more sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere…that ignores the lower growth rates and lost solar production it causes by deflecting a significant percentage of sunlight, both adding to net CO2 added to the system.
The incredibly scary part is the whitehouse and other international governments are actively researching ways to inject sulfur dioxide into the upper atmosphere despite knowing it has so many issues.

There’s no easy fix.

lucky760 (Member Profile)

newtboy says...

Then here’s a bit more feedback….I’m still at 4-5 a week….still loving it. Thanks!

lucky760 said:

Hey, thanks a lot for reaching out!

It's just hearing this kind of rare feedback that keeps me motivated to keep at it.

😄

noims (Member Profile)

lucky760 says...

Hey, thanks a lot for reaching out!

It's just hearing this kind of rare feedback that keeps me motivated to keep at it.

😄

noims said:

Just saw your conversation with Newt about Phrasle. Just to say, I still play about 4-5 days a week too, and love the reward of learning about the phrase. Of course, it's up to you to say if the effort is worth it, but it's definitely appreciated.

“Don’t Look Up” in Real Life

newtboy says...

19 of the 20 hottest years ever recorded have occurred in the last 21 years.
8 of the hottest 8 years ever recorded were the last 8 years.

Black is not white. Up is not down. Hot is not cold….no matter how many times you say it, Bob. Being too dumb to even understand the science or its implications have you just denying it….like if you don’t understand it must not be true. 🤦‍♂️
It is well known that the right’s MO is to just lie about what their opponent claims, then debunk their own lie, ignoring the actual claims. It’s the best you can do, and the right’s constituents are so intellectually absent, incurious, and not just willing but wanting to be spoon fed propaganda that you buy it without ever investigating a thing. I know this to be true, because everyone who actually looks at the data (and doesn’t just misrepresent it completely) comes to the same conclusion (unless they’re selling something).

2030 did not come from Greta. It came from multiple climate reports, except for those who said we had less time.
It’s a purposeful intent to mislead the public to say the reports say ultimate disaster happens in 2030, they don’t, and the right knows they don’t say that and knows that’s not what climate activists say either…it says at current rates (when the report was written) by 2030 1.5C rise would be locked in, unavoidable. CO2 can last 300-1000 years actively in the atmosphere. Stopping adding CO2 and methane when we are at the line of 1.5C rise is planning for disaster with no backup and no margin for error when the stakes are literally survival of the species and civilization. In fact, rates have increased since the data was collected, so 2030 is too late….2000 may have been too late to stop runaway climate change, but we can still minimize or slow the impacts.

1.5C is when we lose control and feedback loops (likely) take over our ability to have any control. It’s too bad so many idiots are too dumb to comprehend that yet still have the resources to effect the outcome. “Mea culpa” isn’t going to restore the planet when they finally admit the undeniable, neither is their heads on pikes nor their children being used as food, but that’s where we’re going. Too bad we aren’t there yet, it would save a hell of a lot of problems if we just eradicated the irresponsible money worshiping morons in favor of people who put a livable planet above record quarterly profits.

bobknight33 said:

Climate change denial

newtboy (Member Profile)

lucky760 says...

You're still playing it?!

Awesome my friend. Thanks so much for the feedback!

It's become a bit of a burden because I still manually create every puzzle, so every night near midnight I start frantically trying to get the next puzzle ready.

😅

newtboy said:

Still loving phrasle. Just some positive feedback.

lucky760 (Member Profile)

“Don’t Look Up” in Real Life

newtboy says...

Lol.
Reasontv, the network of the insanity from Stossel, with the stated position that “free market and deregulation is the solution to any and every problem imaginable”. That’s the best you’ve got!?! Then you’ve got NOTHING. You actually complain that CNN isn’t trustworthy, then you post from Reasontv!?! Er mer gerd! 🤦‍♂️ why not just post Beck or Jones?

They completely misrepresent what the report, and climate activists, and politicians have said with bad editing and lies here, no surprise, you posted it, it was guaranteed to be DISHONEST nonsense propaganda.

Land temperatures reached 1.3C above pre industrial norms in 2020. Every prediction made has come true well ahead of schedule. Temperature rise is accelerating, it’s not the flat straight line nor a slowing rate like they showed but an increasing curve. The last 7 years were all in the top 10 hottest ever, the last decade had 9 of the hottest ever, and we are experiencing a global drought never seen by modern man….but according to you, nothing burger, totally normal, chicken little.

https://www.iflscience.com/nine-of-the-top-10-hottest-years-ever-all-occurred-in-the-last-decade-62232

There is one thing I agree with, the “12 years to stop climate disaster” notion (not what the science says btw) is wrong. We have -20 years +-. The CO2 we put in the atmosphere today will effect climate for hundreds to a thousand years, the nitrous oxide for about 120, methane around 10. We have reached the point where natural emissions will soon take over, adding more than humans ever did. Scientists estimate that’s at 1.5C, but every estimate they’ve made public has turned out to be optimistic in the extreme, so 1.5C is almost certainly wishful thinking and 1.25C is more likely the threshold. We can both mitigate the effects and slow the rate of change, but at this point staying below 1.5C is a pipe dream no one is actually even working towards.

I think the reality is that, using current models, assuming no surprises or feedback loops, we have (now 8 ) years before the adding these greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere will carry us well beyond 1.5C above “normal” with no additional emissions needed….not that we will definitely hit 1.5 by 2030 but we will be able to coast there even with zero emissions.
I know, math and science together, way too hard, better to just listen to the oil spokesmen who say “it’s a hoax, pay no attention to the cities reaching 130F, the unprecedented heat globally, the rapidly melting (or melted) glaciers that historically provide drinking water for 1.9 BILLION people, or the never before seen by man extreme global droughts, they’re all normal and natural and why are you still talking about it?”.

No surprise, one more undeniable, in your face disaster you simply deny exists….like Covid, Jan 6, Russian election interference, -3.5%gdp, Trump terrorism, etc.
Can we have your name so when the global food supply is insufficient we know who’s family to deny food?

bobknight33 said:

Silly nonsense

We WILL Fix Climate Change!

newtboy says...

What’s he mean “young people”? I’m 50, I’ve felt that way since 1990 because I pay attention. We are addicts, addicts use until they die, they don’t quit because their health suffers.

At 3 degrees some developing countries won’t be able to feed their population!?! WTF?! That was the case before any climate changes, dummy. It’s bad now. It will be apocalyptic relatively soon…like decades, not centuries.

WILL cause trillions in damage!?….guess again, already happened. It WILL cause tens of trillions in damage per year, eventually outpacing global gdp.

What scientists are he counting when he says “most agree” we won’t see this kind of future? Certainly not climate scientists, they agree it’s happening, and none see it even slowing, much less getting better. From what I saw, they just went on strike because they’re sick of being ignored.

Leveled off, eh? Look at your own graph to see that China’s coal consumption went up by 5000 twh equivalents since 2010, and is insanely massive…it went up by more than the US used at its highest levels (in his timeline). But he calls that “leveled off”. Who is this guy? He’s insane or lying through his teeth.

Solar and wind have been better than coal economically for decades, but we haven’t switched over, have we?

Where does he get his statistics, because every time I see real numbers we’ve only slowed our increased emissions by 4%, we have not actually reduced them….like saying Obama reduced the military budget because he didn’t increase it as much as previous administrations. It’s asinine.

India isn’t building trillions in solar, they’re building fossil fuel power plants and hydro electric, also disastrous for the environment….and useless after their glaciers fail.

The CO2 in the atmosphere will be there for 300-1000 years, carbon capture is a ridiculous pipe dream that completely ignores the scope of the problem. Methalhydrate is already destabilized, and it’s 25 times as potent as CO2. The total global amount of methane carbon bound up in these hydrate deposits is in the order of 1000 to 5000 gigatonnes – i.e. about 100 to 500 times more carbon than is released annually into the atmosphere by the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas). It’s melting now faster every day, and will surpass human carbon emissions.

None of his “requirements” are happening. What we need is less people….like 90% less.

Progress is being made, minor progress in small amounts on tiny scales…so are increases in emissions but on massive scales and unfathomable amounts….emissions that needed to be at zero decades ago to save civilization as we know it. Climate refugees exist today in huge numbers, think how difficult 1 million Syrians were for Europe to absorb, now multiply by 2000 or more when all equatorial nations become uninhabitable. Where will we grow food with refugees covering every bit of land? Get real.

He admits that stopping warming below 1.5 degrees is impossible, and 3 degrees before 2021 likely (many say by 2050). Did he forget that 1.5 degrees warming is where we lose control and feedback loops make our emissions moot?

Do you even science, dude?

He gave me zero hope, because I know most of his pie in the sky “hope” is utterly ridiculous and runs contrary to reality and human nature. I wanted some good news, I got pablum.
Booo Kurzgesagt. Try being honest and not ignoring the facts, please. BOOOOO!

Phrasle - Daily Phrase Puzzle (Sift Talk Post)

lucky760 says...

Thanks a lot for the feedback, @eric3579!

I was trying for a long time to come up with a way to add at least a small level strategy into the mix, without making it too weird or confusing.

Now it's a bit more like Wheel of Fortune and less like plain old hangman I suppose.

newtboy (Member Profile)

lucky760 says...



Thanks for the feedback! It's much appreciated.

newtboy said:

I feel like, if integrated here, this could drive traffic to the sift. Not sure if that’s your plan or wish, just a thought.
Also, copyright it now!!! Wordle sold for “low seven figures” to the New York Times.

Australia's Honest Government Ad | COP26 Climate Summit

newtboy says...

I think the worst part of these summits is their stated goals.
Paris intended to keep warming to 1.5 degrees by 2050 (no real plan beyond then)…but you might recall, 1.5 degrees of warming is considered the tipping point where feedback loops and natural processes outpace human inputs, meaning even if we hit zero emissions by 2050, and if everyone kept to their Paris agreement promises, and if other nations don’t continue to ramp up emissions, and if unforeseen feedback loops aren’t stronger or faster acting than predicted, we still lose control completely by 2050. That’s the best plan we have, runaway climate shifts in <30 years AT BEST….and no one seems to be living up to even that planned disaster of a plan. Emissions aren’t being cut, they’re increasing. Feedback loops are ramping up 40 years earlier than predicted. All the while, people are complaining that gas is over $3 (I haven’t seen it under $4 in decades where I live) and insisting we adopt some heavily polluting power generation instead of investing in green energy solutions. People assume, it seems, that some last minute fix will solve climate change, ignoring the fact that emissions from today are reactive in the atmosphere for between 25 and 150 years, so we needed to be at net zero 25 years ago to even start effecting the atmosphere today…and some emissions from the industrial revolution are still effecting us now. Net zero by 2050 (a pipe dream, and the best plan so far) is planning to fail completely…like turning off the blast furnace in your house when the thermometer hits 450.5 inside and thinking you can stop it from burning down.
If Covid taught us anything, it’s that there is 0% chance humans will be able to cooperate enough to tackle climate change. People were asked to simply wear a mask and distance a bit to save their lives, and enough refused to do it that the methods that worked beautifully elsewhere failed miserably to control a virus. If we can’t pull off such a simple, blatantly obvious plan against a virus, what chance is there of cooperation across the board to sacrifice enormous amounts of money and completely revamp our wasteful way of life in uncountable ways to stop something seen as a future problem by many? IMO, there so little chance of pulling it off that it’s statistically correct to say there’s absolutely no chance at all.

Your not that guy pal (original)

SFOGuy says...

It's the barely contained trigger rage that is weird about these folks.
And they feedback into themselves with their choices of information. So odd.



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