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ant (Member Profile)

Finally a Doctor on the News Talking Fucking Sense

newtboy says...

Yes, but my understanding is that the point isn't to starve the virus for hosts until it's dead, it's to slow the spread enough that hospitals aren't overrun. When they are, death rates explode, logically from 3-3.5% up to 15-20%. Of course, this plan relies on the hope that immunity is relatively full and permanent, something we don't know yet.

If people weren't morons, I would agree about parks and beaches....but they are. Even those smart enough to try and social distance in public often forget and hug goodbye, and most aren't being that smart.

The problem with sending people back is we don't have a single study on immunity. We don't know if you have full immunity after recovering from being infected, or if so how long it might last. Many other coronaviruses mutate enough that immunity is for one season at best. We need to study the virus in detail before making assumptions on life and death issues, and it's smart to err on one side of caution with stakes this high until we know. Opening up before we know is a pure gamble....the odds might be good, but the stakes are sky high.

In a near worst case scenario, it's possible that Covid19 is going to remain as dangerous as it is today for some time with reinfection possible, and that any future vaccines will need yearly changes and booster shots to be effective, like the flu shot but hopefully more effective. In that case, the best we can really do is be prepared for a constant flow of large numbers of patients and deaths. That's going to require a complete retooling and expansion of the medical system, but silver lining, it's hundreds of thousands of good paying jobs that robots can't do...yet.

greatgooglymoogly said:

If everyone somehow isolates and we get down to only only 10 new cases a day, and we let everyone out, that only resets the clock to February with the addition of a million or so people already infected and immune. Everything goes back to shit in another couple months. People's behavior changing will help slow the spread, but will not prevent it. There's plenty you can do outside the home a safe distance from other people with minimal risk, certainly less than just going to shop for food. It's ridiculous they are shutting down beaches where it's simple to walk 20' away from anybody else. To limit crowds just close down parking spaces.

Antibody tests should allow recovered people back into regular life, but the only way we get a lot of recovered people is to have a lot of sick people first. Keep the elderly and high risk people confined, and let everyone else out with reasonable precautions(no gatherings over 20, etc). The only other alternative is a 6-12 month lockdown and 100% testing, which is simply never going to happen. You would still have to lock down the borders until the rest of the world has it under control too.

Finally a Doctor on the News Talking Fucking Sense

greatgooglymoogly says...

If everyone somehow isolates and we get down to only only 10 new cases a day, and we let everyone out, that only resets the clock to February with the addition of a million or so people already infected and immune. Everything goes back to shit in another couple months. People's behavior changing will help slow the spread, but will not prevent it. There's plenty you can do outside the home a safe distance from other people with minimal risk, certainly less than just going to shop for food. It's ridiculous they are shutting down beaches where it's simple to walk 20' away from anybody else. To limit crowds just close down parking spaces.

Antibody tests should allow recovered people back into regular life, but the only way we get a lot of recovered people is to have a lot of sick people first. Keep the elderly and high risk people confined, and let everyone else out with reasonable precautions(no gatherings over 20, etc). The only other alternative is a 6-12 month lockdown and 100% testing, which is simply never going to happen. You would still have to lock down the borders until the rest of the world has it under control too.

newtboy said:

Because some states aren't quarantining and interstate travel isn't restricted, you need to stay home 3 weeks AFTER the entire country finally quarantines, otherwise it's all for nothing and the outbreak will restart with a vengeance and that 100000-250000 dead will become 6000000+-.

newtboy (Member Profile)

Tim Minchin | Leaving LA

Angua1 says...

I was born and raised in LA. He's right about the sign. Should have just gone to the beach though tbh. Boogie boarding at Toes is the only way to enjoy LA. Or seeing my folks. They will give you toast.

C-note (Member Profile)

Sailing The Sea Of Stones

cloudballoon says...

I think we humans can afford a few beach destinations for a couple of years to help out the GBR, especially considering the dire state the GBR is in now.

Reading from Wiki, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pumice, it is not harmful to the fishies and even got lots of commercial value to it.

newtboy said:

Reading closely, it has the potential to be beneficial in certain ways, but there's no guarantee any of the infant coral it brings will be able to establish themselves.

I keep wondering what it's going to do to beach ecosystems in the area. I'm sure it's going to be bad for tourism, and could be horrible for fish. I hope someone is studying what it's done to the ocean chemistry.

Sailing The Sea Of Stones

newtboy says...

Reading closely, it has the potential to be beneficial in certain ways, but there's no guarantee any of the infant coral it brings will be able to establish themselves.

I keep wondering what it's going to do to beach ecosystems in the area. I'm sure it's going to be bad for tourism, and could be horrible for fish. I hope someone is studying what it's done to the ocean chemistry.

cloudballoon said:

Reading that last sentence.... so it's a good thing right?

Mordhaus (Member Profile)

Vox: The Green New Deal, explained

newtboy says...

Here, Bob.
I've got that super cheap ocean front property that you said doesn't exist, for you. Put your money where your mouth is and buy your own low lying island.
Astonishing the lengths these frauds have gone to in order to sell the liberal agenda. Eroding their own homes and removing long established islands just to get on the climate change bandwagon....right? These people are really committed to the lie. Take advantage and buy some beach front property....or do you not believe what you spout?

*related=https://videosift.com/video/Climate-Change-Is-Erasing-Large-Island-Chains

bobknight33 said:

A fools paradise, The ultimate "boy that cried wolf" BS.

This has been going on since the 70's Teh sky is falling.

Now last 30 years kids have been told this farce and like kid do they believe all this BS. Some become senators / politicians and continue to cry wolf.

in another 50 years from now all will be fine, just like it is now.

*lies

How This Cyclist Hit 184MPH and Set the World Record

BSR says...

Again, SHE'S NOT A PRO! She doesn't take anything away from the pros but also gives them a chance to break her record. (If they got the guts)

Unrelated, this is me back in 2011 making a 2,500 mile bike trip which I did in 3 months. It was something I did to see if I actually wanted to bike across country. From Cape Canaveral beach to Vandenberg Air Force Base. I would carry a sample of sand from the east and then dump it on the beach in the west.

Due to circumstances beyond my control I still haven't been able to make that trip. But I loved every minute of the trip I did.

https://imgur.com/4LjMuiP

newtboy said:

I think pro riders don't go for this record because they don't see it as a legitimate riding record, just a dangerous equipment test.

Funny Sea Bath

These kids play outside no matter how cold it gets

DrMaximan says...

Put me on a warm sunny beach any day and I will be happy!
But I love how you are teaching the kids how to adapt to their environment and love it for what it is, it will teach then invaluable lessons in the future, no matter how much the climate might change.
We can learn so much from both indigenous communities and from other foreign communities around the globe, so embrace it, learn from it and teach each other the best way to survive.
Denial, arrogance and lack of understanding our environment are the best ways of failing our chance of survival.
Great video, great kindergarten!

How to ride a sidecar motorbike

HugeJerk says...

I looked at the Urals at the Long Beach Motorcycle Show... they're neat, but so under powered. I think they use an engine knock-off design from really old BMW's.

How these penny-pinchers retired in their 30s

DanHas says...

Long time lurker, first time commenter. I just wanted to say newtboy is spot on with my experiences in Humboldt County.

My Wife went to College at Humboldt State and we spent a week there back in May. We rented an Airbnb in Trinidad and it was incredible. Every day we were out on the beach or hiking through the towering redwoods. Not to mention eating insanely fresh food!

Everything was incredibly clean and fresh, from the air and oceans to the forests and rivers.

StukaFox said:

Newt,

Thanks, man! It sounds like paradise!



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