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Finally a Doctor on the News Talking Fucking Sense

newtboy says...

Yes, but my understanding is that the point isn't to starve the virus for hosts until it's dead, it's to slow the spread enough that hospitals aren't overrun. When they are, death rates explode, logically from 3-3.5% up to 15-20%. Of course, this plan relies on the hope that immunity is relatively full and permanent, something we don't know yet.

If people weren't morons, I would agree about parks and beaches....but they are. Even those smart enough to try and social distance in public often forget and hug goodbye, and most aren't being that smart.

The problem with sending people back is we don't have a single study on immunity. We don't know if you have full immunity after recovering from being infected, or if so how long it might last. Many other coronaviruses mutate enough that immunity is for one season at best. We need to study the virus in detail before making assumptions on life and death issues, and it's smart to err on one side of caution with stakes this high until we know. Opening up before we know is a pure gamble....the odds might be good, but the stakes are sky high.

In a near worst case scenario, it's possible that Covid19 is going to remain as dangerous as it is today for some time with reinfection possible, and that any future vaccines will need yearly changes and booster shots to be effective, like the flu shot but hopefully more effective. In that case, the best we can really do is be prepared for a constant flow of large numbers of patients and deaths. That's going to require a complete retooling and expansion of the medical system, but silver lining, it's hundreds of thousands of good paying jobs that robots can't do...yet.

greatgooglymoogly said:

If everyone somehow isolates and we get down to only only 10 new cases a day, and we let everyone out, that only resets the clock to February with the addition of a million or so people already infected and immune. Everything goes back to shit in another couple months. People's behavior changing will help slow the spread, but will not prevent it. There's plenty you can do outside the home a safe distance from other people with minimal risk, certainly less than just going to shop for food. It's ridiculous they are shutting down beaches where it's simple to walk 20' away from anybody else. To limit crowds just close down parking spaces.

Antibody tests should allow recovered people back into regular life, but the only way we get a lot of recovered people is to have a lot of sick people first. Keep the elderly and high risk people confined, and let everyone else out with reasonable precautions(no gatherings over 20, etc). The only other alternative is a 6-12 month lockdown and 100% testing, which is simply never going to happen. You would still have to lock down the borders until the rest of the world has it under control too.

Sagemind (Member Profile)

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Nirvana vs Rick Astley: Never Gonna Give Your Teen Spirit Up

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