UPDATE

As further evidence of my own brilliance on this subject...

http://www.vanityfair.com/online/daily/2010/06/dailykoss-kos-to-sue-polling-company-research-2000.html

Yup. The poll - and others - performed by Research 2000 is unadulterated bunk. As usual, left wingnuts got all wet and sticky over a lie.

There's also the poll Research 2000 did for DailyKos asking basic questions to self-identified Republicans, which is awesome.

From TPM:

Here's our daily composite of the five major national tracking polls. Barack Obama still holds a solid lead over John McCain, with the overall margin is unchanged from yesterday:

• Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 41%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-43% Obama lead yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-45% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 48%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, compared to a 49%-41% Obama lead yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 40%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 53%-40% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 48%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 49%-43% Obama lead yesterday.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.1%-42.5%, a lead of 7.6 points, compared to a 50.4%-42.8% Obama lead yesterday. The undecideds have increased by a total of 0.6%, but it's come equally out of both candidates' scores.

Fivethirtyeight.com gives McCain a 6.2% chance of winning.

Pollster.com shows Obama as having 320 EV's with just lean/solid Democratic states, 270 EV needed to win.

Even the conservative-run realclearpolitics.com shows Obama with 277 EV's, not counting toss-up states -- and their map matches my gut feeling about what states are in play at this point.

Obama people can't afford to be complacent, but McCain has a huge hill to climb if he expects this to even be close.

Right where he wants us, indeed.