James Howard Kunstler would approve.

James Howard Kunstler would have something to say about this, and it would go something like this. "HAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHWBAAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahahhahahahhahahahhahahaha... cheese doodles"

>> ^bcglorf:

Thank you for your reply.

You made it clear that I may have made an error in my previous comment. I think I should clarify that what I meant by "personal transport" was light vehicles for personal uses, as is the minivan or motorcycle used to get to work, the store, not transportation in general, which I view as a different, though not unrelated, problem. Moving freight, airplanes and battleships requires different solutions (in my opinion) then the problem of getting your kids to the hockey game.

I think we agree that the transition from oil is an important issue. You seem to believe that better batteries (and electric engines) will solve every facet of every issue facing the end of oil, and that this will result in little or no social or political change or turmoil. While I deeply wish that the next century comes to be shaped after your expectations, I do not believe it will be so. I do not believe that batteries alone will solve the coming crisis. Even if energy storage technology was to rapidly become what we would need it to be, where would the energy come from if the source for more then half of our current use was to vanish? Replacing that energy by renewable means will require a huge amount of investment and several decades to implement.

What I see coming, is a myriad of interwoven problems of which the central spine is energy use. All of them are have energy use at the at the root of their problem. This is because oil has done more then just let people drive their cars around cheaply. Cities are no longer shaped after people's needs, but to suit the demands of the automobile. There has been a great deal of optimism in investing in electric cars to allow people to continue to access modern cities as they have been constructed.

"When people say that they want to go to the electric car, I love it! But remember, they say 'car' not 'truck.' A battery won't move an 18 wheeler. The only thing that will move an 18 wheeler is foreign oil, diesel and gasoline, and our domestic natural gas." -T. Boone Pickens (on The Daily Show)

However continuing to access these cities will get more difficult when costs of energy begin to come down from the bubble of cheapness that I and most of the people I know have grown up in.

"Consequently these (cities) will be places that nobody wants to be in. These will be places that are not worth caring about. We have about 38,000 places that are not worth caring about in the united states today, when we have enough of them we will have a nation that is not worth defending. -James Howard Kunstler on "The greatest misallocation of resources in the history of the world."

Even if cities are reshaped for the new economy of energy, there is debate on what that will be. Some people believe that there will be a magic-pill cure, like super batteries that will allow life to continue as normal. This will not be the case.

"The central delusion that we're seeing right now is the idea that we can magically come up with a rescue remedy to continue running the interstate highway system and all the other accessories and furnishings of the happy motoring system. I happen to think that we're going to be very disappointed about that. In fact there are a lot of intelligent thigns we can do, but one of the least intelligent things we can expect is that we can continue happy motoring. You can demonstrate that you can run cars on hydrogen, cow shit and fried potato oil, but can run 230 million cars and trucks on it? Forget about it.

And then you get into political questions, like if driving becomes something only for the elite. Right now 4% of americans can't drive for one reason or another. What happens when that number becomes 13% or 27% of the people do you think that's going to be politically okay? It would create huge resentments and grievances against the people who can still do it." - James Howard Kunstler

But when I said that personal transportation is not the biggest issue, I meant it. People will be less concerned with their car or the "happy motoring system" if they are hungry.

"Food prices are rising and they're about to soar. There have been a lot of rising grain prices that have not been passed on to the consumer, they're about to be. High food prices always create political peril, as we've known since the French revolution at least.

The era of cheap food is over in this country, just as the era of cheap oil is over as well. (...) The old fix, ramping up production is not going to work this time, because cheap food depends on cheap energy, something we can no longer count on. Without reforming the American food system, it will be impossible to make progress on the issues of energy independence, climate change and the health care crisis because the way we feed ourselves is that the heart of all those three problems.

Let me explain. The food system, uses more fossil fuel and contributes more greenhouse gas to the atmosphere then any other industry. Between 17 and 34 percent. Meat production alone is 18 percent." -Michael Pollan, on The End of Cheap Food.

So when faced with the choice between fuel for their cars and fuel for their bodies, some will choose to fuel the car, leaving others to go hungry. And when people are hungry, they turn to first to the government for solutions. Governments know that they will need to bring resources to appease a population and avoid that political peril they have known about since the French Revolution. Remember that wars are always about resources.

"How curious, that the First World War is never taught in our schools as an invasion of Iraq. (...A reaction to) the Berlin-Bagdad railway, which commenced construction in the years leading up to the first world war," with the goal of bringing oil from Iraq to Germany. (-Robert Newman, A History of Oil)

"Oil is what drives the military machine of every country. It provides the fuel for aircraft, the ships the tanks for the trucks. The control of oil is indespensible. When you run out if your army stops." -Chalmers Johnson, Why we fight.

Oil is more then just a transportation issue. Riding the bus won't help much. The bus runs on gasoline, just like your car.

Joseph Heller, "Catch-22"

most things by Vonnegut (esp. Breakfast of Champions, Slaughterhouse-5, and Deadeye Dick)

Cormac McCarthy, "The Road"

Ronald J. Glasser, "365 Days"

Richard Bach, "Stranger to the Ground" (and many others)

Honourable mentions: William Gibson, "Neuromancer" -- Murray Peden, "A Thousand Shall Fall" (w/ Google Books preview) -- Tim O'Brien, "The Things They Carried" -- John Irving, "A Prayer For Owen Meany" -- George Orwell, "1984" -- , Nick Hornby, "High Fidelity" / "About A Boy" -- Roald Dahl, "Skin" / "Over To You" / many others -- Paul Theroux, "The Mosquito Coast" / "Half Moon Street" -- James Howard Kunstler, "The Long Emergency" (preview) -- Vladimir Nabokov, "Lolita" -- many by Bill Bryson -- J.D. Salinger, "The Catcher In The Rye" -- Andy McNab, "Bravo Two Zero" -- Jonathan Safran Foer, "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close" -- Alice Sebold, "The Lovely Bones" -- Miriam Toews, "A Complicated Kindness" -- Antoine de St-Exupery, "Wind, Sand, and Stars" -- LGen Roméo Dallaire, "Shake Hands With The Devil" -- Ernest K. Gann, "Fate Is The Hunter" -- (and to be continued most likely)

Also check out this interview featuring Kunstler:
http://www.videosift.com/video/James-Howard-Kunstler-interviewed-by-Futurist-com

James Howard Kunstler has an excellent audio series on suburbia and the impacts of the current energy crisis on American civilization at http://kunstlercast.com/

Troo dat, my dear lighthouse, but there's even more Kunstler at kunstler.com (updated Mondays and other days too). Damn good.

*beg