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eric3579 (Member Profile)

radx says...

It's all up to Francois Hollande now. Matteo Renzi is reasonably angry at how Germany is handling this shit, and France + Italy might just be enough to rein in the hardliners in Germany/Finland. If Hollande doesn't go into open opposition against Schäuble et al tonight, Grexit becomes inevitable.

Luckily though, my neighbours found some fitting stone plates at an abandoned(?) house to finally finish a spot in their backyard. I'll be over there the rest of the afternoon, pounding those plates into place with a rubber mallet.

Edit: Also, fuck the social democrats for turning on the people again.

oritteropo (Member Profile)

radx says...

Well, Syriza is an acronym for Coalition of the Radical Left (roughly), and everything left of the Berlin Consensus is considered to be radical left. So they are going to call Syriza a radical leftist party until the political landscape itelf has been pulled back towards more leftist positions. But you're right, if they were judged by their positions, they'd be centre-left in theory, if centre-left hadn't turned into corporatism by taking up the Third Way of Schröder/Blair/Clinton.

They are, without a doubt, radically democratic though. As your Grauniad article points out, they haven't turned on their election promises yet, which is quite unheard of for a major European party. Francois Hollande in particular was a major letdown in this regard. Few people expected him to bow down to German demands so quickly. Aside from his 75% special tax for the rich, he dropped just about every single part of his program that could be considered socialism.

Grexit... that's a tough one.

Syriza cannot enforce any troika demands that relate to the programmes of the Chicago School of Economics. Friedman ain't welcome anymore. No cuts to wages or pensions, to privatisation of infrastructure, no cuts to the healthcare system, nor any other form of financial oppression of the lower class. That is non-negotiable. In fact, even increases in welfare programs and the healthcare system are pretty much non-negotiable. Even if Syriza wanted to put any of this on the table, and they sure as hell don't, they couldn't make it part of any deal without further damages to an already devasted democratic system in Greece.

So with that in mind, what's the point of all the negotiations?

Varoufakis' suggestions are very reasonable. The growth-linked bonds, for instance, are used very successfully all over the world in debt negotiations, as just about any bankrupty expert would testify. Like Krugman wrote today, Syriza is merely asking to "recognize the reality everyone supposedly already understands". His caveat about the German electorate is on point as well, we haven't had it explained to us yet – and we chose to ignore what little was explained to us.

Yet the troika insists on something Syriza cannot and will not provide, as just outlined above. Some of the officials still expect Syriza to acknowledge reality, to come to their senses and to accept a deal provided to them. Good luck with that, but don't hold your breath. Similarly, Varoufakis is aware that Berlin is almost guaranteed to play hardball all the way.

Of course, nothing is certain and they might strike a deal during their meeting in Wednesday that offers Greece a way out of misery. Or maybe the ECB decides that to stabilize to Euro, as is their sole purpose, they need to keep Greece within the EZ and away from default. That would allow them to back Greece, to provide them with financial support, at least until they present their program in June/July. Everything is possible. However, I see very little evidence in support of it.

Therefore Grexit might actually be just a question of who to blame it on. Syriza is not going to exit the EZ willy nilly, they need clear pressure from outside, so the record will unequivocally show that it wasn't them who made the call. No country can be thrown out, they have to leave of their own. Additionally, Merkel will not be the person to initiate the unravelling of the EU, as might be the consequence of a Grexit. That's leverage for Greece, the only leverage they have. But it has to be played right or else the blame will be put squarely on Greece, even more so than it already is.

-------
Edit #1: What cannot be overstated is the ability of the EZ to muddle through one crises after another, always on the brink of collapse, yet never actually collapsing. They are determined to hold this thing together, whatever the cost.
-------

Speaking of blame, Yves Smith linked a fantastic article the other day: Syriza and the French Indemnity of 1871-73.

The author makes a convincing case why the suppression of wages in Germany led to disaster in Spain, why it was not a choice on the part of Spain to engage in irresponsible borrowing and how it is a conflict between workers and the financial elite rather than nations. He also offers historical precedent, with Germany being the recipient of a massive cash influx, ending in a catastrophe similar to Spain's nowadays.

It strikes me as a very objective dissection of what happend, what's going on, and what needs to happen to get things back in shape. Then again, it agrees with many points I made on that BBC videos last week, so it's right within my bubble.

oritteropo said:

So Tsipras promises to sell half the government cars, and one of the three government jets, and that the politicians will set the example of frugal living. Despite these and other promises Greenspan, and almost everyone else, is predicting the Grexit.

I only found a single solitary article that was positive, and I'd be a lot happier if I thought he might be right - http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/08/greece-debt-deal-not-impossible

I found another quote that I liked, but unfortunately I can't find it again... it was something along the lines that as Syriza are promising a budget surplus it's time to stop calling them radical left: They're really centre left.

The only radical thing about them is their promise to end the kleptocracy and for the budget cuts to include themselves (in my experience this is extremely rare among any political party).

paul krugman- i wish i'd been wrong

Mikus_Aurelius says...

>> ^Crooksandliars:

Leading demands for a revised strategy, French Socialist Francois Hollande, a reader of Krugman, tops President Nicolas Sarkozy in the polls with the warning that putting debt-cutting over expansion is “bringing desperation to people.” Elsewhere, Greeks are turning to anti-austerity parties, recession-wracked Spain and Italy are relaxing deficit targets, the Dutch government is splintering and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is calling for a “growth compact.”
.


This attitude strikes me as totally bogus. We think the European voters are voting on macro-economic policy? They're throwing out governments because they're unhappy, and they're installing people who promise them higher spending because they like having the government that spends money on them. Italy and Spain aren't revising their deficit targets because of some new found economic enlightenment, they simply lack the willpower or competence to live within their means.

Maybe stimulative policies are better than austerity. I'm not an economist, so I don't know. What I do know is that voters and politicians haven't stopped being short-sighted.

If Star Wars was made in France

blsq_fr says...

that's not a child show,
it's a show from 1970's in France
the guy with the black hear is "Michel Drucker" a well know speaker in tv that presented singers.
the guys with the blond hear is "Claude Francois", the guy who singed "comme d'habitude" that has been translated in english as "my way"

but in that prensent case : shame on french


sorry for my poor english

Thriller - A Capella, using 64 vocal samples

Khalida sings Erik Satie, Gnossienne #1

legacy0100 says...

oh my god.......... what the fuck is up with today's french music?

I haven't seen any good modern French music in recent years.

Whatever happened to the good Chansons, Francois Hardy, Mireille Mathieu, even fucking classicals like Hector Berlioz and Bizet?

I acdtually tried to downvote a million times but hit upvote instead... ugh... that was seriously fucking disgusting.

French Kickboxing Legends of 1934.

Tired of Being A Knight-Slaying Ogre?

fissionchips says...

From BoingBoing: Mauvais Rôle ("Bad Role"), a short animated film about a computer game character who gets fed up with playing the same lame villain roles all the time -- and takes matters into his own (clawed) hands.

His quest leads him to new and increasingly more ridiculous casting calls, each one weirder than the last. And they lead him somewhere he never thought he'd end up...

Mauvais Rôle was produced by a team of students at ESRA Sup' Infograph, in France. Authors: Alan Barbier, Camille Campion, Dorian Février, Frédéric Fourier, Frédéric Lafay, Min Ma, Jean Francois Macé, Emmanuel Repérant, Jérémie Rosseau and Olivier Sicot.
http://www.mauvais-role.com/

Articulate childish argument

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