>> ^criticalthud:

ummm, from a propaganda standpoint, there are some corollaries for sure.
But, let's look at some geopolitics.
(1) In a world of diminishing resources, Iran is sitting on some of the largest oil reserves.
(2) Israel, on the other hand, is sitting on a piece of worthless desert called the holy land and depends on foreign oil imports and American Aid. That American aid is also highly dependent on the US continuing to essentially control the oil trade. Oil is traded in dollars, and it is that massive circulation that helps keep the American dollar afloat (each dollar is HIGHLY leveraged (ie: debt)).
(3) So who wants what? Religious crazies aside, from a geo-political standpoint Israel has very little to offer Iran, but control or influence over Iran's oil reserves has quite a bit to offer Israel.
Now...why would Iran want to have a nuclear energy program when it has vast oil reserves?
-- just like Venezuela, who is limiting the amount they produce, if they can use less of their oil now, in a world of diminishing energy resources, it means that in the future they wield more and more geo-political power. And energy is wealth. The more they control their own resources, the more they can control price points of resources, which is a large part of how the world powers have become world powers.


(1) True, but nevertheless it is only ~11% of the world's proven oil reserves:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_proven_oil_reserves

(2) Going from point 1, Iran hardly holds a control on the monopoly of oil. Furthermore all developed countries have an interest in ensuring steady supply to oil. If for example Iran were to close the Strait of Hormuz, they would attract opprobrium from far more than just Israel and the US.

Oil trade in US dollars is surely a big part of the contributor to the strong US dollar, but the currency is used as a global trade and reserve currencies for its pre-eminence as a global economy not as a result of oil.

Also, even if the US dollar value were to collapse (which is hardly something likely in the next decade), I would bet that aid to Israel would be one of the last things to go because of the religious ties, the power of AIPAC in the US as a lobbying group and the history between the two countries.

(3) I think there's little denying that Iran has a nuclear weapons program, and I agree that geopolitics and influence in the region is surely a reason they are seeking it. But considered simply from the standpoint of Iran's autocratic leaders that it's simply a deterrence to outside intervention from the US.

Right now it seems implausible especially under Obama that the US itself would launch an attack on Iran, but when GWB invaded Iraq and the US economy was in much better shape that was hardly a fantasy. Iran's leaders have a genuine reason to fear this and while in the short term they risk a pre-emptive attack from Israel, in the long term they benefit immeasurably from the kind of deterrence that NK now has. Keep in mind that Iran's nuclear program is hardly the machinations of right wing ideologues like Ahmadinejad. Mousavi, the de facto leader of the green movement supports nuclear development and was instrumental in the inception of the program as previous prime minister.

So I really think it's that and not a long term play for energy independence. Oil is going to be with us for many decades to come and if this wiki is correct, Iran has a 100 years of supply available. With the economy the way it is and our current dependence on dirty fuels, we're hardly going to jump on the green train any time soon.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves

@marbles

Thanks for sharing your sources with us, I have not followed details of Syria's events, but I can respond to the articles about Iran.

Re: US trains activists to evade security forces
Offering tools that circumvent government censorship firewalls, is not instigation. Iran's government has strict rules for ISPs to share information with the government, much like the warrantless wiretapping in US. If HTTPS circumvents the wiretapping, then is IETF instigating revolution in US?

Re: 'US trains Jundullah members'
Jundullah is a terrorist group, has nothing to do with peaceful protests and civil movements in Iran.

Re: 'has intelligence agents working in Iran'
Duh, of course and Iran has intelligence working in US. Is the Wisconsin labour movement instigated by Iran? http://www.presstv.com/detail/168937.html

Re: Kissinger threatens regime change in Iran if coup fails
Kissinger said that if the government is NOT democratic, then US would work for regime change. US is doing that right now with the global sanctions on Iran. You can't take his words and say that the millions that protested after the election were all tricked by US propaganda and spies!

Re: Proof: Israeli Effort to Destabilize Iran Via Twitter #IranElection
Online activities such as twitter and facebook are reports of what's going on, not the actual events. People went to the streets and protested, they were shot, killed and prisoned. You need to look at the number of people that risked their lives to measure their force and influence, not twittes!

Re: Iranian Unrest: Evidence Of Western Intelligence Meddling
"CIA/Mossad flooding Iranians with contradicting SMS messages"
I never hear of any broadcast SMS messages in support of the protestors. Government did send threatening SMS messages to discourage people from going to protests. People SMSed each other, but that way you know the person that SMSed you. If I get a SMS from a number I don't recognize, I would just ignore it, but if my friend tells me something, then I would listen!

This is exactly how it happen (eye witness report), after they announced that Ahmadinejad won the election, it was late in the evening, people were in disbelieve, they walked out of their houses and talked with neighbors, once they saw that all around them were Mousavi supporters and no one that was cheering Ahmadinejad's victory. If Ahmadinejad has majority support in their riding, as the polling stations had reported, then where are those supporters? After that evening people knew that they has cheated, from talking to neighbors face to face, and NOT from a twitter fed for god's sake. The west learned about it from twitter, not people inside Iran!

Re: Iran busts another CIA network
Iran's government labels any dissenters as US backed agents or drug dealers. Are the people working to free Bradley Manning agents of foreign governments? Now the hard liners in Iran are accusing Ahmadinejad of initiating negotiations with US and are calling for his impeachment. US is the boogyman used to justify any action that the regime wants to take. Like the "terrorist" threat in america, used to take away people's freedoms, its not REAL!

Re: Soros, the CIA, Mossad and the new media destabilization of Iran
This article is a rehash of the previous ones, no new points here.

Just because governments are spreading propaganda against each other, it doesn't mean that the civil movements inside those countries are made up of manipulated and instigated people!
US caught off-guard by Iran sanctions
Iran to sue US over human rights abuse

I didn't realize that condemning the government for using violence against peaceful protestors was the same thing as a vote to "kill Iranians" or invade, or anything else that could be construed as jingoistic.

Here's the full text of the resolution (which was also passed in the Senate by unanimous voice vote):

Expressing support for all Iranian citizens who embrace the values of freedom, human rights, civil liberties, and rule of law, and for other purposes.

Resolved, That the House of Representatives--

(1) expresses its support for all Iranian citizens who embrace the values of freedom, human rights, civil liberties, and rule of law;

(2) condemns the ongoing violence against demonstrators by the Government of Iran and pro-government militias, as well as the ongoing government suppression of independent electronic communication through interference with the Internet and cellphones; and

(3) affirms the universality of individual rights and the importance of democratic and fair elections.

I would have a hard time voting "Nay" on that myself. Only the second half of the second section is something I have not heard Obama himself say.

Mostly what sucked about the vote was how it was spun by Republicans on TV as being clear outreach to the supporters of Mousavi, which the bill was not.

^It didn't change, Andrew Sullivan (&gwiz) interpreted the sentence "The Presidency of the Council of the EU closely followed the course of the Presidential elections held on 12 June 2009 and notices Mr. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was re-elected" to mean they acknowledge his victory.

Mousavi is going to march in about half an hour. There have been rumors that the march was cancelled, but this was misinformation by the government. "#iranElection" on twitter and the "IRAN" group on facebook remain best sources of information. The mainstream media really dropped the ball on this one, and their headlines are a couple of hours or more behind, and not entirely reliable.