Maddow: Rick Perry's Economic Policy is Bunk

Rachel Maddow and Ezra Klein examine the economic policy message of Rick Perry.

8/16/2011
VoodooVsays...

Further evidence that Republicans can't be called Republicans anymore, they MUST be called Anti-Democrats

They are against _anything_ the Democrats are for...even things that are traditionally conservative concepts.

NetRunnersays...

>> ^Morganth:

The actual numbers on Texas' jobs: http://www.politicalmathblog.com/?p=1590


Thank you for a textbook example of how to lie repeatedly with statistics.

For brevity's sake, just look at the first four graphs. Note that the Y-axis in the first is the raw, numeric number of jobs in Texas. Then look at graph number four showing population growth.

Chart 4 invalidates entirely the point Chart 1 is trying to make, but the surrounding text pretends it amplifies it.

More here: http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2011/08/17/297556/report-texas-ranks-dead-last-in-total-job-creation-accounting-for-labor-force-growth/

Mikus_Aureliussays...

I want Rick Perry nowhere near the executive branch of the United States. That said, the politicalmathblog post comes across as fairly even handed. The point of the first 4 graphs is to explain how a state can grow a bunch of jobs but still have a high unemployment rate. His supposition that Texas is the victim of it's own success is the only controversial statement in that section, and he clearly labels it as his own opinion.

Meanwhile your think progress article seems completely irrelevant. Since it doesn't normalize for population size, their graph is naturally going to have longer bars for larger states, so calling someone the "worst" is basically just saying, "its bar goes in the wrong direction and it's a big state." But do the directions of these bars even mean anything? Look at the "best" state on the list. It's Michigan. Is Michigan's economy doing well lately? This makes me believe that this measurement has little to do with the actual economic health of a state.

Maybe some smarty pants economist can come explain why I should care about that chart, but for now I don't, and I don't think you should either.

>> ^NetRunner:

>> ^Morganth:
The actual numbers on Texas' jobs: http://www.politicalmathblog.com/?p=1590

Thank you for a textbook example of how to lie repeatedly with statistics.
For brevity's sake, just look at the first four graphs. Note that the Y-axis in the first is the raw, numeric number of jobs in Texas. Then look at graph number four showing population growth.
Chart 4 invalidates entirely the point Chart 1 is trying to make, but the surrounding text pretends it amplifies it.
More here: http:/
/thinkprogress.org/economy/2011/08/17/297556/report-texas-ranks-dead-last-in-total-job-creation-accounting-for-labor-force-growth/


NetRunnersays...

>> ^Mikus_Aurelius:

[T]he politicalmathblog post comes across as fairly even handed. The point of the first 4 graphs is to explain how a state can grow a bunch of jobs but still have a high unemployment rate.


Read what he's saying about the charts. Each chart is meant to say "Rick Perry's job creation in Texas is awesome!" Chart 1 is raw jobs, unadjusted for population growth, even according to him. Rather than saying "hmm, I wonder if that actually means the jobs situation has improved when you look at population," instead he says:

In a "normal" employment data set, we can easily look at it and say "Yep, that's where the recession happened. Sucks to be us." But not with Texas. With Texas, we say "Damn. Looks like they've recovered already."

Liar!

Chart 3 is a similarly unadjusted factor, though at least he puts it as % of raw jobs grown, so it's not as distorted.

Chart 4 finally reveals what's going on -- Texas's population is growing way faster than it's creating jobs. Aha! That's why the unemployment rate has just been going up!

Moreover, it means the jobs market in Texas is really getting worse, because while there have been jobs created, the number of people looking for a job per job opening has actually increased. Does he summarize it that way? Nope, not remotely.

Instead he summarizes that finding by saying:

People are flocking to Texas in massive numbers. This is speculative, but it *seems* that people are moving to Texas looking for jobs rather than moving to Texas for a job they already have lined up. This would explain why Texas is adding jobs faster than any other state but still has a relatively high unemployment rate.

Liar, liar, pants on fire!

>> ^Mikus_Aurelius:
His supposition that Texas is the victim of it's own success is the only controversial statement in that section, and he clearly labels it as his own opinion.


It's not the only controversial statement, but it's the most blatant falsehood of the whole article. Yes, he makes it clear that it's his theory, but he's presenting his theory while summarizing the data that invalidates his theory!

>> ^Mikus_Aurelius:
Meanwhile your think progress article seems completely irrelevant. Since it doesn't normalize for population size, their graph is naturally going to have longer bars for larger states, so calling someone the "worst" is basically just saying, "its bar goes in the wrong direction and it's a big state."


The politicalmathblog didn't either, and you're not rejecting it out of hand. Everyone who cites some statistic in pursuit of calling Texas's job record a "miracle" has to ignore the size of Texas's population, and it's population growth rate.

If you account for those factors, it looks like a below-average jobs record, and we can't have that.

>> ^Mikus_Aurelius:

But do the directions of these bars even mean anything? Look at the "best" state on the list. It's Michigan. Is Michigan's economy doing well lately?


The bar isn't meant to show goodness or badness, but the rate & direction of change. Michigan was in bad shape, but it's improving quickly.
Here's
the unemployment rates of Texas vs. Michigan.

Texas was at 4.5% before, rose to about 8% and then never really got better. Michigan started at 7%, rose to 14%, and then rapidly went down to 10%. Both are unfortunately taking turns for the worse as the economy weakens again.

What's that mean? Hard to say in isolation, but someone could easily make a bunch of charts to support the idea of a "Michigan miracle", and spin a story about how it was Obama's rescue of the auto industry that's responsible, and that Texas has stagnated at its peak because it refuses to engage in fiscal stimulus.

You know, sorta like politicalmathblog did for Texas...

>> ^Mikus_Aurelius:
This makes me believe that this measurement has little to do with the actual economic health of a state.
Maybe some smarty pants economist can come explain why I should care about that chart, but for now I don't, and I don't think you should either.


If you want a smartypants economist saying the same thing I am, I'll point you to the link included in the thinkprogress article with Paul Krugman giving his analysis of the Texas job situation.

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