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NDT Explains Why 2023 Climate Models Failed

bcglorf says...

Media(and even some of the vocal scientists trying to urge action) have been guilty of overstating confidence in climate modelling. Which is more or less what they are agreeing on in the video.

The IPCC summary of state of the art climate modelling, and virtually ALL published papers on various climate models agree that the unknown and poorly modelled aspects of our climate are larger than the known influence of CO2.

That is to say, the physical modelling largely operates on energy in and out from the Sun and then playing out how changes in that energy balance operate. The thing is, that energy budget is enormous, and the number of factors at play are even larger and dynamic to make it more fun. The influence of CO2 in the energy budget is one of the relatively straightforward elements, and so we've got a pretty good and confident assessment of how much it impacts energy balance. The problem with climate modelling, is that the CO2 impact is smaller than the errors and unknowns in many other factors in the model including clouds.

Which is all saying that our climate modelling is hard, and even though we know CO2 changes are pushing the energy balance up, our modelling of the energy balance is still not good enough to accurately predict energy balance changes. That means we've got a giant 'all other things being equal' qualifier on model projections because if cloud behaviour changes based on temperature, we KNOW that our errors there are larger than the influence of CO2.

Modellers have been trying to draw attention to this nuance, but it's been deemed inconvenient to persuading the public to act and thus ignored by many pushing for action. The almost inevitable side effect though is that over time the reality of the models inaccuracy will play out and the public is gonna be asking why 'science' was wrong.

bobknight33 (Member Profile)

newtboy says...

Hilarious fight between Hannity and Doucey because Hannity wants to spread Trump’s lies, this one about how Trump really won by a huge margin not realized because Democrats in New Hampshire have taken over the Republican primary, first claiming Democrats could just vote in the Republican primary, a lie he got direct from Trump, not true, then after Doucey told the truth about that and Trump had a weekend tirade about being corrected he came up with the lie that they could just switch parties then go vote in the Republican primary on the same day, another lie the cut off date for switching parties was early October. Doucey corrected that lie too, at which point Hannity got pissed and accused him of being a leftist…because honesty and facts are only for leftists while pure made up lies are all that the right peddles, I don’t think he meant to be making that point so clearly and publicly but he did, and it’s accurate, the only accurate thing he’s said lately.
MAGA is nothing but lies and whining now, a failing cult whose prophet is a child molesting rapist tax cheat that fomented a coup to stay in power, stole and sold highly classified top secret military documents, sold a list of our own allied countries spies to Saudi Arabia for $2 billion (and they executed many), and presided over what he made the worst year in American history by almost every measure, 2020.

On Monday Trump said Biden will destroy America IF HE EVER GETS INTO OFFICE.

Enjoy your cult of lies led by a dementia ridden criminal. He’s falling apart exactly like his father who had Alzheimer’s which runs in families (a condition Trump repeatedly took advantage of in his fathers dying years to forgive himself of tens of millions in debts to Fred’s estate and tried to rewrite his dad’s will to cut out everyone else but was caught…and you want a similarly easily tricked dottering fool in the highest office).
And a Florida Senator (Garcia) and the CFO of Florida have decided it’s wrong to take any tax payer money to buy poor children or elderly people lunch or health care (she chairs the children family and elders affairs committee), but they should take $5 million of taxpayer money to hand it to Trump to help him with his criminal attorney fees….yes, they’re trying to give alleged billionaire Trump a taxpayer bailout for his criminal charges despite having massive poverty and lack of services in the state and an over $130 billion in debt. MAGA priorities on full display.

bobknight33 (Member Profile)

newtboy says...

In case you’re wondering why Trump is doing so poorly outside the cult…I mean party….


The clear plan to make abortion 100% federally banned nationwide with no exceptions including incestuous child rape or risking the life of the mother the minute they gain control despite spending decades insisting it’s a state’s rights issue is the biggest driving force for voters this cycle. 😂Thank Trump, his big “win” has been a major loss for your party repeatedly and consistently, and has lost at the state level every time it hit the ballot.

WEF speaker shakes the establishment

newtboy says...

Trump is a wannabe elite trying to buy his way into elite society but he’s not one of them. He’s poorly bred, crass, rude, oafish, witless, loudly vacuous, and boorish….in short he is Al Czervik (Rodney Dangerfield in Caddyshack) without the business acumen.

Trump and all Republicans proved the exact opposite of what this guy said…when in control they worked hard for the elites and against the interests of the middle and lower class. They forgave PPP loans to millionaire business owners then claimed it’s impossible and unAmerican to do the same for student debt for the poor.

The fact that much of this is quick cuts spliced together mean even he doesn’t believe what this video presents as his statements. 😂

Trump Supporter CHANGES MIND on Biden in 60sec

newtboy says...

As usual, you have it all 100% backwards. Not surprising since you are a Russian propagandist.
Russia secretly invaded Ukraine in 2014 as pure expansionism, when they finally admitted the invasion their excuse was Russians in Crimea were being poorly treated and a fear extremists would take over Russian military bases, having absolutely nothing to do with NATO.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation#:~:text=Russia%20eventually%20admitted%20its%20troops,Russian%20military%
20infrastructure%20by%20extremists%22.

NATO is now “creeping into buffer countries” because Russia started and continues an expansionist policy and threatens its neighbors. Russian expansionism started first. There have been 3 rounds of NATO expansion since Russia started retaking now sovereign lost satellite territories in 2014.
There was never an agreement that NATO wouldn’t accept new members, just as there’s nothing stopping Russia from making allies.
Ukraine was going to be an EU country until Russia’s installed “president” ignored the people and chose Russia over Ukraine and was deposed and expelled so Ukrainians could democratically choose their own leadership which they did. Then Russia invaded.
There was absolutely no chance of them joining NATO until after the invasion, now it’s a near certainty.

Democracy in Europe IS our business. We will be fighting this war at some time, either now while Russia is weak and poor through a proxy or later when we are in a much weaker position fighting them with American soldiers directly…much better to choose now for less money and zero Americans, I know you would prefer to just let Putin re-annex the Balkan states and expand as far as he chooses, returning to socialist communism under his tyrannical leadership, but the free world would prefer to stay free.

And again, it is our business as I clearly explained to you repeatedly because we signed, and actually directed the trilateral disarmament agreement in 92 when we agreed to secure their borders against any incursion and they gave up nuclear weapons the collapsing soviets couldn’t afford to secure themselves. You would make any future agreements, and any current treaties moot and impossible to guarantee because our guarantee is worse than worthless. So shortsighted and not smart. It’s important to keep your word internationally, I know as a MAGgot that doesn’t make sense, just like telling the truth even if it hurts you doesn’t make sense to you…honesty and honor are foreign concepts to your ilk.
It would be nice if you could remember being so wrong so I didn’t have to correct you over and over and over on the exact same topic…but you can’t admit you are wrong so you will forget you were proven wrong, again, and spout the same ignorance, again, forever. So sad and mentally defective….it’s a main feature of MAGA, severe brain damage.

Walk away MAGA policies would hand the world to China, Russia, and N Korea without a word of complaint, then confusion over where our allies are when they come for us.
Ukraine is a war Russia started, one that’s being won by Ukraine with help, and one that has crippled Russia for decades to come WAY cheaper than any American policy could have. Give Joe credit, fine, Joe bankrupted Russia and destroyed their military…I don’t give him that credit, you do.

No, leftists said he would bring us into ruin, and that if he followed trough with his stated intentions he would bring us into war…but he never follows through and caved to China and Russia instead of standing strong for American ideals, interests, and Western democracy. He nearly did start a war by assassinating Iranian government officials and Syrians. I remember when you said ISIS was a nothing burger and not worth paying attention to, right before they took near half of Iraq and Syria, started attacking Americans, and we went to war with them in 2017…who was president then?
We were still at war in Afghanistan when he left office, he had just surrendered unconditionally to the Taliban and Al Qaeda under an agreement they broke repeatedly, but we were still there until Biden (poorly) facilitated the retreat Trump negotiated. Trump/MAGA didn’t avoid or end wars. Nice try at revisionism.

The policy bringing the US near war today is our Israel policy that is the same unthinking blind support for Israel from both parties, same from both presidential candidates. We are in direct military actions endangering American soldiers daily because of THAT conflict, not because of Ukraine. The unbridled ignorance is disappointing even from you. 🤦‍♂️

Ending wars by capitulating like Trump did with Crimea and surrendering unconditionally like Trump did in Afghanistan is not “winning”, it’s losing without even trying and hands the world to dictators.

bobknight33 said:

The kid is asking the wrong question.

The question is Why is Russia invading Ukraine.

The answer is NATO creeping into buffer countries that was agreed on after the fall of Russia.

NATO has not stopped expanding since the fall of the Soviet Union, growing from 17 countries in 1990 to 30 today, several of which were once part of the Soviet-led Warsaw pact.


Finally Ukraine is not a NATO country----------- This is none of our business.


Biden failed Policies have done nothing but keeping pushing for war --

Ukraine is a lost war.

FJB

You leftest said if Trump was POTUS - He would bring us into war--- Never happened.
MEGA 2024 to end wars.

God Made A Dictator

bobknight33 says...

Being a Biden supporter is poor judgement.


cloudballoon said:

...convince the "poor"? More like the delusional, gullible, idiotic, hateful, lawless, hypocrite, unpatriotic and snowflakes, easily manipulated simpletons. Only thing the MAGA crowds are poor in are characters, honesty & integrity.

God Made A Dictator

cloudballoon says...

...convince the "poor"? More like the delusional, gullible, idiotic, hateful, lawless, hypocrite, unpatriotic and snowflakes, easily manipulated simpletons. Only thing the MAGA crowds are poor in are characters, honesty & integrity.

Eminem Responds To Rudy Giuliani

newtboy says...

Shameless self *promote in celebration of the $148 MILLION judgement Ruby Freeman and Shay Moss were just awarded by a jury for Rudy’s dangerous lies about them. Half the award, $75 million is punitive damages which he can’t escape with a bankruptcy!
Bye you cousin fucking loser! Enjoy dying in the poor house in disgrace.

bobknight33 (Member Profile)

newtboy says...

You’re really deepthroating Elon’s Nazi loving cock lately.
You claimed you sold all your “all in on one” stock before the crash (you said that after the crash to pretend you didn’t lose your shirt, not before or during)…it’s pretty obvious that was another lie or you wouldn’t be such a fan boy still pushing everything Tesla.

Wait for actual customer reviews of the cybertruck, not Tesla propaganda. They never come close to their own hype. Customers of their cars complain about build quality constantly…that’s going to be a killer in a pickup that needs great construction to take the abuse a pickup is designed to take…especially at over $100k.

This truck is years behind promised delivery, with 2/3 the towing capacity, less range, and double the price promised. No bullet proof windows (what a failure that was), and there are MULTIPLE better options available. This idiotic looking truck won’t sell 1/2 what Ford does of the lightning, which costs 1/2 the price and looks great, not like an origami project.
Also, Fords aren’t publicly tied to Naziism, fascism, or extremist far right lies like Elon is…and electric vehicles are clearly marketed towards people who believe in issues like climate science, so liberals. Liberals are less likely to buy a car from a company who constantly and nastily uses their money to advance politics they abhor, which explains the poor Tesla sales since Elon came out as a far right extremist, racist, abusive boss with a 4 year old’s temperament.
Driving a Tesla today is literally funding racist fascism, and the customer base doesn’t support fascism, and you fascists don’t buy EVs.

Ohhhh….Trump was just caught illicitly moving $40 million out of his NY businesses for personal use without reporting it to the court appointed monitor he has been ordered to report any transfers to. Expect a huge fine or remand. 😂

The Face on the Moon - Neil deGrasse Tyson

bobknight33 (Member Profile)

newtboy says...

And now we have multiple top administration officials and lawyers like Meadows, Scovino, and Ellis admitting under oath that in December Trump was saying he didn’t care that he lost, and didn’t care what the courts said, he was not going to leave the White House under any circumstances, he was just going to stay in power….as if we didn’t already know.
Because I’m sure you don’t understand, that is criminal intent, direct evidence of election fraud and multiple attempted coups, and 100% undermines any attempt to pretend he thought he won or was doing what he believed was right for him to do as president….in fact now only he can make that claim himself by testifying under oath in open court…and please oh please let his lawyers be that stupid. Er mer gerd, please be that stupid.

Enjoy being firmly on the traitors team. Don’t be surprised to wake up to find a big “T” branded on your forehead some day, Americans don’t like traitors.

Bonus-Lol…today fraud and coward Senator Mullin “accepted” the challenge to physically fight a union leader in the senate chambers knowing that the capitol police were there to protect him and not allow a fight, once again displaying MAGA’s complete lack of respect for America and your total cowardice.
If he wanted to actually accept the challenge, he would have done so either in a place where a fight could happen, or publicly and arrange a sanctioned ring fight, but he instead hid behind his security and only when safe pretended to accept.
If he actually wanted to fight then and there Bernie Sanders would not have immediately stopped him using just words.
Even better, after the union leader accepted the challenge then and there and the senator sat back down at Sanders’s order, he tried to pretend the union leader had gone silent and hid from the fight, a pure fabrication of events that just happened in public view and that we have recorded.
He never intended, nor does he intend to accept the invitation to a fist fight, this was pure false bravado staged for a photo op in congress…that tank of a union leader would have flattened him out thin enough for even you to see through him. 😂
If he’s really a tough guy, let him accept a sanctioned cage match like the guy suggested. MAGgot coward wouldn’t show up because he’s a kindergarten child, not a man.
such infants you crybabies are.

Second bonus- Speaker Johnson is already on the ropes, incapable of putting together a budget plan even his party will vote for (definitely not one that will pass the senate), is angering the same extremist MAGgots that tossed McCarthy and got him the position, and has SERIOUS financial disclosure issues like hiding his wife’s income and assets for his entire 7 year tenure, and pretending that he’s a man of minor means, so poor on only $205k (+ his wife’s income, and her unreported undisclosed LLC’s income, and the millions in freebies he doesn’t report) a year that he doesn’t have any bank accounts, and failed to disclose multiple gifts from multiple sources of at least $20k despite being required to report anything valued over $400. He’s not going to survive the year in office.
Meanwhile Greene and Gaetz are holding sham meetings of (in their own words) “shadow congress” to spout covid and vaccine misinformation, conspiracy theories, and outright lies on taxpayer dollars instead of doing the work of congress.
His criminal failures mean another Republican shutdown just in time to ruin Thanksgiving and Xmas, expected to be the busiest travel season ever while not paying tsa or traffic controllers will be an unmitigated disaster…you think people won’t remember who did that again?

Third bonus- Kevin McCarthy is now accused of battery of another Republican congressman while he was being interviewed in the Senate hallway, confirmed by the reporter. When Burchett chased him down he hid behind security and denied it, then ran away like a MAGA coward.
Gaetz has filed a formal ethics complaint.
MAGA and the Republican Party are falling apart at the seams, so flustered at constantly losing and looking moronic and anti patriotic that they are physically fighting each other and civilians in congress…and it’s delicious. 😂 Kindergartners have better self control, and it’s on full display constantly.

Enjoy political oblivion. White racist bigots are many and loud, but there’s not enough of you to elect anyone, and everyone else in your party has left.

Palestinian UN Ambassador At UN

bcglorf says...

"Who the fuck cares what the reason they wanted to invadeflee was?"

Characterization matters a little here, no?

"They had a right to refugee status there, not to take control and possession by force"

Which is at the heart of things.

The Arab narrative is that Jews arrived guns loaded and set about pillaging, killing and invading as soon as they had sufficient numbers, while the poor domestic Arab population had only been trying to assist and welcome in the refugees...

Which is ahistorical propaganda.

The reality is that for the most part, the European Jews arriving in Palestine were refugees and acting like refugees. Meaning they mostly just wanted to be able to provide food, shelter and safety for the families, just like everyone else. Most of them tried to set about doing this by legally purchasing land.

Lots of the local Arabs similarly were content to get along.

At that same time though, there were hardcore Zionists among the Jewish arrivals AND there were xenophobic elements willing to use violence within the Arab population too.

The tensions rose as the populations rose, but largely as a result of a large people being displaced, and NOT as the planned invasion you describe. The local Arab population started to band together to refuse to work, trade or sell to Jews. Violence broke out instigated separately on smallish scales by BOTH sides. Escalating violence followed, again back and forth between sides.

I'm in a camp that has a hard time blaming either the domestic Arab population for distress at the huge influx of refugees, nor for the European Jewish people having a low tolerance for discrimination and violence directed there way solely for being Jewish.

I see it as a huge mess, but with two large populations of Jewish and Arab people in Palestine acting not terribly unreasonably under circumstances of extreme pressure.

I think it's lazy and convenient to just declare 'invasion' so that you can simplify it all down to right/wrong and good guy/bad guy....

He runs to save his mother

cloudballoon says...

Or mom's just taking the opportunity to teach the kid how to swing.

In all seriousness though, my mom broke her ankle last year just falling backward while gardening. Bad angle and poor bone density worsened the fall. So even a feet or two could cause major damage.

jimnms said:

She would have been fine if she let go from the hanging position, as long as she didn't do something stupid like lock her knees straight. Based on the height her feet were at when she got back on the ladder, and assuming a standard ladder's maximum rung spacing, she was about 4.5ft from the ground.

Hunter Biden makes Millions from China and Ukraine

newtboy says...

No, dumbshit. More nonsensical bullshit and lies. Trump was not right, not with this baseless accusation or any other. He was making an admission that HE takes bribes from China.

Hunter made money through a private investment company portfolio he invested in/earned after his father left office that included Chinese government owned companies, so he technically made money from China (uncaptured capital gains not distributed yet btw)…just like Trump did except Hunter reported it to the IRS while Trump hid it in secret bank accounts in China, preferring to pay taxes to China and defraud the USA. He wasn’t paid bribes by the Chinese government like Trump alleged and Joe denied…BUT TRUMP AND HIS FAMILY WERE.
And yes, Hunter was paid for his work in Ukraine. Shocker!

This is just another attempt to play on people’s poor memories and dishonestly edit clips to confuse the issue and lie by obfuscating and misrepresenting, bob.

You are never anywhere near honest. Every single thing you post or say is an outright lie. What a waste of skin you are.

Child dragged by school bus in Kentucky

Hef says...

Also a lot of rehab and permanent nerve damage for the poor girl. She will never be the same again. Not sure that's worth the 5 mil...

BSR said:

If the bus driver had to slam on the brakes the guy standing in the aisle would probably go through windshield. To hell with seatbelts!

Also, Family of girl dragged by JCPS school bus gets nearly $5M in settlement. Bazinga!



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