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NDT Explains Why 2023 Climate Models Failed

bcglorf says...

Media(and even some of the vocal scientists trying to urge action) have been guilty of overstating confidence in climate modelling. Which is more or less what they are agreeing on in the video.

The IPCC summary of state of the art climate modelling, and virtually ALL published papers on various climate models agree that the unknown and poorly modelled aspects of our climate are larger than the known influence of CO2.

That is to say, the physical modelling largely operates on energy in and out from the Sun and then playing out how changes in that energy balance operate. The thing is, that energy budget is enormous, and the number of factors at play are even larger and dynamic to make it more fun. The influence of CO2 in the energy budget is one of the relatively straightforward elements, and so we've got a pretty good and confident assessment of how much it impacts energy balance. The problem with climate modelling, is that the CO2 impact is smaller than the errors and unknowns in many other factors in the model including clouds.

Which is all saying that our climate modelling is hard, and even though we know CO2 changes are pushing the energy balance up, our modelling of the energy balance is still not good enough to accurately predict energy balance changes. That means we've got a giant 'all other things being equal' qualifier on model projections because if cloud behaviour changes based on temperature, we KNOW that our errors there are larger than the influence of CO2.

Modellers have been trying to draw attention to this nuance, but it's been deemed inconvenient to persuading the public to act and thus ignored by many pushing for action. The almost inevitable side effect though is that over time the reality of the models inaccuracy will play out and the public is gonna be asking why 'science' was wrong.

TX VS POTUS

newtboy says...

Sad that an entire party can’t read or is willing to discard the constitution at the first inconvenience.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supremacy_Clause

This is an armed rebellion, make no mistakes. Similar to the actions that ignited the civil war, states trying to exert authority over the federal government in direct contradiction to the constitution. Don’t be surprised if Texas guard members attack a federal fort next.

bobknight33 (Member Profile)

newtboy says...

😂 THE JURY IS ALREADY BACK IN! 😂
$83,300,000.00 MORE for Carrol…on top of the $5 million in escrow now awaiting his first appeal. LOSER!

Trump has to pay before he can appeal…you think he has it?

She could legitimately already have another case for what he’s said about her publicly during trial, let’s see if this is enough to shut him up. I doubt it, so get ready for more.

Being a douche bag rapist sure is expensive!

Edit: As a bonus, the financial monitor in his business fraud case has made her report, saying even under court monitoring his financial statements are either/or completely missing, incomplete, repeat with errors, and/or contradictory. Estimates for the judgement are topping $500,000,000.00, and complete divestment from his businesses/properties in New York. He doesn’t have it. Better make more donations.

bobknight33 (Member Profile)

newtboy says...

Uh oh….the Matt Gaetz child sex trafficking, drugging, and raping investigations have ramped up, requesting the sealed DOJ records from the Bill Bar investigation that ended without explanation despite his cohort being prosecuted.
Enjoy his sexual history being publicized and used to show what child mollesters and protectors of known child molesters MAGA all are. No surprise since you are led by a serial rapist and well known incestuous pederast.

Trump’s last day in his rape trial was another disaster…showing up late, Habba arguing with the judge and being threatened with prison for contempt, trying and failing to introduce evidence in closing, Trump walking out during closing (all of which show disrespect to the jury and of the system). The best argument given in closing was that Carrol benifits by having her reputation destroyed and receiving multiple death and rape threats daily for years and should be thanking her rapist and abuser because she got a few followers online (so it’s a wash?)…I don’t think that went over well.
Trump was incredibly stupid to post that he will not stop defaming her ever while on trial for defaming her…of course that was shown to the jury right before they went to decide how much to find him to make him stop.
She has asked for $24 million in actual damages and severe punative damages, don’t be surprised if they’re 10x actual damages. Remember, Trump claims to be worth near 10 billion…so it wouldn’t be outrageous if they award a few billion, 50% of his claimed net worth. Fun fact, he will have to post a cash bond in that amount just to file an appeal ! 😂

Police Called To Stop Filming During Piano Livestream

newtboy says...

Newly released footage makes this entire episode even more confusing. Apparently at first the Chinese were more than happy to be filmed and even played and danced with him.
It begs the question, what happened between this and when the trouble starts?


Fire Department Interacts with Climber

Police Called To Stop Filming During Piano Livestream

newtboy says...

Interesting….he now says he’s discovered that the girl who told him “no film, no disclosure” is a popular Chinese blogger who has court cases pending for filming people against their will IN CHINA where it seems you do have the right to refuse to be filmed in public.
Makes me wonder if this was a stunt to show how backwards that is by creating an international incident pretending you think it’s normal and global and get her cases dropped.
He claims the CCP has labeled him a violent thug that attacked the young woman with the flag intent on hurting or killing her and produced edited videos to make him look nuts. Good thing he has the entire unedited video plastered across YouTube and other platforms….and years of videos of himself doing the exact same thing they got mad about but not causing any trouble.

bobknight33 (Member Profile)

newtboy says...

Hilarious fight between Hannity and Doucey because Hannity wants to spread Trump’s lies, this one about how Trump really won by a huge margin not realized because Democrats in New Hampshire have taken over the Republican primary, first claiming Democrats could just vote in the Republican primary, a lie he got direct from Trump, not true, then after Doucey told the truth about that and Trump had a weekend tirade about being corrected he came up with the lie that they could just switch parties then go vote in the Republican primary on the same day, another lie the cut off date for switching parties was early October. Doucey corrected that lie too, at which point Hannity got pissed and accused him of being a leftist…because honesty and facts are only for leftists while pure made up lies are all that the right peddles, I don’t think he meant to be making that point so clearly and publicly but he did, and it’s accurate, the only accurate thing he’s said lately.
MAGA is nothing but lies and whining now, a failing cult whose prophet is a child molesting rapist tax cheat that fomented a coup to stay in power, stole and sold highly classified top secret military documents, sold a list of our own allied countries spies to Saudi Arabia for $2 billion (and they executed many), and presided over what he made the worst year in American history by almost every measure, 2020.

On Monday Trump said Biden will destroy America IF HE EVER GETS INTO OFFICE.

Enjoy your cult of lies led by a dementia ridden criminal. He’s falling apart exactly like his father who had Alzheimer’s which runs in families (a condition Trump repeatedly took advantage of in his fathers dying years to forgive himself of tens of millions in debts to Fred’s estate and tried to rewrite his dad’s will to cut out everyone else but was caught…and you want a similarly easily tricked dottering fool in the highest office).
And a Florida Senator (Garcia) and the CFO of Florida have decided it’s wrong to take any tax payer money to buy poor children or elderly people lunch or health care (she chairs the children family and elders affairs committee), but they should take $5 million of taxpayer money to hand it to Trump to help him with his criminal attorney fees….yes, they’re trying to give alleged billionaire Trump a taxpayer bailout for his criminal charges despite having massive poverty and lack of services in the state and an over $130 billion in debt. MAGA priorities on full display.

Sam Harris describes his mushroom trip

Police Called To Stop Filming During Piano Livestream

newtboy says...

The escalation continues…the piano donated by Elton John for PUBLIC USE is now cordoned off with two guards stopping anyone from playing it.
Please, people, start splashing red paint on this mall until they stop capitulating to China’s outrageous demands in England.
If they’re going to be willingly Chinese led, make them look the part (and stop shopping there until they get their shit together).


Police Called To Stop Filming During Piano Livestream

newtboy says...

Crazy entitled people that make up “rights” come from all countries.
Idiotic busybody police come from all different countries too.
Here we have a convergence.

If you can’t be filmed, don’t go walk in front of cameras you know are filming.

Listen….Listen….if she doesn’t want to relay his instructions to them, she shouldn’t have tried to enforce their instructions on him.

bobknight33 (Member Profile)

newtboy says...

In case you’re wondering why Trump is doing so poorly outside the cult…I mean party….


The clear plan to make abortion 100% federally banned nationwide with no exceptions including incestuous child rape or risking the life of the mother the minute they gain control despite spending decades insisting it’s a state’s rights issue is the biggest driving force for voters this cycle. 😂Thank Trump, his big “win” has been a major loss for your party repeatedly and consistently, and has lost at the state level every time it hit the ballot.

Trump Supporter CHANGES MIND on Biden in 60sec

newtboy says...

As usual, you have it all 100% backwards. Not surprising since you are a Russian propagandist.
Russia secretly invaded Ukraine in 2014 as pure expansionism, when they finally admitted the invasion their excuse was Russians in Crimea were being poorly treated and a fear extremists would take over Russian military bases, having absolutely nothing to do with NATO.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation#:~:text=Russia%20eventually%20admitted%20its%20troops,Russian%20military%
20infrastructure%20by%20extremists%22.

NATO is now “creeping into buffer countries” because Russia started and continues an expansionist policy and threatens its neighbors. Russian expansionism started first. There have been 3 rounds of NATO expansion since Russia started retaking now sovereign lost satellite territories in 2014.
There was never an agreement that NATO wouldn’t accept new members, just as there’s nothing stopping Russia from making allies.
Ukraine was going to be an EU country until Russia’s installed “president” ignored the people and chose Russia over Ukraine and was deposed and expelled so Ukrainians could democratically choose their own leadership which they did. Then Russia invaded.
There was absolutely no chance of them joining NATO until after the invasion, now it’s a near certainty.

Democracy in Europe IS our business. We will be fighting this war at some time, either now while Russia is weak and poor through a proxy or later when we are in a much weaker position fighting them with American soldiers directly…much better to choose now for less money and zero Americans, I know you would prefer to just let Putin re-annex the Balkan states and expand as far as he chooses, returning to socialist communism under his tyrannical leadership, but the free world would prefer to stay free.

And again, it is our business as I clearly explained to you repeatedly because we signed, and actually directed the trilateral disarmament agreement in 92 when we agreed to secure their borders against any incursion and they gave up nuclear weapons the collapsing soviets couldn’t afford to secure themselves. You would make any future agreements, and any current treaties moot and impossible to guarantee because our guarantee is worse than worthless. So shortsighted and not smart. It’s important to keep your word internationally, I know as a MAGgot that doesn’t make sense, just like telling the truth even if it hurts you doesn’t make sense to you…honesty and honor are foreign concepts to your ilk.
It would be nice if you could remember being so wrong so I didn’t have to correct you over and over and over on the exact same topic…but you can’t admit you are wrong so you will forget you were proven wrong, again, and spout the same ignorance, again, forever. So sad and mentally defective….it’s a main feature of MAGA, severe brain damage.

Walk away MAGA policies would hand the world to China, Russia, and N Korea without a word of complaint, then confusion over where our allies are when they come for us.
Ukraine is a war Russia started, one that’s being won by Ukraine with help, and one that has crippled Russia for decades to come WAY cheaper than any American policy could have. Give Joe credit, fine, Joe bankrupted Russia and destroyed their military…I don’t give him that credit, you do.

No, leftists said he would bring us into ruin, and that if he followed trough with his stated intentions he would bring us into war…but he never follows through and caved to China and Russia instead of standing strong for American ideals, interests, and Western democracy. He nearly did start a war by assassinating Iranian government officials and Syrians. I remember when you said ISIS was a nothing burger and not worth paying attention to, right before they took near half of Iraq and Syria, started attacking Americans, and we went to war with them in 2017…who was president then?
We were still at war in Afghanistan when he left office, he had just surrendered unconditionally to the Taliban and Al Qaeda under an agreement they broke repeatedly, but we were still there until Biden (poorly) facilitated the retreat Trump negotiated. Trump/MAGA didn’t avoid or end wars. Nice try at revisionism.

The policy bringing the US near war today is our Israel policy that is the same unthinking blind support for Israel from both parties, same from both presidential candidates. We are in direct military actions endangering American soldiers daily because of THAT conflict, not because of Ukraine. The unbridled ignorance is disappointing even from you. 🤦‍♂️

Ending wars by capitulating like Trump did with Crimea and surrendering unconditionally like Trump did in Afghanistan is not “winning”, it’s losing without even trying and hands the world to dictators.

bobknight33 said:

The kid is asking the wrong question.

The question is Why is Russia invading Ukraine.

The answer is NATO creeping into buffer countries that was agreed on after the fall of Russia.

NATO has not stopped expanding since the fall of the Soviet Union, growing from 17 countries in 1990 to 30 today, several of which were once part of the Soviet-led Warsaw pact.


Finally Ukraine is not a NATO country----------- This is none of our business.


Biden failed Policies have done nothing but keeping pushing for war --

Ukraine is a lost war.

FJB

You leftest said if Trump was POTUS - He would bring us into war--- Never happened.
MEGA 2024 to end wars.

God Made A Dictator

newtboy says...

Sorry the truth is so triggering for you. It’s an easily verifiable fact that The Lincoln Project is a Republican created organization dedicated to preserving real conservative ideals and democracy, which by definition makes them anti trump. 😂

The uncontrollable 13 cut-and-paste post tirade is hilarious, very Trump…you don’t think people are looking at your whining videos for idiots do you? 🤦‍♂️
This must have REALLY gotten under your tissue paper thin skin! Hilarious. 😂

bobknight33 said:

Bull shit right wing -- Leftest Anti Trump.

bobknight33 (Member Profile)

newtboy says...

You have no idea what you’re talking about, as usual. Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014. Crimea was part of Ukraine. Biden had nothing to do with it, Trump encouraged them to go farther by recognizing Crimea as Russia to appease his benefactor, Putin…and historically Bush sr made the trilateral agreement essentially guaranteeing to protect Ukraine’s borders with US military power in exchange for nuclear deploliferation in the wake of the fall of the Soviet Union in 92. Should we ignore the international treaty and destroy our reputation, making it impossible to make any international agreements at all? You likely think so as an honorless liar.

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-trilateral-process-the-united-states-ukraine-russia-and-nuclear-weapons/

I know you don’t know the history, but that’s no excuse for making up nonsense.

Putin’s continuing expansionist policy has forced the hand of NATO to admit multiple countries that before the invasions weren’t even being considered, and make plans for admitting Ukraine, not the other way around you fool.
The waste is to throw away a victory for democracy and against a likely return to communist socialism just to hand Biden a loss…as if it were his war.

bobknight33 said:

Why do you stand for Bidens failure?
Biden policies with NATO forced the Russian hand and Biden lost. Worst thousands of lives lost............Such a waste all for not.



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