Currently holding 1400 shares.

With the current depressed price it is a fantastic buying opportunity. Lots of shit all all around but nothing has changed with Tesla.


Highly volatile stock but think long term of 5+ years.
Tesla stated goal to grow 50% every year. They have been doing this. Last year 2021 84% growth in vehicles.


I tell friends to buy and expect a loss ( big swings day to day) buy to hold and focus on the long game.


Who else owns Tesla shares?

As I've posted previously, If you want to see how fast change can happen watch this.

All in on one stock is not smart investing. Not one bit. Never. Ask anyone who invested in the highly profitable Enron stock. You might get lucky, and you might lose everything.

S&P beat Tesla by over 10% last year. If you bought Tesla last November, you already lost 1/3 of your value.

S&P also doesn’t have the highest PE ratio of all large public companies trading today at >175. (20-25 are considered good PE ratios, over 30 is overvalued, under 15 is selling at a discount)
Bubbles burst. Just saying.

Not smart for some/ most, agreed. Most people let some one else manage their $. Most people don't watch day to day.

I've been buying stocks for last 20 years. Took a lot of lumps. My main goal was to not to loose my shirt. A lot of lessons learned, mainly what not to do.

Main lesson learned was to find a Amazon.Target, Starbucks or Apple just as they become trendy. If you had bought and hold any of these for the last 10 years, you would be doing just fine. Tesla fits this model. Its 20 years old and finally over last 2 really planted its stake permanently as a auto maker. They are the EV leader.

That being said Tesla is easy to follow and see. There is enough active YouTube channels people reporting daily from around the world on Tesla. A person can fully understand this business and what is going on.

Other companies are more secretive and also no one really cares.


My final thought is this. IMO Tesla is at the same point as when Steve jobs introduced the iPhone in 2006.

Dont you wish you loaded up on apple back in 2006 @ $7 bucks a share? Apple close Friday was $168.

Its about the long game.

Good until it’s not, then it’s disaster.
It’s not smart for anyone ever to put all their eggs in one basket. No matter how much they watch the basket. Shit happens, shit out of your control, and when it hits the fan, by the time you feel the spray it can be too late. Nothing is totally safe, you want to lose it all because Elon decided Dogecoin IS a good investment and puts every penny into it, then changes his mind? (Close to what happened, btw).
It’s also about diversification in successful companies so when one goes down you aren’t homeless. That is both safer and more profitable….short and long term.
All intelligent investing is about the long game, get rich quick schemes are just that, schemes, not stable investments.

If you learned from your lumps, why are you suggesting such poor investment advice? Where’s the NEXT Tesla, it already had it’s big boom. You don’t invest on the way down.


The issue is you are talking up Tesla two years too late. Pre 2020, you would have been totally correct, today not so much.

I have Apple….but not just Apple.

Precognition sounds great, but it’s always a craps game….and a crappy game.

Bob, please read this carefully. I know we fuck around a lot here, but I 100% honestly don't want to see you get hurt financially.

Obviously, if you believe in TSLA, I understand you putting your money where your mouth is (full disclosure: I'm holding POTX and CURLF, so I'm on the same page with what I'm saying on this) but PLEASE don't bet money you don't have on TSLA.

“At 10-times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback (P/E 10, my note), I must pay you 100% of revenues for 10-straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. It also assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company.

That assumes zero expenses, which is hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that expects you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10-years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate.

Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those underlying assumptions are? You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes.

What were you thinking?”

-- Scott McNealy was the CEO of Sun Microsystems
2002

At the peak of the Dot-Com, roughly 30 stocks in the NASDAQ 100 traded above 10 P/E. Today ALL stocks in the DAQ do: the average P/E is ~25.5.

TSLA is at a P/E of 175.

There is no American economy. There hasn't been since since October 3 of 2008. Things got catastrophically worse on September 17th of 2019 when the repo market came within hours of completely locking up in a catastrophe that would have made AIG look like a rounding error. The Fed was forced to firehose astronomical amounts of money into the system to keep this from happening and this was before Covid.

In Jan of 2021, there was $2.6 TRILLION in Zombie Debt out there. That's $2.6 TRILLION on the verge of default at 2021 interest rates. The Fed is now in a horrific position: raise rates and watch massive defaults explode like financial nukes, or keep rates steady and watch inflation implode the economy.

People don't understand how bad this is and how much worse it can get. If the Fed has to raise rates by 500 BP -- and Christ fucking help us if they do -- the first order defaults will be the worst in Capitalist history and the second and third order effects could very well be the nightmare scenario we came within 36 hours of in 2008.

Save your money, Bob. Cash is king. And fuck BTC.

Duly noted.

Sift animosity aside, given and taken. I truly desire all to succeed.

Your statements about the economy as a whole applies to all, whether they diversify or solely own just 3 stocks or less.


I don't fear a crash of 87 or 2008. But your are right the ground beneath us is shaking. Having belief in our leaders and FED to do the the right thing is a is half harted. Even if they choose a proper corrective path it will be a bumpy ride.



You are right I am forward thinking and willing to take a few hard bumps over the next 10 years. I believe the upside is worth this risk.


I don't want a japan crash that took 25+ years to recover, or a 1929 crash which took 10 years and war to recover.

Every hard crash recovers, eventually.

If things go bad I will exit. Granted no one has perfect timing and neither do I. Will I loose 20 30% probably.

I do watch markets daily.


I'm 60 with 2 years left on the house mortgage. I will have a GE pension and hopefully some SS. Granted inflation can eat that 4K/month away but it will still help. Also I would continue to work.

And if that's not enough at least the house will be paid for and I will eat PB and J. or rice and beans.

Finding a unicorn is very unlikely. Sorry.

I hope you don’t take expensive medication, Republicans just blocked even a vote on the plan to allow Medicare to negotiate drug prices out of pure spite against Biden, doubling or more the cost of medication for older Americans.

Because I dislike your politics doesn’t mean I wish you harm….even self inflicted.

IMO they will raise rates. the economy will stall. they will be forced to increase purchases of equities and reduce rates (again). the fed will not let another 2008 happen however they will make the crash that much harder. the house of cards has been built for a long time over many administrations and its waay past the point of any attempt at recovery. delaying the pain will make the pain even worse but when it comes crashing down USD will be gone forever and alternatives (like metals and yes BTC) will reign. you will have time though as petrodollar is king at this point other nations will fall before us. make your time.

I certainly hope so, 0-.25% doesn’t cover administrative costs for basically free loans.
If they go slow, it shouldn’t stall….cool off a bit, sure. That’s acceptable.

Personally, I think it all became funny money when Nixon dropped the gold standard, and I would support returning to it, painful as it would be. At least the dollar would have some permanent fairly predictable value. (And the fed would be forced to stop printing more money to pay government debts, which causes inflation).

yes!

No!

A gold standard provides none of the perceived advantages.
There was never any stability under a gold standard.
Unless its just a Bretton-Woods type "gold" standard where the gold is symbolic. The fed printing money is what keeps economy swings moderate.

Moving this video to bobknight33's personal queue. It failed to receive enough votes to get sifted up to the front page within 2 days.

No.
IMO….The fed printing money is (one reason) why the economy is a disaster.
Every dollar the fed prints makes every dollar worth less….and eventually worthless.
The fed keeping a moderate reserve and releasing some to stabilize the economy AND RECAPTURING IT LATER keeps economy swings moderate. (You just have to not listen to morons who don’t ever want to rebuild the reserve because it cools off hot economies, and instead they want to live on credit).
Printing money is NOT a permanent solution to not having enough money, and doesn’t keep the economy stable long term. Ask Venezuela.

Basing your dollar’s value on gdp means another 2020 and it might disappear altogether instead of just seeing high inflation for years….no advantage there

If youre a normal country you are always living on credit, if for no other reason, then because it is super easy and cheap to borrow. Also you have to, to make it to the next pay check (tax collection). First your subjects have to produce and sell, then you can collect taxes.

You dont base the value of the dollar on anything. You offer it as a commodity to the market. If your economy sucks or you print too much money the dollar goes down, which can help the economy. Printing money doesnt automatically help the economy though, it just creates space and time to make it possible for the economy to improve.

Improving the economy means creating more or better products and services that are in demand at a competitive cost. Governments in non-dictatorial countries cant really do that directly, they can only create the conditions for this to happen.

Moderate inflation hardly plays a part, except as a moderator (is that a pun?) of shocks. Deflation (and a strong gold standard in a developing economy IS deflation) is deadly, it makes the economy less flexible, less able to adjust.

If you never improve your ecomomy, all you will have left will be to bitch about inflation.

What is too much debt, too much inflation, too much intervention? I wish economics was a science.

Theoretically the economy can get to be so bad that the structure collapses, there are countries which have notoriously bad historical records, and yet every time they restart they have to borrow money to get things going again. Reserves in general are useless. Production, services and a functioning market, recursive production of valuable goods and services which freely and easily find customers is the only thing you can consider a reliable pillar of civilization. Currency is one of those goods and services.

If for any reason yor currency cant freely circulate (see China or the USSR errr... Russia) you can hardly be a superpower, at least not in the economic sense.

Adopting a gold standard so strong that it would destroy the international dollar standard has no advantage for the USofA or for any developed first world country. Even just having the Euro wreaks havoc in weaker European countries economies, but that is another can of worms.

A lot of what is wrong about the gold standard would apply if a country decided to adopt bitcoin as its sole currency btw.

TLDR Printing money is not a solution to anything, also it is not the reason the economy sucks.

Oh yeah, Tesla stock, isnt there a rule of thumb where youre not meant to invest more than 20% of your funds in one vehicle? (insert pun apology)

If by all-in you mean investing all your stock funds in tesla, while you own your house (land?) and keep your pension plan and short term savings and long term non-stock investments intact then go for it! May you live in interesting times!

If the dollar has no actual value…you’re sunk from the start.

Improving gdp is the only way to add value today….much easier said than done, and possible to go backwards at light speed.

Are you calling the US a developing country? Deflation isn’t a concern for most. It’s pretty rare.

If you improve the economy artificially, the bill will come due someday inconvenient and likely cause depression, not just recession.

Restarting countries didn’t all borrow, some tried to take over the world and ignore all their debts. Just saying.

If you have gold backing your dollar, even if your dollar somehow collapsed you’ve still got all the gold. That’s just one reason it’s smart. If you don’t issue dollars for every ounce of gold in reserve, you can add dollars without the risk of inflation, then remove them when possible.

You keep saying it has no advantages, I’ve listed many.

Outrageous idiotic bullshit. Gold is a commodity universally valued. Bitcoin is worse than nothing, it costs money just by existing and has absolutely no value besides what idiots will pay, that’s like basing your economy on beanie babies and saying it’s the same as physical gold. WTF man?

A dollar has value if you can buy shit for a dollar.

Gold likewise has no exchange value if you cant exchange it for goods and services. Its rare and chemically stable and good for memorial coins, has many technical uses and looks cute, but otherwise it hardly matters what symbol for money you choose. There is 200 years of experience with fiat money and gold and silver standards and fiat money has been better, not just usually better or better in some scenario, universally better.

Symbolic money is practical and facilitates quicker turn around prevents deflation makes speculative runs on currency harder and smoothes the economic bumps in the road in general.

GDP is just a metric. Not a bad one but not the actual goal.

USofA is teh most developed. Should have used growing. Deflation in an economy that is growing kills growth.

Restarting countries not only get to ignore their debts, they immediatelly start borrowing again.

The only countries that dont borrow are countries no-one will lend to and countries so rich in some silly resource they can float high in the international currency system without borrowing. Borrowing is good for bussiness.

What is outrageous idiotic bullshit? Believing pegging the value of your paper note to some hoarded luxury makes it a better representation of the mean value of goods and services bought and sold? I could do without gold except for the jacks on my audio cables (just kidding). It does not matter what I exchange for food and gas, if it gets me food and gas, its good money.

Money is what you can pay taxes with. Do they take gold?

If you insist your dollar has the value of some weight of gold how does that influence the willingness of someone else to sell you shit? Unless they specifically intend to buy gold at a fixed price they dont care. They are going to use your dolar to buy some other shit from someone else. So if you take the actual currency out of the equation, when you decide on buying and selling shit you are intuitively comparing that decision with all the other decisions about buying and sellin that you know of. The currency is just a good way to count the measure of usefullness of a product or service and compare among many. Pebbles, bottletops, dollars, gold, pearls, all just a number.

A dollar could be backed by gold or it could not, this has zero impact on the transactions made. What matters is how many transactions are made, at what value, and how much money is available to the entire marketplace in a given period of time. Transactions quickly pass the ability of a gold standard to keep up. If you want a gold standard you have to slow transactions down because you dont have the money for them.

This is why markets need some regulation, otherwise someone might sell the universe twice and then default on one. But a gold standard, at least the type of gold standard I believe was talked about in this thread as a miracle cure, would be too limiting.

That is a pretty solid definition of exchange value. You can go shopping with that.

Yes, but day to day you don’t know if you need .05 of one for groceries or a wheelbarrow full. It’s unstable. That’s the entire point I’m making.

Unsecured “tokens” with no intrinsic value (like gold has) are only worth what a moron will pay….today. That varies wildly.

Gold is worth what nations have agreed is it’s value worldwide (with minor local variation)….and it has actual uses, and a finite measurable volume.

A German mark had value….until it didn’t. Your opinion of “fiat money” isn’t universal by any stretch. You say it’s universally better. I wholeheartedly disagree, and point to Germany and Venezuela as proof. They aren’t outliers either, (looking at Africa).

Gold is useful and valuable. Digital footprints aren’t. Paper notes aren’t. Printed circuits, connectors, anti oxidation, actual physical money, jewelry, etc. gold has intrinsic value, a dollar bill has about 13210 joules, so its intrinsic worth is about 1 small 1 gram stick as kindling and little more….no matter if it’s a $1 or $500 bill or a check for billions. Again, see Germany, where bills were more valuable as firewood than money.

This deflation idea again. Give me 3 examples of deflation harming/ending a nation on the gold standard please, I’ve never heard of it happening. (Edit: as far as I can find, I’m no economics professor, for the most part the gold standard was abandoned worldwide in the early 1930’s and the last remnants removed in the early 70’s by Nixon)

Explain how unsecured notes guard against speculation….don’t just claim it. I don’t see it, people made a mint short selling Venezuelan (and other failed) dollars….speculating they would crash….they did. What?

GDP is the metric that imparts value to unsecured notes offered by countries.

I think you had a mini stroke, the paragraph starting USofA is a word salad with no meaning.

Name 3. I named Germany post ww1….they didn’t get to borrow or ignore their debts. What are you talking about?

So, the only ones that don’t/can’t borrow are all the ones that need to.

Pretending basing your dollar on Bitcoin is the same as basing it on gold is outrageous idiotic bullshit. Just nonsense. Utterly moronic and pure fantasy. Don’t try moving the goalposts, that’s what you said.

Yes, the fed will take gold. They don’t take Bitcoin, do they? How about shells? Pebbles?

Jesus, you just want to argue. You’re rambling, switching positions and going off on tangents.
It’s not about whether someone might accept it, it’s about whether it’s universally accepted at one value and about holding its accepted long term value. People once gladly accepted beanie babies as payment….stupid people.
Arcata Ca printed up Arcata dollars….you could get them cheap, businesses took them. Wanna put your nest egg into them? You say that’s good money, as good as dollars. I’ll sell them to you for gold, and let’s see who’s doing better in 10 years. Or I’ll sell you pebbles for gold. Any currency you want, I’ll sell you for gold. How’s that working with pebbles or shells? Can you buy currency with them?

It has everything to do with how much it’s worth. Stop jumping subjects because your point is failing to convince. An economy based on pebbles fails because their neighbors don’t value pebbles, but if their pebbles are gold, they succeed because gold is valued universally.

What are you talking about, the gold standard’s ability to keep up? Huh?! No keep up necessary, no slow down required, gold trades exactly as fast as everything else. What is this nonsense?!?

You mean you can’t overspend and go deep into debt?! And that’s bad?! In your opinion, not many economists….and what makes you think you can’t borrow against gold? Secured loans are easier and cheaper to come by. WHAT?!?

Yes, unsecured paper money can just be printed forever, you CAN “sell the universe”. (Or sell dollars who’s overall value is based on your country’s value) over and over, then print more and sell 9/10 again, print more, sell again. Eventually that money is worth less than it costs to print, and your creditors get paid off in dollars worth a tiny fraction of what they lent you. Not if it’s backed with gold.

Miracle cure?!? Quote it. I think you misread. Secured notes being better than unsecured notes is not “miracle cure” or perfection, it’s just measurably better, safer, and more stable. No system is perfect.

That is the point of discussion, right?

I know a true gold standard is inferior to a well functioning reserve bank issuing paper money and an international exchange standard based on mutual trade agreements.

I am not sure I can explain it well or convince you, but I like you so I try.

Unfortunately the matter seems to be complicated.

The fact that something has, as you put it, "real" value is actually a bad thing, as clipping gold coins is as old as gold coins.

So let us assume gold coins are out and we are going to use some form of symbolic money...

Nope this will not fit in this thread.

No, the point of discussion to come to an understanding IMO, not to just argue.

You KNOW this, eh? I think you just believe that, but Ok, then where do we get a well functioning reserve bank? We certainly don’t have one now, we don’t even have a fully staffed reserve board capable of doing business. The gold standard isn’t constantly relying on a functioning fed….good thing because we haven’t had one for decades and don’t seem likely to have one anytime in the near future….by design.

Coin clipping went out with edge minting. Please. Nobody was using pieces of 8 of $20 coins.

Yes but to converge the two sides have to acknowledge the arguments of the other side, unfortunately I am probably not arguing well enough and Im perfectly willing to just give up.

Anyway you seem to be able to research complicated topics well, you can read up about the history and end of the gold standard and about deflation for your own sake in your own time :-)

Fighting against fiat money, reserve banks, inflation and national debt is like fighting against democracy or free speech.
Sometimes democracy gives you Trump, sometimes free speech gives you porn (or worse, Fox news), sometimes the economy gets out of hand, but mostly these things work better than their alternatives and prevent or minimize crashes, based on the experience of the last 200 years. Every time someone thought better, they made things worse.