Newt,

This is in response to your comment on my statement about Biden needing to lose in '20.

I recently wrote this as a reply to one of my readers (I write under a number of different names in other places).:

Dear <name>,

>I took some time to absorb what you wrote. It's a lot to juggle. The Atlantic has an article in the July-August issue on the worst and best case scenario in CLO defaults. I'll read more.

I read the article you mentioned, and while it's certainly good, it also misses a very important point that explains the mess we're in: the collapse of Lehman and Bear-Stearns, while catastrophic in their own ways, were not the nightmare that caused the Fed to freak out in 2008 -- AIG was. Had AIG gone under and the counterparty default contracts triggered, we'd be on the barter system right now. We came within hours of not having an economy in the western world. The $700b ($.7t) the Fed coughed up to stop this from happening calmed the panic, but did nothing to resolve the underlying issues. These issues continued to compound during the 2011-2020 stock run-up and now we're at the point where the Fed is throwing trillions of dollars at every piece of bad debt they can find just to keep the whole thing from imploding into an economic black hole. It is important to note that in September '19, the credit markets started freezing because of the debt that was already on the books then, -before- CV-19 started rolling, and it took $3t just to get them unlocked again. Absolutely nothing has gotten better since then, and I would argue things have gotten dangerously worse.

In an odd coincidence, the NYT ran an article today about the looming bankruptcy crisis. They're calling for 30-60 days before things start imploding, but I'll stick to my estimate of ~90 days. There's some talk about extending the $600 benefits (we'll see) and chatter about another stimulus check, but that's kicking the can as well as telegraphing how bad things really are. When the Republicans are getting behind free money, you know we're in some uncharted territory. For all intents and purposes, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) -- the reason the Fed is backstopping debt and printing money like crazy -- is the hill the US economy will live or die on. Should the US dollar come unpegged as the world's de facto currency or should inflation begin (and there's already worrying signs this is happening), that's game over.

Please don't take anything I say as the Word of God; please do your own research and come to your own conclusions. Everything I've said is an opinion based on my education, experience and way of thinking. Your mileage may vary.

Here is the article I mentioned: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/18/business/corporate-bankruptcy-coronavirus.html -- might be paywalled, but clear your cookies for the NYT and you should be able to read it.


>Frankly, it's the physical danger in my area of the States that concerns me. There are the guns and bullying. During some BLM demonstrations in the Midwest, locals were standing around with semi-automatics. I drive a Prius for the fuel efficiency. Pick up trucks enjoy tailgating, trying to intimidate me. This behavior isn't going to change with a change of President but will get worse is we don't change. This ideological push to takeover the country instead of ruling by compromise started around the same time we came to the US in 1981, Reagan's first year. I was so shocked when I heard talk radio for the first time; this wasn't the country I had left in the 1970s.


And now we come to the giant pile of sweaty dynamite that's just waiting for the right shock to set it off. I could give you a prolonged lecture about how this all started in 1978 with California's Proposition 13, or how David Stockman's tragically prescient warnings were blatantly ignored, but Haynes Johnson does a far better job at this than I ever could in his 1991 book "Sleepwalking Through History", as does Kevin Phillips in 2006's "American Theocracy". Honestly, at this point, the prelude is academic. The reality of the situation is that a large swath of adult Americans are appalling ill-educated, innumerate and devoid of even the most basic critical-thinking skills. These people are now locked out of the Information Economy. They lack the most basic skills required to compete in the 21st century job market and thus will watch their standard of living sink into the abyss. These people are not blind to this fact because they're living with the reality of their situation every single day. They're totally without hope, cut off from all avenues of control over their own lives and they feel utterly abandoned by the very people who're supposed to be helping them. The reason you're seeing bullying and behavior like that is because these same people are totally removed from any avenues of recourse and the only people they can take their anger out on are people like you and me. Their anger is being stoked on a daily basis. FOX News and the GOP are experts at this and have a host of boogeymen to keep the anger from being pointed their way: ANTIFA, BLM (black Americans have always made a perfect target), "coastal elites" and, of course, Liberals.

Trump's election was a warning, not an outlier. Trump was the primal scream of these people and Liberals and the Democrats as a whole chose not to listen because they found the sound so abhorrent. The rage will only get worse and the number of people enveloped by this rage will only grow as economic conditions worsen. At this point, it no longer matters who wins in '20. Winning the election will be like winning the deed to the World Trade Center one second after the first jet hit. The damage has already been done and no steps are being taken to repair it; if anything, people are actively making it worse either through ideological blindness, deliberate malfeasance or outright stupidity. It took almost 50 years to get to this point and the endemic issues will not be undone in a single generation, much less a single election. Until the people who voted for Trump feel a sense of real hope, a sense of control over their lives and a genuine expectation of recourse for their grievances, they will keep right on voting for Trump, or people like him.

My unfortunate suspicion is that this country will rip itself to shreds long before those reforms are enacted.

Side note: the fundamental difference between the United States and Europe is that European history has forced the nations of Europe to live with the consequences of their actions. Not so the United States. Europe has suffered for her sins. Not so the United States. The two bloodiest wars in human history were fought on European soil. Not so the United States. The United States has never faced true suffering, nor has it ever had to live with the ramifications of its own actions. Both these facts are about to change and a nation whose character is built on a mythology of individual action and violence is going to have to face reality. The people of this nation are not prepared for this and they will not like it.

Second side note: many people are erroneously comparing the current situation to the Wiemar Republic. This is a lack of historical understanding. A more apt comparison would be to Spain in late 1935.


>As for re-opening, we could have gotten some control if the "leader" had simply donned a mask and used realistic thinking. People could go back to work more safely, wash hands, stay a certain distance. But his hubris led the way, so now we'll have a roller coaster for months and years that will affect the economy even more. France is a good comparison because they were unprepared also, having slashed the public healthcare budget for the last twenty years. But when they laid down the rules, troops patrolled the streets to be sure they were followed. So far, they've flattened the curve (for now), and used different economic incentives, such as paying part of employees' salaries to keep them employed.

At this point, the pace of re-opening is a difference between very bad and much worse. Had $3t been used to pay the yearly salary of every American, we could have saved lives and the economy, but we didn't. The history of 2020 will be littered with "what-ifs". However, the first thing you learn when studying history is that what-ifs are useless because things are what they are and you can't change that. It's already obvious we're going into a second wave. If previous pandemics are any indication of what's to come, this second wave will be many times worse than the first. The wait for a vaccine is indeterminate, but if we're going for herd immunity, ~70% of Americans will need to catch the virus. To date, ~1.5% have. If the US population is ~330 million, ~230 million will need to catch the virus. Call the mortality rate 2%, that means ~4.6 million Americans will die. That's a lot of dead Americans and grieving families.

Take care,

(my actual name)

Bwaaahahaha.
Oh Bobby. Did bad man make Bobby cwy hurt?
Edit: It's OK Bob, I know you care more than you can ever admit. I even care about you, even though I'm >90% sure you are a troll farm with multiple users posting as one with ulterior motives...maybe because that's who you are.
I care, because truth is important and you are a vocal enemy of truth.


You really want to talk about "his own words" when you side with unapologetically self admitted daughter lusting, serial philanderer, pornstar raw dogging, woman debasing and dehumanizing, forceful and proud repeated finger raping, friend's wives fucking, prostitute fucking, naked little girl leering, charity defrauding, student defrauding, biggest loser Trump (all admitted to by his own words) vs shoulder rubbing grandpa Biden? Oh yeah, let's do it.

For every word flub Biden makes, and there are many, Trump flubs 50 words. For every misstatement of fact by Biden, and he does misstate some facts, Trump outright lies to the public 100 times (then says he's under no obligation to tell the truth if he's not under oath), for every unwanted touch accusation against Biden, Trump has >25 sexual assault accusations. For every mea culpa from Biden over behavior that is only inappropriate by today's standards but not contemporarily we get 100 excuses and victim blaming with constantly changing excuses from Trump. You REALLY don't want this to be a contest of character....Trump's character loses that contest every single time and thrice on Sundays.

Trump called this crime bill too soft and lenient.

Lol. I'm the troll! Ahahahahaha! I'm not the one running a sock puppet theater. LMFAHS.
Your desperation is showing again.

The social contract is obey cops when asked. When this does not occur things escalate. Sadly both sides has amp up over the decades. Now both sides have lost control,respect and have distrust for each other.

Don't need to banning police dept just publicly change with both sides agreeing.

I propose, in big broad strokes.
No one goes to jail unless a serious crime murder, armed robbery or a warrant is out on you.

IF pulled over, be cool, comply, knowing nothing will result in arrest/ jail.

If you have a dime bag, kilo coke, etc, I don't care, they take it and fine you the value also. Also the right to gather you address and those with you. Then because e of your offense the PD ( where ever you live or moved to) has a 6 month right to knock and cursory search of your residence ( and those with you). Same deal they find, take anything illegal and fine of equivalent value. LB of weed, Kilo of coke I don't care. Take and fine. Guns take and if used in crime then warrant for arrest. Finding stuff allows cops to stop by again with in 6 months and now have right for thorough search. Same deal search, take and fine. If 3rd search occurs and find stuff then criminal charges filed if heavy drugs or amounts found.

With this in place no would / should put up a fight. Cops not to make arrest, populate jails or f over people with high court costs.

This should help change bad behavior, let minor crap slide, and bad dudes land in jail fair and squarely.

Let's also be clear, some sparse instances of pleasantries and kindnesses performed on camera while outnumbered 4-1 in no way indicate their violent racist behavior off camera when they have control will change. Most departments have gone the other direction, widening the gap between us and them instead of bridging it. -Newtboy

I support the police and lean very heavily to giving them the benefit of the doubt in the absence of other evidence.

From someone with that point of view, you're comment is providing cover for the racists and monsters infecting the police.

If you watch this video and all you can see is someone not following police commands with adequate speed and accuracy then you are blind.

Can you not see the guy has his hands up from the start, and can you not hear him shouting how he is scared? Did you not see his Grandma struggling with her walking cane to make it out to try and protect him?

You have a portion of your community that is terrified of police interactions, and the bad behavior that has led to that fear has not come from the community, but the racist and dirty cops on the force that need weeding out.

Why? I doubt you want an honest answer, but here's one anyway.

Because the Fed refused to help states in crisis and, to free up desperately needed hospital beds for those in immediate dire need of hospitalization, some infected patients who were not showing symptoms or in need of hospitalization were discharged to facilities where they could receive routine care outside the hospital.
Had this not been done, there would have been a massive shortage in hospital beds, and a corresponding jump in deaths across the board. It would have been smart to quarantine them separately like California did in many cases, at least until we were sure they were no longer infectious, but since American testing still gives 50% false negatives, that's impossible.
Because most nursing homes utterly failed to follow guidelines for properly quarantining these patients, and because the virus targets exactly the same people who live in nursing homes, elderly with health issues, and because the outbreak began in nursing homes and spread among them while Trump insisted there was no danger, it's less dangerous than the flu, there's no need to change behavior and we won't ever have over 15 cases, they were going to be a major problem.

Those were their only options given the federal government's near total lack of action, keep them in the hospital and deny other patients or send them "home" to be quarantined. Neither was a good option, both were certain to end in increased deaths.


If, as I and others suggested in January, we used the military to build temporary hospitals for covid only like China had already done and instituted social distancing, we would have <10% of the cases we've had and might be safe to relax. Instead we did nothing for months based on Trump's ignorant stupidity and his narcissistic insistence that he knows more about everything than educated career professionals, this cost at least 90000 American lives and rising, along with the decimation of the economy, the explosion of the deficit and debt, and at best a recession if not depression that could have been avoided.

https://reason.com/2020/03/31/2-2-million-american-deaths-from-covid-19/

Here


"The 2.2 million figure was a projection based on a scenario where not only do the government and private companies not engage in any "control measures," but individuals don't on their own change their behavior to avoid contracting or spreading the virus. The study refers to this possibility as "unlikely," but let's be blunt: it's entirely fanciful. "

That's the origin. So yes, we are doing better than if the entire country 's population of individuals did nothing, AND the government did nothing. That's technically true, but it's about as likely as people sitting at their desks when the office catches fire.

More head up your ass denial from the right. Do your research...you'll find that, unlike every other president ever, Trump continues to hide his assets and refuse to divest in non-American companies. His stock holdings in Sanofi, maker of the name brand, have been uncovered, but who knows how much of his holdings are still secret? No one since his financial ties are locked door secrets. What is clear is that multiple major donors have massive holdings in sanofi and other generic manufacturers, some ARE drug manufacturers, so he has good reason to sell it even if he didn't have the personal stake that he has....he gets millions in donations he can pilfer.

FYI, a near 100% of doctors disagree, there are zero studies and only some anecdotal evidence to support Trump's self serving snake oil claims, and tons of proof that it's dangerous, has side effects that can be permanently disabling or deadly and may be worse and more likely than average Covid19 symptoms, and has not proven to be effective against Covid19. Do your research. Drugs of last resort should not be used as preventative or unsupervised medicine, or be suggested by people who know nothing but stand to benefit financially.

It's bad because it causes;
Blistering, peeling, loosening of the skin
blurred vision or other vision changes
chest discomfort, pain, or tightness
cough or hoarseness
dark urine
decreased urination
defective color vision
diarrhea
difficulty breathing
difficulty seeing at night
dizziness or fainting
fast, pounding, uneven heartbeat
feeling that others are watching you or controlling your behavior
feeling that others can hear your thoughts
feeling, seeing, or hearing things that are not there
fever with or without chills
general feeling of tiredness or weakness
headache
inability to move the eyes
increased blinking or spasms of the eyelid
joint or muscle pain
large, hive-like swelling on the face, eyelids, lips, tongue, throat, hands, legs, feet, and sex organs
loss of hearing
lower back or side pain
noisy breathing
painful or difficult urination
red irritated eyes
red skin lesions, often with a purple center
severe mood or mental changes
sore throat sores, ulcers, or white spots on the lips or in the mouth
sticking out of the tongue
stomach pain
swelling of the feet or lower legs
swollen or painful glands
trouble with breathing, speaking, or swallowing
uncontrolled twisting movements of the neck, trunk, arms, or legs
unusual behavior
unusual bleeding or bruising
unusual facial expressions
unusual tiredness or weakness
yellow eyes or skin
Heart failure
Death
All with no evidence it helps with Covid19

There are >10 million doctors worldwide. Thousands equates to .02% think it's the right treatment. That means ten million doctors worldwide disagree. The only medical studies done so far have shown it's not effective against covid19, but is deadly when taken with diabetes medications. The anecdotal evidence that it helps comes from places where it's used in conjunction with antibacterial or antiviral drugs, when used alone it's useless.
Jebus, @bobknight33, the dangerous stupidity is increasing with every post. Not one bit surprising, you get all your information from unethical, amoral propagandists like Trump , Faux, and OAN, all of which are verified constant liars whose listeners are less informed after listening....calling any actual verifiable information "fake news".
Your idiocy would be laughable if this wasn't life and death information.

A quick reminder of hydrooxychloroquine side effects-
Blistering, peeling, loosening of the skin
blurred vision or other vision changes
chest discomfort, pain, or tightness
cough or hoarseness
dark urine
decreased urination
defective color vision
diarrhea
difficulty breathing
difficulty seeing at night
dizziness or fainting
fast, pounding, uneven heartbeat
feeling that others are watching you or controlling your behavior
feeling that others can hear your thoughts
feeling, seeing, or hearing things that are not there
fever with or without chills
general feeling of tiredness or weakness
headache
inability to move the eyes
increased blinking or spasms of the eyelid
joint or muscle pain
large, hive-like swelling on the face, eyelids, lips, tongue, throat, hands, legs, feet, and sex organs
loss of hearing
lower back or side pain
noisy breathing
painful or difficult urination
red irritated eyes
red skin lesions, often with a purple center
severe mood or mental changes
sore throat sores, ulcers, or white spots on the lips or in the mouth
sticking out of the tongue
stomach pain
swelling of the feet or lower legs
swollen or painful glands
trouble with breathing, speaking, or swallowing
uncontrolled twisting movements of the neck, trunk, arms, or legs
unusual behavior
unusual bleeding or bruising
unusual facial expressions
unusual tiredness or weakness
yellow eyes or skin
death

Edit:oh, now I get it. I've now read Giuliani told Trump this crap works, and of course trump trusts him over the medical community or scientific studies...as do .02% of doctors if this opinion piece isn't pure *lies like OAN trades in. Remember, they are essentially a subsidiary of Pravda. It will be interesting to find out how many people pushing the untested hydroxychloroquine recently invested in companies that make it.
Btw-Giuliani had his Twitter account suspended for lying and claiming hydro has 100% effectiveness at eradicating covid19 despite zero evidence to support that claim and tons to refute it.

100000-6000000 American citizens dead....great job.
>$2000000000 for just round 1 of the bailouts (socialism), with Trump indicating it will be up to $6000000000 or more to pay for his lack of quick action....with at least one more round of bailouts after that.
Local leaders were told to fend for themselves, find your own supplies and equipment, then once they did, Trump's administration moved in and outbid the state's to add those supplies to the federal stockpiles that he won't ship to blue states.
Sure Bobby, it's the Democrats complaints that put us here, not Trump's lack of action.
Um...no. Trump didn't "take care of those" rules and laws, he took care of the protections that avoided a pandemic under Obama by shrinking the programs until he could drowned them in a bathtub, then drowning them.

A study just published in a French medical journal provides new evidence that hydroxychloroquine does not appear to help the immune system clear the coronavirus from the body. Other studies show deadly reactions when taken with diabetes medications, and horrific side effects. Also, we can't get much if it turns out to be helpful in limited use, India made it illegal to export.

Trump's not wrong 100% of the time....sometimes he's sleeping. When he's awake and speaking or acting, he's wrong over 80% of the time, but ask him or those of your ilk, he's 100% right 100% of the time. You know that can't be 1/2 true.

Heep you head up Trump ass and drink his Kool Aid on the way to the Trump rally, and be sure to give all those other heroes there a big appreciative hug for standing up against the libtards....maybe a nice sloppy kiss too...trust me, it's safe, and you can take hydroxychloroquine if you're scared....just don't worry if you have these possibly permanent side effects....
Blistering, peeling, loosening of the skin
blurred vision or other vision changes
chest discomfort, pain, or tightness
cough or hoarseness
dark urine
decreased urination
defective color vision
diarrhea
difficulty breathing
difficulty seeing at night
dizziness or fainting
fast, pounding, uneven heartbeat
feeling that others are watching you or controlling your behavior
feeling that others can hear your thoughts
feeling, seeing, or hearing things that are not there
fever with or without chills
general feeling of tiredness or weakness
headache
inability to move the eyes
increased blinking or spasms of the eyelid
joint or muscle pain
large, hive-like swelling on the face, eyelids, lips, tongue, throat, hands, legs, feet, and sex organs
loss of hearing
lower back or side pain
noisy breathing
painful or difficult urination
red irritated eyes
red skin lesions, often with a purple center
severe mood or mental changes
sore throat sores, ulcers, or white spots on the lips or in the mouth
sticking out of the tongue
stomach pain
swelling of the feet or lower legs
swollen or painful glands
trouble with breathing, speaking, or swallowing
uncontrolled twisting movements of the neck, trunk, arms, or legs
unusual behavior
unusual bleeding or bruising
unusual facial expressions
unusual tiredness or weakness
yellow eyes or skin

And don't feel bad when it doesn't help fight covid 19, just blame Obama, that solves everything.
*facepalm

If everyone somehow isolates and we get down to only only 10 new cases a day, and we let everyone out, that only resets the clock to February with the addition of a million or so people already infected and immune. Everything goes back to shit in another couple months. People's behavior changing will help slow the spread, but will not prevent it. There's plenty you can do outside the home a safe distance from other people with minimal risk, certainly less than just going to shop for food. It's ridiculous they are shutting down beaches where it's simple to walk 20' away from anybody else. To limit crowds just close down parking spaces.

Antibody tests should allow recovered people back into regular life, but the only way we get a lot of recovered people is to have a lot of sick people first. Keep the elderly and high risk people confined, and let everyone else out with reasonable precautions(no gatherings over 20, etc). The only other alternative is a 6-12 month lockdown and 100% testing, which is simply never going to happen. You would still have to lock down the borders until the rest of the world has it under control too.

So wait...is it her dancing like a cute anime girl for attention that you say isn't a choice, or is it demeaning women who make different choices than yours (hers) in the name of feminism that isn't a choice, or are you saying there are no choices and all behavior is culturally driven so out of our hands?

Doing crimes is a choice, and one not monopolized by minorities. It may be your best option in your particular circumstances, but it's never the only option, it is definitely a choice.

Ppft, I say. Then why don't people all act the same in a given culture?
Culture may make certain choices socially acceptable or not, or personally beneficial or not, but you are responsible for your choices. Yes, you really choose, cultural acceptance and consequences may be part of how you form your decision, or not, but they don't make your decisions, they inform them. If culture was the only deciding factor, we would still be living in the bronze age where a girl this age would have no viable choice but to have had a few children by now and would likely be dead from complications of childbirth. Fortunately, many have chosen to ignore or contradict cultural norms so we have progressed as a society.

Lol.
I agree, Republicans don't have a monopoly on unethical and immoral behavior, but if it's a contest, they are not just "winning", it's a 98-2 blowout.

Democrats-comedien Al Franken voluntarily quits over distasteful but obvious comedy photos taken on a comedy tour
Republicans- line up and link arms in support of blatantly incestuous serial child harasser Trump (read what he publicly said about going backstage at his beauty pageants, and his daughter) and others like pedophile Roy Moore

Did Clinton repeatedly fly on Epstien's planes to charity events? It seems he did but has acknowledged it, saying he knew nothing about the allegations against Epstein at the time.
Did Trump repeatedly party with Epstein, including parties full of very young girls and no other male guests? It seems he did, as he once acknowledged in an interview saying “I’ve known Jeff for 15 years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side,” years before he started lying and claiming he didn't know him at all.

Let it all come out, then let's compare.

Thanks.
I agree with your comment too. We said the pledge in kindergarten, and would have been punished severely for that behavior even at that age. It's sickening that the "leader of the free world" doesn't have the decorum expected of a 5 year old. Kappernick should make a commercial out of it, juxtaposing his behavior with Trump's, asking the question, "who's disrespecting America?".