via dailyKos

In a turnaround, where McCain was slightly edging the Dem cadidates previously, either Dem candidate would beat McCain today in the new LA Times/Bloomberg poll.

May 1-8, 2008 +/-3%
           May (Feb)

Clinton     47  (40)
McCain      38  (46)
Don't know  11   (9)

Obama       46  (42)
McCain      40  (44)
Don't know   9   (9)

LA Times:

"Although there is such infighting now between the two Democratic candidates, we are finding that both Democrats are beating McCain, and this could be attributed to the weakening of the economy," said Times Polling Director Susan Pinkus, who supervised the survey.

For example, among the 78% of voters who said they believe the economy has slid into a recession, 52% would vote for Obama, compared with 32% for McCain. A Clinton-McCain matchup showed nearly identical results.

The poll was based on telephone interviews with 2,208 adults nationwide -- 1,986 of them registered voters -- several days before and after Tuesday's primaries in Indiana and North Carolina, which Clinton and Obama split

We knew going in that McCain would be the most competitive of the GOP candidates, but that's not the same thing as winning the election. Fundamentals still matter, and the fundamentals will not be in the Republicans' favor this fall. Take a look at the graph.

McCain remains competitive because of his showing among older voters and independents -- constituencies both parties are vying to win. McCain leads Clinton among independents and is essentially tied with Obama.

Older voters and generational change will be a theme of the election, like it or not. So will independents, because no one wants to be a Republican. But as Chuck Todd astutely observed on primary day, NC looks more like the future than Pennsylvania. And when the question turns to policy, direction of the country, the economy, health care and Iraq, the senior senator from Arizona (R) is going to have his hands full convincing the country that his policies are not just more Bush, and that he can chart a path to the future that makes sense.

After all, the economy is not his strong suit, and he's a man of "the twentieth century, my century". McCain will win among voters who want to chart a path to the 20th Century... but if that's the case he makes, he'll lose the election.