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Why I’m ALL-IN On Tesla Stock

bobknight33 says...

Duly noted.

Sift animosity aside, given and taken. I truly desire all to succeed.

Your statements about the economy as a whole applies to all, whether they diversify or solely own just 3 stocks or less.


I don't fear a crash of 87 or 2008. But your are right the ground beneath us is shaking. Having belief in our leaders and FED to do the the right thing is a is half harted. Even if they choose a proper corrective path it will be a bumpy ride.



You are right I am forward thinking and willing to take a few hard bumps over the next 10 years. I believe the upside is worth this risk.


I don't want a japan crash that took 25+ years to recover, or a 1929 crash which took 10 years and war to recover.

Every hard crash recovers, eventually.

If things go bad I will exit. Granted no one has perfect timing and neither do I. Will I loose 20 30% probably.

I do watch markets daily.


I'm 60 with 2 years left on the house mortgage. I will have a GE pension and hopefully some SS. Granted inflation can eat that 4K/month away but it will still help. Also I would continue to work.

And if that's not enough at least the house will be paid for and I will eat PB and J. or rice and beans.

StukaFox said:

Bob, please read this carefully. I know we fuck around a lot here, but I 100% honestly don't want to see you get hurt financially.

Obviously, if you believe in TSLA, I understand you putting your money where your mouth is (full disclosure: I'm holding POTX and CURLF, so I'm on the same page with what I'm saying on this) but PLEASE don't bet money you don't have on TSLA.

“At 10-times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback (P/E 10, my note), I must pay you 100% of revenues for 10-straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. It also assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company.

That assumes zero expenses, which is hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that expects you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10-years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate.

Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those underlying assumptions are? You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes.

What were you thinking?”

-- Scott McNealy was the CEO of Sun Microsystems
2002

At the peak of the Dot-Com, roughly 30 stocks in the NASDAQ 100 traded above 10 P/E. Today ALL stocks in the DAQ do: the average P/E is ~25.5.

TSLA is at a P/E of 175.

There is no American economy. There hasn't been since since October 3 of 2008. Things got catastrophically worse on September 17th of 2019 when the repo market came within hours of completely locking up in a catastrophe that would have made AIG look like a rounding error. The Fed was forced to firehose astronomical amounts of money into the system to keep this from happening and this was before Covid.

In Jan of 2021, there was $2.6 TRILLION in Zombie Debt out there. That's $2.6 TRILLION on the verge of default at 2021 interest rates. The Fed is now in a horrific position: raise rates and watch massive defaults explode like financial nukes, or keep rates steady and watch inflation implode the economy.

People don't understand how bad this is and how much worse it can get. If the Fed has to raise rates by 500 BP -- and Christ fucking help us if they do -- the first order defaults will be the worst in Capitalist history and the second and third order effects could very well be the nightmare scenario we came within 36 hours of in 2008.

Save your money, Bob. Cash is king. And fuck BTC.

New Rule: First Lady Barack Obama | Real Time (HBO)

newtboy says...

You are one of that (lowball) 5%.
Trump is one of those 5%ers.

Almost all republicans think Biden’s performance is head and shoulders above what they claimed they expected.
You said the economy would crash.
You said unemployment would explode.
You said China and Russia would overpower us and take over.
You said he would fold for Putin and Xi.
Not one of those things have happened….not in the real world, maybe in Republican delusions.

I ask you, do you think your predictions are better or worse than reality? (We know the truth, don’t bother lying).

Biden has undoubtedly done better than any Republican predicted, way better. That you all still answer that he’s doing worse only shows there are no honest Republicans. You set a low bar….so low he could crawl like a reptile and be above it, but he’s walking upright and capable of jumping, unlike the previous president who needs help on stairs, ramps, inclines, etc and burrowed deep under that same bar.

I think he’s doing about as well as can be expected considering the fractured, divided, crumbling, sick, eroding country the last president left him, better in some areas, worse in some. Since his only expectation by most was “beat Trump”, it’s utterly ridiculous to pretend he’s not already 100% successful. 😉

bobknight33 said:

@newtboy Are you 1 of those 5%ters who think Biden performance is better than expected? Talk about setting a low bar.

The Death Couloir - Mont Blanc

newtboy says...

Or not. Seems they’ll be covered in rocks naturally within days. Leave them. No SAR, you get to feed wildlife or become scenery. Just like Everest. A few bodies might make a good deterrent for anyone on the fence or over confident.

Reminds me of when I was in New Zealand. Our flight out of Milford was cancelled for low clouds, and some Japanese tourists took the plane sightseeing around Milford fjord. They crashed into the fjord, hundreds of meters deep. The family wanted to send robots to recover the bodies, but I couldn’t fathom (no pun intended) why. For a fraction of the cost the entire family could visit them in New Zealand every few years for eternity….no brainer!

I’ll never understand you humans.

StukaFox said:

No, I'm all in favor of Morons--

However, I'm not in favor of the amazing people in SAR putting their lives on the line to recover the smears lefts on rocks that used to be these people. Living in WA, we have a lot of "really wants to kill you" wilderness here, including North Cascades Nat'l Park and Olympic Nat'l Park. Every single year, someone's predated body needs to be pulled out of the middle of one of these places by either a helo crew or the poor bastards who have to hike a bazillion miles to pack out what's left of Chuckles.

The number of SAR people who've died here is sobering. Every single one of them could have just walked away, but they went into danger's way to save people too stupid to save themselves. Sometimes their reward is to be spit on, like the ranger at Yellowstone who was berated by the father of a kid who dived into a hot spring after his dog (by "kid", I mean adult kid, not Timmy). The father wanted his kid's body recovered, no matter what. The ranger had to explain that the kid completely dissolved about five minutes after he fell in. The father then refused to speak to the ranger any further.

This shit doesn't happen in a vacuum. Someone's going to have to look at these human bird droppings and see that shit in their sleep for the rest of their lives.

The Death Couloir - Mont Blanc

newtboy says...

No problem whatsoever with waivers. Are you worried that too many brain dead slugs will Darwin themselves? Why? Do you foresee some future shortage of morons?
The problem is trying to make everything safe for morons….how are we supposed to cull them if you remove ALL evolutionary pressures.
Idiocracy was a documentary from the near future.

Besides, if they’re dumb enough for all that, they’re dumb enough to know that if they can’t see the danger, the danger can’t see them, so just walk the cliff edge with your towel wrapped around your head, for safety.

If I want to risk my life climbing an active rock slide, that should be my and the recovery team my estate hires’s business. The idea that suicide is against the law is moronic to me….the only crime that is prosecuted only against those who fail at committing it. Suicide by overt stupidity or intentional high risk lifestyles not only doesn’t bother me, I fully support it as long as it doesn’t involuntarily endanger others.

BTW, the skier death doesn’t sound sad one bit to me, she died doing what she loved, and part of that love was undoubtedly of the danger level of skiing out of bounds, the rush of skiing with a 1000ft drop as the punishment for crashing (or stepping too far). I would think she probably really enjoyed 99% of her last day. Definitely the kind of horrific, quick death I hope for. Way better than prolonged disease or decline.

StukaFox said:

Therein lies the problem: most people HUGELY over-estimate their 'Acceptable risk level'.

- "This crumbling cliff edge above a 1,000 foot gorge is the PERFECT place for a selfie!" (one of the saddest deaths in WA was when one of the best skiers in the state decided to look over the edge of a cornice. It gave way and she fell almost a thousand feet to her death.)

- "100f and 0% humidity? What a perfect time to go for a 10 mile, uphill hike with only a can of Coke and some salty beef jerky!"

- "10 essentials? Beer, pot, lighter, cellphone, hat, earbuds, that little map they give you at the visitor center, more beer and is that 10?"

- "I can read a map just fine! This off-trail hike through a rugged part of the park will be breeze!"

- "I can get signal anywhere in this enormous national forest!"

- "Aww! What a cute little baby bear!"

- "Can we get an Uber at the bottom of this ravine?"

- "Let's go swimming! This raging river of snow melt will be the perfect place to cool off!"

etc etc etc

Meanwhile In Russia

BSR (Member Profile)

I Crashed My Plane

newtboy says...

Also accounts for the lack of any fuel leaking from the mangled wings at the crash.
He’s gonna have some splainin’ to do!

fuzzyundies said:

He absolutely faked it. Consider:

- Happened to wear a skydiving parachute for the first time on YT on this flight
- Fuel selector line to the right wing was visibly disconnected, accounting for an empty wing, short intended flight, and the lack of fire
- Left door was ajar when prop started to sputter
- Down/up pitch inputs during "engine failure" add drag and slow the plane, whereas basic pilot training is to put the nose down to gain airspeed

This pilot had some good points.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=724JxkwWqA8

I Crashed My Plane

Pilot has close call with a train

How to open a door - Finnish instructional video from 1979

newtboy says...

Way too complicated. I’ll never get all that right. I’m just sticking with the Kool Aid Man method of crashing through the wall. Simple, but effective…and it works on left and right hand walls.

newtboy (Member Profile)

Eagle Crashes Through Car Window

siftbot says...

Tags for this video have been changed from 'Eagle, Crashes, Car Window, Daily Dose' to 'Eagle, Crashes, Car Window, Daily Dose, daily dose of internet, ddoi' - edited by lucky760

BSR (Member Profile)

newtboy (Member Profile)

Eagle Crashes Through Car Window

ant says...

Clickbait! Um, there's more than an eagle crashing through a car window. So, what happens after the crash?



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