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Unbelievably Bad Beat at $1 Million Buy-in Poker Tournament

modulous says...

Can anyone figure the odds of one of these two men winning with a flush


There are 1,712,304 possible boards. 1,637,884 result in a tie. 74,420 of them result in one of them winning. There is a winner 4.34% of the time which is a probability of approximately 1 in 25 or 24:1 against.

So this isn't an incredibly bad beat even for poker, this scenario has played out countless times, and I bet it happened at other times in this tournament (if we count more than just Aces v Aces). It just feels bad given the stakes, which are pretty high for most pro high stakes poker players. Imagine instead this. You hold KcKs and your opponent goes all-in so you call. He curses (hoping you'd fold) Pokerstove tells me KK against two random cards wins 82% of the time. However he turns over Kd2c. This is a 95% chance of winning. The flop comes: Jh 4d 8s. Your probability of winning is now 99.7%. Then comes 2s - it's OK you still have over 95% chance of winning, unless...2d.

No, THIS is the lowest flying pass ever (flag pickup)

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