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Is Climate Change Just A Lot Of Hot Air?

newtboy says...

Yes, you did say all that, but you also said none of that is a problem, at least not one to be really worried about. To me, that sounds a lot like climate change denial 3.0, where 1.0 was 'it's not happening at all, don't panic', 2.0 was 'it's happening, but it's natural and normal, don't panic' and 3.0 is 'it's human caused, but no problem, don't panic'. All of those are arguments designed to stall, not to be correct. If I'm reading you wrong, I apologize, but I've heard that argument before from those definitely in that camp.

If the IPCC says it won't be disastrous, yes, we would disagree, because I say it already is, and so have they in their summaries of their last few reports. Just abnormal drought alone is disastrous in many places worldwide already, as is increased flooding in some areas. I did not read the entire PDF's, only what you quoted because they were only linked as downloads/files, and I don't download files from sites I don't recognize.

I linked the first google search pages that came up with water/glacial data, not the other dozen that said the same, or near the same thing, not the NOVA on glacial retreat that said the same thing, not the movie on the same topic with photographic proof of the retreats-Chasing Ice. You ignored that they did list their source for the 2/3 of Chinese cities low on water and the 50% loss of glacial mass per decade as the Chinese military and claimed they were source less so easily dismissed.
As for the diatoms and shellfish, I've seen numerous studies on them, and again just grabbed the first one that came up in a search with data. You seemed to dismiss it as well, but it's not alone. In one snail study I saw, the woman said the last few years it had become nearly impossible to get measurements because the snail shells literally turn to paste in her fingers and weighed nearly nothing! I'm glad to read now that you don't disagree that it's an issue, you only think it's not severe?

I'm not holding my breath on fusion or fission, we've heard the 'we're only 5 years away from fission/fusion' line before about as often as 'Iran is only 2 years away from having a nuclear bomb', but we can agree on wind and solar, except I say it is great for base load, you just need to pair it with micro hydro storage (pump water uphill with surplus solar/wind, then run micro hydro at night). Small solar/wind also decentralizes production, safeguarding from terrorism, and is quite cost effective. Mine paid for itself in well under 10 years.

My issue with your position is that what we do today just with CO2 production reduction won't really effect the atmosphere for 20-200 years (the accepted lifespan of 65-85% of atmospheric CO2, the remaining 15-35% takes thousands of years to be trapped) and that's only IF the ocean CO2 sink continues functioning, so we're already well past the point of avoiding moderate climate change. Without quick action, feedback loops like methane and/or ice sheets melting make the problem exponentially larger and difficult/impossible to manage at all. It may already be too late even if we cut to zero CO2 tomorrow, but it's certainly too late to avoid more, massive, unsolvable global issues if we don't even mitigate them before 2050.

Let's not get into the quagmire of global dimming from sulfur in coal actually mitigating a large part of expected global warming by reflecting sunlight. I've yet to hear a plan or study involving that variable.

Virgin Atlantic pilot shows off for the "ladies"

The seatbelt light is ON...

thepaulm says...

This video has been discussed on several pilot forums. People have pointed out that this also looks like a failed go-around without adding appropriate power. If the pilot was near stall when he pulled up, and the left wing stalled first, this is exactly what would happen. Very scary if that much turbulence can stick around for that long after a Blackhawk has departed.

Greece's Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis on BBC's Newsnigh

RedSky says...

Nothing is good about this situation and there is no reason to think this will end in anything but Greek default.

Greece's government, elected by its citizens ran up a large and unsustainable debt which was masked by easy credit before the GFC and fraudulent accounting.

There were many contributors. Corruption, hugely wasteful state owned enterprises, joining the euro zone before they were ready to lose the ability to devalue their currency and lower interest rates, and flagrant tax evasion.

But as a country they're collectively responsible for not demanding the necessary reforms of their politicians to ensure they were not vulnerable to a credit crisis when the GFC hit and lenders began to look more scrupulously at individual European countries rather than Europe as a whole. Equally, Italy is responsible for voting Berlusconi into power for every year their economy recorded negative growth under his government. Spain is responsible for not providing sufficient oversight to bad bank lending leading a huge indebting bailout package.

Some of Syriza's reforms are reasonable. Tackling corruption and trying to break up oligopolies are worthy ideas, but they are unlikely to be easy and yield any immediate benefit. Raising the minimum wage and planning to hire back state workers as they have already promised will almost guarantee they will cease to receive EU funding/ECB assistance and later IMF funding.

The simple truth from the point of view of Germany and other austerity backing Nordic countries is if they buy their loans (and in effect transfer money to Greece) without austerity stipulations, there will be no pressure or guarantee that structural reforms that allow Greece to function independently will ever be implemented. These lender government and by extension its people have no interest in transferring wealth to Greece if it stalls its reforms.

Yes fire sales of state owned enterprises suck but the likely alternative at this point if the Troika lending is stopped is that all other lending stops and Greece defaults. At that point there would be mass loss of state sector jobs and sky-rocketing unemployment relative to what is now being experienced. It would take years of reform for the Greek government to be lend-worthy again. There is simply no trust for any alternative to austerity on the part of north Europe.

Currently Greece has reported positive growth in the past quarter and excluding debt repayments is running a budget surplus. Realistically, yes they cannot pay back the 180% of GDP. The likely way forward is after several more years of real reform they (+ Spain & Portugal) would get better terms from the EU as politically, leaders in Germany and elsewhere will be able to make the case that their objective has been achieved.

The ECB's QE package is in some ways already part of this. What I guarantee won't happen is electing Syriza to oppose bailout terms helping to secure that. Germany et al will quite rightly see that if they acquiesce to Greece they will encourage other populist parties in Spain, Portugal, Italy and France and stall reforms.

Could Germany and others in theory provide a huge cash infusion to Greece, Spain and Portugal now? Sure. And those parties would be voted out in the next election and the terms reversed. Even with the relative stinginess of current loan terms, the likes of UKIP and the National Front with their anti-EU stance, have gained political standing in the EU parliament and will likely see huge boosts in upcoming domestic elections.

A-10 attacks taliban positions in Afghanistan

newtboy says...

I disagree. A-10's do fly low, often below AA capabilities to shoot, or even radar's ability to 'see' them.
They are designed to be tank busters, so not really the ideal equipment against militia, but would actually be useful against Iran and N Korea (after we smart bomb their AA emplacements and radar...just in case) which both have tons of older tanks, the kind the A-10 is designed to destroy. They worked great against Saddam, and he had the largest tank army in the world and plenty of AA (at the beginning)!

EDIT: Since no one else did, I'll have to mention my favorite thing about the A-10, which is that it's 'gun' is so powerful that it must be used in small bursts, because it significantly slows the plane down and could cause it to stall! That's just awesome!

Mikus_Aurelius said:

I think the problem is that we never know who we'll be fighting next. A-10s fly low and slow, and would be completely vulnerable to an enemy with moderate AA capabilities. Sure, maybe we're "lucky" and the next war is against a ragtag militia in the mountains that can't shoot them down. But if we butt heads with Iran or North Korea, the A-10s all have to stay home.

Garfunkel and Oates "The Fade Away"

eric3579 says...

We've been on a bunch of dates
I weigh debates that this creates
And hate that state of forced introspection
We traded wit, we swapped some spit,
You fingered me a little bit
But we never really had a connection

You did nothing wrong, I have no excuse
Just my intuition telling me we shouldn't reproduce

I know I have to end it
But pretend to just suspend it
By contending that I'm busy all week
I let the foregone linger on
Text back with an emoticon
Withdraw from you by being oblique

Inside I know my tactics just delay it
But I'd do anything so I don't have to say it

I'll draw this out forever like it's Vietnam
Then one day I'll be gone like Bambi's mom Awww

Cause there's the right thing to do
Then there's what I'm gonna do
There's so much I should say
But instead... I do the fade away

Now I'm fading like chalk on a sidewalk
Or the polio virus after Jonas Salk
Like a Jewish guy at Sizzler on Yom Kippur
The Whig party post Millard Fillmore

The erection of a man on antidepressants
The cast of Diff'rent Strokes after adolescence
Reproductive rights below the Mason Dixon
Native Americans after the barter systems
Your thyroid gland after Hashimoto
The family in the Back to the Future photo
Yeah I fade away

We say that men are asshole who don't communicate
We revel in our victimhood and amplify our hate
We find ways to be indignant like it's a sport
Then dissect their malignance with the views we distort

The way men break up may be sloppy and terse
What they do is bad, but what we do is worse

We pretend to ourselves it's the nice thing to do
To let you down gently by just not ever telling you
And deep down we know it's the worst way to play it
But we are what we have... huge pussies

And women are hypocrites
Especially ones in comedy bands
We see your faults but not our own
Then we wonder why we're all alone

We fill you up with maybe's, excuses and stalls
But like a baby in China... it's better to have balls

Not the Good Wife type like Christine Baranski
So I'll pull out and leave like I'm Roman Polanski

Cause there's the right thing to do
Then there's what I'm gonna do
There's so much I should say
But instead... I do the fade away

Like Verbal Kint fading into Kaiser Soze
The rights in Arizona for a guy named Jose
Opportunities for a college grad
The love between your mom and dad
Gonna Peter out like a gay Cetera
Iranian relations since the Regan era
Black Nike sales after Heaven's Gate
Summer Camp attendance at Penn State
The name Adolph after World War Two
Like Debbie Gibson's pop career, Out of the Blue
Yeah I fade away

Cause I don't wanna get to know you
I just want to blow you... off

Exciting backcountry airstrip landing

SFOGuy says...

LOL. Not as wide on the approach shot and more protected by trees than the 8th hole (joking).

The more I watch this approach the more insane I think it is.
And I can't see another more elegant way in given his constraints of how fast he has to fly to keep the plane in the air without stalling and how steeply he can descend at any one place.

Payback said:

Looks more like the 8th hole at Augusta.

Daily Show: Australian Gun Control = Zero Mass Shootings

scheherazade says...

Not entirely cut and dry.
+ Gun suicide fell
+ Mass shootings fell.
- Gun homicide in general didn't fall

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_politics_in_Australia#Measuring_the_effects_of_firearms_laws_in_Australia

"Some researchers have found a significant change in the rate of firearm suicides after the legislative changes. For example, Ozanne-Smith et al. (2004)[33] in the journal Injury Prevention found a reduction in firearm suicides in Victoria, however this study did not consider non-firearm suicide rates. Others have argued that alternative methods of suicide have been substituted. De Leo, Dwyer, Firman & Neulinger,[34] studied suicide methods in men from 1979 to 1998 and found a rise in hanging suicides that started slightly before the fall in gun suicides. As hanging suicides rose at about the same rate as gun suicides fell, it is possible that there was some substitution of suicide methods. It has been noted that drawing strong conclusions about possible impacts of gun laws on suicides is challenging, because a number of suicide prevention programs were implemented from the mid-1990s onwards, and non-firearm suicides also began falling.[35]

In 2005 the head of the New South Wales Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, Don Weatherburn,[36] noted that the level of legal gun ownership in New South Wales increased in recent years, and that the 1996 legislation had had little to no effect on violence. Professor Simon Chapman, former co-convenor of the Coalition for Gun Control, complained that his words "will henceforth be cited by every gun-lusting lobby group throughout the world in their perverse efforts to stall reforms that could save thousands of lives".[37] Weatherburn responded, "The fact is that the introduction of those laws did not result in any acceleration of the downward trend in gun homicide. They may have reduced the risk of mass shootings but we cannot be sure because no one has done the rigorous statistical work required to verify this possibility. It is always unpleasant to acknowledge facts that are inconsistent with your own point of view. But I thought that was what distinguished science from popular prejudice."[38]"

-scheherazade

Father and Daughter Watch The Conjuring

Chairman_woo says...

I think it's mostly about adrenaline & dopamine highs . It's the same reason some people still manage to "enjoy" rollercoasters or skydiving and the like despite basically being frightened shitless by them.

All depends where your threshold for fear lies. Up to a point your physiology rewards you for what it interprets as taking a worthwhile risk, past that point it punishes you with an unpleasant response. e.g. you might get a good feeling from driving fairly fast, but if you push too far that good feeling turns to blood chilling terror.

The key is that everyone is tuned differently, some people get stressed out walking to the shops, others have to jump off buildings to get any sort of buzz. And naturally further to that we all interpret the level of risk differently in different situations. There appears to be quite the split between how people react to intense physical and cerebral stimuli.

Personally I don't really like being shit up by films like in the above, but then when I feel the back end sliding on a motorbike or drop a light aircraft into a stall I usually end up giggling like a little girl. (within reason)

As I understand it It's an evolutionary thing, we need some people who thrive on risk and go exploring and others to stay alive and raise the kids & naturally all of this is taken wildly out of context by our modern life styles. End result: some people watch scary films to feel alive and others have to race powerboats.

I'm sure there are other more emotional/metaphysical reasons too like our inherent fascinations with mortality, cruelty, paranormal etc. (and anything else we don't relate to in everyday life). But the fear "high" is definitely a big factor I think.

eric3579 said:

Although fun to watch the reactions ill never understand the appeal to movies that just scare the shit out of you.

Optical Illusion Painting

A-10 Thunderbolt II "The Gun"

SFOGuy says...

Not for a bit; Congress is stalling the retirement---
It's pretty clear that no reasonable replacement will be ready to stand in for the A-10 if it's retired, so the Air Force is being forced to suck it up and keep it in service a bit longer.

ChaosEngine said:

"Always a welcome sight to US and allied forces on the ground"
Well, not always....

Warthog is a cool plane, but apparently it's being retired because Lockheed Martin need more money or something...

Last Week Tonight with John Oliver: Climate Change Debate

Asmo says...

Which is the classic last stand of the denier, conspiracy theorist or indeed religious person, and one that is essentially unassailable.

"I believe what I believe and nothing you say or demonstrate can change it..."

You don't actually provide any counter evidence, you just put down the evidence as completely unreliable because of it's source. It's a very effective way to convince yourself that the debate is being balanced if you can knock down some of those 97% who overwhelmingly disagree with you...

The problem is that while only 3% of scientists refuse to be convinced, a very large portion of very powerful people and politicians agree with them, and have a disproportionate amount of power to stymie change. Perhaps they don't even ideologically agree, they may just not care if it effects their profits...

Either way, the debate goes round and nothing gets done. Stalling is as successful as denying...

Whether you believe or not, the most effective way to get something done is to put our environment before our profit margins anyway.

Trancecoach said:

Haha.. a .gov link is about as unreliable as you can get!

Google Project Ara - Modular Smartphone Prototype for $50

RedSky says...

This looks like something component chip makers will love and phone manufacturers will hate.

New phone versions nowadays come with 1-2 genuine improvements that people want, if that. If this takes off and people can just update the components as they come out, this will make a huge dent in their sales.

Suppose it comes down to execution and how many partners they can get on board. The issue with Google is they run a stupendous number of development projects but rarely fully commit to any idea. Some stall, some are half-heartedly supported, some are dropped or sold like Motorola.

Junkyard Turbo Chevy Datsun 240Z Autocross Thrash - Roadkill

enoch says...

i did some mural work years ago and they paid me some cash and a modified 77 280Z.

and when i say modified,i mean MODIFIED.
brand new straight 6 with a cam,1800 stall converter and porsche transmission and linkage.

it looked very similar to the 240 in this video.
was a total rust bucket.
the suspension was toast and the u-joints were all bad.
no muffler....just a straight pipe ..yeah..that baby was LOUD.
chug chug CHUG chug chug....
didnt even have a key for the ignition,started it with a screwdriver.

but holy hell could it move on a straight away.
mustang GT's were my favorite to embarrass.
i would stay with em till they hit 4th gear (round 50 mph) and i would hit second,chirp the tires and wave...buh bye....

man,now that i think about it...
how am i still alive?
damn car was a death trap.

Wingsuiters Chase Skiiers Down a Mountain, One Almost Dies

shveddy says...

Wingsuits have already been landed twice without a parachute: once into a giant pile of boxes and another French guy fell into some trees when he stalled out above a forest. Jeb Corliss skipped off a boulder and only broke his legs, which is close enough. However 76 people died - those are pretty shitty odds.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEP8juRSBRo
http://vimeo.com/50817449
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sFk6hxHIR0Q
http://www.blincmagazine.com/forum/wiki/Fatality_Statistics

So I stand by the notion that he was pretty darn close to dying - one might say that he was almost there.

But, if you guys really want to be the semantics police, here are some more illicit video titles for you guys to fix:

http://videosift.com/video/Almost-Died-Whoa-that-was-close-WHOA
http://videosift.com/video/Girl-nearly-gets-decapitated-for-a-photo
http://videosift.com/video/Day-9-Story-Time-How-I-Almost-Died
http://videosift.com/video/Near-death-trainspotter-47-secs

I agree that it's only a matter of time before someone survives another crash, particularly if it is into snow, but first keep in mind that those guys are in a dive and flying closer to 130-140mph and they are also flying head first. Taking a hit in that position would hardly ever be survivable.



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