Now THAT'S a Fire Sale!

You are absolutely right, the results of elections in Greece do not create an obligation for fiscal transfers from other European countries.

But that plays right into what Varoufakis has been saying for years, doesn't it? The program over the last seven years has reduced Greek output by a quarter, and thereby its ability to service and reduce its debt. The troika is offering more loans, loans that cannot be payed back, in return for a further reduction in Greece's ability to pay back those loans in the first place. Extend and pretend, all the way. Nevermind the humanitarian cost or the threat to democracy itself.

It is either counter-productive or aimed at a different goal entirely. Greece wants an end to those loans, and all the loss of sovereignty that comes with it, while the Eurogroup in particular wants to stick to a program that only increased Greece's dependency to a point where they can throw the entire country into unbearable misery at a moment's notice (e.g. cut ELA access).

Take the privatisation demands as an example. The program demands that Greece agrees to sell specific property at a specific price. Both parties are keenly aware that this price cannot be realised during a fire sale, yet they still demand a promise by the Greeks to do so. Any promise would be a lie and everyone knows it.

Same for the demanded specificity of Greece's plans. After decades of nepotism, a fresh government made up entirely of outsiders is supposed to draw up plans of more detail than any previous government came up with. And they cannot even rely on the bureaucracy, given that a great number of people in it are part of the nepotic system they are trying to undo in the first place.

Taxes, same thing. The first king of Greece (1832'ish) was a prince of Bavaria who was accompanied by his own staff of finance experts, and they failed miserably. Greece went through occupation, military junta and decades of nepotism, and the new government is supposed to fix that within months.

Those demands cannot be met. The Greeks know it, the troika knows it, the Eurogroup knows it.

Zizek called it the superego in his recent piece on Syriza/Greece:

"The ongoing EU pressure on Greece to implement austerity measures fits perfectly what psychoanalysis calls the superego. The superego is not an ethical agency proper, but a sadistic agent, which bombards the subject with impossible demands, obscenely enjoying the subject’s failure to comply with them. The paradox of the superego is that, as Freud saw clearly, the more we obey its demands, the more we feel guilty. Imagine a vicious teacher who assigns his pupils impossible tasks, and then sadistically jeers when he sees their anxiety and panic. This is what is so terribly wrong with the EU demands/commands: they do not even give Greece a chance – Greek failure is part of the game."

Aside from all that, the entire continent is in a recession. Not enough demand, not enough investment, unsustainable levels of unemployment. Greece was hit hardest, Greece was hit first. It's not the cause of the problem, it is the canary in the coal mine. And Italy is already looking very shaky...

@RedSky

Selling assets and, to a certain degree, the reduction of public employment is an unreasonable demand. There's too much controversy about the effects it has, with me being clearly biased to one side.

Privatisation of essential services (healthcare, public transport, electricity, water) is being opposed or even undone in significant parts of Europe, since it generally came with worse service at much higher costs and no accountability whatsoever. Therefore I see it as very reasonable for Syriza to stop the privatisation of their electricity grid and their railroad. There are, of course, unessentials that might be handed over to the private sector, but like Varoufakis said, not in the shape of a fire sale within a crisis. That'll only profit the usual scavengers, not the people.

Similarly, public employment. There's good public employment (essential services, administration) and "bad" public employment. Troika demands included the firing of cleaning personnel, who were replaced by a significantly more expensive private service. And a Greek court decision ruled the firing as flat out illegal. For Syriza to not hire them back would not only have been unreasonable financially as well as socially, it would have been a violation of a court order. Same for thousands of others who were fired illegally, according to a ruling by the Greek Supreme Court.

Troika demands are all too often against Greek or even European law, and while the previous governments were fine with being criminals, Syriza might actually be inclined to uphold the law.


On the issue of reforms, I would argue that the previous governments did bugger all to establish working institutions. Famously, the posts of department heads of the tax collection agency were auctioned for money, even under the last government. Everything is in shambles, with no intent of changing anything that would have undermined the nepotic rules of the five families. Syriza's program has been very clear about the changes they plan to institute, so if it really was the intent of the troika to see meaningful reform the way it is being advocated to their folks at home, they would be in support of Syriza.

Interventions by the troika have crashed the health care system, the educational system and the pension system. Public pension funds were practically wiped out during the first haircut in 2012, creating a hole of about 20 billion Euros in the next five years.

I would like to address the issue of taxation specifically. Luxembourg adopted as a business model to be an enabler of tax evasion, even worse than Switzerland. In charge at that time was none other than Jean-Claude Juncker, who was just elected President of the European Commission. He's directly involved in tax evasion on a scale of hundreds of billions of Euros every year. How is the troika to have any credibility in this matter with him in charge?

Similarly, German politicians are particularly vocal about corruption and bribery in Greece. Well, who are the biggest sources of bribery in Greece? German corporations. Just last week there was another report of a major German arms manufacturer who paid outrageous bribes to officials in Greece. As much as I support the fight against corruption and bribery, some humility would suit them well.


As for the GDP growth in Greece: I think it's a fluke. The deflation skewers the numbers to a point where I can't take them seriously until the complete dataset is available. Might be growth, might not be. Definatly not enough to fight off a humanitarian crisis.

Surpluses. If everyone was a zealous as Germany, the deficit would in fact be considerably narrower, which is a good thing. Unfortunatly, it would have been a race to the bottom. Germany could only suppress wage growth, and subsequently domestic demand, so radically, because the other members of the Eurozone were eager to expand. They ran higher-than-average growth, which allowed Germany to undercut them without going into deflation. Nowadays, Germany still has below-target wage growth, so the only way for Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy to gain competetiveness against Germany is to go into deflation. That's where we are in Europe: half a continent in deflation. With all its side effects of mass unemployment (11%+ in Europe, after lots of trickery), falling demand, falling investment, etc. Not good. Keynes' idea of an International Clearing Union might work better, especially since we already use similar concepts within nations to balance regions.

Bond yields of Germany could not have spiked at the same time as those of the rest of the Eurozone. The legal requirements for pension funds, insurance funds, etc demand a high percentage of safe bonds, and when the peripheral countries were declared unsafe, they had nowhere to go but Germany. Also, a bet against France is quite a risk, but a bet against Germany is downright foolish. Still, supply of safe bonds is tight right now, given the cuts all over the place. French yields are at historic lows, German yield is negative. Even Italian and Spanish yields were in the green as soon as Draghi said the ECB would do whatever it takes.

The current spike in Greek yields strikes me as a bet that there will be a face-off between the troika and Greece, with very few positive outcomes for the Greek economy in the short run.

QE: 100% agreement. Fistful of cash to citizens would not have solved any of the core issues of the Eurozone (highly unequal ULCs, systemic tax evasion, tax competition/undercutting, no European institutions, etc), but it would have been infinitely better than anything they did. If they were to put it on the table right now as a means to combat deflation, I'd say go for it. Take the helicopters airborne, as long as it's bottom-up and not trickle-down. Though to reliably increase inflation there would have to be widescale increases in wages. Not going to happen. Maybe if Podemos wins in Spain later his year.

Same for the last paragraph. The ECB could have stuffed the EIB to the brim, which in return could have funded highly beneficial and much needed projects, like a proper European electricity grid. Won't happen though. Debt is bad, even monetised debt during a deflation used purely for investments.

Nothing is good about this situation and there is no reason to think this will end in anything but Greek default.

Greece's government, elected by its citizens ran up a large and unsustainable debt which was masked by easy credit before the GFC and fraudulent accounting.

There were many contributors. Corruption, hugely wasteful state owned enterprises, joining the euro zone before they were ready to lose the ability to devalue their currency and lower interest rates, and flagrant tax evasion.

But as a country they're collectively responsible for not demanding the necessary reforms of their politicians to ensure they were not vulnerable to a credit crisis when the GFC hit and lenders began to look more scrupulously at individual European countries rather than Europe as a whole. Equally, Italy is responsible for voting Berlusconi into power for every year their economy recorded negative growth under his government. Spain is responsible for not providing sufficient oversight to bad bank lending leading a huge indebting bailout package.

Some of Syriza's reforms are reasonable. Tackling corruption and trying to break up oligopolies are worthy ideas, but they are unlikely to be easy and yield any immediate benefit. Raising the minimum wage and planning to hire back state workers as they have already promised will almost guarantee they will cease to receive EU funding/ECB assistance and later IMF funding.

The simple truth from the point of view of Germany and other austerity backing Nordic countries is if they buy their loans (and in effect transfer money to Greece) without austerity stipulations, there will be no pressure or guarantee that structural reforms that allow Greece to function independently will ever be implemented. These lender government and by extension its people have no interest in transferring wealth to Greece if it stalls its reforms.

Yes fire sales of state owned enterprises suck but the likely alternative at this point if the Troika lending is stopped is that all other lending stops and Greece defaults. At that point there would be mass loss of state sector jobs and sky-rocketing unemployment relative to what is now being experienced. It would take years of reform for the Greek government to be lend-worthy again. There is simply no trust for any alternative to austerity on the part of north Europe.

Currently Greece has reported positive growth in the past quarter and excluding debt repayments is running a budget surplus. Realistically, yes they cannot pay back the 180% of GDP. The likely way forward is after several more years of real reform they (+ Spain & Portugal) would get better terms from the EU as politically, leaders in Germany and elsewhere will be able to make the case that their objective has been achieved.

The ECB's QE package is in some ways already part of this. What I guarantee won't happen is electing Syriza to oppose bailout terms helping to secure that. Germany et al will quite rightly see that if they acquiesce to Greece they will encourage other populist parties in Spain, Portugal, Italy and France and stall reforms.

Could Germany and others in theory provide a huge cash infusion to Greece, Spain and Portugal now? Sure. And those parties would be voted out in the next election and the terms reversed. Even with the relative stinginess of current loan terms, the likes of UKIP and the National Front with their anti-EU stance, have gained political standing in the EU parliament and will likely see huge boosts in upcoming domestic elections.

And for you sir indeed, a hearty-handclasp. I would not personally give a thought to not having the Vatican produce one shred of evidence to the contrary and simply begin the end of their empire by any means necessary. Start with the wealthiest countries where they have a foothold and work your way down to the poorest.

Line the fucking carcasses of the city's ordained up for all to see outside The Cathedral of St. Patrick in NYC (now reclaimed for public use) and announce a fire sale next week at the Invasion of Vatican City.

>> ^messenger:

If this were put together with love by someone who wanted me to smile, I'd love it. But it was put together cynically by someone who wanted my money. It's the difference between a beautiful girl smiling at you, and a beautiful girl smiling at you and saying "$100 for all night". They're very, very different things. Even Tubechoppped.

If she is in fact "beautiful" and only one hundred bucks for the night, that's a goddamn, pussy fire sale and I for one would jump on that deal, of course at that price it will probably burn when I pee the next morning though. Also, way to put a big old smiley face on big brother constantly watching you and every thing you do.

>> ^AnimalsForCrackers:

>> ^deathcow:
How have shooters not evolved? if they haven't... can they?? I don't feel like I am playing the same game at all. I am in a giant open terrain in vehicles armed to the tooth, or I dive out and go on foot sniping from the bushes, or I plant C4 bombs and hide in the bushes waiting... or I dive off a wall and stab someone below. Quake-1 was an utterly different experience. It is evolving into very real situations from the surreal cartoon world.

The multiplayer FPS has certainly evolved since Quake. No dispute there. My contention is that they STOPPED evolving and have hit what I call an "innovation plateau" circa 1999. No major strides have been made since then, just the refinement/streamlining (which much of the time amounts to down-sizing) of already existing mechanics/capabilities (which isn't necessarily a bad thing in of itself, as games like TF2 prove).
Starsiege: Tribes was doing futuristic class-based gameplay with 128-256 player matches in huge, wide-open expanses with a full suite of vehicles and commander/command station/team bases and defense structures (which all rely on an energy source that must be defended to function) and a variety of player role customization options in 1999! Where are the successors who would take the core of this legacy and expand upon it? I don't doubt it'll happen eventually but damn, I'd have never guessed it'd have taken this long if asked at the turn of the century.
Had Tribes set the world on fire sales-wise I'm guessing the landscape of the MP FPS would look very different today. Instead it serves as another example to publishers that innovation on that scale, as incredible a game it may produce, simply isn't worth the risk.


would have a hard time arguing against that

maybe that upcoming star wars whatever the hell it is will innovate

>> ^deathcow:

How have shooters not evolved? if they haven't... can they?? I don't feel like I am playing the same game at all. I am in a giant open terrain in vehicles armed to the tooth, or I dive out and go on foot sniping from the bushes, or I plant C4 bombs and hide in the bushes waiting... or I dive off a wall and stab someone below. Quake-1 was an utterly different experience. It is evolving into very real situations from the surreal cartoon world.


The multiplayer FPS has certainly evolved since Quake. No dispute there. My contention is that they STOPPED evolving and have hit what I call an "innovation plateau" circa 1999. No major strides have been made since then, just the refinement/streamlining (which much of the time amounts to down-sizing) of already existing mechanics/capabilities (which isn't necessarily a bad thing in of itself, as games like TF2 prove).

Starsiege: Tribes was doing futuristic class-based gameplay with 128-256 player matches in huge, wide-open expanses with a full suite of vehicles and commander/command station/team bases/sensor arrays and defense structures (which all rely on an energy source that must be defended to function) and a variety of player role customization options in 1999! Where are the successors who would take the core of this legacy and expand upon it? I don't doubt it'll happen eventually but damn, I'd have never guessed it'd have taken this long if asked at the turn of the century.

Had Tribes set the world on fire sales-wise I'm guessing the landscape of the MP FPS would look very different today. Instead it serves as another example to publishers that innovation on that scale, as incredible a game it may produce, simply isn't worth the risk.

Tags for this video have been changed from 'arrested development, tobias, audition' to 'arrested development, tobias, audition, david cross, fire sale' - edited by rasch187

Can't do animated gifs for channel avatars, since they're not allowed and the backend converts all types to jpeg anyway.

Or I'm pretty sure it does, like it does with member avatars.

For sidebar content, I suggest you search youtube or vimeo for awesome slowmotion fire. Maybe a picture of that monk that put himself on fire in the vietnam war.

Oooh, and Tobias Fünke auditioning for that one part: "OMG, IT'S A FIRE... sale"

For the icon I suggest something simple and telling, like
http://www.istockphoto.com/file_thumbview_approve/4415674/2/istockphoto_4415674-flame-symbols.jpg
or
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2191/2417164282_3cedc64029.jpg
or
http://theoffutts.files.wordpress.com/2007/04/flame.jpg

If you want CSS stuff done, let me know, I'll help ya out. I never did it for talks, since I wanted to keep it nice and neat.

Yea, right.

Any real white hat knows that a system as important as this should never, ever, be centralized.

I would think it was bad equipment in disrepair.
http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2009/11/brazil/

Its not as cool as they make it look in the movies. One of the worst was the Idea of a fire sale

You know all these good weapon systems, we need to spend more time on electronic warfare,its cheaper and much more efficient. Two guys with laptops can reek alot more havoc and in most cases with out physically hurt some one. Unless, its something like a Die Hard 4 Fire Sale.

It remembers the audition scene from Arrested Development for the Fire Sale commercial