Newt,

This is in response to your comment on my statement about Biden needing to lose in '20.

I recently wrote this as a reply to one of my readers (I write under a number of different names in other places).:

Dear <name>,

>I took some time to absorb what you wrote. It's a lot to juggle. The Atlantic has an article in the July-August issue on the worst and best case scenario in CLO defaults. I'll read more.

I read the article you mentioned, and while it's certainly good, it also misses a very important point that explains the mess we're in: the collapse of Lehman and Bear-Stearns, while catastrophic in their own ways, were not the nightmare that caused the Fed to freak out in 2008 -- AIG was. Had AIG gone under and the counterparty default contracts triggered, we'd be on the barter system right now. We came within hours of not having an economy in the western world. The $700b ($.7t) the Fed coughed up to stop this from happening calmed the panic, but did nothing to resolve the underlying issues. These issues continued to compound during the 2011-2020 stock run-up and now we're at the point where the Fed is throwing trillions of dollars at every piece of bad debt they can find just to keep the whole thing from imploding into an economic black hole. It is important to note that in September '19, the credit markets started freezing because of the debt that was already on the books then, -before- CV-19 started rolling, and it took $3t just to get them unlocked again. Absolutely nothing has gotten better since then, and I would argue things have gotten dangerously worse.

In an odd coincidence, the NYT ran an article today about the looming bankruptcy crisis. They're calling for 30-60 days before things start imploding, but I'll stick to my estimate of ~90 days. There's some talk about extending the $600 benefits (we'll see) and chatter about another stimulus check, but that's kicking the can as well as telegraphing how bad things really are. When the Republicans are getting behind free money, you know we're in some uncharted territory. For all intents and purposes, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) -- the reason the Fed is backstopping debt and printing money like crazy -- is the hill the US economy will live or die on. Should the US dollar come unpegged as the world's de facto currency or should inflation begin (and there's already worrying signs this is happening), that's game over.

Please don't take anything I say as the Word of God; please do your own research and come to your own conclusions. Everything I've said is an opinion based on my education, experience and way of thinking. Your mileage may vary.

Here is the article I mentioned: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/18/business/corporate-bankruptcy-coronavirus.html -- might be paywalled, but clear your cookies for the NYT and you should be able to read it.


>Frankly, it's the physical danger in my area of the States that concerns me. There are the guns and bullying. During some BLM demonstrations in the Midwest, locals were standing around with semi-automatics. I drive a Prius for the fuel efficiency. Pick up trucks enjoy tailgating, trying to intimidate me. This behavior isn't going to change with a change of President but will get worse is we don't change. This ideological push to takeover the country instead of ruling by compromise started around the same time we came to the US in 1981, Reagan's first year. I was so shocked when I heard talk radio for the first time; this wasn't the country I had left in the 1970s.


And now we come to the giant pile of sweaty dynamite that's just waiting for the right shock to set it off. I could give you a prolonged lecture about how this all started in 1978 with California's Proposition 13, or how David Stockman's tragically prescient warnings were blatantly ignored, but Haynes Johnson does a far better job at this than I ever could in his 1991 book "Sleepwalking Through History", as does Kevin Phillips in 2006's "American Theocracy". Honestly, at this point, the prelude is academic. The reality of the situation is that a large swath of adult Americans are appalling ill-educated, innumerate and devoid of even the most basic critical-thinking skills. These people are now locked out of the Information Economy. They lack the most basic skills required to compete in the 21st century job market and thus will watch their standard of living sink into the abyss. These people are not blind to this fact because they're living with the reality of their situation every single day. They're totally without hope, cut off from all avenues of control over their own lives and they feel utterly abandoned by the very people who're supposed to be helping them. The reason you're seeing bullying and behavior like that is because these same people are totally removed from any avenues of recourse and the only people they can take their anger out on are people like you and me. Their anger is being stoked on a daily basis. FOX News and the GOP are experts at this and have a host of boogeymen to keep the anger from being pointed their way: ANTIFA, BLM (black Americans have always made a perfect target), "coastal elites" and, of course, Liberals.

Trump's election was a warning, not an outlier. Trump was the primal scream of these people and Liberals and the Democrats as a whole chose not to listen because they found the sound so abhorrent. The rage will only get worse and the number of people enveloped by this rage will only grow as economic conditions worsen. At this point, it no longer matters who wins in '20. Winning the election will be like winning the deed to the World Trade Center one second after the first jet hit. The damage has already been done and no steps are being taken to repair it; if anything, people are actively making it worse either through ideological blindness, deliberate malfeasance or outright stupidity. It took almost 50 years to get to this point and the endemic issues will not be undone in a single generation, much less a single election. Until the people who voted for Trump feel a sense of real hope, a sense of control over their lives and a genuine expectation of recourse for their grievances, they will keep right on voting for Trump, or people like him.

My unfortunate suspicion is that this country will rip itself to shreds long before those reforms are enacted.

Side note: the fundamental difference between the United States and Europe is that European history has forced the nations of Europe to live with the consequences of their actions. Not so the United States. Europe has suffered for her sins. Not so the United States. The two bloodiest wars in human history were fought on European soil. Not so the United States. The United States has never faced true suffering, nor has it ever had to live with the ramifications of its own actions. Both these facts are about to change and a nation whose character is built on a mythology of individual action and violence is going to have to face reality. The people of this nation are not prepared for this and they will not like it.

Second side note: many people are erroneously comparing the current situation to the Wiemar Republic. This is a lack of historical understanding. A more apt comparison would be to Spain in late 1935.


>As for re-opening, we could have gotten some control if the "leader" had simply donned a mask and used realistic thinking. People could go back to work more safely, wash hands, stay a certain distance. But his hubris led the way, so now we'll have a roller coaster for months and years that will affect the economy even more. France is a good comparison because they were unprepared also, having slashed the public healthcare budget for the last twenty years. But when they laid down the rules, troops patrolled the streets to be sure they were followed. So far, they've flattened the curve (for now), and used different economic incentives, such as paying part of employees' salaries to keep them employed.

At this point, the pace of re-opening is a difference between very bad and much worse. Had $3t been used to pay the yearly salary of every American, we could have saved lives and the economy, but we didn't. The history of 2020 will be littered with "what-ifs". However, the first thing you learn when studying history is that what-ifs are useless because things are what they are and you can't change that. It's already obvious we're going into a second wave. If previous pandemics are any indication of what's to come, this second wave will be many times worse than the first. The wait for a vaccine is indeterminate, but if we're going for herd immunity, ~70% of Americans will need to catch the virus. To date, ~1.5% have. If the US population is ~330 million, ~230 million will need to catch the virus. Call the mortality rate 2%, that means ~4.6 million Americans will die. That's a lot of dead Americans and grieving families.

Take care,

(my actual name)

It's not really about the ramp. He's an old rickety man, naturally he has trouble.

The problem is that he forces doctors to lie about his health, then things like this make the truth obvious.

Then he compounds lies upon lies. His skin is so thin he just can't let it go, he rambles for 10 minutes about how unfair everything is.

Remember, this is a guy born to incredible wealth, never worked a day in his life, thinks that knowing a fucking rhinoceros from a drawing is an impressive achievement, is cruel and demeaning whenever he has a chance, treats the world, and women's genitalia as his own personal playground with few repercussions, no matter how egregiously he's broken the law, rips off investors, contractors, the very country he now pretends to serve, lost billions of dollars in personal wealth while bragging about how good he is with money, had to turn to Russian lenders because US and European banks wouldn't touch him anymore, yet somehow fell ass backwards into the presidency of the US. Now he uses that position to line his own pockets, without the slightest care for those he hurts or kills in the process.

And yet... he finds life doesn't treat him fairly. He whines and complains.

You know the only time he's seemed truly sad and upset while President?

Was it when 100,000 Americans died while he made things worse?

No.

Was it when police started ramming innocent protestors and media with their vehicles, tear gassing, beating, and maiming with rubber bullets?

No.

What about when mass shootings happened on his watch, or school shootings, like Obama?

No.

He got truly publicly upset for the first time in his presidency when a disappointing number of adoring fans came to a rally.

He is so pathetic and useless, so self-serving and evil that pain, death, suffering on a scale that really hasn't been seen in the US in a very long time means nothing.

The only thing that matters is him.

Now, what were you saying about Biden?

Do you still want to do that side-by-side comparison?

Do you really think this is about a ramp?

What an absolute BS stop. With that said, people that get pulled over really need to stop trying to confront the officer(s) when shit like this happens. Nothing good is ever going to come from that, as it's highly unlikely the cop is going to admit fault or apologize. Furthermore, you are re-engaging with someone that clearly wants to give you a hard time and cops can find a reason to fine or arrest you. As much as we'd all love to rip that cop a new one, he's got a gun, pepper spray, a taser, and the backing of a gang, so in my opinion it's better to contact the media and register a complaint AFTER disengaging from the situation. When the dude in the video got out of his car I immediately thought some bad shit was going to go down...

Lyrics in case you want to sing along

Run them jewels fast, run them, run them jewels fast
Run them, run them, r-run them, run them, fuck the slow mo

Fashion slave, you protestin' to get in a fuckin' look book
Everything I scribble's like The Anarchist Cookbook
(Look good, posing in a centerfold of Crook Book)
Black on black on black with a ski mask, that is my crook look
How you like my stylin', bruh? Ain't nobody stylin', bruh
'Bout to turn this mothafucka up like Riker's Island, bruh
Where my thuggers and my cripples and my blooders and my brothers?
When you niggas gon' unite and kill the police, mothafuckas?
Or take over a jail, give those COs hell
The burnin' of the sulfur, God damn I love the smell
Blankets and pillow torchin', where the fuck the warden?
And when you find him, we don't kill him, we just waterboard him
We killin' 'em for freedom cause they tortured us for boredom
And even if some good ones die, fuck it, the Lord'll sort 'em

We out of order, your honor, you're out of order
This whole court is unimportant, you fuckers are walkin' corpses
I'm a flip wig synonym, livin' within distortion
I'll bite into a cyanide molar before you whores win
I'm a New Yorkian, I fuck for the jump
I wear my Yankee so tilted I actually walk with a hunch
Look at Mikey, I think he likey, we are sinister sons
(Aye, we the type to beat the preacher with a grin and a gun)

Run them jewels fast, run them, run them jewels fast
Run them, run them, r-run them, r-run them, run them, r-run them
Run them jewels fast, run them, run them jewels fast
Run them, run them, r-run them, r-run them, run them, r-run them

A wise man once said, ("We all dead, fuck it")
Just spit it disgusting youngin', and hold your nuts while you're gunnin'
I listened, tatted a sentence on my dick last summer
Now I'll never get that phrase off my brain, it's no wonder
I'm here to buy hearts, I got hundreds, honey
The cheaper the parts, the better buy for the money
I'm trained in vagina whisperin', glistenin'
Waitin' for their christenin', I know the neighbors can't help but listen in
A dirty boy who come down on a side of dissonance
I can't even relax without sirens off in the distances
Not shittin' you, little buddy, this fuckin' island's a prison
The only solace I have is the act of conjugal visitin'

My solitary condition's preventin' conjugal visits
Go mane and missin' my misses, they keepin' me from my children
Conditions create a villain, the villain is givin' vision
The vision becomes a vow to seek vengeance on all the vicious
Liars and politicians, profiteers of the prisons
The forehead engravers, enslavers of men and women
Includin' members of clergy that rule on you through religion
(So strippin' kids to the nude and then tell 'em God'll forgive 'em)

Run them jewels fast, run them, run them jewels fast
Run them, run them, r-run them, r-run them, run them, r-run them
Run them jewels fast, run them, run them jewels fast
Run them, run them, r-run them, r-run them, run them, r-run them

It's De La on the cut, liftin' 6 on your stitchy crew
I'm miles ahead of you, you can sip my bitches brew
My battle status is burnin' mansions from Dallas to Malibu
Check my résumé, your residence is residue
Call her a skin job and my honey dip'll backflip for you
You playin', God your eye sockets, she gon' rip in two
We sick of bleedin' out a trace, spray a victim, you
Done dyin', Phillip AK Dickin' you
With clips in the bottom, we dippin' from Gotham
Yes eclipsed by the shadows, a dark dance to the coffin
I'm a fellow with melanin, suspect of a felony
Ripped like Rakim Allah, feds is checkin' my melody
Yes aggressively tested we'll bump stretchers and penalties
Dump cases with face and the cop pleas when we seizing a pump
With reason to dump on you global grand dragons
Still pilin' fast, plus Afghani toe taggin'
Now they trackin' me and we bustin' back, see
The only thing that close quicker than our caskets be the factories

Run them jewels fast, run them, run them jewels fast
Run them, run them, r-run them, r-run them, run them, r-run them
Run them jewels fast, run them, run them jewels fast
Run them, run them, r-run them, r-run them, run them, r-run them

Self *promote the death of Tim Brooke-Taylor
No, wait, that came out wrong. RIP Tim.

My exact thoughts too. I'm mourning the death of my past image of him. RIP old Drew.

Your video, Watch Nancy Pelosi Rip Up Copy Of Donald Trump’s Speech, has made it into the Top 15 New Videos listing. Congratulations on your achievement. For your contribution you have been awarded 1 Power Point.

Skeletor can only rip 3 pages at at time.

*promote

RIP Kobe. :~(

Congratulations! Your video, Albatross-Live at the Hollywood Bowl- RIP Terry Jones, has reached the #1 spot in the current Top 15 New Videos listing. This is a very difficult thing to accomplish but you managed to pull it off. For your contribution you have been awarded 2 Power Points.

This achievement has earned you your "Golden One" Level 206 Badge!

Your video, Albatross-Live at the Hollywood Bowl- RIP Terry Jones, has made it into the Top 15 New Videos listing. Congratulations on your achievement. For your contribution you have been awarded 1 Power Point.

Wtf?! At 5:00-5:25 his drumming doesn't seem to match the sound. I think the audio is prerecorded.
RIP.

RIP Caroll Spinney.

RIP Caroll Spinney.