I think I can understand the logic that went into Palin.

She's a big hit with the Bill Kristol set, because she's young, attractive, well-spoken, has a great biography, she's not an old white man, and she's a hardline neoconservative ideologue.

She's a Karl Rove style pick with a twist -- she'll comfort the people who're devastated that Bush can't just stay President forever, plus they think she has a chance to drive a wedge into the (in their mind) deeply divided Democratic party over women's issues.

They also believe that Hillary won't come out and hit Palin with a chainsaw over issues, because they're absolutely convinced that Hillary wants Obama to lose.

So the bullet points they gain are:

• Energize the "base" of evangelicals, and social conservatives
  
• Get a press buzz to focus on this "Fresh new face", to combat Obama on that front.
  
• Appeal to socially conservative women who want a woman in the White House
  
• Be able to say "see, we're not a bunch of sexists and racists after all"
  

What they lose is:

• The ability to hammer home Obama as not being experienced enough (Palin's resume is thinner than Obama's)
  
• The ability to reinforce the importance of National Security (since Palin has 0 experience with that)
  

That has me a little concerned, because in my analysis that means that the McCain campaign is going to totally detach from issues that matter (like experience), and go into total smear-merchant mode.

They've already made the shift, since there's now a spate of ads talking about William Ayers running here in Ohio, joining the ads that just flat out lie about Obama's tax plan (saying he'll raise your taxes if you make more than $42,000, which isn't true).

I expect the RNC convention to spend the entire time driving home baseless smears about patriotism, muslim, Wright, Ayers, and maybe we'll get to hear about the guy who claimed he had gay sex with Obama from the mouths of "serious" people.

I also expect that most of the positive stuff will focus on Palin's biography, and McCain's record as a P.O.W., and only Lieberman will talk about the bipartisan stuff.

I don't know if it'll work, but that's my prediction as an armchair strategist.