The US govt last week updated the survival rates (i.e., IF infected) for Covid19:

0-19 99.997%
20-49 99.98%
50-69 99.5%
70+ 94.6%


https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Many children get cancer, and many survive. I know several. Anyone in that category is lucky, but unlucky to have had cancer in the first place. But none of the survivors I know have featured in the videos of prominent Youtubers (or any other celebrities), or received gifts of absurdly spectacular birthday parties.

I dunno. "Variably lucky" felt apt.

Im just suggesting a strategy for surviving life.

My boss has claustrophobia so bad he would not be able to watch this video after the first 2 seconds. He sweats on elevators when there is no other way up.

Myself? I don't think I could do this as sport but, may be able to do it to survive.

If the guide ahead of you died you would have to back all the way out which is a whole different challenge.

Moved this to profile pages, better late than never.

I'll try to be brief....and fail miserably I expect.
I accept the fact that some theories I hold will be wrong, and cause failure. At least theories can be tested and discarded when proven false. Yes, some are so engrained it would take TNT to dislodge them, but they aren't unchangeable, beliefs are immutable.

No morality in that claim. Moral excuses might be 1) I minimize any suffering by buying mostly family farmed meats and 2) those lives only exist for human pleasure and substance. If no one ate cows and pigs, they would be extinct nuisance animals. (And chickens rare) If the animal has a nice, pain and stress free life, but in trade that life ends early, as long as the end is humane I'm not bothered. That's life it otherwise wouldn't enjoy at all.
Factory farms don't meet those requirements.
They're tasty is why I eat meat. It might be snide, but it's honest. Yes, I'm obstinate, I like meat, I'm not claiming it the most moral, ethical, ecological, or empathetic thing to do, but if done thoughtfully it's not the worst either.

My meaning with "it's not the worst t thing people do" was to reply to " I believe (assuming humans survive) humans will look upon this time of killing billions of animals for nothing but human pleasure with disgusting disgrace." with a few other examples of things worse that we will be judged for, not to distract or excuse. I'm not sure how that's a logical falicy. Tens of Billions of animals are killed horrifically for pure greed and not even used as food, that's a disgusting disgrace I could denounce.

I read the WHO study he was referencing and it said no such thing, I told him, showed him, he kept repeating the bullshit lies. I'm not receptive to people who blatantly misrepresent science. I don't rely on any industry produced studies for any decisions, that would be dumb. The study said certain highly processed and preserved red meats had some carcinogens, not any meat at any level is equivalent to two packs a day. My degree is general science, I can read a study.

Oh shit, nutritionfacts.org is Dr Gregor, the one who outright lies about scientific studies, and the one who made the false equivalency between tiny amounts of meat and constant chain smoking, he also loved to misuse "plant based" to mean vegan and claim the studies on plant based (not plant exclusive) diets proved vegan benefits when they really proved a mixed diets benefits. I've been deep down his rabbit hole, and found him incredibly unscientific and dishonest. I don't trust him one bit, sorry.

I've only known a hand full, including the one who introduced me to Dr Gregor, my aunt, uncle, and cousins, and a few here in hippy central where I live. Not one was honest, they acted like it was religion and took statements as gospel with no investigation and were forceful in their insistence that everyone agree.

I once ate fish and thought it was fine. Three years of marine biology cured me of that, so my theories are changed by facts. I promised myself to never learn too much about chicken, pork, or beef because I don't want to know what's in them unless it's broken glass. That's a conscious decision. There is no hell hot enough to scare me away from good bacon. That said, I do care that they have a good life before being harvested.

I'm willing to change behavior and thinking. I previously thought the fda was good at protecting us, I decided I couldn't trust that.

I make some decisions based on MY morality, some on self interest, some on group/global interest, etc. I'm not willing to make any based on someone else's morality, especially if they're pushy.

I have no clue who visits, but this is where I come, so it's where I speak up.

I always make the mistake of thinking people will be logical.

Fair enough.

The one point I'd contest is that if someone is to dig their heels in upon receiving (arguably smug) contradictory remarks, I don't think that necessary indicates that they'd vote for Trump no matter what.

When you attack someone's belief that they've had for years and probably decades (i.e., their identity), it is painful and difficult to change one's belief.

A question I like to ask people who say things like what you said is, "When's the last time you admitted being incorrect to a long-held belief?" We've all been confronted with this, but how many times were you able to change your identity?

For instance, "Are you an animal-lover?" and then, the obvious vegan query, "Then why do you eat animals?" There's a pretty strong moral case for not eating animals and I would argue that it's a case that time will show to be both true and moral. I believe (assuming humans survive) humans will look upon this time of killing billions of animals for nothing but human pleasure with disgusting disgrace.

You could say that I, looking upon meat eaters, feel the same way you feel about Bob, at least in some ways.

The question is, "How does it feel? How easily are you able to change your long-held beliefs when (from my perspective) you're on the wrong side of history?" Do you find yourself recoiling? If someone came at you with not only the question, but says it in a self-congratulatory, condescending way, would you respond to that well? I wouldn't. I'd tell you to fuck off.

Give someone the facts clearly and without prejudice, and you can at least plant an earworm for them to digest later.

If you are vegan, I gotta come up with another example.

I dont subscribe to weird oriental religions which presume being born is a lottery that possibly includes trees and butterflies.

Every person is born to a set of parents into a particular time and place and socio-economic position. That is what defines who you are. You cant say "if I was born black" because that would not be you.

That is not luck, that is your starting line. You race from there, that is where YOU start rolling the dice and having good or bad luck.

You may consider yourself lucky to be who you are and where you are, indeed you may feel some first world shame for being so fortunate, but that is surely superfluous, if you have too much you can offer to help other people.

Humans (unlike newts) need preparation, after you are born you need to practice for many years before you can be let out into the wilderness of modern civilization with any hope of surviving, let alone passing tests.

You remind me of my son, he spent his childhood reading encyclopedias and now he is surprised that he knows everything and other people dont. It came easy to him.

I did not have to work hard most of the time, am doing fine, got most of what I have because I was lucky, but I sure had a lot of opportunities run away from me because I wasnt prepared for them. Also got burned by a lot of things I should have been prepared for.

Waiting for luck is good only if you run out of options to do something.

I think the supreme court agreed with me (edit: apparently I'm wrong there, they struck down that part of the law), voters sure do.

IDs cost money, so are a poll tax if they're required to vote. Make them free, you erase that argument. Then you only have to solve accessibility.

Tens of millions of Americans don't have ID. Trump thinks you need one to buy bread because he's never done it, but has also likely never needed ID either...why would he?
If you're paid in cash and can't afford to drive, who needs ID?
https://www.aclu.org/other/oppose-voter-id-legislation-fact-sheet

That's the only thing you took issue with? That's real progress. So forget the mail in vote fraud fraud, and we're agreed that universal voting would kill the Republican party and they only survive by voter suppression.

Nice of you to say, but Trumpublicans are immune to facts.

I've thought for years my discussions with Bobby aren't for him, they're to contradict his nonsense so other people don't get conned by liars. He's a total lost cause, proven when he said only stupid people tell the truth under oath if the truth might hurt them, defending Trump lying in his depositions. Anyone who supports perjury is lost.

Yes, sometimes kids who like fire need to be burned , badly, to gain respect for fire...I did. Sometimes even that doesn't teach them (my brother didn't stop making pipe bombs just because he almost blew himself up, for instance). The problem is, they usually burn down a house or two before getting burned enough themselves, maybe burning a few people to death for lack of a lesson. I say, if you see a kid playing with matches a second time, light their ass on fire in a dirt field, give them all the fire they'll ever want and then some. If they survive, they'll almost certainly quit lighting fires.

Bob is lighting fires at home with his other firebugs. None of them are concerned, none of them wants the fire out.

You know I won't click on your links since you sent me to that virus hosting site. How about name an instance and I'll investigate myself, I certainly won't trust your sources....especially when it comes from a Trump tweet. Get real, I expect another "professional opinion" like the doctor that supports hydroxy, and alien DNA in medicine, lizard people, and demon sperm as the cause of all gynecologic issues, not facts...he hates facts, they never agree with his uninformed opinion.....but he loves the uneducated, they'll believe his insane bullshit and never check for themselves.

HOLY FUCKING SHEEP SHIT YOU MORON.... I checked first then read it....it doesn't say this was fraud, much less democratic fraud, it makes no mention of political affiliation, but based on recent history chances are great that, if it's fraud, it's Republicans. How long were these few dead people dead before the election? Could they have been alive when the vote was mailed in? Doesn't say. How many cases are considered fraud by the election board? None I could see.

What it did say was many didn't receive their ballot in time to vote, or at all, because Trump and friends hobbled the mail services causing delays that suppressed thousands of votes. It also said most votes that were disqualified had issues with either the signature, something Trump claims isn't being checked, or the section for someone to deliver the ballot for the voter, something else he claimed isn't checked. Kinda blows his claim that fraud is rampant and unchecked when his evidence is the votes that didn't pass the checking they did of them. His solution, suppress tens of millions more votes. Evidence of Republican vote suppression, not democrats vote fraud.
A vote denied is a vote stolen.

This article actually makes the point that any possible vote by mail fraud will be caught, not that it's a problem.

This is Trump and friends interfering in the election by your estimation, Bob. If it's fraud because people didn't get their ballots, or they were delivered too late to count, and they didn't get them because the post office is slowing down at Trump's order, that's Trump and co. committing election fraud.

Not true, mail in ballots are exactly the same as absentee. There's never been a distinction made before this election. There are multiple states that have had universal mail in voting for decades.
There is no difference in the processes, despite what Trump and Fox have told you. They're liars, you know it. The only difference is you don't have to lie about your ability to get to a polling place with universal mail in voting. The article Trump had you link to proves it conclusively....those votes were disqualified because they did check signatures and more.
Trump's entire family votes mail in, even though they have no reason to. They're all registered in multiple states too....from what Trump says, that's proof they're committing vote fraud.

Lest you forget, the CDC stated unequivocally that mail in, not in person voting is the ONLY safe way to hold an election this year.
Lest you forget, Trump has said unequivocally that if every eligible voter voted, Republicans would disappear instantly. The ONLY way for Republicans to win is to disenfranchise millions of voters. That is why, when logic and reason say the post office should be expanding operations to prepare for weeks of high mailings, but instead they are cutting hours, removing 10%+ of their sorting capacity and removing an unknown number of mail collection boxes, already creating massive backlogs in normal mail service of weeks to months, making them incapable of fulfilling huge numbers of contracts they have which will cost them package delivery business they desperately need to survive when they should be ramping up. Only a brain dead slug can't see that's intentional, especially when Trump goes on TV and says it is, intentionally done to suppress the Democratic and independent vote because if they vote, he'll lose.

Trump refuses to fund even normal operation at the USPS because it would make delivering ballots easier.
You know he agreed to fund the post office, including money needed to greenlight universal mail in voting, if Democrats give him tens of billions for tax cuts and pet projects for himself, right? So, he's saying he will allow election fraud for a price? Or is it more likely he's willing to give up a dishonest and failing political ploy for a bribe?
You know this is tax payer money meant to fund civil services, right, not some handout? It seems you think funding essential civil services is a gift in your mind, not an obligation. So you'll stand behind Biden if he halts all funding for police and military until they get their act together, right? (Not that he plans any such thing, I'm making a point about your hypocrisy as a defense for intentional election disruption and massive voter suppression as a campaign strategy.)

The international community disagrees. When only 10% of votes are cast this election, the world will declare the election a fraud, so will 90% of Americans. Talk about dividing the nation for one man's gain. That's why we think you're Russian, Americans care more about the nation than their cult leaders.

The check and balance comes at registration, and again when the vote is counted....just like absentee votes. Trump is lying when he claims they aren't validated.

Trump disrupting mail service in any way possible to deny voters a chance to vote safely, also closing thousands of polling places (mostly in democratic leaning areas) from lack of staff IS election rigging....he has said specifically on television it is done to sway the election results by suppressing a majority of votes, leaving only the method he polls best with, unsafe in person voting which the CDC said clearly is a recipe for disaster and will kill people. He doesn't care a whit that hundreds more Americans will die and thousands be disabled because he forces them together to fulfill their civic duties, not his problem because he's mailing his vote in (so he has time to go golfing, watch TV, and tweet all day, not because he can't vote in person btw).

Here's the thing, Bob.
You were wrong. There are NOT known cases of Democrats cheating in elections in the last decade, only Republicans caught cheating thousands of times.

It's ok to be wrong if you can admit it....but you just can't. When you see you can't back up your claim, but you continue to make it, that's when you go from being duped to being a liar. I think you passed that point on this topic 7+ weeks ago.

It's ok to say you were misled, lied to. In fact, I think I can speak for most that that admission is what we all want for, and from you. Whoever told you there were known instances of Democrats cheating outright lied to you, born out by the fact that you can't find a single instance after two months of being harassed over claiming it.

You can't escape a lie until you admit it is one, something Trump has told you is bad, a sign of weakness, but that's backwards. Being unable to admit a mistake is a sign of weakness, an ego so fragile it can't survive being wrong, a lack of confidence so severe that one mistake makes a person worthless, so admitting a mistake is like suicide. That's nonsense, the kind of logic you get from clinically insecure narcissists. You deserve better.

Btw, your obsession with CNN is telling. I don't watch it, something I've told you a dozen times, but you have a pathological need to believe they're the source of anything bad about Trump. Sorry, but that source is Trump himself, not your CNN bogeyman. Nothing could make his words, actions, and plans worse that he makes them himself. He's the one doing us all wrong.

The large, windowless square structure is grain storage. It blocked some of the blast but represents a large fraction of Lebanon's grain supply.

More details from https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/08/beirut-blast-wrap-up.html#more

-------------------------%<--------------------------------%<------------------------------ RFERL spoke with the captain of the ship that had unintentionally brought the ammonium nitrate to Lebanon. He confirms the ship's arrest. It also reports the cause of the incident:

Lebanon's LBCI-TV reported on August 5 that, according to preliminary information, the fire that set off the explosion was started accidentally by welders who were closing off a gap that allowed unauthorized entry into the warehouse.

LBCI said sparks from a welder's torch are thought to have ignited fireworks stored in a warehouse, which in turn detonated the nearby cargo of ammonium nitrate that had been unloaded from the MV Rhosus years earlier.

Independent experts say orange clouds that followed the massive blast on August 4 were likely from toxic nitrogen dioxide gas that is released after an explosion involving nitrates.

There is a short video of firefighters at the initial fire. Reportedly none survived when the fireworks fire set off the ammonium nitrate. Another video shows the initial fire caused by welding. It burns a while and then sets off fireworks in a first explosion. This takes the roof off the warehouse. A few minutes later the fireworks cause the huge explosion of the ammonium nitrate.

Reuters provides another detail:

The source said a fire had started at port warehouse 9 on Tuesday and spread to warehouse 12, where the ammonium nitrate was stored.

That the ammonium nitrate was stored for seven years was not the responsibility of the port management but was caused by some judicial quarrel:

The head of Beirut port and the head of customs both said on Wednesday that several letters were sent to the judiciary asking for the dangerous material be removed, but no action was taken.

Port General Manager Hassan Koraytem told OTV the material had been put in a warehouse on a court order, adding that they knew then the material was dangerous but “not to this degree”.

“We requested that it be re-exported but that did not happen. We leave it to the experts and those concerned to determine why,” Badri Daher, director general of Lebanese Customs, told broadcaster LBCI.

Two documents seen by Reuters showed Lebanese Customs had asked the judiciary in 2016 and 2017 to request that the “concerned maritime agency” re-export or approve the sale of the ammonium nitrate, which had been removed from cargo vessel Rhosus and deposited in warehouse 12, to ensure port safety.

It's worth pointing out, part of the stimulus package was granting immunity from responsibility, criminal and civil, when schools or businesses have the inevitable outbreaks and kids or workers are permanently disabled or die. For every 20 infected, one will die, but a few will have life ruining results without dying. The administration knows this, it's why they added immunity, because most places wouldn't reopen if they were responsible for the injuries and deaths that will cause, and those that did would be sued out of existence.
We are creating a new class of disabled, destroying both their health and finances, and most won't survive their first bought of homelessness.
________________________________________________________________
JiggaJonson says...
America is in for a serious wake up call when schools don't reopen

Oh man. An aircraft headed for landing, low and slow---that's a killer event, possibly not survivable even with training.

These are hard AF even with 40lb weights, can't imagine at least tripling that and surviving. Swear you could hear his joints all crack at the last step up.