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Dethklok-Thunderhorse

NDT Explains Why 2023 Climate Models Failed

bcglorf says...

Media(and even some of the vocal scientists trying to urge action) have been guilty of overstating confidence in climate modelling. Which is more or less what they are agreeing on in the video.

The IPCC summary of state of the art climate modelling, and virtually ALL published papers on various climate models agree that the unknown and poorly modelled aspects of our climate are larger than the known influence of CO2.

That is to say, the physical modelling largely operates on energy in and out from the Sun and then playing out how changes in that energy balance operate. The thing is, that energy budget is enormous, and the number of factors at play are even larger and dynamic to make it more fun. The influence of CO2 in the energy budget is one of the relatively straightforward elements, and so we've got a pretty good and confident assessment of how much it impacts energy balance. The problem with climate modelling, is that the CO2 impact is smaller than the errors and unknowns in many other factors in the model including clouds.

Which is all saying that our climate modelling is hard, and even though we know CO2 changes are pushing the energy balance up, our modelling of the energy balance is still not good enough to accurately predict energy balance changes. That means we've got a giant 'all other things being equal' qualifier on model projections because if cloud behaviour changes based on temperature, we KNOW that our errors there are larger than the influence of CO2.

Modellers have been trying to draw attention to this nuance, but it's been deemed inconvenient to persuading the public to act and thus ignored by many pushing for action. The almost inevitable side effect though is that over time the reality of the models inaccuracy will play out and the public is gonna be asking why 'science' was wrong.

bobknight33 (Member Profile)

newtboy says...

Why did Trump need to make the hyper narcissistic “god made Trump” video?
Because he needs to because god doesn’t want Trump (proven by his constant losses)?
He puts out those videos claiming he’s the messiah and you stupidly still claim you aren’t in a cult. I won’t insult your lack of intelligence by pretending you believe the nonsense you spout…not even you are that dumb and ignorant, and that is a LOW bar.
Pretty hilariously clueless for you, or any MAGgot, to complain about fear mongering since it’s constantly and consistently been your main tactic….the world will end and you will die if you don’t vote for Trump, he’s said that. He’s also said it’s ok if you do die, as long as you vote for Trump first (or your relatives hide your death and use your vote for Trump).

bobknight33 said:

The left need to make such fear videos because Americans want Trump in 2024.

Burning Down the Haus

Steamboat Willie - First Sound Cartoon

Professor Brian Cox will make you love science

newtboy says...

Exactly why, even if you solve the going back in time problem, time travel doesn’t work.
You also need a “going back in space” solution to orient you in 3 dimensions relative to the position of everything else in the universe at the time of your time/space reinsertion, and surely that’s a more difficult problem than just the reversal of time. Without the spatial correction, any time travel would put you in deep space or inside a rock with a probability of survival so near zero as to be zero.

Jedi Mugging

Palestinian UN Ambassador At UN

bcglorf says...

"welcomed a relatively small number of European Jewish refugees in the 30’s while under British rule"
The Jewish population in Palestine approximately doubled from 84k in 1922 to 175k in 1931, and tensions already started pretty heavily then in 1931. The Arab narrative is pretty emphatic that the invasion start in the 1920s(and unspoken, the resistance and tension internally between Jew and Arab too).


"Then in the 40’s the Jewish minority, America, and England ignored their pleas to minimize immigration, ignored immigration laws, and invited a major invasion, so many European Jews came illegally..."

Come now, don't play dumb, you left out any reason why European Jews might do this outside of 'launching an invasion'. What other motive might 1940's Jewish Europeans have had to ignore immigration laws to migrate out of Europe????


That's where your narrative and mine clash irrevocably. I count the refugee flight from 1940s Europe to be even more desperate than the plight the Palestinians in Gaza face today. I can not accept your POV where upon arriving in Palestine and facing violence and discrimination there too, that it's just plain and simply obvious that the Jewish people's are invaders and bad guys with no right to an existence in the land they fled to.

You know, unless you want to credit Trump's MAGA approach to the southern border as valid cause it's awful similar, save that the Jewish people were facing much more desperate circumstances

newtboy said:

In short-The small population of Arab natives along with a native Jewish minority welcomed a relatively small number of European Jewish refugees in the 30’s while under British rule (but with a date set for their independence by the League of Nations, a date that came and went without ever establishing a Palestinian state). Then in the 40’s the Jewish minority, America, and England ignored their pleas to minimize immigration, ignored immigration laws, and invited a major invasion, so many European Jews came illegally that the Arab natives quickly became the minority, then had all rights stripped by the now well armed invaders that now claimed their land and property…invaders that kept coming by the millions. How is that not an invasion of squatters?
It’s a complete abandonment of the Palestinian Mandate the Brits ruled under, which was allowed internationally after ww1 for the sole purpose of getting Palestine in a position to rule themselves, something the Brits failed to even try then actively sabotaged by supporting the mass immigration of millions of European Jews, and was the biggest possible “fuck off and die” to the Palestinian people that had cooperated fully with the international plan for their independent future that was unceremoniously stripped from them and handed to Israel.
From that point, details don’t matter so much. Invading occupying forces don’t get to whine because the natives won’t just go away and die….at least I’m not listening when they do. Want to stop being attacked, stop murdering innocents and taking land.

I wonder why you think Israel is not so dominant seeing as they already proved repeatedly their military dominance even when their neighbors band together. Not one of the countries you mentioned has an advanced military, they are last gen at best, really two or more generations behind, and have third world resources not trillions to spend. Iraq proved that advanced weapons beat numbers hands down every single time. Unless Iran gets a nuke capable of getting through the highest levels of missile defense on the planet, their “neighbors” (Palestines allies) pose no actual threat to Israel and a pretty minor threat to the expansionist settlers invading Palestine.

I never ignored any rolls of the neighbors supporting, arming, and instigating unrest…but those roles are minuscule compared to the actions of Israel. Nothing recruits for Hamas like the Israeli army. Nothing creates more terrorists than murderous settlers. No other factor has 1% the effect that Israel’s own actions do in creating enemies.
Murderous expansionist settlers should be eliminated with prejudice immediately. They are the biggest factor driving Israel’s murderous regime to murder more innocents.
If Israel acted civilly instead of treating the natives like the Nazis treated them, its neighbors couldn’t easily convince angry teens to pick up guns and shoot Israelis. Give the Palestinians something to lose, or they’ll have nothing to lose, a chip on their shoulder, and a clear enemy responsible for their plight. This is the official recipe for a terrorist.

Blaming the neighbors is like claiming N Carolina is RESPONSIBLE for all shootings in N Y because some guns used are procured there…nonsense. They are complicit, but minimally so. It’s the shooters motives you need to look at, not the store they use. Why are they so ready to sacrifice their lives to just shoot or throw rocks AT Israel (99/100 times hitting nothing)? Because they have nothing to lose but life in an ever shrinking ghetto ruled over by a foreign racist regime that wants them just gone and is more than happy to starve children to death and bomb refugee camps to accomplish that goal.
The neighbors didn’t invade, expel, ghettoize, and gleefully murder the Palestinian people, that was Israel.

Blaming the victims is not an argument that will win many over…and no question the Palestinian people are the TRUE and only victims.

Where are the European countries now…the same ones that facilitated the Jewish invasion should be obligated to enforce the borders, and/or take the Palestinian refugees and free them from the ghetto/prison Israel keeps them in….but none are.

Side note- I keep hearing people who support Palestinians described as anti semitic. It bears noting that European Jews, the VAST majority of Israelis, are NOT Semitic…but all Palestinians are. Being pro-Israel is actually and factually anti-Semitic.

Palestinian UN Ambassador At UN

newtboy says...

In short-The small population of Arab natives along with a native Jewish minority welcomed a relatively small number of European Jewish refugees in the (edit:20’s and early) 30’s while under British rule (but with a date set for their independence by the League of Nations, a date that came and went without ever establishing a Palestinian state). Then in the 40’s (even by mid 30’s)the Jewish minority, America, and England ignored their pleas to minimize immigration, ignored immigration laws, and invited a major invasion, so many European Jews came illegally that the Arab natives quickly became the minority, then had all rights stripped by the now well armed invaders that now claimed their land and property…invaders that kept coming by the millions. How is that not an invasion of squatters?
It’s a complete abandonment of the Palestinian Mandate the Brits ruled under, which was allowed internationally after ww1 for the sole purpose of getting Palestine in a position to rule themselves, something the Brits failed to even try then actively sabotaged by supporting the mass immigration of millions of European Jews, and was the biggest possible “fuck off and die” to the Palestinian people that had cooperated fully with the international plan for their independent future that was unceremoniously stripped from them and handed to Israel.
From that point, details don’t matter so much. Invading occupying forces don’t get to whine because the natives won’t just go away and die….at least I’m not listening when they do. Want to stop being attacked, stop murdering innocents and taking land.

I wonder why you think Israel is not so dominant seeing as they already proved repeatedly their military dominance even when their neighbors band together. Not one of the countries you mentioned has an advanced military, they are last gen at best, really two or more generations behind, and have third world resources not trillions to spend. Iraq proved that advanced weapons beat numbers hands down every single time. Unless Iran gets a nuke capable of getting through the highest levels of missile defense on the planet, their “neighbors” (Palestines allies) pose no actual threat to Israel and a pretty minor threat to the expansionist settlers invading Palestine.

I never ignored any rolls of the neighbors supporting, arming, and instigating unrest…but those roles are minuscule compared to the actions of Israel. Nothing recruits for Hamas like the Israeli army. Nothing creates more terrorists than murderous settlers. No other factor has 1% the effect that Israel’s own actions do in creating enemies.
Murderous expansionist settlers should be eliminated with prejudice immediately. They are the biggest factor driving Israel’s murderous regime to murder more innocents.
If Israel acted civilly instead of treating the natives like the Nazis treated them, its neighbors couldn’t easily convince angry teens to pick up guns and shoot Israelis. Give the Palestinians something to lose, or they’ll have nothing to lose, a chip on their shoulder, and a clear enemy responsible for their plight. This is the official recipe for a terrorist.

Blaming the neighbors is like claiming N Carolina is RESPONSIBLE for all shootings in N Y because some guns used are procured there…nonsense. They are complicit, but minimally so. It’s the shooters motives you need to look at, not the store they use. Why are they so ready to sacrifice their lives to just shoot or throw rocks AT Israel (99/100 times hitting nothing)? Because they have nothing to lose but life in an ever shrinking ghetto ruled over by a foreign racist regime that wants them just gone and is more than happy to starve children to death and bomb refugee camps to accomplish that goal.
The neighbors didn’t invade, expel, ghettoize, and gleefully murder the Palestinian people, that was Israel.

Blaming the victims is not an argument that will win many over…and no question the Palestinian people are the TRUE and only victims.

Where are the European countries now…the same ones that facilitated the Jewish invasion should be obligated to enforce the borders, and/or take the Palestinian refugees and free them from the ghetto/prison Israel keeps them in….but none are.

Side note- I keep hearing people who support Palestinians described as anti semitic. It bears noting that European Jews, the VAST majority of Israelis, are NOT Semitic…but all Palestinians are. Being pro-Israel is actually and factually anti-Semitic.

Palestinian UN Ambassador At UN

newtboy says...

A reasoned and relatively factual position. Congratulations, but….
In my and many expert’s opinions the deadly indiscriminate pressure is exactly what pushes desperate and grieving innocent civilian Palestinians into Hamas’s arms. You would create two terrorists for every one caught with the inhumane treatment of the civilian population…and commit a serious war crime in the process.

Israel should abandon all expansionist settlements from the last 30 years and free the Palestinian citizens from the oppressive genocidal apartheid they’ve forced on the population for decades. That would end the conflict tomorrow, instead Israel has telegraphed its intent to take over Gaza militarily and occupy it again…and America stands by their side, but not all Americans.

If America had spent 10% of what we spend supplying Israel with weapons they use on civilians instead on building infrastructure, schools, hospitals, roads in Gaza, the Palestinians would not rightly see us as racist enemies, and might have the resources and inclination to oust Hamas. But we don’t.

Palestine gets no aid. You can’t withhold something that never existed. The reason Hamas gets any support is they do supply Gaza with food and medicine while Israel and America just embargo entire populations because a terrorist group lives in the country. Think if the world did the same, bombing cities flat and starving America because the Boogaloo Boys live in America.

Hamas is not Palestine, they’re the warlord gang that took over from the intentionally weakened Palestinian parliament and the only group supporting Palestinian civilians (while also using them as shields and cannon fodder).

Hamas fucked around, but Israel is making innocent Palestinian civilians “find out”. That’s a serious war crime that should put every Israeli soldier in prison, and get Netanyahu executed.

bobknight33 said:

Hamas took over the Gaza Strip after a brief civil war back in 2006 / 2007 . Before that Fatah was a major Palestinian political party that began in 1965 as the Palestinian National Liberation Movement. Fatah wanted to negotiate back to the 67 boundaries.

Hamas – Does not recognize Israel, but accepts a Palestinian state on 1967 borders
Fatah – Recognizes Israel, wants to build a state on 1967 borders






Israel should stop advancing and leave it to the Palestine to find and and capture Hamas.
To pressure this no aid to Palestine. Their desperation will weed out Hamas.

VLDL: When stupid NPC’s have bad AI

noims says...

My favourite thing about this was the nicely done exploding sheep. It brought back fond memories of this...



I wonder whatever happened to the guy with the chainsaw. He couldn't have gone far.

Monarch: Legacy of Monsters -- Opening Title Sequence

Marvel Studios' Echo | Official Trailer | Disney+ and Hulu

How tiny girl can escape any headlock from a man

Wonka | Trailer #2



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